US Presidential Election 2020

froog

slight bump for biden in pennsylvannia the last few days.

UpBack1234

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Hmm that's odd. I have that page bookmarked and when I checked it earlier the lone poll I saw in there was the Trafalgar one (I even checked to see if I had had the filter on or something)


Nice to see the PA lead holding up with Monmouth

Biden takes PA (or NC or GA) Trump is toast - Florida or no Florida.

droidus

partyguinness wrote: »

That type of language is really unhelpful and does not paint you in a very good light. Is that based on your personal and perhaps professional experience of living in the US and your dealing with Bush personally?

Did you think he stole the 2004 election also or what excuse have you for that result?

I don't want to stray off topic, but I hardly think you need to have dealt with Bush personally to have a negative opinion of the man who allowed 911 to happen, killed about a million people in Iraq and destabilized an entire region leading to the formation of ISIS, oversaw a global financial crisis which stemmed from domestic US policies and often had trouble stringing sentences together.

As for the 2000 election and the Florida recount, the history there is well documented for anyone who cares to look, and indeed as some of the personalities involved are now in SCOTUS we may see that precedent repeated.

Brussels Sprout

partyguinness wrote: »

I would be more interested in what US voters living in the US have to say.

I was living in the US in 1999 during the run up to the 2000 election. The picture and narrative around Bush (even in NY and Boston) was very different than the left wing bias encountered when I arrived back in Ireland i.e. Bush was came across as a very sensible and electable candidate.

They can't have found him too electable since he lost NY by 25% and Massachusetts by 27%!

MJohnston

Quin_Dub wrote: »

538 have put up a view of where each state will be in relation to the vote count on Election night

So really only Florida of the really key states are likely to have anything approaching a result on the night.

I posted this a few pages back, along with this more detailed 538 analysis of the Election Night schedule: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/both-candidates-might-fall-short-of-270-electoral-votes-on-election-night-but-how-close-might-they-get/

Essentially — yes it looks like FL might be the only state to have full results by election night, but we're going to also know plenty from NC, GA, and AZ by Wednesday morning. And if the Biden margins in WI and MI are as high as the polling suggests, we could see those become obvious quite early on too.

Quin_Dub

duploelabs wrote: »

Won't stop the newscasters calling it

Outside of Fox , I really can't see any other channel "calling it" on the night.

There will be a massive amount of hedging going on.

I suspect that the chyrons will all be very subdued and riddled with caveats etc.

duploelabs

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Outside of Fox , I really can't see any other channel "calling it" on the night.

There will be a massive amount of hedging going on.

I suspect that the chyrons will all be very subdued and riddled with caveats etc.

They've done it consistently on every election night for the past 30 years

MJohnston

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Outside of Fox , I really can't see any other channel "calling it" on the night.

There will be a massive amount of hedging going on.

I suspect that the chyrons will all be very subdued and riddled with caveats etc.

The dumbest, most utterly brainless thing about the GOP this time around is that they've telegraphed almost every single voter suppression technique they're going to use loudly and clearly for weeks.

The last two weeks in particular have ensured that most TV networks will be extremely careful about caveating all of their projections and estimates.

This was such an utterly ****ing stupid move on the part of the Trump campaign that it almost seems like 3D chess. But if they were smart enough to pull that off they wouldn't be working for Trump.

Quin_Dub

duploelabs wrote: »

They've done it consistently on every election night for the past 30 years

Indeed , but I think there is a real recognition of how "different" this one is.

I suspect that there will be a much higher emphasis given to what % of votes are counted and also the various rules around when mail-in ballots can be received etc.

Not saying they won't be talking about scenarios endlessly , but they are going to be heavily surrounded by caveats in abundance.

MJohnston

duploelabs wrote: »

They've done it consistently on every election night for the past 30 years

In fairness to Fox, they've been able to do that for the past 30 years because elections haven't changed much in terms of process since then.

This year is massively different from every single modern US election. The level of early and mail-in voting may even give Fox pause.

I'll also add to this that while Fox News' "entertainment" side is awful, their polling outfit is excellent (A- from 538) and their decision desk is independent and accurate.

UpBack1234

Francie Barrett wrote: »

SNIP

I think people need to prep themselves for the still quite possible scenario that Trump will win. Republican base turnout is far more reliable than Dems and polling has become far less reliable, globally, mostly thanks to social media-driven paranoia.

