Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - Read OP for Mod Warnings

patnor1011 · 21-10-2020 01:52PM

santana75 wrote: »

I dont know if this has already been asked but when the 6 weeks of lockdown are over, what level does the country default back to?

No level. They will be yielding bit by bit so it takes another 3 months or more to get to where we are now. By then cases will go up again and few people die so we will be told we need it again.
Rinse and repeat.

They are already preparing for failure. All that talk about how we all have to pitch in so it works means only that inevitable failure will be blamed on some "rules violators" as an excuse why it not worked.

Captain_Crash · 21-10-2020 01:53PM

SAMTALK wrote: »

And do you know for a fact that this is not happening behind closed doors

I don't, no one does... but given the fact they had a member resign because of their refusal to engage in alternative theories and modeling, it logical to assume NPHET meetings are a bigger echo chamber than this thread.

My personal belief is that if there were conscious discussions about alternative approaches, and scrutiny of their modeling numbers behind closed doors, they would make sure we know about it.

Idbatterim · 21-10-2020 01:54PM

SAMTALK wrote: »

According to you .

Just because you think it's a load of bull*** doesn't actually mean it's a load of bull***

So you suggest we all just ignore the restrictions and carry on ?

We all carried on since August and now cases have risen

Yes the government have got a lot wrong re beds, testing, contact tracing but
I'd imagine every country has got a lot wrong because this is all new

I visit a lot of forums here to educate myself etc, listen to different points of view. On this matter however, I dont think its a load of bull****, it goes without saying, that it is. Give this another year, you will be back here questioning, how could so many have gotten it so wrong. When its blatantly already the wrong way to go, where do you think we will be at in a year, or you have the rosary beads out like government and hoping for a vaccine next week? (that being the only plan)

21-10-2020 01:54PM

Penfailed wrote: »

I've asked this/said this numerous times on this thread...does everyone really think that people don't realise what is coming down the line financially? It's patently obvious, I'd have thought.

Quite a few have stated that they don’t think there will be a recession at all. Despite the fact we are already in one.

Another poster stated it would just be a few quid extra in taxes.

I don’t think a lot of people do realise what is coming.

Just this morning I was reading about Ulster bank. Will have to keep an eye and see what develops there.

Gael23 · 21-10-2020 01:55PM

patnor1011 wrote: »

No level. They will be yielding bit by bit so it takes another 3 months or more to get to where we are now. By then cases will go up again and few people die so we will be told we need it again.
Rinse and repeat.

They are already preparing for failure. All that talk about how we all have to pitch in so it works means only that inevitable failure will be blamed on some "rules violators" as an excuse why it not worked.

With Christmas it might not even be that long

21-10-2020 01:56PM

Idbatterim wrote: »

this is entirely the point! The right thing according to who? the right thing according to the government, which is blatantly a load of bull****?

In your non-expert opinion of course.

Idbatterim · 21-10-2020 01:58PM

Penfailed wrote: »

I've asked this/said this numerous times on this thread...does everyone really think that people don't realise what is coming down the line financially? It's patently obvious, I'd have thought.

if you asked all of this "we are in this together crowd" to take a five percent income decrease, be it on welfare, or pay public or private sector, see what solidarity there would be! LOL!

As you say, the billion being borrowed / decimated now, are all reductions in these idiots future living standards, that they cant grasp it , is beyond comprehension! Its absolute comedy, I am just standing by, waiting for reality to hit, and it will. Remember the last recession and the endless whining and attacks on the most vulnerable etc, while tens of billions were being borrowed, saddling a generation with ridiculous debt. The comedy this time is, the clappy seals want this, because their vision, ends at the end of their nose. Cant wait for reality to come knocking!

patnor1011 · 21-10-2020 01:59PM

Deleted User wrote: »

In terms of the plan, our finances will be absolutely crippled by late next year. So we need something before then.

Thankfully a vaccine will likely get the go ahead very soon. It won’t prevent Covid but it will likely change the narrative and stop the hysteria. That in itself will allow a return to normality.

Until then, we should be looking to increase hospital capacity and ICU capacity by any means. If we can borrow billions, lets spend it where it’s needed.

We should also be seriously advising the elderly to cocoon as much as possible. Give them 2 hours a day to shop on supermarkets were nobody else is allowed in. Encourage family and community to assist them with online shopping deliveries etc.

The rest of the country needs to get back to some level of normality soon.

I also predict that working from home is going to cause a mountain of issues. But I’ll leave that for another thread.

