Level 5 lockdown essentially failed

copeyhagen

Beasty wrote: »

Maybe OP we should have left things as they were. Then we could be staring down the barrel now and perhaps be looking forward to another 6 months of lockdiwn

Now I think there could have been something closer to Level 4, but I'm not going to criticise when they brought down the level of infections and the health service is still coping

the health service was never under any threat.

Tork

It doesn't do well most winters when the flu hits.

GT89

The government are making up their levels system as they go along. Last time we were on Level 3 restaurants were outdoor only now indoors is permitted but it's still Level 3 and not Level 2. Is the whole purpose of the level system just to scare people Level 3 sounds scarier than Level 2 and Level 5 sounds scarier than Level 4.

But under all levels the plan appears to tinkered and changed from what was originally set out.

DSN

John O.Groats wrote: »

As have those who have a vested interest in wanting the wet pubs to reopen. Education is far more important than getting scuttered in a pub.

Literally everyone has a vested interest in something for different reasons, don't think anyone is completely selfless in this, just some may think their reason more noble than others. Be it 'its my livelyhood', 'my kids need their education' or 'I or family member vulnerable so lockdown until it's gone one way or another'.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Well yes, if the level 5 is half arsed. Schools open? Not L5.

Spot on. It was level 5 in name alone.

Thats me

Deleted User wrote: »

how many months of level 5 would be needed to get back towards 0, which seems to be our goal. Would it even be sustainable?

Proper lockdown would take 3-5 weeks, i think.

When i writing "proper" i mean:

• Closing everything what can be closed
• Self isolation - no public gatherings etc
• Mass testing
• Isolation of all identified cases
• Entering any public places only after passing the test
• Curfew
• Regular desinfection of public places, even outside
• Isolated camps for children where they would live all the time with their teachers
• Same about nursing homes - homes should be isolated with staff inside
• Replacing all appliances in public places by touch-less alternatives
• Closing all shops, leaving only these providing internet shopping with touch-less delivery
• ...
• Strict enforcement of all measures

No pain - no gain.

In return we would have suppressed many other infections, drop in sick leaves and more efficient economics.

With weak lockdowns we will only have series of disturbances with no significant achievements. And this is not only about this pandemic. World getting overpopulated very fast, new pandemiсs will appear more often and be spread faster, on some stage current economical confrontation can transform to biological war.. It is better to be prepared and having working methods to protect the country than be left unprepared, having no idea what we do next time, especially having spend all money on non-working lockdowns 20-21 y.y.

Tork

Could you imagine the howling from many of the posters here if the above were to happen. They'd require sedation!

hmmm

If you thought Level 5 failed, you should have seen the alternative.

Plumbthedepths

Tork wrote: »

Could you imagine the howling from many of the posters here if the above were to happen. They'd require sedation!

No sedation required as what was suggested will never happen. It's essentially Zero Covid which was never a runner here, although Thomas Ryan and his mates never got the memo.

Plumbthedepths

hmmm wrote: »

If you thought Level 5 failed, you should have seen the alternative.

Can you turn on your crystal ball and tell us?

Halenvaneddie

Sure we have the vaccine now

GhostyMcGhost

kaahooters wrote: »

if people will get vaccinated, thats the next issue.

Don’t get vaccinated, fair enough... but end up in doctors for covid related illness or need a test, then you foot the bill yourself for consultation, test etc

Plumbthedepths

GhostyMcGhost wrote: »

Don’t get vaccinated, fair enough... but end up in doctors for covid related illness or need a test, then you foot the bill yourself for consultation, test etc

There are people who will not be able to take a vaccine and what's a Covid related illness?

Thats me

Tork wrote: »

Could you imagine the howling from many of the posters here if the above were to happen. They'd require sedation!

Short term imprisonment would have same effect with lesser risk of addiction.

Larbre34

We won't see the full effect of Level 5 for maybe another fortnight, just like we didn't see the Level 3 effect until we were well into Level 5.

Last nights case numbers included approx a 100 case backlog. Numbers will likely drop to ~100 before rising again slowly from the effects of the next 4 weeks.

xhomelezz

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The goal of the level 5 lockdown was to reduce the cases to about 50 per day so we could reopen.
Unfortunately yesterday we had 300 cases and are nowhere close to 50 a day.

Now of course it did help to an extent. Cases have reduced from about 1000+ to 250 - 300 ish. But we have to consider the social and economic impact on society as well.

Based on what we’ve seen, if we return to level 5 in January, what evidence is there to suggest it will even work?

If we do rise to 1000+ cases a day in Jan, how many months of level 5 would be needed to get back towards 0, which seems to be our goal. Would it even be sustainable?

