US Presidential Election 2020

Quin_Dub · 02-11-2020 02:42PM

duploelabs wrote: »

They've done it consistently on every election night for the past 30 years

Indeed , but I think there is a real recognition of how "different" this one is.

I suspect that there will be a much higher emphasis given to what % of votes are counted and also the various rules around when mail-in ballots can be received etc.

Not saying they won't be talking about scenarios endlessly , but they are going to be heavily surrounded by caveats in abundance.

MJohnston · 02-11-2020 02:47PM

duploelabs wrote: »

They've done it consistently on every election night for the past 30 years

In fairness to Fox, they've been able to do that for the past 30 years because elections haven't changed much in terms of process since then.

This year is massively different from every single modern US election. The level of early and mail-in voting may even give Fox pause.

I'll also add to this that while Fox News' "entertainment" side is awful, their polling outfit is excellent (A- from 538) and their decision desk is independent and accurate.

UpBack1234 · 02-11-2020 02:49PM

Francie Barrett wrote: »

SNIP

I think people need to prep themselves for the still quite possible scenario that Trump will win. Republican base turnout is far more reliable than Dems and polling has become far less reliable, globally, mostly thanks to social media-driven paranoia.

MJohnston · 02-11-2020 02:54PM

UpBack1234 wrote: »

I think people need to prep themselves for the still quite possible scenario that Trump will win. Republican base turnout is far more reliable than Dems and polling has become far less reliable, globally, mostly thanks to social media-driven paranoia.

I don't know about globally, but that's definitely not true of the US:

UpBack1234 · 02-11-2020 02:56PM

MJohnston wrote: »

I don't know about globally, but that's definitely not true of the US:

Missed on 2016 tho...

Quin_Dub · 02-11-2020 02:58PM

UpBack1234 wrote: »

I think people need to prep themselves for the still quite possible scenario that Trump will win. Republican base turnout is far more reliable than Dems and polling has become far less reliable, globally, mostly thanks to social media-driven paranoia.

Trump can definitely still win , but it would be against the odds.

I have not seen any evidence that polling is "far less reliable" now than before.

The Interpretation of polling data however is all over the map , made worse by Social Media , but the actual hard science of probabilities etc. remain fairly solid.

Depending on which source you are using Trump has between a 10% and 20% chance of winning.

That is absolutely not zero and in a two horse race, a 1 in 5 or 1 in 10 chance is definitely still in the game.

Trump needs to roll a hard 7 three or four times in a row to win . Highly unlikely , but not impossible.

droidus · 02-11-2020 03:15PM

Some positive news from Florida. Yesterday's souls to polls drive seems to have worked.

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1323263321819197440

TomOnBoard · 02-11-2020 03:18PM

droidus wrote: »

Some positive news from Florida. Yesterday's souls to polls drive seems to have worked.

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1323263321819197440

That's a heck of a lot of vote-by-mail ballots not yet returned!!!

valoren · 02-11-2020 03:20PM

According to the 538 if Biden wins PA then he has a 98% chance of winning. If he wins Florida he has a 99% chance. He only needs one. Trump needs them both or else win a slew of states he is currently behind in.

Now if Biden loses both PA and FL then he can still win by taking the states he's currently favoured to win. Wisconsin (93%), Nevada (87%), Minnesota (95%), Michigan (95%), Illinois (99%). If he doesn't take all those states he is heavily favoured in New Mexico (97%), Virginia (99%), Colorado (96%), New Hampshire (98%), Maine (90%). He is favoured to win Arizona at 70% and tied in North Carolina and Georgia.

everlast75 · 02-11-2020 03:22PM

Rayden Mushy Carpentry wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323266472152600576

These are some mad numbers. Polling is pretty much dead if Trump wins.

A lot of people on here know a lot more than me about polling, but it seems to me that there is some short term gain for pollsters to come out with outlandish forecasts in that it is clickbait and drives up revenue, but long term it can destroy your reputation in future elections and it would appear your future research will be automatically rubbished as a result.

letowski · 02-11-2020 03:22PM

droidus wrote: »

Some positive news from Florida. Yesterday's souls to polls drive seems to have worked.

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1323263321819197440

It was Souls to the Polls day in Florida yesterday.

Interestingly, despite the Democratic concerns coming out of Miami-Dade, they have exceeded their numbers in Broward County. Typically the African American vote turns out on Election day so it will be interesting to see if Obama can get them out tomorrow.

Looks very tight in Florida. Democrats' 110k EVAB advantage is higher than 90k they had in 2016. But that's a disproportionately large EVAB turnout.

02-11-2020 03:22PM

MJohnston wrote: »

The dumbest, most utterly brainless thing about the GOP this time around is that they've telegraphed almost every single voter suppression technique they're going to use loudly and clearly for weeks.

The last two weeks in particular have ensured that most TV networks will be extremely careful about caveating all of their projections and estimates.

This was such an utterly ****ing stupid move on the part of the Trump campaign that it almost seems like 3D chess. But if they were smart enough to pull that off they wouldn't be working for Trump.