Not quite. You will have a hard time selling these placebo vaccines to people who are not in the vulnerable category. I do not foresee any big uptake since vaccines nearing the finish line are not offering any clear benefit.

On the contrary this vaccine issue will only give them another stick to bash people with. It will be said that not enough people took them so we need another lockdown.

If people will not say enough of this they can prepare to see lockdowns without pup payments and full pay.

Idbatterim · 21-10-2020 02:02PM

Jorge Limited Maze wrote: »

In your non-expert opinion of course.

absolutely in my non expert opinion, but I am capable of critical thinking! How are the and it must be millions of "expert" minds, collectively, globally, doing for us? No need to answer by the way, its a rhetorical question, I can see the global **** show ...

_Kaiser_ · 21-10-2020 02:04PM

MOH wrote: »

You can keep saying it, doesn't make it true.

Whole point of the lockdown was to flatten the curve, avoid overwhelming the health system, buy time to allow the government and health authorities to put systems in place to help deal with it.

The people did their bit. The others did not.

The head of the HSE promised 100k per week testing in place by mid-May. That first happened in October.

Then there was the NPHET chair who said in July that they hoped to avoid further nationwide lockdowns because the improved test and trace infrastructure they had put in place would allow them to quickly identify clusters, trace close contacts, and isolate those clusters with localised restrictions. That never happened, we're back in the highest level of nationa lockdown, and we're now abandoning centralised tracing because the system can't cope.

NPHET accidentally admitted that they we're looking backwards to determine what was causing clusters, described it as an "academic exercise", and said they didn't have the resources to do so. This is despite the fact we were standing down contact tracing centres as the lockdown reopened because there wasn't enough to do, at a time when we could have gained valuable information about exactly how reopening was affecting virus spread.
We have zero reliable large-scale data about how clusters are being caused.
The hospitality industry has been destroyed despite being the source of 0.5% of clusters. Travel is 5 times that, schools 7 times.
Then again, those figures are too small to gain meaningful insight from since 70% of clusters have magically arisen at home.

They spent months developing a "Living with Covid" plan which was supposed to identify various set levels of restrictions, with clearly defined criteria for entering and leaving each level, so that everyone could now exactly what each level meant and what was required for them. Aside from the launch being a disaster after the minister for health went to work with symptoms, they haven't stopped editing the "plan" since so it's now totally useless and just a stream of consciousness of what's currently going through their heads.

The contact tracing app hasn't been mentioned in months. The app is still claiming 1.3 million regular users, but only 3500 people have uploaded that they're confirmed cases, resulting in the notification of 6500 people. Those figures make no sense as a whole. The whole app can only be seen as a failure.

And I'm saying all this as someone who's followed all the restrictions all the way through, and actually believes a lockdown is necessary in the current situation. But in despair because it's purely reactionary and will do nothing in the long run.

We should never have reached this point, and we're just going to be back here again by Feb/March. It's hard to blame people at this point for giving up, when it's blindingly obvious the government, HSE, and NPHET have failed miserably in their roles and will continue to do so.

This is an outstanding post. Covers exactly the issues as they really are.

As I said myself a while ago - we live in a country that has stumbled through scandal after scandal, endless waste and incompetence, ass-covering, questionable decisions in everything from political actions to health, planning, tender awards etc etc

WHY would ANYONE think that the same people (because it IS mostly the same bunch) that have overseen all of the above, are somehow suddenly behaving more competently and coherently now?

The ONLY certainty here is that when this is all finally over, we can look forward to more expensive enquires and Tribunals about how this was all handled.. but as usual the only outcome will be another bill for the taxpayer

21-10-2020 02:06PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

head in the sand Nox, employers are already planning a cull. If your able to work from home your disposable.

Rubbish, people have been able to work from home for years. Many of those doing it now have already done it to some extent (myself included). Many even when in the office work with remote teams in other parts of the world so it has been clear for years that if wanted companies could have them work elsewhere but they dont as it doesnt work for most roles.

Also many working from home now do normally need to be in the office at times even if its only a day or two a week or a day or two month etc again this will mae it totally impractical to employ people in far away countries.

Its obviously all along you have a bit of an issue with WFH and for some bizarre reason appear to look down on people who WFH or who can WFH. Maybe its jealousy since WFH is such a brilliant thing for most.

RoryMac · 21-10-2020 02:06PM

The_Dazzler wrote: »

Income tax and USC (I imagine the public sector will be hit hard) are going to increase but hopefully with the steps we taking with the lockdown, it means that we can recover a bit faster than previous recession.

What steps are we taking?