MJohnston

UpBack1234 wrote: »

I think people need to prep themselves for the still quite possible scenario that Trump will win. Republican base turnout is far more reliable than Dems and polling has become far less reliable, globally, mostly thanks to social media-driven paranoia.

I don't know about globally, but that's definitely not true of the US:

UpBack1234

MJohnston wrote: »

I don't know about globally, but that's definitely not true of the US:

Missed on 2016 tho...

Quin_Dub

UpBack1234 wrote: »

I think people need to prep themselves for the still quite possible scenario that Trump will win. Republican base turnout is far more reliable than Dems and polling has become far less reliable, globally, mostly thanks to social media-driven paranoia.

Trump can definitely still win , but it would be against the odds.

I have not seen any evidence that polling is "far less reliable" now than before.

The Interpretation of polling data however is all over the map , made worse by Social Media , but the actual hard science of probabilities etc. remain fairly solid.

Depending on which source you are using Trump has between a 10% and 20% chance of winning.

That is absolutely not zero and in a two horse race, a 1 in 5 or 1 in 10 chance is definitely still in the game.

Trump needs to roll a hard 7 three or four times in a row to win . Highly unlikely , but not impossible.

droidus

Some positive news from Florida. Yesterday's souls to polls drive seems to have worked.

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1323263321819197440

TomOnBoard

droidus wrote: »

Some positive news from Florida. Yesterday's souls to polls drive seems to have worked.

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1323263321819197440

That's a heck of a lot of vote-by-mail ballots not yet returned!!!

CorkRed93

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323266472152600576

These are some mad numbers. Polling is pretty much dead if Trump wins.

valoren

According to the 538 if Biden wins PA then he has a 98% chance of winning. If he wins Florida he has a 99% chance. He only needs one. Trump needs them both or else win a slew of states he is currently behind in.

Now if Biden loses both PA and FL then he can still win by taking the states he's currently favoured to win. Wisconsin (93%), Nevada (87%), Minnesota (95%), Michigan (95%), Illinois (99%). If he doesn't take all those states he is heavily favoured in New Mexico (97%), Virginia (99%), Colorado (96%), New Hampshire (98%), Maine (90%). He is favoured to win Arizona at 70% and tied in North Carolina and Georgia.

everlast75

CorkRed93 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323266472152600576

These are some mad numbers. Polling is pretty much dead if Trump wins.

A lot of people on here know a lot more than me about polling, but it seems to me that there is some short term gain for pollsters to come out with outlandish forecasts in that it is clickbait and drives up revenue, but long term it can destroy your reputation in future elections and it would appear your future research will be automatically rubbished as a result.

letowski

droidus wrote: »

Some positive news from Florida. Yesterday's souls to polls drive seems to have worked.

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1323263321819197440

It was Souls to the Polls day in Florida yesterday.

Interestingly, despite the Democratic concerns coming out of Miami-Dade, they have exceeded their numbers in Broward County. Typically the African American vote turns out on Election day so it will be interesting to see if Obama can get them out tomorrow.

Looks very tight in Florida. Democrats' 110k EVAB advantage is higher than 90k they had in 2016. But that's a disproportionately large EVAB turnout.

MJohnston

MJohnston wrote: »

The dumbest, most utterly brainless thing about the GOP this time around is that they've telegraphed almost every single voter suppression technique they're going to use loudly and clearly for weeks.

The last two weeks in particular have ensured that most TV networks will be extremely careful about caveating all of their projections and estimates.

This was such an utterly ****ing stupid move on the part of the Trump campaign that it almost seems like 3D chess. But if they were smart enough to pull that off they wouldn't be working for Trump.

Leaving people in the cold or rain would seem like a stupid way to treat your voters as well. These people love it. GOP voters are totally fine with winning by losing the popular vote. They're fine with doing everything through the courts. They're fine with voter suppression. These things are features, not bugs remember.

MJohnston

UpBack1234 wrote: »

Missed on 2016 tho...

And they have had big misses in the past too, but your point was that misses have been getting worse. They haven't.

Quin_Dub

letowski wrote: »

It was Souls to the Polls day in Florida yesterday.