Leaving people in the cold or rain would seem like a stupid way to treat your voters as well. These people love it. GOP voters are totally fine with winning by losing the popular vote. They're fine with doing everything through the courts. They're fine with voter suppression. These things are features, not bugs remember.

MJohnston · 02-11-2020 03:26PM

UpBack1234 wrote: »

Missed on 2016 tho...

And they have had big misses in the past too, but your point was that misses have been getting worse. They haven't.

Quin_Dub · 02-11-2020 03:28PM

letowski wrote: »

It was Souls to the Polls day in Florida yesterday.

Interestingly, despite the Democratic concerns coming out of Miami-Dade, they have exceeded their numbers in Broward County. Typically the African American vote turns out on Election day so it will be interesting to see if Obama can get them out tomorrow.

Looks very tight in Florida. Democrats' 110k EVAB advantage is higher than 90k they had in 2016. But that's a disproportionately large EVAB turnout.

That's just the Registered Democrats/Republicans view.

It doesn't take into account the Independents , which based on polling are skewed more for Biden.

Also - Various polls seem to suggest that about twice as many Registered Republicans will vote for Biden vs. Democrats doing the opposite.

Still absolutely all to play for and the on the day voting will be crucial.

TomOnBoard · 02-11-2020 03:30PM

TomOnBoard wrote: »

That's a heck of a lot of vote-by-mail ballots not yet returned!!!

I wonder how many are stuck in USPS baskets still awaiting processing due to Louis DeJoy sabotage of the Postal System...

It's becoming clear how much Trump was projecting when he said that mail-in ballots were subject to widespread fraud.. He was actually planning his own widespread fraud!

Roanmore · 02-11-2020 03:38PM

partyguinness wrote: »

I would be more interested in what US voters living in the US have to say.

I was living in the US in 1999 during the run up to the 2000 election. The picture and narrative around Bush (even in NY and Boston) was very different than the left wing bias encountered when I arrived back in Ireland i.e. Bush was came across as a very sensible and electable candidate.

I remember the US election in 2000, Bush always came across as electable especially when he had his father's organisation around him.
Add in the last 2 years of the Clinton term which was mainly about Monica Lewinsky and only a fool would have written him off.

The bias in Ireland was not so much against the man himself but the hawks behind him who pushed the war agenda.

droidus · 02-11-2020 03:38PM

TomOnBoard wrote: »

I wonder how many are stuck in USPS baskets still awaiting processing due to Louis DeJoy sabotage of the Postal System...

It's becoming clear how much Trump was projecting when he said that mail-in ballots were subject to widespread fraud.. He was actually planning his own widespread fraud!

I also dunno how this differs from other years and how many of those unreturned ballot voters will end up voting in person.

That said, their were high levels of unreturned dem ballots in 2016 about 25% of all mail in ballots in Broward County and Miami Dade - which may have had a significant impact on Clinton's performance.

An Ciarraioch · 02-11-2020 03:45PM

Yes, a host of swing state polls:

PA: Biden +9, Biden +7, Biden +14 (!)
MN: Biden +7, Biden +14, Trump +2 (Trafalgar)
WI: Biden +13
FL: Biden +7, Biden +4
Texas: Tie
GA: Biden +3

everlast75 · 02-11-2020 03:58PM

Roanmore wrote: »

I remember the US election in 2000, Bush always came across as electable especially when he had his father's organisation around him.
Add in the last 2 years of the Clinton term which was mainly about Monica Lewinsky and only a fool would have written him off.

The bias in Ireland was not so much against the man himself but the hawks behind him who pushed the war agenda.

The difference in this day and age with Trump is that we get him - unfiltered, through Twitter and extended footage of his interviews.

Years ago, we did not have the same amount of unfiltered access to people in power and especially with Trump, as he craves it.

The idea that the media have "created" a caricature of him is nonsense.

I know the man to be vile, because I have seen unedited footage of him doing vile things.

I know him to be racist, I know the man to be vile, because I have seen unedited footage of him saying racist things.

I know him to be ignorant, I know the man to be vile, because I have seen unedited footage of him being ignorant.

This is the main reason why the MAGA argument against the media is complete and utter nonsense.

letowski · 02-11-2020 04:07PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

That's just the Registered Democrats/Republicans view.

It doesn't take into account the Independents , which based on polling are skewed more for Biden.

Also - Various polls seem to suggest that about twice as many Registered Republicans will vote for Biden vs. Democrats doing the opposite.

Still absolutely all to play for and the on the day voting will be crucial.

I get that. I was just pointing out that the GOP have hit their numbers to make it competitive, particularly in M-D (so far). Biden will need to hit the 60/24 independent split as polling predict. The question on Election day is whether the GOP have cannibalised some of their vote to get the swing they need.

An Ciarraioch · 02-11-2020 04:17PM

And when you look at the Election Project website, the party figures only give Dems a 100k lead over the GOP - of course, more of the 2m Independents will probably lean Democrat, but touch-and-go as to whether that's enough of a buffer against on-the-day votes.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

Foxtrol · 02-11-2020 04:26PM

droidus wrote: »

Like (I'm sure) many people here Ive been following the polls and analysis for months and for quite some time it looked like we would have a strong Biden performance and a probable victory.