Do you think cases will remain lower with more social outlets open and more controlled environments?

If months of level 5 is the only solution until everybody is vaccinated, I think we are f*cked.
I predict there will be huge backlash against lockdowns next year.

Thoughts?

What lockdown?

lak

talulon wrote: »

Only 6.31% of the cases come from those kids in school, if you are going to post random data at least spend some time educating yourself.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19%20Daily%20epidemiology%20report%20(NPHET)_20201130_website.pdf

Biggest percentage of cases come from people age 15-64.

There are plenty of 15 yr olds in schools around the country,possibly bringing it home and infecting older siblings and parents.

didyoufart?

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The goal of the level 5 lockdown was to reduce the cases to about 50 per day so we could reopen.
Unfortunately yesterday we had 300 cases and are nowhere close to 50 a day.

Now of course it did help to an extent. Cases have reduced from about 1000+ to 250 - 300 ish. But we have to consider the social and economic impact on society as well.

Based on what we’ve seen, if we return to level 5 in January, what evidence is there to suggest it will even work?

If we do rise to 1000+ cases a day in Jan, how many months of level 5 would be needed to get back towards 0, which seems to be our goal. Would it even be sustainable?

Do you think cases will remain lower with more social outlets open and more controlled environments?

If months of level 5 is the only solution until everybody is vaccinated, I think we are f*cked.
I predict there will be huge backlash against lockdowns next year.

Thoughts?

The goal of level 5 was not to get to 50 cases a day, it was to keep hospitals manageable and not overloaded and keep the most vulnerable protected.

If they really wanted to get down to 50 cases a day schools would be shut.

We have no idea of when students in education get infected if they pass it onto their parents or siblings and parents and siblings pass onto other people.

There's no point of getting it down to 50 either because when you open everything back up cases will soar again to 1500.

Also there's probably 1000s of asytomatic people walking around.

The Belly

lak wrote: »

There are plenty of 15 yr olds in schools around the country,possibly bringing it home and infecting older siblings and parents.

52 deaths up till Nov for those under 55. It doesn't say if there were underlying conditions as it doesn't break it down further. However

In 2019 421 death were suicides.
The figures show that 90 people who died from suicide last year were aged between 35 and 44 years old, 78 were aged between 45 and 54

There were 148 road fatalities in 2019
They don't breakdown the age group but I'm sure for those under 55's it was higher than covid deaths.

The above are just a couple of examples the numbers from Heart diseases stroke Cancer etc. would be much higher.

Covid needs to be put into perspective.

Unless the parents are in the high-risk category the risk is very very low.

zerosugarbuzz

didyoufart? wrote: »

The goal of level 5 was not to get to 50 cases a day, it was to keep hospitals manageable and not overloaded and keep the most vulnerable protected.

If they really wanted to get down to 50 cases a day schools would be shut.

We have no idea of when students in education get infected if they pass it onto their parents or siblings and parents and siblings pass onto other people.

There's no point of getting it down to 50 either because when you open everything back up cases will soar again to 1500.

Also there's probably 1000s of asytomatic people walking around.

There probably are thousands walking around asymptomatic and does it matter at all Once the death rate Remains low? I think not. The whole thing is just one big global over reaction that is going to super line the big pharmaceutical companies pockets for years to come.

talulon

talulon wrote: »

Only 6.31% of the cases come from those kids in school, if you are going to post random data at least spend some time educating yourself.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19%20Daily%20epidemiology%20report%20(NPHET)_20201130_website.pdf

Biggest percentage of cases come from people age 15-64.

It's a bigger number of people.

talulon

talulon wrote: »

Only 6.31% of the cases come from those kids in school, if you are going to post random data at least spend some time educating yourself.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19%20Daily%20epidemiology%20report%20(NPHET)_20201130_website.pdf

Biggest percentage of cases come from people age 15-64.

The big picture is not how many kids are sick, but how many are sick because they have kids in their house

Nermal

average_runner wrote: »

If we don't do lockdown and the virus gets out of control, where do we draw the line?

We opened things up and people took the piss, ie GAA clubs for example.

Its all about attitude, if we have the correct attitude we can open up

Comical stuff.

"We can open up, so long as you don't act like we have opened up".

GreeBo

atr2002 wrote: »

I was surprised they cited kids mental health as a reason not to close schools.

If they had of extended the Halloween hols a week either side of the break and the same with Christmas, id wager the numbers would plummet, as looking to my previous post, the age profile getting infected being 35 to 45 being parents of primary school kids

I think you are mixing correlation and causation there.
35-45 year olds are most likely to have new cars....do you think new cars are spreading COVID?

