Level 5 lockdown essentially failed

Halenvaneddie · 01-12-2020 2:11pm

Sure we have the vaccine now

GhostyMcGhost · 01-12-2020 2:15pm

kaahooters wrote: »

if people will get vaccinated, thats the next issue.

Don’t get vaccinated, fair enough... but end up in doctors for covid related illness or need a test, then you foot the bill yourself for consultation, test etc

Plumbthedepths · 01-12-2020 2:17pm

GhostyMcGhost wrote: »

Don’t get vaccinated, fair enough... but end up in doctors for covid related illness or need a test, then you foot the bill yourself for consultation, test etc

There are people who will not be able to take a vaccine and what's a Covid related illness?

Thats me · 01-12-2020 2:38pm

Tork wrote: »

Could you imagine the howling from many of the posters here if the above were to happen. They'd require sedation!

Short term imprisonment would have same effect with lesser risk of addiction.

Larbre34 · 01-12-2020 2:42pm

We won't see the full effect of Level 5 for maybe another fortnight, just like we didn't see the Level 3 effect until we were well into Level 5.

Last nights case numbers included approx a 100 case backlog. Numbers will likely drop to ~100 before rising again slowly from the effects of the next 4 weeks.

xhomelezz · 01-12-2020 2:48pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The goal of the level 5 lockdown was to reduce the cases to about 50 per day so we could reopen.
Unfortunately yesterday we had 300 cases and are nowhere close to 50 a day.

Now of course it did help to an extent. Cases have reduced from about 1000+ to 250 - 300 ish. But we have to consider the social and economic impact on society as well.

Based on what we’ve seen, if we return to level 5 in January, what evidence is there to suggest it will even work?

If we do rise to 1000+ cases a day in Jan, how many months of level 5 would be needed to get back towards 0, which seems to be our goal. Would it even be sustainable?

Do you think cases will remain lower with more social outlets open and more controlled environments?

If months of level 5 is the only solution until everybody is vaccinated, I think we are f*cked.
I predict there will be huge backlash against lockdowns next year.

Thoughts?

What lockdown?

lak · 01-12-2020 3:00pm

talulon wrote: »

Only 6.31% of the cases come from those kids in school, if you are going to post random data at least spend some time educating yourself.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19%20Daily%20epidemiology%20report%20(NPHET)_20201130_website.pdf

Biggest percentage of cases come from people age 15-64.

There are plenty of 15 yr olds in schools around the country,possibly bringing it home and infecting older siblings and parents.

didyoufart? · 01-12-2020 3:13pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The goal of the level 5 lockdown was to reduce the cases to about 50 per day so we could reopen.
Unfortunately yesterday we had 300 cases and are nowhere close to 50 a day.

Now of course it did help to an extent. Cases have reduced from about 1000+ to 250 - 300 ish. But we have to consider the social and economic impact on society as well.

Based on what we’ve seen, if we return to level 5 in January, what evidence is there to suggest it will even work?

If we do rise to 1000+ cases a day in Jan, how many months of level 5 would be needed to get back towards 0, which seems to be our goal. Would it even be sustainable?

Do you think cases will remain lower with more social outlets open and more controlled environments?

If months of level 5 is the only solution until everybody is vaccinated, I think we are f*cked.
I predict there will be huge backlash against lockdowns next year.

Thoughts?

The goal of level 5 was not to get to 50 cases a day, it was to keep hospitals manageable and not overloaded and keep the most vulnerable protected.

If they really wanted to get down to 50 cases a day schools would be shut.

We have no idea of when students in education get infected if they pass it onto their parents or siblings and parents and siblings pass onto other people.

There's no point of getting it down to 50 either because when you open everything back up cases will soar again to 1500.

Also there's probably 1000s of asytomatic people walking around.

The Belly · 01-12-2020 3:22pm

lak wrote: »

There are plenty of 15 yr olds in schools around the country,possibly bringing it home and infecting older siblings and parents.

52 deaths up till Nov for those under 55. It doesn't say if there were underlying conditions as it doesn't break it down further. However

In 2019 421 death were suicides.
The figures show that 90 people who died from suicide last year were aged between 35 and 44 years old, 78 were aged between 45 and 54

There were 148 road fatalities in 2019
They don't breakdown the age group but I'm sure for those under 55's it was higher than covid deaths.

The above are just a couple of examples the numbers from Heart diseases stroke Cancer etc. would be much higher.

Covid needs to be put into perspective.

Unless the parents are in the high-risk category the risk is very very low.

zerosugarbuzz · 01-12-2020 3:35pm

didyoufart? wrote: »

The goal of level 5 was not to get to 50 cases a day, it was to keep hospitals manageable and not overloaded and keep the most vulnerable protected.

If they really wanted to get down to 50 cases a day schools would be shut.

We have no idea of when students in education get infected if they pass it onto their parents or siblings and parents and siblings pass onto other people.