In the last week or two I think the uncertainty levels have ratcheted up. Unprecedented early voting, coronavirus, slow turnout of certain demographics in key areas, the possibility violence and civil unrest and mail in ballot suppression, some indicators of improved trump support in some places, more evidence of shy voters.

It could just be the dejavu from 2016, or last minute nerves and the fact that there's so much riding on this, but I honestly can't think of another election in my lifetime when the outcome was so uncertain and also so consequential.

It seems entirely possible that Trump could somehow squeeze a victory, or at least make it tight enough to delay and let SCOTUS do the rest. Conversely it seems like a Biden landslide is within grasp. Most of my friends in the US are nervous wrecks at this stage.

I think the latter is causing you to feel the former. Which would you feel more nervous about, a 50% change of stubbing your toe or a 9% chance of getting shot in the head?

Trump can win but nearly everything is pointing it to it being incredibly unlikely. You don't even have to go back far to see much more uncertain races, in 2012 Obama was only up by 0.7% in polling average in the final polls.

It is actually a very positive thing how tense people are about this race despite the polls, the alternative is what happened in 2016 when people didn't bother to vote or even voted 3rd party.

MJohnston · 02-11-2020 04:36PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

And when you look at the Election Project website, the party figures only give Dems a 100k lead over the GOP - of course, more of the 2m Independents will probably lean Democrat, but touch-and-go as to whether that's enough of a buffer against on-the-day votes.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

But again, that's party registration. Here's a good read on why that's not a particularly useful metric:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-surge-in-republican-voter-registration-might-not-mean-a-surge-in-trump-support/

Party registration comes from the voter registration files in each state. This means that people 'register' for a party when they fill out their voter registration forms. People are likely to do this only when they move house, or if they're highly engaged and want to vote in their respective parties primaries.

This makes party registration a very laggy indicator — how many people move house all that often once they're out of the rental years? People can change their party registration by sending in a new voter registration form, but how many will do that?

I think I saw once that the average party registration stat is about 12 years out of date.

So there's all that.

Then there's the fact that Republican party members will vote for Biden, and Democratic party members will vote for Trump. I can't find the Twitter link, but there was a tweet posted a week ago or so which showed that a good bit more Rs are breaking for Biden than the other way around.

droidus · 02-11-2020 04:39PM

Foxtrol wrote: »

I think the latter is causing you to feel the former. Which would you feel more nervous about, a 50% change of stubbing your toe or a 9% chance of getting shot in the head?

Trump can win but nearly everything is pointing it to it being incredibly unlikely. You don't even have to go back far to see much more uncertain races, in 2012 Obama was only up by 0.7% in polling average in the final polls.

It is actually a very positive thing how tense people are about this race despite the polls, the alternative is what happened in 2016 when people didn't bother to vote or even voted 3rd party.

Yeah, I agree, but like most of us I try my best to make sense of the seeming infinitude of data, opinion and analysis swirling around and come to a judgement based on that, but the contra position is that some (or all) of this is bunk, or at least that important aspects of the true picture are hidden, which undercuts the foundation of any conclusion you can come to.

It doesn't help that we are dealing with such a fundamentally irrational and volatile environment where it seems almost anything is possible. Im still quite hopeful - on paper it all looks pretty good for Biden, but...

droidus · 02-11-2020 04:45PM

Its partly because Trump himself is such an anomaly - not in policies per se, but in his personal style and norm-breaking behaviour. We all know that politics isn't exactly a rational sphere but he's the embodiment of that, the grendel of the irrational impulse in the American psyche.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts · 02-11-2020 04:47PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Outside of Fox , I really can't see any other channel "calling it" on the night.

There will be a massive amount of hedging going on.

I suspect that the chyrons will all be very subdued and riddled with caveats etc.

Yeah, I gotta say, my experience of news networks is that they are pretty circumspect about calling the result. They kind of get in more than enough information before they do so. I don’t even know if Fox will call it prematurely because if they are wrong, they’ll be left embarrassed.

Christy42 · 02-11-2020 04:49PM

I would say OANN will be the only ones to call it. The people calling it for Fox won't be the likes of Tucker, they will be biased but realistic.

02-11-2020 05:30PM

Last time the guy who makes the call on Fox was very sensible. If the polls are accurate and Biden wins a bunch of swing states by 8% then it'll be clear and obvious on the night and they'll call it. I said it before, the media need to show some nerve and report on clear and obvious truths.

duploelabs · 02-11-2020 05:31PM

Christy42 wrote: »

I would say OANN will be the only ones to call it. The people calling it for Fox won't be the likes of Tucker, they will be biased but realistic.

Tucker, though his own legal defence, would come under the fox entertainment rather than the fox news banner

UpBack1234 · 02-11-2020 05:34PM

duploelabs wrote: »

Tucker, though his own legal defence, would come under the fox entertainment rather than the fox news banner

The ole 'performance art' defence

US Presidential Election 2020

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