GhostyMcGhost

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

There are people who will not be able to take a vaccine and what's a Covid related illness?

Obviously there are people who are not able to vaccinate and I'm not referring to those

When I say covid related illness, I mean brought to hospital with breathing difficulties, requiring ICU or a ventilator, that sort of thing

If people dont want to vaccinate because facebook said so, then we simply as a country cannot afford to pay their healthcare if they end up critically ill over it when there's a vaccine that can prevent* you getting it

* depending on vaccine effectiveness

Plumbthedepths

GhostyMcGhost wrote: »

Obviously there are people who are not able to vaccinate and I'm not referring to those

When I say covid related illness, I mean brought to hospital with breathing difficulties, requiring ICU or a ventilator, that sort of thing

If people dont want to vaccinate because facebook said so, then we simply as a country cannot afford to pay their healthcare if they end up critically ill over it when there's a vaccine that can prevent* you getting it

* depending on vaccine effectiveness

You could say the same about obese people or others who live an unhealthy or dangerous lifestyle.

miece16

GhostyMcGhost wrote: »

Obviously there are people who are not able to vaccinate and I'm not referring to those

When I say covid related illness, I mean brought to hospital with breathing difficulties, requiring ICU or a ventilator, that sort of thing

If people dont want to vaccinate because facebook said so, then we simply as a country cannot afford to pay their healthcare if they end up critically ill over it when there's a vaccine that can prevent* you getting it

* depending on vaccine effectiveness

as much as you would like that, that's not how it works

GhostyMcGhost

miece16 wrote: »

as much as you would like that, that's not how it works

Well how else do you address it? G’OD and JW etc get to spread all the rubbish they like across social media platforms and throughout this pandemic a lot of people have fallen for their bull simply because they’ve been tired of it all.

If people have their reasons, fair enough but we should not pay for it with prolonged lockdowns and restrictions, or indeed more borrowing...

I suppose in reality it’s like a drug dealer getting shot, won’t be refused entry to A&E but it’s still a load of balls. We need to educate people but unfortunately we’ve failed so miserably in this over the years as our default answer has been tax it (smokes, alcohol, obesity, transport)

Beasty

copeyhagen wrote: »

the health service was never under any threat.

Yep. All the restrictions have worked on that front.

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

Well yes, if the level 5 is half arsed. Schools open? Not L5.

Schools are outside even Level 10 and would only be closed in really dire circumstances. HSE data say they are at a much lower risk. As for the Level 5 it has done some work, R0 below zero, positivity back to about 2% and 7 & 14 day rates among the lowest in Europe. Sure, we didn't hit the preferred range of 50-100 cases a day but we've shown that we can protect at risk populations and manage the disease.

ednwireland

is_that_so wrote: »

but we've shown that we can protect at risk populations and manage the disease.

and destroy the economy

bb1234567

Well it was never realistic. Our excess deaths have now dropped below what we see during normal years and we are one of the only countries in Europe with below average excess deaths this Autumn. What the hell else matters? Cases mean nothing if it doesn't translate to deaths, surely that is what we are trying to stop, we have dropped cases to the level that it causes no excess deaths. They're overreaching but I think the lockdown was a success, just the stated goal was misled

I guess the only valid worry is that the more cases there are in the community the faster it will grow back to levels where it causes high excess deaths when restrictions ease

is_that_so

ednwireland wrote: »

and destroy the economy

Some sectors have been very badly hit, predictably so. Most of the rest of it is in cold storage. That would be the virus itself anyway - we had absolutely no choice in March.

faceman

Level 5 got cases down to some of the lowest in Europe. Its only temporary of course, but it put us in a good place.

But that depends on what you got a good place.

So many people were pushed on to PUP, businesses folded and now it looks like with "wet" pubs set to remain closed till we have a vaccine, many of them will fold too. High street retail is on the verge or either collapse or restructure and mental health issues have increased significantly.

We dont have a detailed vaccine plan for Ireland yet but looking at Spain, they have said their vaccine plan will be a 15 stage process and take 9 months from January to September. They also said that masks and social distancing will have to remain a measure for Winter 2021 as we assess how long immunity lasts.

No one is afraid of the virus anymore so the more lockdown measures Ireland tries to use, the weaker a measure it becomes.

If we are looking at lockdown 3.0 come January, it may be the chocolate teapot of lockdowns.

Boggles

faceman wrote: »

Level 5 got cases down to some of the lowest in Europe. Its only temporary of course, but it put us in a good place.

But that depends on what you got a good place.

So many people were pushed on to PUP, businesses folded and now it looks like with "wet" pubs set to remain closed till we have a vaccine, many of them will fold too. High street retail is on the verge or either collapse or restructure and mental health issues have increased significantly.