There's no point of getting it down to 50 either because when you open everything back up cases will soar again to 1500.

Also there's probably 1000s of asytomatic people walking around.

There probably are thousands walking around asymptomatic and does it matter at all Once the death rate Remains low? I think not. The whole thing is just one big global over reaction that is going to super line the big pharmaceutical companies pockets for years to come.

01-12-2020 3:39pm

talulon wrote: »

Only 6.31% of the cases come from those kids in school, if you are going to post random data at least spend some time educating yourself.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19%20Daily%20epidemiology%20report%20(NPHET)_20201130_website.pdf

Biggest percentage of cases come from people age 15-64.

It's a bigger number of people.

01-12-2020 3:40pm

talulon wrote: »

Only 6.31% of the cases come from those kids in school, if you are going to post random data at least spend some time educating yourself.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19%20Daily%20epidemiology%20report%20(NPHET)_20201130_website.pdf

Biggest percentage of cases come from people age 15-64.

The big picture is not how many kids are sick, but how many are sick because they have kids in their house

Nermal · 01-12-2020 3:50pm

average_runner wrote: »

If we don't do lockdown and the virus gets out of control, where do we draw the line?

We opened things up and people took the piss, ie GAA clubs for example.

Its all about attitude, if we have the correct attitude we can open up

Comical stuff.

"We can open up, so long as you don't act like we have opened up".

GreeBo · 01-12-2020 3:54pm

atr2002 wrote: »

I was surprised they cited kids mental health as a reason not to close schools.

If they had of extended the Halloween hols a week either side of the break and the same with Christmas, id wager the numbers would plummet, as looking to my previous post, the age profile getting infected being 35 to 45 being parents of primary school kids

I think you are mixing correlation and causation there.
35-45 year olds are most likely to have new cars....do you think new cars are spreading COVID?

GhostyMcGhost · 01-12-2020 4:53pm

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

There are people who will not be able to take a vaccine and what's a Covid related illness?

Obviously there are people who are not able to vaccinate and I'm not referring to those

When I say covid related illness, I mean brought to hospital with breathing difficulties, requiring ICU or a ventilator, that sort of thing

If people dont want to vaccinate because facebook said so, then we simply as a country cannot afford to pay their healthcare if they end up critically ill over it when there's a vaccine that can prevent* you getting it

* depending on vaccine effectiveness

Plumbthedepths · 01-12-2020 4:58pm

GhostyMcGhost wrote: »

Obviously there are people who are not able to vaccinate and I'm not referring to those

When I say covid related illness, I mean brought to hospital with breathing difficulties, requiring ICU or a ventilator, that sort of thing

If people dont want to vaccinate because facebook said so, then we simply as a country cannot afford to pay their healthcare if they end up critically ill over it when there's a vaccine that can prevent* you getting it

* depending on vaccine effectiveness

You could say the same about obese people or others who live an unhealthy or dangerous lifestyle.

miece16 · 01-12-2020 5:00pm

GhostyMcGhost wrote: »

Obviously there are people who are not able to vaccinate and I'm not referring to those

When I say covid related illness, I mean brought to hospital with breathing difficulties, requiring ICU or a ventilator, that sort of thing

If people dont want to vaccinate because facebook said so, then we simply as a country cannot afford to pay their healthcare if they end up critically ill over it when there's a vaccine that can prevent* you getting it

* depending on vaccine effectiveness

as much as you would like that, that's not how it works

GhostyMcGhost · 01-12-2020 6:09pm

miece16 wrote: »

as much as you would like that, that's not how it works

Well how else do you address it? G’OD and JW etc get to spread all the rubbish they like across social media platforms and throughout this pandemic a lot of people have fallen for their bull simply because they’ve been tired of it all.

If people have their reasons, fair enough but we should not pay for it with prolonged lockdowns and restrictions, or indeed more borrowing...

I suppose in reality it’s like a drug dealer getting shot, won’t be refused entry to A&E but it’s still a load of balls. We need to educate people but unfortunately we’ve failed so miserably in this over the years as our default answer has been tax it (smokes, alcohol, obesity, transport)

Beasty · 01-12-2020 6:14pm

copeyhagen wrote: »

the health service was never under any threat.

Yep. All the restrictions have worked on that front.

is_that_so · 01-12-2020 6:18pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Well yes, if the level 5 is half arsed. Schools open? Not L5.