Interestingly, despite the Democratic concerns coming out of Miami-Dade, they have exceeded their numbers in Broward County. Typically the African American vote turns out on Election day so it will be interesting to see if Obama can get them out tomorrow.

Looks very tight in Florida. Democrats' 110k EVAB advantage is higher than 90k they had in 2016. But that's a disproportionately large EVAB turnout.

That's just the Registered Democrats/Republicans view.

It doesn't take into account the Independents , which based on polling are skewed more for Biden.

Also - Various polls seem to suggest that about twice as many Registered Republicans will vote for Biden vs. Democrats doing the opposite.

Still absolutely all to play for and the on the day voting will be crucial.

TomOnBoard

TomOnBoard wrote: »

That's a heck of a lot of vote-by-mail ballots not yet returned!!!

I wonder how many are stuck in USPS baskets still awaiting processing due to Louis DeJoy sabotage of the Postal System...

It's becoming clear how much Trump was projecting when he said that mail-in ballots were subject to widespread fraud.. He was actually planning his own widespread fraud!

Roanmore

partyguinness wrote: »

I would be more interested in what US voters living in the US have to say.

I was living in the US in 1999 during the run up to the 2000 election. The picture and narrative around Bush (even in NY and Boston) was very different than the left wing bias encountered when I arrived back in Ireland i.e. Bush was came across as a very sensible and electable candidate.

I remember the US election in 2000, Bush always came across as electable especially when he had his father's organisation around him.
Add in the last 2 years of the Clinton term which was mainly about Monica Lewinsky and only a fool would have written him off.

The bias in Ireland was not so much against the man himself but the hawks behind him who pushed the war agenda.

droidus

TomOnBoard wrote: »

I wonder how many are stuck in USPS baskets still awaiting processing due to Louis DeJoy sabotage of the Postal System...

It's becoming clear how much Trump was projecting when he said that mail-in ballots were subject to widespread fraud.. He was actually planning his own widespread fraud!

I also dunno how this differs from other years and how many of those unreturned ballot voters will end up voting in person.

That said, their were high levels of unreturned dem ballots in 2016 about 25% of all mail in ballots in Broward County and Miami Dade - which may have had a significant impact on Clinton's performance.

An Ciarraioch

Yes, a host of swing state polls:

PA: Biden +9, Biden +7, Biden +14 (!)
MN: Biden +7, Biden +14, Trump +2 (Trafalgar)
WI: Biden +13
FL: Biden +7, Biden +4
Texas: Tie
GA: Biden +3

everlast75

Roanmore wrote: »

I remember the US election in 2000, Bush always came across as electable especially when he had his father's organisation around him.
Add in the last 2 years of the Clinton term which was mainly about Monica Lewinsky and only a fool would have written him off.

The bias in Ireland was not so much against the man himself but the hawks behind him who pushed the war agenda.

The difference in this day and age with Trump is that we get him - unfiltered, through Twitter and extended footage of his interviews.

Years ago, we did not have the same amount of unfiltered access to people in power and especially with Trump, as he craves it.

The idea that the media have "created" a caricature of him is nonsense.

I know the man to be vile, because I have seen unedited footage of him doing vile things.

I know him to be racist, I know the man to be vile, because I have seen unedited footage of him saying racist things.

I know him to be ignorant, I know the man to be vile, because I have seen unedited footage of him being ignorant.

This is the main reason why the MAGA argument against the media is complete and utter nonsense.

letowski

Quin_Dub wrote: »

That's just the Registered Democrats/Republicans view.

It doesn't take into account the Independents , which based on polling are skewed more for Biden.

Also - Various polls seem to suggest that about twice as many Registered Republicans will vote for Biden vs. Democrats doing the opposite.

Still absolutely all to play for and the on the day voting will be crucial.

I get that. I was just pointing out that the GOP have hit their numbers to make it competitive, particularly in M-D (so far). Biden will need to hit the 60/24 independent split as polling predict. The question on Election day is whether the GOP have cannibalised some of their vote to get the swing they need.

An Ciarraioch

And when you look at the Election Project website, the party figures only give Dems a 100k lead over the GOP - of course, more of the 2m Independents will probably lean Democrat, but touch-and-go as to whether that's enough of a buffer against on-the-day votes.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html