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Why are so many people still going to work

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    #152
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Deleted User wrote: »
    She's an outlier. Like the granny smoking 60 a day living into her 90s. It happens, but it's not the norm.

    So everyone under 65 who catches this "over 65s disease" is an outlier?

    Okay then. :rolleyes:


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    #153
    GarIT
    Registered Users Posts: 8,671 ✭✭✭GarIT


    H8GHOTI wrote: »
    Sure but if you compare now to mid-October, is there much of a decrease? Has level 5 had any impact on traffic?

    There's other threads about the bargains to be had in Argos and Woodies, it seems like we're not in Level 5 to me.


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    #154
    c68zapdsm5i1ru
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,709 ✭✭✭c68zapdsm5i1ru


    On the Beach wrote: »
    Eh.... I didn't respond to anyone. I made one post on this thread where I didn't quote anyone and I certainly wasn't freaking out. So either you're confusing me with someone else or you're deluded.

    Apologies. That was meant for Kaiser and Assetsbacked2.

    Sorry about that.


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    #155
    On the Beach
    Closed Accounts Posts: 187 ✭✭On the Beach


    Paxton Great Mirage wrote:
    Apologies. That was meant for Kaiser and Assetsbacked2.

    Paxton Great Mirage wrote:
    Sorry about that.


    Fair enough. Apology accepted.

    Look at us being all civilised on the internet... :pac:


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    #156
    c68zapdsm5i1ru
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,709 ✭✭✭c68zapdsm5i1ru


    On the Beach wrote: »
    Fair enough. Apology accepted.

    Look at us being all civilised on the internet... :pac:



    :)


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    #157
    freshpopcorn
    Registered Users Posts: 30,354 ✭✭✭✭freshpopcorn


    Back in April all the shops, lots of factories, school’s and businesses were closed.
    This time around they aren’t and a lot of the shops which are essential and those that aren’t can open for Click/Call and collect.
    Certain places and shops are selling stuff they shouldn’t.
    They only really took action on the Major supermarkets.
    Back in April people were good they went out they did their weekly shop and came home.
    Now however, they’ve to go to work, kids in school and they’ve the option to go out for a few bits in the shops and wear a mask or sit at home in the kitchen.
    Going by the traffic levels and seeing town/shops being as busy as normal. People seem to be choosing the option of getting on as normal with a mask and they don’t feel guilty or ashamed about it.
    Some people are really living in a bubble and when they see what’s going on it sort of shocks them.


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    #158
    AssetBacked2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 232 ✭✭AssetBacked2


    cdeb wrote: »
    18.4 of those deaths had underlying conditions?

    So that leaves 1.6 people (1 3/5ths of a person?) who didn't?

    Something probably a bit wrong with the maths there somewhere.

    The mind boggles with this level of ignorance. 92% of all deaths had underlying clinical conditions.


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    #159
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,913 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    WFH if you can. I thought that was the mantra.

    Is the migration back to offices the result of management command and control, or people's desire to do it in order to get out of the house or what?

    I dunno. But I totally agree, the traffic is mental now. I take the point that PT is not ideal though.

    Christmas shopping is a factor now too. Lots are on the Covid payment and just want to get out and do something.


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    #160
    cdeb
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 7,170 Mod ✭✭✭✭cdeb


    AssetBacked2 wrote: »
    The mind boggles with this level of ignorance. 92% of all deaths had underlying clinical conditions.
    That's not what you said though.


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    #161
    The chan chan man
    Registered Users Posts: 824 ✭✭✭The chan chan man


    Read the guidelines, practically everyone is “essential” this time!


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    #162
    AssetBacked2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 232 ✭✭AssetBacked2


    cdeb wrote: »
    That's not what you said though.

    I applied that stat, which is based on averages and is not broken down, to the negligible death rate in the younger people. I take it you have no data whatsoever to contradict my statement that this is an O65s virus?

    I think I can even extend this further and say it is an O75s virus;

    394 deaths in Ireland in total in 9 months with covid in Ireland under the age of 75 (61348 cases in total under the age of 75). 0.64% deaths against cases.

    Go to bed cdeb.


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    #163
    Stovepipe
    Registered Users Posts: 2,979 ✭✭✭Stovepipe


    well, the three bikers on sports bikes I saw today were definitely not on essential business.


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    #164
    9db3xj7z41fs5u
    Closed Accounts Posts: 172 ✭✭9db3xj7z41fs5u


    The luas seems to have a lot of people in the mornings. I think that Dublin Bus enforce it a lot better!


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    #165
    cdeb
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 7,170 Mod ✭✭✭✭cdeb


    AssetBacked2 wrote: »
    I applied that stat, which is based on averages and is not broken down, to the negligible death rate in the younger people. I take it you have no data whatsoever to contradict my statement that this is an O65s virus?

