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Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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Comments

  • #8912
    Blondini
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,480 ✭✭✭Blondini


    Spanish Eyes wrote: »
    Schools are the hidden vector here I think. How can community transmission not happen via schools?

    Pubs and restaurants are closed, so it's not them.
    Shops are open but always were.
    Public Transport is working but always was.

    Can anyone think of any other route of transmission at present? I could be missing something. I understand that some blame gatherings at parties and other stuff, but by comparison to the number of pupils and teachers going in and out every day, the numbers for gatherings must be small enough, and was going on anyway all the way through.

    1/5 of the population suddenly crammed indoors with no SD, poor ventilation, secrecy, different rules for close contacts etc, coincides with huge numbers.

    What a huge coincidence.

    No bull**** amateur statistics about age profile of cases proves anything except a lot of students are asymptomatic so not tested, but still very much capable of spreading.


  • #8913
    Darwin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,773 ✭✭✭Darwin


    With reference to spread from children and transmission in schools, this is worth a read:

    https://twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/1312392762445066243


  • #8914
    SeaBreezes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,587 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    Necro wrote: »
    Rough enough tonight. Probably will call my GP in the morning. It seemed to have abated in the last day or so but the breathlessness has come back with a vengeance this evening.

    Look after yourself.
    Have you got an oximeter?


  • #8915
    Funsterdelux
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    Darwin wrote: »
    With reference to spread from children and transmission in schools, this is worth a read:

    https://twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/1312392762445066243

    Our antiviral bubbles and pods are very effective.


  • #8916
    niallo27
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,145 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Sorry Niall that doesn't make sense. It's the curve. It's either exponential or not.
    These two charts are equivalent.
    529068.png
    529070.png

    Here's the linear one. You can clearly see it's increasing exponentially. It has been since start of September. It's interesting because I was shocked with the positivity rate in Northern Ireland getting to 24% in some places. How did that happen? Well it's happening quickly here.

    529071.png

    I know we are probably wrecking everyone's head but since start of September it's been growing half a percent a week then 1.5% last week. So if its growing half a percent every week how is that exponential growth.


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  • #8917
    Ohmeha
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,347 ✭✭✭Ohmeha


    Dublin vs rest of the ROI core numbers since the introduction of Level 3 in the capital

    After consistent declining numbers in Dublin since Level 3 particularly between Sunday October 4th to Friday 9th the past 3 days may be indicating the beginning of a trending increase in capital, will know better come Thursday evening with another 3 days of numbers. Nothing can be read into the Rest of ROI numbers since their Level 3 introduction as of yet but that 7 day average percentage needs to be showing evidence of a decline by the end of the week and I think that's looking unlikely

    Day Month Date Dublin Weekly 7 Day 7 Day % 14 Day 14 Day % Non-Dub Weekly 7 Day 7 Day % 14 Day 14 Day %
    Saturday September 19th 166 1,019 145.57 54.39% 119.93 115.26% 108 822 117.43 53.07% 97.07 56.03%
    Sunday September 20th 241 1,104 157.71 47.59% 132.29 128.92% 155 878 125.43 55.12% 103.14 57.13%
    Monday September 21st 76 1,072 153.14 34.00% 133.71 136.36% 112 890 127.14 43.55% 107.86 69.47%
    Tuesday September 22nd 174 1,028 146.86 22.97% 133.14 94.78% 160 911 130.14 43.69% 110.36 64.19%
    Wednesday September 23rd 103 995 142.14 8.03% 136.86 109.40% 131 924 132.00 28.51% 117.36 81.95%
    Thursday September 24th 167 1,043 149.00 11.79% 141.14 100.00% 157 960 137.14 27.83% 122.21 83.39%
    Friday September 25th 152 1,079 154.14 16.27% 143.36 89.88% 174 997 142.43 24.94% 128.21 89.35%
    Saturday September 26th 104 1,017 145.29 -0.20% 145.43 89.75% 144 1,033 147.57 25.67% 132.50 95.47%
    Sunday September 27th 212 988 141.14 -10.51% 149.43 73.61% 218 1,096 156.57 24.83% 141.00 91.65%
    Monday September 28th 209 1,121 160.14 4.57% 156.64 70.26% 181 1,165 166.43 30.90% 146.79 86.48%
    Tuesday September 29th 154 1,101 157.29 7.10% 152.07 51.75% 209 1,214 173.43 33.26% 151.79 88.55%
    Wednesday September 30th 189 1,187 169.57 19.30% 155.86 46.84% 240 1,323 189.00 43.18% 160.50 85.86%
    Thursday October 1st 170 1,190 170.00 14.09% 159.50 43.69% 272 1,438 205.43 49.79% 171.29 86.47%
    Friday October 2nd 198 1,236 176.57 14.55% 165.36 40.64% 272 1,536 219.43 54.06% 180.93 87.77%
    Saturday October 3rd 224 1,356 193.71 33.33% 169.50 41.33% 389 1,781 254.43 72.41% 201.00 107.06%
    Sunday October 4th 100 1,244 177.71 25.91% 159.43 20.52% 264 1,827 261.00 66.70% 208.79 102.42%
    Monday October 5th 134 1,169 167.00 4.28% 163.57 22.33% 384 2,030 290.00 74.25% 228.21 111.59%
    Tuesday October 6th 111 1,126 160.86 2.27% 159.07 19.47% 321 2,142 306.00 76.44% 239.71 117.22%
    Wednesday October 7th 218 1,155 165.00 -2.70% 167.29 22.23% 393 2,295 327.86 73.47% 258.43 120.21%
    Thursday October 8th 91 1,076 153.71 -9.58% 161.86 14.68% 415 2,438 348.29 69.54% 276.86 126.53%
    Friday October 9th 123 1,001 143.00 -19.01% 159.79 11.46% 494 2,660 380.00 73.18% 299.71 133.76%
    Saturday October 10th 241 1,018 145.43 -24.93% 169.57 16.60% 771 3,042 434.57 70.80% 344.50 160.00%
    Sunday October 11th 226 1,144 163.43 -8.04% 170.57 14.15% 588 3,366 480.86 84.24% 370.93 163.07%
    Monday October 12th 254 1,264 180.57 8.13% 173.79 10.94% 571 3,553 507.57 75.02% 398.79 171.68%