We're kicking the can down the road and borrowing billions to close businesses. We're not increasing ICU or hospital capacity, contact tracing has collapsed with no signs of it being increased, not investing in remote learning for schools, nothing is being done that will actually help the situation when this lockdown ends.

bear1 · 21-10-2020 02:07PM

The fines they are preparing to hand out if you go further than 5km, are they 60e or 2.5k?

8k71ps · 21-10-2020 02:08PM

Idbatterim wrote: »

if you asked all of this "we are in this together crowd" to take a five percent income decrease, be it on welfare, or pay public or private sector, see what solidarity there would be! LOL!

As you say, the billion being borrowed / decimated now, are all reductions in these idiots future living standards, that they cant grasp it , is beyond comprehension! Its absolute comedy, I am just standing by, waiting for reality to hit, and it will. Remember the last recession and the endless whining and attacks on the most vulnerable etc, while tens of billions were being borrowed, saddling a generation with ridiculous debt. The comedy this time is, the clappy seals want this, because their vision, ends at the end of their nose. Cant wait for reality to come knocking!

Firstly this is absolutely by far the best time to be taking loans out (which we will have to do anyways) ,the ECB is at effectively negative rates and there is a massive impetus to invest and encourage stimulus. Secondly most of this stimulus is to allow protective measures in businesses etc from a disease that is extremely expensive in terms of healthcare costs and in consumer confidence. Abolishing the restrictions and allowing all work to resume, which is what I assume you want since the alternative is you want businesses to fail, would simply result in the exact same economic crisis except rather than putting said stimulus into healthcare and other protective measures to boost aggregate demand, you'd rather it be completely ineffectively used in propping up those same companies, which will again be offloaded to the taxpayer while the main thing that's actually causing the economic crisis only gets worse?

Idbatterim · 21-10-2020 02:08PM

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

This is an outstanding post. Covers exactly the issues as they really are.

As I said myself a while ago - we live in a country has that stumbled through scandal after scandal, endless waste and incompetence, ass-covering, questionable decisions in everything from political actions to health, planning, tender awards etc etc

WHY would ANYONE think that the same people (because it IS mostly the same bunch) that have overseen all of the above, are somehow suddenly behaving more competently and coherently now?

The ONLY certainty here is that when this is all finally over, we can look forward to more expensive enquires and Tribunals about how this was all handled.. but as usual the only outcome will be another bill for the taxpayer

great analysis of this post and let me ad to it! This is the kicker, that this SCANDAL, had the backing of a large part of the population! This will be the biggest waste of a tribunal ever, "every other country did it" "unprecented" "Nphet advice" etc, there you go! and of course, no ramifications for it! there you go, millions of euro saved!

drunkmonkey · 21-10-2020 02:12PM

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

The ONLY certainty here is that when this is all finally over, we can look forward to more expensive enquires and Tribunals about how this was all handled.. but as usual the only outcome will be another bill for the taxpayer

It's the nursing home one i'm especially looking forward to. Tony's fall from grace will be spectacular.

The problem we have is if the load comes on the hospitals they'll have to do it again and shove the old people back into homes, this time they'll have to commit the crime while we're watching.

UK: LEAKED DOCUMENTS SHOW PLANS TO AGAIN DISCHARGE COVID-19 PATIENTS INTO CARE HOMES
https://www.amnesty.ie/uk-leaked-documents-show-plans-to-again-discharge-covid-19-patients-into-care-homes/

This is what they want to avoid at all costs as it was criminal the first time and won't be tolerated again.

joseywhales · 21-10-2020 02:13PM

This has given me flashbacks to traumatic work experiences. All I have to say if that never in history has a public body managed to suppress such a contagious virus to this extent and even if they are failing, I expected it to happen anyway.

Idbatterim · 21-10-2020 02:14PM

8k71ps wrote: »

Firstly this is absolutely by far the best time to be taking loans out (which we will have to do anyways) ,the ECB is at effectively negative rates and there is a massive impetus to invest and encourage stimulus. Secondly most of this stimulus is to allow protective measures in businesses etc from a disease that is extremely expensive in terms of healthcare costs and in consumer confidence. Abolishing the restrictions and allowing all work to resume, which is what I assume you want since the alternative is you want businesses to fail, would simply result in the exact same economic crisis except rather than putting said stimulus into healthcare and other protective measures to boost aggregate demand, you'd rather it be completely ineffectively used in propping up those same companies, which will again be offloaded to the taxpayer while the main thing that's actually causing the economic crisis only gets worse?

there is no appetite for an austerity budget for several reasons, try keeping the public onside with that, support already massively dwindling. This is like saying, oh lets go to the interest free furniture place :rolleyes: this situation is unprecedented in modern history. But there is making a bad situation a LOT worse, do I doubt we would have to do some borrowing? no probably not. But maxing out the credit card, nearly instantaneously, is idiocy! Its also not free money, I understand how rolling over debt works. This is the best laugh in this all, remember the last time boys and girls? massive government debt, the markets turned on us, cost of borrowing went from very little to unsustainable! Why? because of the amount of debt! "free money" :rolleyes:

so todays "free money" is tomorrows credit card interest rate, that isnt sustainable... cut, cut , cut, austerity ensues, because you no longer have the option to borrow...