    I think I can even extend this further and say it is an O75s virus;

    394 deaths in Ireland in total in 9 months with covid in Ireland under the age of 75 (61348 cases in total under the age of 75). 0.64% deaths against cases.

    Go to bed cdeb.
    You seem to be one of these people who thinks being angry is the same thing as making a point. So let's make this simple for you.

    You said -
    20 people died with covid (92% of these deaths had underlying clinical conditions).
    That doesn't make sense. You are saying 18.4% of those deaths had an underlying condition and the other 1.6 people didn't.

    Maybe you made a simple typo. Maybe you copied and pasted an error without understanding it because it suited your argument. I don't know - partly because you're just blustering angrily rather than reading what I've posted. But I'm curious to know what this sentence should have meant.


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    #166
    cdeb
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 7,170 Mod ✭✭✭✭cdeb


    Actually, it seems you're just applying a general percentage without really reading to see that what you're saying makes correct.

    It would have been easier to say that rather than being an overweening aggressive numpty to be honest.

    Though I don't know why (a) people think those with underlying medical conditions (like asthma or diabetes) should be excluded from stats and (b) why people think the binary outcome of covid is "you'll die or you'll be grand"


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    #167
    bladespin
    Registered Users Posts: 7,339 ✭✭✭bladespin


    Stovepipe wrote: »
    well, the three bikers on sports bikes I saw today were definitely not on essential business.

    How could you know? Going to the shops? Going to work? Far to many wannabe judges about, massive assumptions.


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    #168
    AssetBacked2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 232 ✭✭AssetBacked2


    cdeb wrote: »
    You seem to be one of these people who thinks being angry is the same thing as making a point. So let's make this simple for you.

    You said -


    That doesn't make sense. You are saying 18.4% of those deaths had an underlying condition and the other 1.6 people didn't.

    Maybe you made a simple typo. Maybe you copied and pasted an error without understanding it because it suited your argument. I don't know - partly because you're just blustering angrily rather than reading what I've posted. But I'm curious to know what this sentence should have meant.

    Okay, since you need this point clarified (I'm still waiting for you to counter the main point however so don't think you can duck away and I'll let you accept that under 65s should be overly concerned with covid);

    20 people in Ireland in that age group have died. In our overall death figures, 92% had underlying clinical conditions. It is not necessarily the case that 92% of those 20 had such conditions, but objectively 20 people is f-all.

    Now, let's have your alternate data which goes against the data showing it is not really an under 65s virus (those of working age), which is why there isn't a big problem with them going to work.


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    #169
    SuperRabbit
    Registered Users Posts: 698 ✭✭✭SuperRabbit


    bladespin wrote: »
    How could you know? Going to the shops? Going to work? Far to many wannabe judges about, massive assumptions.

    Right! Loads of people commute on sports bikes, including essential workers. Such wankery in this thread


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    #170
    cdeb
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 7,170 Mod ✭✭✭✭cdeb


    AssetBacked2 wrote: »
    Okay, since you need this point clarified (I'm still waiting for you to counter the main point however so don't think you can duck away and I'll let you accept that under 65s should be overly concerned with covid);

    20 people in Ireland in that age group have died. In our overall death figures, 92% had underlying clinical conditions. It is not necessarily the case that 92% of those 20 had such conditions, but objectively 20 people is f-all.

    Now, let's have your alternate data which goes against the data showing it is not really an under 65s virus (those of working age), which is why there isn't a big problem with them going to work.
    I still don't know why the aggression btw. And you're not really reading things, because I haven't made any comment one way or another on over 65s, so I don't know why you're accusing me of ducking anything. I picked up on a stat you quoted which appeared incorrect and queried it (it turned out to be badly phrased, but you've clarified, which is all I wanted). In return, I've got effectively nothing but abuse and aggression.

    That said, I did ask you why you seem to be discounting cases with underlying medical conditions, seeing as they include (to my knowledge) very common conditions such as asthma, obesity and diabetes - that could be up to half the population. I also asked why you seem to be focussing on a binary outcome of Die/Be grand, when there are other outcomes too (medical complications such as those flagged by others on the thread). You don't seem to have addressed either question.

    Of course this affects over 65s more. A lot more. No-one is remotely arguing anything to the contrary - least of all me as, despite your ignorant protestations, I haven't actually argued anything. But your figure of 20 deaths under the age of 45 does of course needs to be considered in line with the exceptional measures taken to keep deaths down. What would the death toll (and the medical complications toll) have been if we'd kept everything open, for example? How does that stack up against a normal period? That would be the true way of comparing covid to the flu, as some have rather crassly done.