Schools are outside even Level 10 and would only be closed in really dire circumstances. HSE data say they are at a much lower risk. As for the Level 5 it has done some work, R0 below zero, positivity back to about 2% and 7 & 14 day rates among the lowest in Europe. Sure, we didn't hit the preferred range of 50-100 cases a day but we've shown that we can protect at risk populations and manage the disease.

ednwireland · 01-12-2020 6:23pm

is_that_so wrote: »

but we've shown that we can protect at risk populations and manage the disease.

and destroy the economy

bb1234567 · 01-12-2020 6:29pm

Well it was never realistic. Our excess deaths have now dropped below what we see during normal years and we are one of the only countries in Europe with below average excess deaths this Autumn. What the hell else matters? Cases mean nothing if it doesn't translate to deaths, surely that is what we are trying to stop, we have dropped cases to the level that it causes no excess deaths. They're overreaching but I think the lockdown was a success, just the stated goal was misled

I guess the only valid worry is that the more cases there are in the community the faster it will grow back to levels where it causes high excess deaths when restrictions ease

is_that_so · 01-12-2020 6:30pm

ednwireland wrote: »

and destroy the economy

Some sectors have been very badly hit, predictably so. Most of the rest of it is in cold storage. That would be the virus itself anyway - we had absolutely no choice in March.

faceman · 02-12-2020 9:30am

Level 5 got cases down to some of the lowest in Europe. Its only temporary of course, but it put us in a good place.

But that depends on what you got a good place.

So many people were pushed on to PUP, businesses folded and now it looks like with "wet" pubs set to remain closed till we have a vaccine, many of them will fold too. High street retail is on the verge or either collapse or restructure and mental health issues have increased significantly.

We dont have a detailed vaccine plan for Ireland yet but looking at Spain, they have said their vaccine plan will be a 15 stage process and take 9 months from January to September. They also said that masks and social distancing will have to remain a measure for Winter 2021 as we assess how long immunity lasts.

No one is afraid of the virus anymore so the more lockdown measures Ireland tries to use, the weaker a measure it becomes.

If we are looking at lockdown 3.0 come January, it may be the chocolate teapot of lockdowns.

Boggles · 02-12-2020 9:45am

faceman wrote: »

Level 5 got cases down to some of the lowest in Europe. Its only temporary of course, but it put us in a good place.

But that depends on what you got a good place.

So many people were pushed on to PUP, businesses folded and now it looks like with "wet" pubs set to remain closed till we have a vaccine, many of them will fold too. High street retail is on the verge or either collapse or restructure and mental health issues have increased significantly.

We dont have a detailed vaccine plan for Ireland yet but looking at Spain, they have said their vaccine plan will be a 15 stage process and take 9 months from January to September. They also said that masks and social distancing will have to remain a measure for Winter 2021 as we assess how long immunity lasts.

No one is afraid of the virus anymore so the more lockdown measures Ireland tries to use, the weaker a measure it becomes.

If we are looking at lockdown 3.0 come January, it may be the chocolate teapot of lockdowns.

Surely if you are trying to gauge our performance on how good or bad of a place we are in you have to weigh up the positives with the negatives.

Your post is heavily laden-ed with negatives with sprinklings of supposition.

votecounts · 02-12-2020 9:59am

The thing that really worries me is the rollout of the vaccine, do people honestly believe that FF and FG won't make a mess of this as I wouldn't trust them to organise a piss up in a brewery. I really hope it all works out and we can get back to normality. I have not really been affected by it financially but to be on PUP or educed wages must be terrible for some people at this time of year.

average_runner · 02-12-2020 10:40am

Deleted User wrote: »

That's very selective figures. How many other than the children? In their families etc. What about the school in cork?

It wasn't picked up in the school, it was brought into the school by the families of the kids.

I give you load more examples of virus low in schools.

The cork one is a good example, how did the virus get into the school?
Has anyone identified the kids spread it around the school or did it comes from the homes?

We need this information before we make conclusions

rob316 · 02-12-2020 10:58am

votecounts wrote: »

The thing that really worries me is the rollout of the vaccine, do people honestly believe that FF and FG won't make a mess of this as I wouldn't trust them to organise a piss up in a brewery. I really hope it all works out and we can get back to normality. I have not really been affected by it financially but to be on PUP or educed wages must be terrible for some people at this time of year.

Alan Kelly wouldn't let it rest yesterday in the Dail that we need a minister appointed to oversee the rollout, he knows Donnelly isn't up to the task and I'm sure Leo and Martin can see that too.

Boggles · 02-12-2020 11:09am

rob316 wrote: »

Alan Kelly wouldn't let it rest yesterday in the Dail that we need a minister appointed to oversee the rollout, he knows Donnelly isn't up to the task and I'm sure Leo and Martin can see that too.

Martin just torpedoed the idea.

I can't see any benefit TBH, just another ministry with all the associates layers of fat that comes with it.

Kelly is just trying to make himself relevant, he was obviously watching Sky News over the weekend, the Brits have appointed one and he decided he needed to get back on the radio.

landofthetree · 03-12-2020 11:03am

Deleted User wrote: »

I will refer you to the best answer to your assertion on the other thread which you duly ignored

All wishful thinking.

It's obvious that cases will be over 1000 a day by Jan.

Level 5 lockdown essentially failed

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