8k71ps · 21-10-2020 02:14PM

Idbatterim wrote: »

great analysis of this post and let me ad to it! This is the kicker, that this SCANDAL, had the backing of a large part of the population! This will be the biggest waste of a tribunal ever, "every other country did it" "unprecented" "Nphet advice" etc, there you go! and of course, no ramifications for it! there you go, millions of euro saved!

The worst thing about this is that for the people arguing schools and meat packing plants are safe was and is NPHET. Their incompetence is derived from the support of lobbyists that want to continue to open the country and press workers into unsafe conditions, why would the upper class possibly want to keep the country closed? Sure 1/3rd of the dail alone will be affected by collapsing rent prices, like Stephen Donnelly. For what possible reason would they want to bring the country into lockdown, beyond overwhelming public pressure to?

Idbatterim · 21-10-2020 02:16PM

bear1 wrote: »

The fines they are preparing to hand out if you go further than 5km, are they 60e or 2.5k?

if its goes by the usual standard of this country, free if long term unemployed , pensioner etc. If recently on Pup or employed, a months salary...

patnor1011 · 21-10-2020 02:16PM

8k71ps wrote: »

Firstly this is absolutely by far the best time to be taking loans out (which we will have to do anyways) ,the ECB is at effectively negative rates and there is a massive impetus to invest and encourage stimulus. Secondly most of this stimulus is to allow protective measures in businesses etc from a disease that is extremely expensive in terms of healthcare costs and in consumer confidence. Abolishing the restrictions and allowing all work to resume, which is what I assume you want since the alternative is you want businesses to fail, would simply result in the exact same economic crisis except rather than putting said stimulus into healthcare and other protective measures to boost aggregate demand, you'd rather it be completely ineffectively used in propping up those same companies, which will again be offloaded to the taxpayer while the main thing that's actually causing the economic crisis only gets worse?

Only one fail in your logic.
Money we borrow we must return.
We do not invest them and no stimulus is going on. We are pissing this money away.

jackal · 21-10-2020 02:17PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Thankfully a vaccine will likely get the go ahead very soon. It won’t prevent Covid but it will likely change the narrative and stop the hysteria. That in itself will allow a return to normality.

Just as likely as the above, which is purely speculation, is that a vaccine gets rushed through and is found to have unfortunate side effects (by being rushed through) - turning the vast majority off taking one and negating that as an exit strategy. The manufacturers, approval bodies, and oversight agencies really, really, really need to make sure this vaccine is safe. A vocal minority are sceptical of them in general already, a disaster with this one could make vaccinations ineffective due to widespread refusal to use them.

bear1 · 21-10-2020 02:17PM

Idbatterim wrote: »

if its goes by the usual standard of this country, free if long term unemployed , pensioner etc. If recently on Pup or employed, a months salary...

So basically, depends

Just flying in next week and driving to Galway so don't want to risk a fine because I dared enter the country.
Plus, are masks mandatory while in public places i.e. walking the street or only when in indoor public areas?

Idbatterim · 21-10-2020 02:22PM

patnor1011 wrote: »

Only one fail in your logic.
Money we borrow we must return.
We do not invest them and no stimulus is going on. We are pissing this money away.

lads let me give an example of the madness! Ok, we had a part time employee, doing an 1.5 hour a week, a side job to his main job. Covid hits, we cant offer him the 1.5 hour any more, the business revolves around classroom based face to face meeting. He can now get E350 a week, as he lost his job. Now look, I am delighted for him, one of those, up early, paying a fortune into the system, struggling with a family renting in dublin, fcuking delighted he can get it back out and if the likes of him dont get it, guaranteed it will be wasted on wasters, fund blackholes etc, the story of life in Ireland. But you lose E50 a week and can get E350? Then again, I am probably wrong to question FG and their prudent governance :rolleyes:

patnor1011 · 21-10-2020 02:24PM

bear1 wrote: »

So basically, depends
Just flying in next week and driving to Galway so don't want to risk a fine because I dared enter the country.
Plus, are masks mandatory while in public places i.e. walking the street or only when in indoor public areas?