We dont have a detailed vaccine plan for Ireland yet but looking at Spain, they have said their vaccine plan will be a 15 stage process and take 9 months from January to September. They also said that masks and social distancing will have to remain a measure for Winter 2021 as we assess how long immunity lasts.

No one is afraid of the virus anymore so the more lockdown measures Ireland tries to use, the weaker a measure it becomes.

If we are looking at lockdown 3.0 come January, it may be the chocolate teapot of lockdowns.

Surely if you are trying to gauge our performance on how good or bad of a place we are in you have to weigh up the positives with the negatives.

Your post is heavily laden-ed with negatives with sprinklings of supposition.

votecounts

The thing that really worries me is the rollout of the vaccine, do people honestly believe that FF and FG won't make a mess of this as I wouldn't trust them to organise a piss up in a brewery. I really hope it all works out and we can get back to normality. I have not really been affected by it financially but to be on PUP or educed wages must be terrible for some people at this time of year.

average_runner

Deleted User wrote: »

That's very selective figures. How many other than the children? In their families etc. What about the school in cork?

It wasn't picked up in the school, it was brought into the school by the families of the kids.


I give you load more examples of virus low in schools.



The cork one is a good example, how did the virus get into the school?
Has anyone identified the kids spread it around the school or did it comes from the homes?



We need this information before we make conclusions

rob316

votecounts wrote: »

The thing that really worries me is the rollout of the vaccine, do people honestly believe that FF and FG won't make a mess of this as I wouldn't trust them to organise a piss up in a brewery. I really hope it all works out and we can get back to normality. I have not really been affected by it financially but to be on PUP or educed wages must be terrible for some people at this time of year.

Alan Kelly wouldn't let it rest yesterday in the Dail that we need a minister appointed to oversee the rollout, he knows Donnelly isn't up to the task and I'm sure Leo and Martin can see that too.

Boggles

rob316 wrote: »

Alan Kelly wouldn't let it rest yesterday in the Dail that we need a minister appointed to oversee the rollout, he knows Donnelly isn't up to the task and I'm sure Leo and Martin can see that too.

Martin just torpedoed the idea.

I can't see any benefit TBH, just another ministry with all the associates layers of fat that comes with it.

Kelly is just trying to make himself relevant, he was obviously watching Sky News over the weekend, the Brits have appointed one and he decided he needed to get back on the radio.

landofthetree

Deleted User wrote: »

I will refer you to the best answer to your assertion on the other thread which you duly ignored

All wishful thinking.

It's obvious that cases will be over 1000 a day by Jan.

copeyhagen

is_that_so wrote: »

but we've shown that we can protect at risk populations and manage the disease.

wait, what? you realise that the average age of death was 83 and that 1700 (when deaths were at 1800) deaths were related to underlying conditions.

this means the elderly and sick in nursing homes/medical fascilities were the ones dying....

yes, they done a great job protecting the vulnerable..

smh

Padre_Pio

ednwireland wrote: »

and destroy the economy

Destroy is a strong word. The economy will recover.

Unemployment is high, but this will bounce back. Pubs, restaurants and services will reopen quickly. If businesses close then others will take their place.

Government expenditure is high, but that social welfare mostly, which again, comes back in tax receipts.

Corporation tax is doing well, most white and blue collar jobs are working as usual, exports are good, personal savings are up for most of the country, property prices are strong.

Next year is going to be a bonanza year with all this pent up demand

Atlantic Dawn

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

What I would love to know is say mid 2021 if we get all healthcare workers and vulnerable people vaccinated can we just then return to normal?

Not if you listen to Sam McConkey. This is our new normal according to him. Not sure where the money for PUP or even the health service is going to come from. Perhaps SFs magic money tree can help here?

Padre_Pio

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Destroy is a strong word. The economy will recover.

Eventually, after 8-10 years.

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Unemployment is high, but this will bounce back. Pubs, restaurants and services will reopen quickly. If businesses close then others will take their place.

Some are gone forever. People will have less money to spend, therefore many won't open for years.

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Government expenditure is high, but that social welfare mostly, which again, comes back in tax receipts.

Higher taxes for everyone working, which will further depress the economy. The Government have baked in an extra €4 billion of permanent spending. Also we've agreed to become the 5th largest contributor to the EU budget in ABSOLUTE TERMS - not per capita. https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/ireland-to-pay-over-3200-to-eu-for-every-man-woman-and-child-in-the-country-over-the-next-seven-years-39389257.html

Only Germany, France, the Netherlands and Sweden will make a higher contribution than Ireland… while this country will make the second highest payment per capita, ceding first place to only tiny Luxembourg.

