US Presidential Election 2020

droidus · 02-11-2020 1:08pm

538 have come out with their traditional last minute disclaimer.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/im-here-to-remind-you-that-trump-can-still-win/

Here’s what it seems safe to say, though. In an election that is very close, a 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court is likely to side with Trump. Our model shows a 4 percent chance of an election that winds up with one or more decisive states within 0.5 percentage points, close enough to trigger a recount. If you want to round up Trump’s odds slightly by assuming he wins the lion’s share of those 4 percent of cases, plus most of the 0.5 percent of the time that the election ends up in an Electoral College tie, I wouldn’t strenuously object to that. Mostly, though, I’d just be worried about the meltdown that could occur if a recount or a tie comes up. The odds are against it, but the stakes are awfully high.

And politico have done a local report on each of the swing states - slightly more encouraging than the last selection of articles I linked to. If you start here you'll find the other states at the end of the article.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/02/swing-states-arizona-433248

TomOnBoard · 02-11-2020 1:11pm

ELM327 wrote: »

These arent the silent votes though.
The silent voter is the one who claims to be undecided when polled but then ticks the Trump box on the day.

And the folks in Trumpland (such as Retirement village folks in FL) who say they'll vote Trump (out of fear of neighbour ostracising them) but actually vote for Biden.

Quin_Dub · 02-11-2020 1:12pm

TomOnBoard wrote: »

I stopped looking at national poll results some time ago. The only pre-election polls that matter are those on a state by state basis.

I don't disagree , but the evidence suggests that the "Electoral College effect" means that a GOP candidate can lose the popular vote by about 4% and still be in the mix for the overall win.

Losses beyond that margin and the chances of a GOP EC win decrease exponentially.

Brussels Sprout · 02-11-2020 1:12pm

There was always a big question mark over Trafalgar given their record of constantly issuing polls that look better for Republicans

Their chief pollster dispensed entirely with the facade of neutrality last night on Fox News:

https://twitter.com/existentialfish/status/1323087162938720256

MJohnston · 02-11-2020 1:13pm

partyguinness wrote: »

In Michael Moore's opinion you should automatically half Biden's poll leads in any given State. This brings most States withiin the margin of error and too close to call.

This makes no sense — if you believe in the methodology of polls and their outcomes, then the margin of error is something that builds in its own uncertainty.

If you don't trust the methodology or results of polls, and you're doing something completely arbitrary like cutting them in half, then why would the margin of error suddenly matter? You've already undermined the objectivity of the polling, so the margin of error is meaningless.

MJohnston · 02-11-2020 1:15pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

There was always a big question mark over Trafalgar given their record of constantly issuing polls that look better for Republicans

Their chief pollster dispensed entirely with the facade of neutrality last night on Fox News:

As Nate Silver pointed out last week, they also issued a bunch of polls that were funded by partisan groups, and did not disclose this. I suspect they'll get a rating downgrade post-election, and I'd imagine Silver only keeps them in the averages because he likes to include outliers to be as objective as possible.

seamus · 02-11-2020 1:16pm

droidus wrote: »

538 have come out with their traditional last minute disclaimer.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/im-here-to-remind-you-that-trump-can-still-win/

Speaks to what a farce the US system is.

"If it's a very close race, the Supreme Court will hand the election to the candidate they like the best".

Incredible. The US spent so many years toppling democracies and replacing them with dictatorships, it didn't realise the same thing was happening at home, just more slowly.

droidus · 02-11-2020 1:18pm

Like (I'm sure) many people here Ive been following the polls and analysis for months and for quite some time it looked like we would have a strong Biden performance and a probable victory.

In the last week or two I think the uncertainty levels have ratcheted up. Unprecedented early voting, coronavirus, slow turnout of certain demographics in key areas, the possibility violence and civil unrest and mail in ballot suppression, some indicators of improved trump support in some places, more evidence of shy voters.

It could just be the dejavu from 2016, or last minute nerves and the fact that there's so much riding on this, but I honestly can't think of another election in my lifetime when the outcome was so uncertain and also so consequential.

It seems entirely possible that Trump could somehow squeeze a victory, or at least make it tight enough to delay and let SCOTUS do the rest. Conversely it seems like a Biden landslide is within grasp. Most of my friends in the US are nervous wrecks at this stage.

Quin_Dub · 02-11-2020 1:18pm

MJohnston wrote: »

As Nate Silver pointed out last week, they also issued a bunch of polls that were funded by partisan groups, and did not disclose this. I suspect they'll get a rating downgrade post-election, and I'd imagine Silver only keeps them in the averages because he likes to include outliers to be as objective as possible.

Watch out for the * beside the poll info on both RCP and 538.

The Asterisk means that it was a poll paid for by one side or the other. Doesn't mean that the polling is wrong , but they are funded by groups directly or indirectly linked to the candidates.

Brussels Sprout · 02-11-2020 1:19pm

Hah right on cue, I see that the only poll out so far today is Trafalgar showing Trump up by 3% in Michigan :pac:

TomOnBoard · 02-11-2020 1:23pm

Water John wrote: »

The logic is that, once a Dem candidate is about +6 they can overcome the differential between the popular vote and the Electoral College.

Ok. I see that.. I have felt that, with polarisation being so massive in US right now, and huge state populations like in California and New York being so pro-Dem, they would skew national figures in such as way as to be misleading. But, if there is a basis for adjusting like you say, then I too relish that national Biden +8 figure..

droidus · 02-11-2020 1:23pm

Ralston's final prediction on Nevada is Biden +4.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/biden-will-win-nevada-blue-wave-should-help-down-ballot

If he's right, that puts NV within about 1 point of the polling average (-1), and probably augurs well for Arizona.

partyguinness · 02-11-2020 1:43pm

I would be more interested in what US voters living in the US have to say.