They are not mandatory outside. But seeing them outside they are a great identifier of people who succumbed to fear and propaganda. And when you see someone sitting alone in a car with a mask on it is a dead giveaway - that is someone who lost all the hope. (and sane mind in the process)

Idbatterim · 21-10-2020 02:24PM

bear1 wrote: »

So basically, depends
Just flying in next week and driving to Galway so don't want to risk a fine because I dared enter the country.
Plus, are masks mandatory while in public places i.e. walking the street or only when in indoor public areas?

this isnt germany or spain, I reckon there will be near zero fines dished out. There is an app called Waze, that has pretty accurate near real time info of garda checkpoints etc...

checked it out the other day and it was bang on!

masks only indoor. if you have a valid excuse and there are several ones to go to galway, say the truth, if not, just have BS excuse on the tip of your tongue. If flexible with time of trip, you can be pretty sure, they wont be out in lashing rain!

Idbatterim · 21-10-2020 02:26PM

8k71ps wrote: »

The worst thing about this is that for the people arguing schools and meat packing plants are safe was and is NPHET. Their incompetence is derived from the support of lobbyists that want to continue to open the country and press workers into unsafe conditions, why would the upper class possibly want to keep the country closed? Sure 1/3rd of the dail alone will be affected by collapsing rent prices, like Stephen Donnelly. For what possible reason would they want to bring the country into lockdown, beyond overwhelming public pressure to?

youd wonder, education is very important and raises a lot of issues for working parents. youd wonder how many are employed by meat factories here and if they would be better off being shut down and import?

Captain_Crash · 21-10-2020 02:29PM

Idbatterim wrote: »

lads let me give an example of the madness! Ok, we had a part time employee, doing an 1.5 hour a week, a side job to his main job. Covid hits, we cant offer him the 1.5 hour any more, the business revolves around classroom based face to face meeting. He can now get E350 a week, as he lost his job. Now look, I am delighted for him, one of those, up early, paying a fortune into the system, struggling with a family renting in dublin, fcuking delighted he can get it back out and if the likes of him dont get it, guaranteed it will be wasted on wasters, fund blackholes etc, the story of life in Ireland. But you lose E50 a week and can get E350? Then again, I am probably wrong to question FG and their prudent governance :rolleyes:

There is a pub just down the road for me whose paying staff under the table so they can continue to collect the PUP payment. I'm sure its common place at this stage. Id be surprised if it wasn't.

KennisWhale · 21-10-2020 02:29PM

Don't Chute! wrote: »

Translation: “I’m not an anti-vaxxer, but.............”

That's your response?

storker · 21-10-2020 02:30PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Restrictions without evidence do not help, i'm ready to shoot people at this stage i've turned from pro lockdown to this is complete madness and there is 0 evidence as to the effectiveness of any restriction besides total lockdown, the levels didn't work, the masks didn't work, closing the pubs didn't work. Nothing is working, the restrictions are just wrecking the fecking heads off people.

Anyone in favour of masks has no idea what's happening on the ground, A dirt bag (50's male, well educated) just came into me with his mask the wrong way round and the inside white bit facing out that was disgustingly dirty, there is no way masks are having any effect on the transmission with that kind of carry on and it's rampant. I want them banned for general use, people are using them to be compliant and nothing more, they are not using them as intended. The medical profession are starting to kick back about them, use them wrong and it's a worse problem than not wearing them, fact!

WFH will turn into being unemployed from home, people are blind to what's happening, they will be replaced by cheaper workers from around the globe or their jobs just done away with it. There's a recession coming on that will make 2008 look like a walk in the park.

I've done 2 recessions, I don't want a third as we'll be back to the bullet or the boat.

This reads like a lot of over-excited sweeping generalisation. Amazingly enough I'm also on the ground, and yes I see plenty of people not wearing masks properly, but the vast majority are, and most people wearing masks properly still beats nobody wearing masks at all. One dirtbag is not the world. Not advocating their use would be silly, to say the least. Banning them would be raise that silliness to the umpteenth power. I seriously hope you find a suitable sense-of-perspective donor soon.

Your claim about WFH reads reads more like wishful thinking and has been adequately answered several times in a number of threads.

Thanks for the "educationn" about recessions. I've actually done four recessions; three here and one in the UK. I'm far from blind to their effects.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - Read OP for Mod Warnings