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Corporation tax is doing well, most white and blue collar jobs are working as usual, exports are good, personal savings are up for most of the country, property prices are strong.

This is true, however if the government jack up taxes, or the EU force us to, or SF gets elected, and they all run away, then we are in deep sh1t.

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Next year is going to be a bonanza year with all this pent up demand

For entertainment and hospitality sector, yes. It won't get them back to where they were pre COVID.

As someone who runs a small business that did quite well during COVID, I think we are screwed for a long time.

Tazz T

landofthetree wrote: »

All wishful thinking.

It's obvious that cases will be over 1000 a day by Jan.

I'll take that bet and raise you everything I own. There isn't a chance we'll be over 1000 in January.

In fact, I believe we'll be well under 100. The two weeks the schools are out will be kicking in then, easily offsetting any increased infection spread due to socialising over xmas. Remember we're still still at Level 3.5.

Our schools stats here are hidden within in-house transmission. In the UK, number one spreader is secondary schools by a large margin.

Green list in January if not by then.

Padre_Pio

Deleted User wrote: »

Eventually, after 8-10 years.

Some are gone forever. People will have less money to spend, therefore many won't open for years.

Higher taxes for everyone working, which will further depress the economy. The Government have baked in an extra €4 billion of permanent spending. Also we've agreed to become the 5th largest contributor to the EU budget in ABSOLUTE TERMS - not per capita.

This is true, however if the government jack up taxes, or the EU force us to, or SF gets elected, and they all run away, then we are in deep sh1t.

For entertainment and hospitality sector, yes. It won't get them back to where they were pre COVID.

As someone who runs a small business that did quite well during COVID, I think we are screwed for a long time.

8-10? Not even the 2008 recession took 8-10 years to recover (ah but some country towns are still in recession you say, but they were always in recession).

Most people have MORE to spend. the same as anyone who stayed on their wage, or had govt top up.
The recovery is going to be very uneven, granted, but since the ECB is printing free money, we'll do well out of it.

Padre_Pio

Padre_Pio wrote: »

8-10? Not even the 2008 recession took 8-10 years to recover (ah but some country towns are still in recession you say, but they were always in recession).

This is much worse than the 2008 recession. Unemployment wasn't 21% during that. The borrowing we are doing is equivalent to the Troika bailout, and will most likely exceed it.

And this "free money" nonsense is just that, nonsense. It will all have to be paid back, and interest rates will rise. Otherwise banks will go bust. It will also lead to inflation.

Couple that with energy costs going through the roof due to all the green initiatives (not suggesting this is bad for the planet, but it's bad for the economy).

Politically everyone wants to spend,spend,spend. This never ends well. Just look at 1970s UK.

If we have another pandemic in that time which is more deadly, we are finished, as we have shot our bolt on this one. All the money we are spending now is gone with not much to show for it in terms of lasting effects.

I am not at all optimistic about the next 8-10 years. Time will tell.

Padre_Pio

Deleted User wrote: »

This is much worse than the 2008 recession. Unemployment wasn't 21% during that. The borrowing we are doing is equivalent to the Troika bailout, and will most likely exceed it.

And this "free money" nonsense is just that, nonsense. It will all have to be paid back, and interest rates will rise. Otherwise banks will go bust. It will also lead to inflation.

Unemployment isn't really 21% now. The govt could cut it by 10% tomorrow if they opened up the economy. They have chosen not to. But in 3 months or 6 months unemployment will be back to sub 10%

What you're saying doesn't match up with the economic policy put forward by the EU.

landofthetree

landofthetree wrote: »

All wishful thinking.

It's obvious that cases will be over 1000 a day by Jan.

See you on Jan 1st then

niallo27

Deleted User wrote: »

This is much worse than the 2008 recession. Unemployment wasn't 21% during that. The borrowing we are doing is equivalent to the Troika bailout, and will most likely exceed it.

And this "free money" nonsense is just that, nonsense. It will all have to be paid back, and interest rates will rise. Otherwise banks will go bust. It will also lead to inflation.

Couple that with energy costs going through the roof due to all the green initiatives (not suggesting this is bad for the planet, but it's bad for the economy).

Politically everyone wants to spend,spend,spend. This never ends well. Just look at 1970s UK.

If we have another pandemic in that time which is more deadly, we are finished, as we have shot our bolt on this one. All the money we are spending now is gone with not much to show for it in terms of lasting effects.

I am not at all optimistic about the next 8-10 years. Time will tell.

If interest rates rise across Europe its a sign economies are booming. Interest rates will not rise in a recession.