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COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

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    #7592
    marno21
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,371 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    If other countries, especially counties run by leaders that a large proportion of the public in Ireland perceive as imbeciles, such as the US and the UK, get this done and return to normal before us there will be unrest in this country.

    Absolutely no excuse and no reason not to throw the kitchen sink at getting this done ASAP. It’s costing the country a small fortune and it’s demoralising the country rapidly.

    The last lockdown just in PUP payments cost half the projected cost of the Dublin MetroLink, for one 6 week lockdown!! And that’s just PUP, let alone all the other costs involved.


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    #7593
    funnydoggy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭funnydoggy


    marno21 wrote: »
    If other countries, especially counties run by leaders that a large proportion of the public in Ireland perceive as imbeciles, such as the US and the UK, get this done and return to normal before us there will be unrest in this country.

    Absolutely no excuse and no reason not to throw the kitchen sink at getting this done ASAP. It’s costing the country a small fortune and it’s demoralising the country rapidly.

    The last lockdown just in PUP payments cost half the projected cost of the Dublin MetroLink, for one 6 week lockdown!! And that’s just PUP, let alone all the other costs involved.


    Great point. I don't claim to know the logistics of things but surely they can flake these vaccines around like nobody's business sooner rather than later when other countries are doing it?


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    #7594
    Sky King
    Registered Users Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Sky King


    Russman wrote: »
    I think summer '21 is a reasonable expectation for something approaching semi normality. I also think most people accept that.
    What I'd hate to see happen or fear might happen, is that we find out Ireland is getting, say, 500k doses of vaccine per month, but we only have the capacity to distribute 100k per month. That would really p1$$ people off I think.
    I also have all my fingers and toes crossed for Summer '21. That would be awesome.

    But also awesome (in a different way) are the figures... how logistically difficult it is going to be to get two doses into a couple of million people before the summer. It's bonkers. Do we have the trained staff? The infrastructure? You're talking about 40+ people per minute, 8 hours a day, seven days a week, for months.

    I can't wait to see the plan!


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    #7595
    VonLuck
    Registered Users Posts: 2,188 ✭✭✭VonLuck


    While the speed at getting a vaccine is incredible, it's still a bit demoralising to know that we could be looking at some level of restrictions for another year. I know it's likely that they will be scaled back greatly, but I don't foresee pubs or concerts being back to normal until this time next year.

    I wonder if venues will start adopting the approach of having to prove that you're vaccinated in order to return to normal? I believe Ticketmaster were in the news about it recently. Regardless, the general population which are not in the vulnerable category or frontline workers are unlikely to be vaccinated until the latter part of next year.


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    #7596
    funnydoggy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,062 ✭✭✭funnydoggy


    Sky King wrote: »
    I also have all my fingers and toes crossed for Summer '21. That would be awesome.

    But also awesome (in a different way) are the figures... how logistically difficult it is going to be to get two doses into a couple of million people before the summer. It's bonkers. Do we have the trained staff? The infrastructure? You're talking about 40+ people per minute, 8 hours a day, seven days a week, for months.

    I can't wait to see the plan!




    Private companies could help.


    Boots have the infrastructure and capacity to roll out Moderna shots for example.


    I wonder will the HSE reach out.


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    #7597
    Russman
    Registered Users Posts: 5,861 ✭✭✭Russman


    Sky King wrote: »
    I also have all my fingers and toes crossed for Summer '21. That would be awesome.

    But also awesome (in a different way) are the figures... how logistically difficult it is going to be to get two doses into a couple of million people before the summer. It's bonkers. Do we have the trained staff? The infrastructure? You're talking about 40+ people per minute, 8 hours a day, seven days a week, for months.

    I can't wait to see the plan!

    Absolutely.
    Maybe I'm too optimistic or hopeful, it'll probably be autumn rather than summer, but if we can dish out the vaccine at the same rate as we can test, it would be super. What is it, about 12,000 tests per day we can do ? That number of vaccinations would put a big dent in it after a couple of months.

    I do think that, given the borrowing we're doing for the lockdown supports (which I've no issue with as long as Europe stays on the same page), an extra billion to really throw the kitchen sink at vaccinations, would be well spent.

    I think the optics are also important, if we're seen to be doing as good a job as we can, the public will buy in and accept its not going to be an overnight thing. If we're perceived as dragging our heels, patience will wear thin.


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    #7598
    Sky King
    Registered Users Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Sky King


    As someone else said above, the population would be rightly fcuked off if the likes of France and Germany were sailing ahead with their rollout, and we were muddling around trying to get the job done.

    Politically, there's a lot to be gained from doing this right, so I'd say its in their interests up in Kildare street to make this work.


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    #7599
    Van.Bosch
    Registered Users Posts: 2,862 ✭✭✭Van.Bosch


    Sky King wrote: »
    As someone else said above, the population would be rightly fcuked off if the likes of France and Germany were sailing ahead with their rollout, and we were muddling around trying to get the job done.

    Politically, there's a lot to be gained from doing this right, so I'd say its in their interests up in Kildare street to make this work.

    Economically too.


