Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

JP100 · 31-10-2020 11:31pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Can’t even stay consistent with your buffoonery from just a few hours ago.

The impact from school midterm, whether a four year old Junior, or 65 year old teacher on the edge of retirement, could not show up in the data until the last day or two at the earliest. Given that cases from school would then transfer to households the real impact can’t be known for a few more days yet

I think you've embarrassed yourself enough in this thread at this stage by showing a complete misunderstanding of how the virus works on a very basic level. You can't even get your head around the fact that most people show symptoms after 4/5 days, some even less than that. If you can't even understand that basic concept there's no hope for you.

31-10-2020 11:32pm

JP100 wrote: »

I think you've embarrassed yourself enough in this thread at this stage by showing a complete misunderstanding of how the virus works on a very basic level. You can't even get your head around the fact that most people show symptoms after 4/5 days, some even less than that. If you can't even understand that basic concept there's no hope for you.

There is one person embarrassing themselves alright.

JP100 · 31-10-2020 11:35pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There is one person embarrassing themselves alright.

Tell me this, when the schools are back a week or so and numbers start to rise again, what excuse are you going be to give for that?!

Jimson · 31-10-2020 11:37pm

With 65% of cases now been people under 45 and most people been asymptomatic i really love to know the real numbers of people infected daily.

Would it be closer to 2000 a day?

MelbourneMan · 31-10-2020 11:39pm

JP100 wrote: »

Cases are indeed falling and very much further aided and abetted by the fact that schools have been closed going on 9 days. Failure to acknowledge that shows a complete misunderstanding of how this virus works and the mere fact that it takes on average just 4 to 5 days for an infected individual to display symptoms.

Hello.

There is an nuance to the dynamic that appear missing in the much of the discourse I see from my quick skim here.

New cases were probably decreasing before the move to L5, showing that L3+ as we might call it, was having a curtailing effect on the transmission rate. But it is incorrect - and I would like to be very clear on this point - for anyone to deduce from this that L3 was going to serve our purposes. It was not. Not because the cases were not going to be reduced, but because the absolute numbers were already too high, and the rate of increase was already too steep on the exponential curve, and was going to exceed the capacity of the HSE to handle the case load. A stronger action was necessary to increase the rate of reduction in cases in a short period. This will now come through very dramatically of the coming week I project.

Overall, I feel the controls implemented of the last two months will prove on analysis to have been very well judged.

Furthermore, I can add that the learning outcome for all from the trend in the virus here and overseas over the last 5 months, is that 'opening up' as it has been presented is not an option in the period prior to virus roll out.

We now need politicians, the informed influential media, and the people of Ireland themselves, to come to acceptance of the fact the Level three with some plusses and minuses is the real 'Living with Covid' for the foreseeable medium term. Levels 1 and 2 have no practical role to play and are an unfortunate tantalising misleading of the public, if we are to avoid yoyo lockdowns and openings. We need leadership now, to gain acceptance to the reality that pubs and cafes etc cannot really open at all, that crowds or gatherings of any sorts at sports events are on long term pause, and that theatre, concerts, opera, cinemas and such entertainments are simply not viable with the transmission character of SARS-CoV-2.

MelbourneMan · 31-10-2020 11:41pm

JP100 wrote: »

Tell me this, when the schools are back a week or so and numbers start to rise again, what excuse are you going be to give for that?!

Hello. Modelling, and firm projections now indicate with confidence that this will not happen. Level 5 restrictions, with schools fully open, will supress transmission of the virus to reasonably handleable levels that will not present a capacity problem to the delivery of patient services.

31-10-2020 11:42pm

JP100 wrote: »

Tell me this, when the schools are back a week or so and numbers start to rise again, what excuse are you going be to give for that?!

That is unlikely be the schools because it would take at least 10 days for the effect to become apparent. If cases are rising after 10 days, and nothing else changed, then it can be attributed to schools

Now can you tell me why cases have been falling consistently for 10 days, when midterm only started 8 days ago? Even on your own timeline of 4-5 days from exposure to confirmed case, 7 of the days of falling cases are before any possibility of influence from the school closure. But your timeline is hopelessly underplayed because it doesn’t take in to account transmission to the home and other contacts

Kh1993 · 31-10-2020 11:45pm

The thread is bound to keep going around and around. Everyone has their position and that’s that.