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    #171
    On the Beach
    Closed Accounts Posts: 187 ✭✭On the Beach


    cdeb wrote:
    Of course this affects over 65s more. A lot more. No-one is remotely arguing anything to the contrary - least of all me as, despite your ignorant protestations, I haven't actually argued anything. But your figure of 20 deaths under the age of 45 does of course needs to be considered in line with the exceptional measures taken to keep deaths down. What would the death toll (and the medical complications toll) have been if we'd kept everything open, for example? How does that stack up against a normal period? That would be the true way of comparing covid to the flu, as some have rather crassly done.


    I wouldn't say it's crass to compare it to the flu. You have to consider aswell that there already is a vaccine for the flu so it is hard to compare alright. This was a new virus that the medical profession was struggling to deal with at the start but there's a lot that's been learned with regard to treatment these past months. So if you look where we're at now with regard to hospitalisation and mortality, you can see why people would make the no worse than the flu comparison. Also it's worth considering, every year when someone gets the flu, they don't test all their close contacts to see who else contracted it.

    There's no definites here with covid and I think there's big dismissiveness going on on both sides of the argument.


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    #172
    bladespin
    Registered Users Posts: 7,339 ✭✭✭bladespin


    SuperRabbit wrote: »
    Right! Loads of people commute on sports bikes, including essential workers. Such wankery in this thread

    I do sometimes, more so during the first lockdown when the weather was good, great therapy too.


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    #173
    cdeb
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 7,170 Mod ✭✭✭✭cdeb


    On the Beach wrote: »
    I wouldn't say it's crass to compare it to the flu. You have to consider aswell that there already is a vaccine for the flu so it is hard to compare alright.
    Well the vaccine point is fair enough (although those who suggest this is just like a bad flu don't really mention that). The HSE say that typically 200-500 people a year in Ireland die of the flu. A bad year might see 1,000 die. Covid has killed 2000 people in eight months despite extreme measures being taken.

    I think your point above is more accurately phrased as "With a vaccine, we could get covid as under control as the flu", which is probably reasonable. At least, I hope to **** it's reasonable, given the alternative.

    But the stats show covid is a lot nastier than the flu right now.


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    #174
    On the Beach
    Closed Accounts Posts: 187 ✭✭On the Beach


    cdeb wrote:
    . A bad year might see 1,000 die. Covid has killed 2000 people in eight months despite extreme measures being taken.

    cdeb wrote:
    But the stats show covid is a lot nastier than the flu right now.


    Yes there has been more deaths but you have to take into account that this was a new virus which they were struggling to treat at the start. Also at the start people were being buried with no autopsy which skewed the stats a bit as when they started doing autopsies to find cause of death the numbers decreased a lot. I'm sure there's other factors, like treatment improving also.

    The stats and narrative with regard to covid has changed a lot as we've gone on. Like even now the mainstream media has started printing stories where studies are showing that in a lot of people antibodies are lasting a lot longer than initially thought. They're predicting antibodies even lasting years. That's a huge difference to what we were being told for months now.

    So like I said the facts and narrative with covid are ever changing so I don't think anything is black and white with this yet. We'll probably know more down the line I suppose but for me I don't think it's as bad as the initial narrative was leading people to believe.


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    #175
    cdeb
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 7,170 Mod ✭✭✭✭cdeb


    On the Beach wrote: »
    Yes there has been more deaths but you have to take into account that this was a new virus which they were struggling to treat at the start.
    Worth nothing that globally, deaths are higher now than ever. Recently hit 10k deaths per day, whereas the original peak was 7.5k. Of course there's detection issues there - are we being more accurate in reporting now? - but it doesn't seem that we're getting a huge amount better at treating it now.

    Our low death rate - 10 or so a day at the moment - is in large part a symptom of going to Level 5 relatively early. Belgium and the Czechs have been recording 200 deaths per day for most of this month. Slovenia is 30-50 per day all this month. Adjusting for population, that's 100/day here. That would mean as many people dying of covid in a month as normally die of all causes. That's a lot - and it's still with restrictions in place in those countries, albeit less than ours. And again, that's not counting the side-effects of those who come through covid.

    The stats and narrative regarding covid are obviously going to change as more research is done into it. But that doesn't mean that this isn't a nasty little bugger.


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    #176
    On the Beach
    Closed Accounts Posts: 187 ✭✭On the Beach


    cdeb wrote:
    Our low death rate - 10 or so a day at the moment - is in large part a symptom of going to Level 5 relatively early.

    They're all good points you've made. Is the above fact though, or what you reckon? It's not really comparing like for like when comparing death and infection rates with other countries. Population density would be a big factor and how people live also compared to Ireland. You've other stuff to factor in like obesity rates and such. There's a lot of permutations there when you're getting into comparing to other countries. You would expect to see a surge in a lot of these countries at the minute too as we're in what's traditionally flu season. I wouldn't be so sure it was us going into level 5 that has saved the day.