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    #7600
    Gael23
    Registered Users Posts: 12,094 ✭✭✭✭Gael23


    funnydoggy wrote: »
    Private companies could help.


    Boots have the infrastructure and capacity to roll out Moderna shots for example.


    I wonder will the HSE reach out.

    They wouldn’t be doing it out of the goodness of their hearts though. They would want a fee per patient for administering the vaccine


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    #7601
    Pasteur.
    Closed Accounts Posts: 256 ✭✭Pasteur.


    Is it possible were overly dependent on a vaccine to get us out of this?

    When the next virus comes along we're back to a primitive lockdown setup and waiting for another vaccine

    Vietnam has had virtually no cases in 6 months without a vaccine.
    Presumably they have an advanced Track and Trace system and will fare much better next time around


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    #7602
    ixoy
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 17,990 Mod ✭✭✭✭ixoy


    marno21 wrote: »
    Absolutely no excuse and no reason not to throw the kitchen sink at getting this done ASAP.
    No logical excuse but then you remember you're dealing with the HSE. They'll probably want a manager recruited for every second person administering the vaccine and stall until some overwrought multi-tiered org chart is in place.


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    #7603
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    VonLuck wrote: »
    While the speed at getting a vaccine is incredible, it's still a bit demoralising to know that we could be looking at some level of restrictions for another year. I know it's likely that they will be scaled back greatly, but I don't foresee pubs or concerts being back to normal until this time next year.

    I wonder if venues will start adopting the approach of having to prove that you're vaccinated in order to return to normal? I believe Ticketmaster were in the news about it recently. Regardless, the general population which are not in the vulnerable category or frontline workers are unlikely to be vaccinated until the latter part of next year.
    It shouldn't be most of the year, till March anyway, and as for venues, not sure that would be legal that would be here as it's up to them to ensure it's safe for everyone.


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    #7604
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Gael23 wrote: »
    They wouldn’t be doing it out of the goodness of their hearts though. They would want a fee per patient for administering the vaccine

    And they should get it. What’s a few euro to Boots in the context of all spent so far


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    #7605
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Pasteur. wrote: »
    Is it possible were overly dependent on a vaccine to get us out of this?

    When the next virus comes along we're back to a primitive lockdown setup and waiting for another vaccine

    Vietnam has had virtually no cases in 6 months without a vaccine.
    Presumably they have an advanced Track and Trace system and will fare much better next time around
    Vaccines have got us out of TB, whooping cough deaths, polio and smallpox so what's your plan? Few human viruses just go away. Vietnam have a strict quarantine protocol so not normal.


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    #7606
    Marhay70
    Registered Users Posts: 1,913 ✭✭✭Marhay70


    brisan wrote: »
    There are more people in our hospitals with covid who went into hospital without covid than those that went into hospital with covid
    Covid free hospitals ,daily tests for all HCW and nursing home residents, its not rocket science
    .

    Listening to Pat Kenny this morning they were interviewing people in the queue to get into Penneys in Blanchardstown, one of those interviewed said she was a health care assistant in St James. She was making all the right noises about shopping early to avoid crowds. face masks, social distancing etc but I couldn't help thinking I wouldn't be very happy if I had a vulnerable relative under her care.


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    #7607
    AdamD
    Registered Users Posts: 12,487 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    Marhay70 wrote: »
    .

    Listening to Pat Kenny this morning they were interviewing people in the queue to get into Penneys in Blanchardstown, one of those interviewed said she was a health care assistant in St James. She was making all the right noises about shopping early to avoid crowds. face masks, social distancing etc but I couldn't help thinking I wouldn't be very happy if I had a vulnerable relative under her care.

    Find this a bit amusing, so you expect your health care workers to take the brunt of being on the frontline, at the most danger of catching the virus, but then to also shutdown all social activity outside of this?


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    #7608
    hmmm
    Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Pasteur. wrote: »
    Is it possible were overly dependent on a vaccine to get us out of this?

    When the next virus comes along we're back to a primitive lockdown setup and waiting for another vaccine

    Vietnam has had virtually no cases in 6 months without a vaccine.
    Presumably they have an advanced Track and Trace system and will fare much better next time around
    Hopefully we won't be caught out so badly next time. I think we've had 3 new coronavirus in the past 20 years, we'll surely get another - and next time could be the one with the 40% death rate.

    I still think the West will be more inclined to invest in science based solutions rather than public health as it's just easier to do this where you have an emphasis on individual rights.

    No doubt there's going to be spare manufacturing capacity to get a new mRNA vaccine out the door very fast the next time we need it. Also I expect lots of investment in testing. The military in the US in particular will put a lot of resources into this, they've had aircraft carriers out of action because of this and the entire chain of command at risk when Trump got infected.


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    #7609
    lbj666
    Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭lbj666


    Pasteur. wrote: »
    Is it possible were overly dependent on a vaccine to get us out of this?