On a side note, out and about tonight and it was such a weird experience. I generally have no time for Halloween, a nuisance to me. But tonight was sad, it was weird, it was quiet and it was heartening to see the humanity of people.

Barely any kids about. So many houses where I am have left bags for trick or treaters out. Barely even touched. Families afraid to pick a bag up. Then you’ve OAPs, bless them, putting bags outside, closing the door and waving kids up to get them. It warms your heart in one way and absolutely breaks it in another. It’s not to downplay things but psychologically there’s going to be so many from this so fckd up, old and young. Through no fault of their own or anyone else, we have people scared of other humans, of contact, of socialising. And that won’t automatically go away in level 2/3/whatever. A lot of damage has been done.

There‘ll be posters here that will be delighted that Halloween has been quiet and they’ve been spared the inconvenience of kids, and that’s fine, dogs won’t have been driven mad etc . But it’s a simplistic view if you take it in one night of isolation. A Christmas like this isn’t worth thinking about. People will be happy pubs/shops are closed but the main thing is human contact. Another major event/holiday without that and we’re in big trouble.

Widdensushi · 31-10-2020 11:45pm

JP100 wrote: »

Tell me this, when the schools are back a week or so and numbers start to rise again, what excuse are you going be to give for that?!

Well the fact that so many young people didn't attend a controlled environment last week where if they show symptoms they will be asked to have a covid test before attending again could mean that many cases have been missed while they weren't attending. That doesn't mean that they were catching covid in school but that more cases are being detected because they were attending school.

mcburns07 · 31-10-2020 11:49pm

Widdensushi wrote: »

Well the fact that so many young people didn't attend a controlled environment last week where if they show symptoms they will be asked to have a covid test before attending again could mean that many cases have been missed while they weren't attending. That doesn't mean that they were catching covid in school but that more cases are being detected because they were attending school.

Is there a notable decrease in the numbers of school going ages testing positive in comparison to other age groups?

Thierry12 · 31-10-2020 11:49pm

Jimson wrote: »

With 65% of cases now been people under 45 and most people been asymptomatic i really love to know the real numbers of people infected daily.

Would it be closer to 2000 a day?

Alot more

Slovakia tested 1 million people today

Caught 10,000 cases

That's 10,000 contagious people with antigen testing, not PCR tests we use here which would have caught way more cases as its so sensitive

Slovakian government think they will catch 30,000 contagious people when they complete testing this weekend

31-10-2020 11:53pm

mcburns07 wrote: »

Is there a notable decrease in the numbers of school going ages testing positive in comparison to other age groups?

Cases among 5 to 14 year olds have increased in the last week, even though overall rate has fallen. They are being tested

JP100 · 31-10-2020 11:53pm

MelbourneMan wrote: »

Hello.

There is an nuance to the dynamic that appear missing in the much of the discourse I see from my quick skim here.

New cases were probably decreasing before the move to L5, showing that L3+ as we might call it, was having a curtailing effect on the transmission rate. But it is incorrect - and I would like to be very clear on this point - for anyone to deduce from this that L3 was going to serve our purposes. It was not. Not because the cases were not going to be reduced, but because the absolute numbers were already too high, and the rate of increase was already too steep on the exponential curve, and was going to exceed the capacity of the HSE to handle the case load. A stronger action was necessary to increase the rate of reduction in cases in a short period. This will now come through very dramatically of the coming week I project.

Overall, I feel the controls implemented of the last two months will prove on analysis to have been very well judged.

Furthermore, I can add that the learning outcome for all from the trend in the virus here and overseas over the last 5 months, is that 'opening up' as it has been presented is not an option in the period prior to virus roll out.

We now need politicians, the informed influential media, and the people of Ireland themselves, to come to acceptance of the fact the Level three with some plusses and minuses is the real 'Living with Covid' for the foreseeable medium term. Levels 1 and 2 have no practical role to play and are an unfortunate tantalising misleading of the public, if we are to avoid yoyo lockdowns and openings. We need leadership now, to gain acceptance to the reality that pubs and cafes etc cannot really open at all, that crowds or gatherings of any sorts at sports events are on long term pause, and that theatre, concerts, opera, cinemas and such entertainments are simply not viable with the transmission character of SARS-CoV-2.

MelbourneMan wrote: »

Hello. Modelling, and firm projections now indicate with confidence that this will not happen. Level 5 restrictions, with schools fully open, will supress transmission of the virus to reasonably handleable levels that will not present a capacity problem to the delivery of patient services.

