US Presidential Election 2020

TomOnBoard · 01-11-2020 11:13PM

JoeGil wrote: »

It didn't whimper out. It just wasn't reported.
I would expect voters who are just hearing the facts to be influenced.

It wasnt reported by any self-respecting media outlet because it was a load of irrelevant ****e... So, someone found a photo of a guy passed out with a crack- pipe on the pillow, or the same chap smoking a ciggie in the bath... Over 21 million people in USA have an addiction to at least one substance and thats not counting 'casual' users. So, whats so special about this guy? It's not like he's running for election...

It's a pathetic story, poorly handled by Trump's propaganda idiots, and most people see it a just another shiver of a dying wasp! Aaaand, it's a gross insult to all those 21 million who have to fight every single day in their battle against their addictions. NONE of them would want to see photos of themselves when they're in the throes of their addiction.

Give it a rest! This far-right addiction to Hunter is an embarassment at this stage!

Overheal · 01-11-2020 11:14PM

TomOnBoard wrote: »

It wasnt reported by any self-respecting media outlet because it was a load of irrelevant ****e... So, someone found a photo of a guy passed out with a crack- pipe on the pillow, or the same chap smoking a ciggie in the bath... Over 21 million people in USA have an addiction to at least one substance and thats not counting 'casual' users. So, whats so special about this guy? It's not like he's running for election...

It's a pathetic story, poorly handled by Trump's propaganda idiots, and most people see it a just another shiver of a dying wasp! Aaaand, it's a gross insult to all those 21 million who have to fight every single day in their battle against their addictions. NONE of them would want to see photos of themselves when they're in the throes of their addiction.

Give it a rest! This far-right addiction to Hunter is an embarassment at this stage!

It's the same level of shyte that we've heard in the impeachment

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NidVfdQk_So

Gaetz himself is a product of nepotism.

prawnsambo · 01-11-2020 11:19PM

What's worse is that this chap (Hunter Biden) has been battling addiction for years, has (apparently) been clean of recent years and he's the focus of an absolute torrent of made up stories, leaks, hacks and sundry other personal attacks and invasions and he's not even standing for dog catcher in his local county. I can't imagine the strain he's under right now. And for the square root of feck all. It's just disgraceful and abhorrent. They can't find anything on Mr. Clean, so they go after his recovering addict one remaining child.

gmisk · 01-11-2020 11:22PM

Overheal wrote: »

It's the same level of shyte that we've heard in the impeachment

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NidVfdQk_So

Gaetz himself is a product of nepotism.

Ha ha that is a great clip.
Absolutely destroyed him.

Gaetz is an odd one, that story about his "son" is bonkers.
The appearing in a gas mask....ethic violations..DUI...threatening michael cohen...his ties to holocaust deniers like Charles Johnson..

An Ciarraioch · 01-11-2020 11:23PM

Water John wrote: »

Some states will be releasing the results from the early and post in ballots very soon after closing. That may help give some indication. For example they know the % registered as GOP, Dems and Ind of those who have voted that way. If there's a skew in either way that may show it, esp which way the Inds are breaking.

For those of us watching in Ireland, we'll learn most of the key overnight results by 2 a.m, and indeed many even by 1:

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1323024540511965184

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1323026556281851914

An Ciarraioch · 01-11-2020 11:30PM

dark crystal wrote: »

Will there be exit polls conducted on the 3rd?

If it's like previous years, then the second the polls close, TV companies will say "We're calling State X for Biden, and State X for Trump", but only if they're ultra-safe states like Vermont and West Virginia.

Quin_Dub · 01-11-2020 11:41PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

If it's like previous years, then the second the polls close, TV companies will say "We're calling State X for Biden, and State X for Trump", but only if they're ultra-safe states like Vermont and West Virginia.

I don't think they will... I suspect that most of the media will be super circumspect about calling States on the night.

Unless they have actually counted the vast majority of votes, which given the volume of early/mail in votes there aren't going to be many at that stage on the night.

Gbear · 01-11-2020 11:49PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Federal judge deciding about the 120,000 votes in Harris county, Houston

It's just bizarre that something so basic as voting is being subjected to so much fud.

Do democrats have any plans for resolving all this nonsense around voting next time around (assuming they gain all 3 wings)? Will we be hearing same stuff in 5 years?

There's been a bit of momentum behind a "new voting rights act" of some sort. Obama made a speech after the death of John Lewis about it, tying it to Lewis, and he pointedly picked out the filibuster as an obstacle that should be gotten rid of if it impeded such a piece of legislation.