    When the next virus comes along we're back to a primitive lockdown setup and waiting for another vaccine

    Vietnam has had virtually no cases in 6 months without a vaccine.
    Presumably they have an advanced Track and Trace system and will fare much better next time around

    Vietnam is still a communist state when it wants to be


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    #7610
    Marhay70
    Registered Users Posts: 1,913 ✭✭✭Marhay70


    AdamD wrote: »
    Find this a bit amusing, so you expect your health care workers to take the brunt of being on the frontline, at the most danger of catching the virus, but then to also shutdown all social activity outside of this?

    No, but I expect them to show responsibility. The advice all along to avoid covid has been to stay away from crowded places and as we saw after the last lockdown was lifted, Penneys is not the place to do that. There are lots of places to get knickers and pyjamas, (her shopping list) including online.


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    #7611
    VonLuck
    Registered Users Posts: 2,188 ✭✭✭VonLuck


    is_that_so wrote: »
    It shouldn't be most of the year, till March anyway, and as for venues, not sure that would be legal that would be here as it's up to them to ensure it's safe for everyone.

    What makes you think that? From what I've heard in the news so far they're only expecting a million people to be vaccinated by the end of the summer. That's not enough to eliminate social distancing or other restrictions.


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    #7612
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    VonLuck wrote: »
    What makes you think that? From what I've heard in the news so far they're only expecting a million people to be vaccinated by the end of the summer. That's not enough to eliminate social distancing or other restrictions.
    Donnelly says March for 1m vaccinated and you can leave out most kids, which is another 1m. We need about 3.5m for 70% but even at 50% and rising, cases should begin to fall away quite quickly.


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    #7613
    marno21
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,371 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Donnelly says March for 1m vaccinated and you can leave out most kids, which is another 1m. We need about 3.5m for 70% but even at 50% and rising, cases should begin to fall away quite quickly.

    If we have 1 million of the most vulnerable vaccinated this becomes a completely different kettle of fish. The hospitalisation rate will be well under 1% and by March we will hopefully be able deploy the Oxford vaccine which won’t have the scarcity issue.

    I hope they are getting ready for a mass vaccination of less at risk groups at the end of Q1, early Q2 with Oxford and maybe J&J which will have bigger supply. We’ll have this killed by the middle/end of Q2 then.


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    #7614
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    marno21 wrote: »
    If we have 1 million of the most vulnerable vaccinated this becomes a completely different kettle of fish. The hospitalisation rate will be well under 1% and by March we will hopefully be able deploy the Oxford vaccine which won’t have the scarcity issue.

    I hope they are getting ready for a mass vaccination of less at risk groups at the end of Q1, early Q2 with Oxford and maybe J&J which will have bigger supply. We’ll have this killed by the middle/end of Q2 then.
    With 3 vaccines imminent, all of this is possible. I agree on the high risk categories, it should make a big difference.


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    #7615
    VonLuck
    Registered Users Posts: 2,188 ✭✭✭VonLuck


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Donnelly says March for 1m vaccinated and you can leave out most kids, which is another 1m. We need about 3.5m for 70% but even at 50% and rising, cases should begin to fall away quite quickly.

    Did he say that recently? I only heard about 1 million by the end of summer a couple of days ago. Might have been updated since.


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    #7616
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    VonLuck wrote: »
    Did he say that recently? I only heard about 1 million by the end of summer a couple of days ago. Might have been updated since.
    Yeah, he was on radio over the weekend. I'd like to hope he's right in his claim but it'll probably all depend on the speed of rollout and supplies.


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    #7617
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Piece on how the US plan to roll it out. Apart from the obvious, all a bit vague!
    The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices will issue guidance on Tuesday to states, which will then choose which residents get jabs first. The panel is expected to prioritise the elderly and healthcare workers.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55149138

    Meanwhile, it seems the French are also looking at early in the New Year.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/1201/1181698-france-covid-vacination/


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    #7618
    gw80
    Registered Users Posts: 1,019 ✭✭✭gw80


    Gael23 wrote: »
    They wouldn’t be doing it out of the goodness of their hearts though. They would want a fee per patient for administering the vaccine
    And don't forget, BAM will want another couple of hundred million euros,


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    #7619
    St.Spodo
    Registered Users Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭St.Spodo


    There are 696,000 people over the age of 65 in Ireland and this cohort have made up 92% of coronavirus deaths. If this group are vaccinated within the next 3-4 months, we should be able to ease restrictions substantially ahead of mass vaccination in the summer months.


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    #7620
    braychelsea
    Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 55 ✭✭braychelsea


    St.Spodo wrote: »
    There are 696,000 people over the age of 65 in Ireland and this cohort have made up 92% of coronavirus deaths. If this group are vaccinated within the next 3-4 months, we should be able to ease restrictions substantially ahead of mass vaccination in the summer months.

    I'd imagine the majority of deaths under that age group are from the vulnerable population as well. Both these groups together are around 1 million people and account for 98+% of the deaths, meaning by March we could pretty much extinguish the death rate.


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    #7621
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    463 people vaccinated every 15 mins ,12 hrs a day for 6 months would vaccinate
    4 million people
    If it needs 2 doses then that’s 926 doses every 15 mins
    So 1000 medically trained people or 2000 to allow for shift working
    It can be done if the will is there but I doubt the HSE has the ability


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