I was living in the US in 1999 during the run up to the 2000 election. The picture and narrative around Bush (even in NY and Boston) was very different than the left wing bias encountered when I arrived back in Ireland i.e. Bush was came across as a very sensible and electable candidate.

droidus · 02-11-2020 1:45pm

partyguinness wrote: »

I was living in the US in 1999 during the run up to the 2000 election. The picture and narrative around Bush (even in NY and Boston) was very different than the left wing bias encountered when I arrived back in Ireland i.e. Bush was came across as a very sensible and electable candidate.

lol, yeah, and its precisely that attitude that got us in the mess we're in today and now has most of the world regarding the US as a basket case.

partyguinness · 02-11-2020 1:49pm

droidus wrote: »

lol, yeah, and its precisely that attitude that got us in the mess we're in today and now has most of the world regarding the US as a basket case.

Who is "we" and "us" amd whose "attitude" are you referring to?

Sorry are you a US voter?

everlast75 · 02-11-2020 1:55pm

partyguinness wrote: »

I would be more interested in what US voters living in the US have to say.

I was living in the US in 1999 during the run up to the 2000 election. The picture and narrative around Bush (even in NY and Boston) was very different than the left wing bias encountered when I arrived back in Ireland i.e. Bush was came across as a very sensible and electable candidate.

Why are you on an Irish forum where the vast majority of posters are Irish?

droidus · 02-11-2020 2:02pm

partyguinness wrote: »

Who is "we" and "us" amd whose "attitude" are you referring to?

Sorry are you a US voter?

'We' and 'us' is the world, and the 'attitude' is that of American voters who regarded a mentally deficient and deeply incompetent war criminal who stole an election as 'sensible' and 'electable'.

MJohnston · 02-11-2020 2:11pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Hah right on cue, I see that the only poll out so far today is Trafalgar showing Trump up by 3% in Michigan :pac:

There have been loads of polls out today!
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

partyguinness · 02-11-2020 2:19pm

everlast75 wrote: »

Why are you on an Irish forum where the vast majority of posters are Irish?

Say what now? I am on an Irish forum because I am Irish.

My point is that I would be more interested in hearing more from US poster that may be around here so we get a better picture of the position in the US on the ground.

froog · 02-11-2020 2:20pm

fox news's "The Five" i.e. 4 MAGAs and a Liberal, was utter carnage yesterday. ended up as a very agitated shouting match between gutfeld and williams, both accusing the other side of inciting violence and referencing people murdered during the riots from both sides. it was ugly to watch. hopefully not representative of the wider population but the animosity and downright hatred and mistrust between the opposing sides is so bad right now you would seriously fear for violence after Tuesday.

Quin_Dub · 02-11-2020 2:22pm

538 have put up a view of where each state will be in relation to the vote count on Election night

So really only Florida of the really key states are likely to have anything approaching a result on the night.

partyguinness · 02-11-2020 2:22pm

droidus wrote: »

'We' and 'us' is the world, and the 'attitude' is that of American voters who regarded a mentally deficient and deeply incompetent war criminal who stole an election as 'sensible' and 'electable'.

That type of language is really unhelpful and does not paint you in a very good light. Is that based on your personal and perhaps professional experience of living in the US and your dealing with Bush personally?

Did you think he stole the 2004 election also or what excuse have you for that result?

MJohnston · 02-11-2020 2:22pm

partyguinness wrote: »

Say what now? I am on an Irish forum because I am Irish.

My point is that I would be more interested in hearing more from US poster that may be around here so we get a better picture of the position in the US on the ground.

It might be rather rude and silly to complain about hearing about the opinions of a lot of Irish people on an Irish forum, one might say.

MJohnston · 02-11-2020 2:23pm

OMG it finally happened, we got a "Clearly favored" from 538:

UpBack1234 · 02-11-2020 2:26pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

538 have put up a view of where each state will be in relation to the vote count on Election night

So really only Florida of the really key states are likely to have anything approaching a result on the night.

And Florida is likely to be among the most contested, most litigated even at that - Although I think Trump will retain it ultimately.

duploelabs · 02-11-2020 2:26pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

538 have put up a view of where each state will be in relation to the vote count on Election night

So really only Florida of the really key states are likely to have anything approaching a result on the night.

Won't stop the newscasters calling it

partyguinness · 02-11-2020 2:26pm

MJohnston wrote: »

It might be rather rude and silly to complain about hearing about the opinions of a lot of Irish people on an Irish forum, one might say.

Who is complaining?

froog · 02-11-2020 2:28pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

538 have put up a view of where each state will be in relation to the vote count on Election night

So really only Florida of the really key states are likely to have anything approaching a result on the night.

interesting. a florida biden win would be good night trump though.

MJohnston · 02-11-2020 2:29pm

partyguinness wrote: »

Who is complaining?

Who is saying that anyone is complaining? I merely posed a hypothetical

Brussels Sprout · 02-11-2020 2:29pm

MJohnston wrote: »

There have been loads of polls out today!
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

Hmm that's odd. I have that page bookmarked and when I checked it earlier the lone poll I saw in there was the Trafalgar one (I even checked to see if I had had the filter on or something)

Nice to see the PA lead holding up with Monmouth

US Presidential Election 2020

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