If the Democrats have any sense of self-preservation they will. The Republicans are not going to stop trying to push minority rule any time soon.

They need to avoid the mistakes of Labour in the UK who had the chance to push for some form of PR, and are paying for their greed ever since.

TomOnBoard · 02-11-2020 12:03AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Federal judge deciding about the 120,000 votes in Harris county, Houston

It's just bizarre that something so basic as voting is being subjected to so much fud.

Do democrats have any plans for resolving all this nonsense around voting next time around (assuming they gain all 3 wings)? Will we be hearing same stuff in 5 years?

What's even more bizarre is that the State Supreme Court blew this case away already!

Here's an interesting article on Slate dealing with some background and legal issues involved:

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/10/texas-drive-through-voting-throw-out-ballots.html

Brussels Sprout · 02-11-2020 12:33AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Good post, let's hope for change

I believe Maine already moved to rank voting https://www.npr.org/2020/10/07/921287288/how-maines-ranked-choice-voting-system-works

So hopefully in time rest of US becomes more normal when it comes to elections, hell maybe they can learn from this Republic

New York City have also decided to move to ranked choice voting, although I'm not sure if they have actually had any elections with it yet (perhaps this week).

The fact that a country as large and diverse as the USA has only 2 political parties is preposterous. First past the post is not good for democracy.

Francie Barrett · 02-11-2020 12:48AM

Pennsylvania today apparently.

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TomOnBoard · 02-11-2020 01:01AM

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Pennsylvania today apparently.

Sheer Madness!! Yet another Super-Spreader event in MAGA-land!!

droidus · 02-11-2020 01:13AM

A series of Politico pieces that collectively point towards a stronger performance for Trump

The importance of Pennsylvania and the Trump campaigns efforts there:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/01/pennsylvania-trump-biden-campaign-433798

A credible look at why the shy trump voter might be a real thing:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/29/2020-polls-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619

How he might pull it off:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/01/how-trump-could-win-election-433703

Some decent info and analysis and worth a read if you want to feed your anxiety.

Shelga · 02-11-2020 01:33AM

There’s no “election silence” law in the US, right? Does that mean the candidates could hold rallies the day of the election, if they wanted? As long as it’s not near a polling station, is my understanding.

Brussels Sprout · 02-11-2020 01:41AM

Shelga wrote: »

There’s no “election silence” law in the US, right? Does that mean the candidates could hold rallies the day of the election, if they wanted? As long as it’s not near a polling station, is my understanding.

I guess so. Only thing is that election rallies are usually held at night and the polls close relatively early (7-8 pm usually) in most states so it probably wouldn't achieve much. They could try and have one during the day but since it's a weekday and a work day for most people it might be tricky to get a decent turnout.

Manic Moran · 02-11-2020 03:19AM

droidus wrote: »

A series of Politico pieces that collectively point towards a stronger performance for Trump

The importance of Pennsylvania and the Trump campaigns efforts there:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/01/pennsylvania-trump-biden-campaign-433798

I was in the Keystone State last weekend, drove from Philly to Gettysburg. I was astounded at the amount of Trump signs (and a Trump convoy) I saw, way more than I see here in Texas. Maybe it's because it's a swing state and there's more call to bother advertising.

Obviously there's a difference between I-76 and the city of Philadelphia, I'm sure there are more people within a mile of Philly city center than there are between Harrisburg and Philly, but there's a definite fight going on there.

listermint · 02-11-2020 09:41AM

Manic Moran wrote: »

I was in the Keystone State last weekend, drove from Philly to Gettysburg. I was astounded at the amount of Trump signs (and a Trump convoy) I saw, way more than I see here in Texas. Maybe it's because it's a swing state and there's more call to bother advertising.

Obviously there's a difference between I-76 and the city of Philadelphia, I'm sure there are more people within a mile of Philly city center than there are between Harrisburg and Philly, but there's a definite fight going on there.

But I thought there was such a thing a silent trump voter.

All the ones we've seen so far have been pretty vulgar about the open support. Even so far as to attack the opposition front runner. And trump tweeting out support of such actions in twitter only hours ago.

America is broken.

And it's broken for all to see.

Brian? · 02-11-2020 09:55AM

Manic Moran wrote: »

I was in the Keystone State last weekend, drove from Philly to Gettysburg. I was astounded at the amount of Trump signs (and a Trump convoy) I saw, way more than I see here in Texas. Maybe it's because it's a swing state and there's more call to bother advertising.

Obviously there's a difference between I-76 and the city of Philadelphia, I'm sure there are more people within a mile of Philly city center than there are between Harrisburg and Philly, but there's a definite fight going on there.