    I'm not being dismissive of covid by the way. As you said it's a nasty little virus but I do think personally, the projections of death rates and that have been way off and led to frightening a lot of people.

    Anyways I'm off to the land of nod. It's been a good oul discussion with you. Take it easy


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    #177
    AssetBacked2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 232 ✭✭AssetBacked2


    cdeb wrote: »
    Well the vaccine point is fair enough (although those who suggest this is just like a bad flu don't really mention that). The HSE say that typically 200-500 people a year in Ireland die of the flu. A bad year might see 1,000 die. Covid has killed 2000 people in eight months despite extreme measures being taken.

    I think your point above is more accurately phrased as "With a vaccine, we could get covid as under control as the flu", which is probably reasonable. At least, I hope to **** it's reasonable, given the alternative.

    But the stats show covid is a lot nastier than the flu right now.

    Wrong.

    "covid has killed", can you please show this?

    We have deaths "with covid" being present in a test for 2,000 people but we also know that 93% of such deaths had underlying clinical conditions and from this 2,000, 390 people in total in the 8 months under the age of 85 have died with covid. That's around 600 annually. Hardly earth shattering.

    Arguably, comparing covid to the flu undersells the flu as at least we have a vaccine for the flu.


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    #178
    emo72
    Registered Users Posts: 6,236 ✭✭✭emo72


    AssetBacked2 wrote: »
    Wrong.

    "covid has killed", can you please show this?

    We have deaths "with covid" being present in a test for 2,000 people but we also know that 93% of such deaths had underlying clinical conditions and from this 2,000, 390 people in total in the 8 months under the age of 85 have died with covid. That's around 600 annually. Hardly earth shattering.

    Arguably, comparing covid to the flu undersells the flu as at least we have a vaccine for the flu.

    Yes your point is very valid. If someone died of a head on car crash but was covid positive, it counts as death by covid. That is bull****.


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    #179
    robinbird
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭robinbird


    I see sheep wrote: »
    I saw some bastard walking his dog yesterday.

    Well. At least he wasn't out walking his mink.


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    #180
    cdeb
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 7,170 Mod ✭✭✭✭cdeb


    On the Beach wrote: »
    They're all good points you've made. Is the above fact though, or what you reckon?
    I'm not medically qualified, so I can't stand over it as fact.

    But if you look at the incidence rate before and after Level 5, it's down from what - 1200 a day and growing to 400 a day and reducing? The only change is the lockdown, so we have to attribute the reduction in cases to lockdown. It then stands to reason that cases would have continued to grow had we not gone to Level 5.

    A general rule of thumb is that deaths now are 1% of cases three weeks ago. That's more or less what we're seeing now, and is why deaths are still increasing even as lockdown is reducing cases.

    Had we not gone into lockdown, deaths today would be roughly the same, but cases would probably be 2000+ per day and growing (by extrapolation) and we'd be looking at 20+ deaths per day and growing in the run-up to Christmas.


    You've other stuff to factor in like obesity rates and such. You would expect to see a surge in a lot of these countries at the minute too as we're in what's traditionally flu season. I wouldn't be so sure it was us going into level 5 that has saved the day.
    I suppose this invites three questions -

    1) Is Ireland's obesity rate significantly different to the rest of Europe? This - https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Overweight_and_obesity_-_BMI_statistics - would suggest not
    2) We're coming into flu season in Ireland too
    3) If Level 5 didn't "save the day", what has caused daily case numbers to drop by 70% since Level 5 came in?


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    #181
    cdeb
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 7,170 Mod ✭✭✭✭cdeb


    AssetBacked2 wrote: »
    Wrong.

    "covid has killed", can you please show this?

    We have deaths "with covid" being present in a test for 2,000 people but we also know that 93% of such deaths had underlying clinical conditions and from this 2,000, 390 people in total in the 8 months under the age of 85 have died with covid. That's around 600 annually. Hardly earth shattering.

    Arguably, comparing covid to the flu undersells the flu as at least we have a vaccine for the flu.
    Oh dear.

    The official HSE figures are 2000. If you want to argue they're wrong, the burden is on you, not me.

    I've already suggested underlying health conditions include asthma, diabetes and obesity, which takes in 50% of the country. Why are you so keen to ignore these deaths?

    And I've already said that the death rates have to be viewed in the light of the extraordinary measures being taken to reduce the death rates.

    That we have a vaccine for the flu and not for covid is exactly why we can't compare the two. Because you can prevent one but not the other.

    I'm concerned now you're one of these people who'll bluster angrily in lieu of making a point while ignoring any points other people make. So if your next reply is as silly as your other ones, I'll call that a wrap on a discussion which is really just you being angry and throwing out insults to mask the fact you can't coherently make your point


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