I'm not sure what you would define as 'reasonably handleable levels' but to go from saying that the schools being closed for going on 9 days now having no effect on the data to saying the schools re-opening up again also having no effect on the data is quite frankly ridiculous.

My prediction is that with the schools being back a week or so numbers will begin to rise again. The only question is; what mental gymnastics will the same posters on here go through in order to try to explain away any such increase in numbers again?!

31-10-2020 11:55pm

JP100 wrote: »

I'm not sure what you would define as 'reasonably handleable levels' but to go from saying that the schools being closed for going on 9 days now having no effect on the data to saying the schools re-opening up again also having no effect on the data is quite frankly ridiculous.

My prediction is that with the schools being back a week or so numbers will begin to rise again. The only question is; what mental gymnastics will the same posters on here go through in order to try to explain away any such increase in numbers again?!

8 days

normanoffside · 31-10-2020 11:55pm

Thierry12 wrote: »

Alot more

Slovakia tested 1 million people today

Caught 10,000 cases

That's 10,000 contagious people with antigen testing, not PCR tests we use here which would have caught way more cases as its so sensitive

Slovakian government think they will catch 30,000 contagious people when they complete testing this weekend

Dr Nolan said we caught 1/3 cases in the first wave and are catching 100% of cases now.

This kind of data shows him for the fool he is.

Plumbthedepths · 01-11-2020 12:00am

caveat emptor wrote: »

Don't often agree with you. The kids here where going to come hell or high water and tbh I would have too back in the day Preprepared bags all divvied out. No comment on the parents letting their kids out but considering they are out everyday playing they couldn't give a **** I guess. Very happy children, minimal risk. If only there were more bonfires to burn away the pox :pac:

I felt very safe ...........

Cheers for the response. I just enjoyed the normality of children coming to the door in costume on Halloween looking for treats or offering tricks. I remembered the tricks I played at that age, the treat is a safer bet .

Jimson · 01-11-2020 12:04am

Thierry12 wrote: »

Alot more

Slovakia tested 1 million people today

Caught 10,000 cases

That's 10,000 contagious people with antigen testing, not PCR tests we use here which would have caught way more cases as its so sensitive

Slovakian government think they will catch 30,000 contagious people when they complete testing this weekend

So really we are just testing people that show symptoms that could be admitted to hospital to keep hospital numbers down. I understand the close contact testing as well that happens because of this.

Them numbers by RTE not really worth a flying feck then really as 85% of people are asytomatic.

JP100 · 01-11-2020 12:04am

Widdensushi wrote: »

Well the fact that so many young people didn't attend a controlled environment last week where if they show symptoms they will be asked to have a covid test before attending again could mean that many cases have been missed while they weren't attending. That doesn't mean that they were catching covid in school but that more cases are being detected because they were attending school.

What are you on about?! School children are still being tested and the FB page is still being regularly updated with cases. The only good thing about folk not being in school going on 9 days now is that it lessen opportunities for the virus to be passed on. You also can't have it both ways. Schools closed - no effect on the decrease in numbers. Schools open - no effect on the increase in numbers. It's amazing the amount of posters on here who will jump through any number of hoops in order to avoid recognising how the almost 1 million people in schools plays itself in to the case numbers.

Wolf359f · 01-11-2020 12:05am

normanoffside wrote: »

Dr Nolan said we caught 1/3 cases in the first wave and are catching 100% of cases now.

This kind of data shows him for the fool he is.

He can only go on the facts at hand. Based on a very pointless antibody survey which had far too few participants.
But should he have just made up a figure or use the most reliable number he had?

FintanMcluskey · 01-11-2020 12:06am

Kh1993 wrote: »

The thread is bound to keep going around and around. Everyone has their position and that’s that.

On a side note, out and about tonight and it was such a weird experience. I generally have no time for Halloween, a nuisance to me. But tonight was sad, it was weird, it was quiet and it was heartening to see the humanity of people.

Barely any kids about. So many houses where I am have left bags for trick or treaters out. Barely even touched. Families afraid to pick a bag up. Then you’ve OAPs, bless them, putting bags outside, closing the door and waving kids up to get them. It warms your heart in one way and absolutely breaks it in another. It’s not to downplay things but psychologically there’s going to be so many from this so fckd up, old and young. Through no fault of their own or anyone else, we have people scared of other humans, of contact, of socialising. And that won’t automatically go away in level 2/3/whatever. A lot of damage has been done.