I don't think anyone is doubting that Trump is fighting hard in Pa.

There's a massive urban/rural divide in Pa. Even Pittsburgh doesn't follow the urban trend.

Quin_Dub · 02-11-2020 10:37AM

TomOnBoard wrote: »

Sheer Madness!! Yet another Super-Spreader event in MAGA-land!!

I will never understand the whole "rally" thing.

Covid or not , why on earth would you want to go to a political rally - for anyone?

50+ Years ago before TV and more recently the Internet etc. they were probably the only way to get to see/hear the candidate and what they were about , but since then?

I just don't get it.

is_that_so · 02-11-2020 10:44AM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

I will never understand the whole "rally" thing.

Covid or not , why on earth would you want to go to a political rally - for anyone?

50+ Years ago before TV and more recently the Internet etc. they were probably the only way to get to see/hear the candidate and what they were about , but since then?

I just don't get it.

Razzmatazz and instant gratification for both candidates and public. People like to be close to who they are voting for and they are a good way to get a decent captive audience. In Trump's case they are the bubble he desperately needs.

Christy42 · 02-11-2020 10:46AM

Interesting he doesn't want the military votes counted either. The deadline for their arrival to be counted is well after midnight of the election night with Trump threatening to bring in the lawyers at midnight.

I am sure he will fail at this but the point remains that he actively wants to disenfranchised people and is getting cheered for it.

ELM327 · 02-11-2020 10:49AM

listermint wrote: »

But I thought there was such a thing a silent trump voter.

All the ones we've seen so far have been pretty vulgar about the open support. Even so far as to attack the opposition front runner. And trump tweeting out support of such actions in twitter only hours ago.

America is broken.

And it's broken for all to see.

These arent the silent votes though.
The silent voter is the one who claims to be undecided when polled but then ticks the Trump box on the day.

VinLieger · 02-11-2020 10:51AM

Christy42 wrote: »

Interesting he doesn't want the military votes counted either. The deadline for their arrival to be counted is well after midnight of the election night with Trump threatening to bring in the lawyers at midnight.

I am sure he will fail at this but the point remains that he actively wants to disenfranchised people and is getting cheered for it.

Also wont the postal votes in many states like florida be counted first if not immediately released upon polls closing? There is every likelihood that by 11:59 PM on tuesday he will still be losing due to the high number of democratic early voting slowing the counting of in person election day voting

Christy42 · 02-11-2020 10:51AM

ELM327 wrote: »

These arent the silent votes though.
The silent voter is the one who claims to be undecided when polled.

I have yet to see evidence in any election anywhere that this is a thing. Ever. I have seen it claimed it pretty much every election as well but when the results are in the polls tend to be pretty close.

VinLieger · 02-11-2020 10:53AM

Christy42 wrote: »

I have yet to see evidence in any election anywhere that this is a thing. Ever. I have seen it claimed it pretty much every election as well but when the results are in the polls tend to be pretty close.

Its also funny that republicans push this as their narrative, they are admitting their supporters feel so much shame about voting for them that they wont publicly admit to doing it.

ELM327 · 02-11-2020 10:59AM

Christy42 wrote: »

I have yet to see evidence in any election anywhere that this is a thing. Ever. I have seen it claimed it pretty much every election as well but when the results are in the polls tend to be pretty close.

Like the last time?
Hillary was between +5 and +10, along with projected EC victory, right up to the day of the election.

MJohnston · 02-11-2020 11:10AM

ELM327 wrote: »

Like the last time?
Hillary was between +5 and +10, along with projected EC victory, right up to the day of the election.

That's not true.

Christy42 · 02-11-2020 11:12AM

ELM327 wrote: »

Like the last time?
Hillary was between +5 and +10, along with projected EC victory, right up to the day of the election.

She was definitely not +10 the day of the election after the Comey news.

The Comeys news hit the polls last minute and they were still within the margin of error.

538 had Hilary winning the popular vote by 3.5%, she won by 2% on election night. 1.5% is not a sign of a shy vote.

The issue of the national polls not capturing the electoral college was even highlighted by some before the election,

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-odds-of-an-electoral-college-popular-vote-split-are-increasing/

MJohnston · 02-11-2020 11:12AM

Solid PA and FL results here for Biden from Morning Consult (B/C rating on 538):

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323205067726532608/photo/1

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Water John · 02-11-2020 11:17AM

Late polls could be quite accurate considering how many would have voted already this time. It's half an exit poll really.

US Presidential Election 2020

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