There‘ll be posters here that will be delighted that Halloween has been quiet and they’ve been spared the inconvenience of kids, and that’s fine, dogs won’t have been driven mad etc . But it’s a simplistic view if you take it in one night of isolation. A Christmas like this isn’t worth thinking about. People will be happy pubs/shops are closed but the main thing is human contact. Another major event/holiday without that and we’re in big trouble.

Society will take a long to to recover.

Children have had it indoctrinated that human contact will kill us

mloc123 · 01-11-2020 12:10am

[Deleted User] wrote: »

8 days

Which means the drop in cases we have seen all this week is from when schools were still open... We are still 6 days from seeing the midterm impact

Curious_Case · 01-11-2020 12:12am

JP100 wrote: »

. . . . . to go from saying that the schools being closed for going on 9 days now having no effect on the data to saying the schools re-opening up again also having no effect on the data is quite frankly ridiculous.

It would be somewhat illogical to think that while one of the two states (open or closed) has no effect, somehow the opposite state mysteriously does.

Surely a transition either makes a difference or it doesn't.

Xtrail14 · 01-11-2020 12:12am

Keep one foot on the carpet and ride away.

JP100 · 01-11-2020 12:12am

Deleted User wrote: »

8 days

Still misunderstanding that most people are symptomatic after 4/5 days, some even less. Well done, you!

Strumms · 01-11-2020 12:13am

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Society will take a long to to recover.

Children have had it indoctrinated that human contact will kill us

They’ve been educated that COVID ‘can’ kill you or make you ill.

They’ve been educated to change behaviors for now so that they don’t or so that their loved ones don’t get infected.

Not to impart that education to them would have been grossly irresponsible.

Once we have a vaccine life becomes normal.

JP100 · 01-11-2020 12:18am

Curious_Case wrote: »

It would be somewhat illogical to think that while one of the two states (open or closed) has no effect, somehow the opposite state mysteriously does.

Surely a transition either makes a difference or it doesn't.

It shouldn't really matter either way. As a number of posters on here have already told us the schools being shut has no effect on the data and when those same schools are open again, it has no effect on the data either. It's great stuff altogether. A bit like like Harry Potter and Hogwartz where the Dementors can't get in! Schools are seemingly similar whereby the Dementors in this case the Coronavirus magically can't get in either!

Curious_Case · 01-11-2020 12:24am

JP100 wrote: »

It shouldn't really matter either way. As a number of posters on here have already told us the schools being shut has no effect on the data and when those same schools are open again, it has no effect on the data either. It's great stuff altogether. A bit like like Harry Potter and Hogwartz where the Dementors can't get in! Schools are seemingly similar whereby the Dementors in this case the Coronavirus magically can't get in either!

Of course it matters, if a transition from closed to open has a bad effect then a transition from open to closed will have a good effect.

If either transition were to have no effect, then obviously the other one wouldn't either.

How could there be a noticeable effect in one "direction" but not the other?

mr_edge_to_you · 01-11-2020 12:30am

Well I'm now facing into my 4th month of unemployment. I spent the last 3 days putting up 4000 LED bulbs around the outside of the house. I went proper Clark Griswold this year up on the ladder right up to the roof

Tomorrow I'm turning them on. November is going to be a long tough month and anything that brightens that up should be done.

Jimson · 01-11-2020 12:32am

JP100 wrote: »

It shouldn't really matter either way. As a number of posters on here have already told us the schools being shut has no effect on the data and when those same schools are open again, it has no effect on the data either. It's great stuff altogether. A bit like like Harry Potter and Hogwartz where the Dementors can't get in! Schools are seemingly similar whereby the Dementors in this case the Coronavirus magically can't get in either!

Hahaha fully agree, there just asytomatic, pass it onto their parents who are probably also asytomatic.

But no 30 students in a classroom cannot get the virus, there just immune apparently.

The nursing homes are rampant because they show symptoms. I think people forget 85% of people show no symptoms

Non solum non ambulabit · 01-11-2020 12:34am

Is it so hard to understand that any effect from schools being closed won't be seen until the middle of next week at the earliest.

If schools are a problem then numbers will continue to drop dramatically next week as school closing impacts start to kick in.

Then 10 or so days from next Monday cases will begin to rise again due to negative impact of schools reopening.

That is the trajectory if schools are an issue.

The data so far suggests schools are not a problem due to falling cases with under open school conditions.

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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