  • #8918
    GooglePlus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,010 ✭✭✭GooglePlus


    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-825-new-cases-as-level-4-is-mooted-for-border-counties-1.4378453?mode=amp

    "Earlier, the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) special envoy on Covid-19, Dr David Nabarro said there was going to be “a lot of sickness and death in Ireland in the next two months” if people were not careful."


  • #8919
    marno21
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,060 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    Updated detailed case data per county from the ever reliable Gavan Reilly

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1315726425618604032


  • #8920
    flanna01
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 979 ✭✭✭flanna01


    Did I just read a poster outlining his plans for Christmas dinner this year....??

    Sweet suffering Jaysis... What a snowflake you are..

    Thankyou for kindly sharing your Christmas dinner plans with us... Sorry you can't make the in-laws this year (desperate isn't it!)

    Anyway, hopefully this Kung Flu will blow over...

    I hope the rest of the 5 million population are as transparent as yourself.. Love to hear their Xmas dinner plans... NOT!


  • #8921
    Non solum non ambulabit
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,089 ✭✭✭Non solum non ambulabit


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Another false positive it looks like for the FAI

    https://twitter.com/VMSportIE/status/1315722426496491521?s=19

    This is farcical and shows what happens with follow up testing.

    I assume we only test a person once if the result comes back positive. Loads of footballers are testing positive then negative a few days later.


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  • #8922
    Finty Lemon
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,736 ✭✭✭Finty Lemon


    flanna01 wrote: »
    Did I just read a poster outlining his plans for Christmas dinner this year....??

    Sweet suffering Jaysis... What a snowflake you are..

    Thankyou for kindly sharing your Christmas dinner plans with us... Sorry you can't make the in-laws this year (desperate isn't it!)

    Anyway, hopefully this Kung Flu will blow over...

    I hope the rest of the 5 million population are as transparent as yourself.. Love to hear their Xmas dinner plans... NOT!

    A mature secular country bemoaning the possibility of no Christmas.


  • #8923
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,059 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    marno21 wrote: »
    Updated detailed case data per county from the ever reliable Gavan Reilly

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1315726425618604032

    Waterford is not angry, just disappointed.


  • #8924
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    The_Brood wrote: »
    The government - Donnelly now - still saying the schools have nothing to do with the virus spread. How, how, how? Indoor space, kids breathing on top of each other, no distancing, spreading it all throughout their families....but no, that's not happening. Impossible. But someone dares to sit down with a coffee in a coffee shop and that causes 1000 cases, right? Schools open forever, everything else closed down and bankrupt - that's the way to do it!

    Please tell me how this makes any sense. Any sense. There are crazy conspiracy theory nutjobs on the streets, but plenty in elected government as well. This is absolute madness that the government is allowed to get away with this. What the government is saying contradicts everything that is known about the virus. Why are we listening to them?
    Boggles wrote: »
    The cabinet are frantically trying to get the midterm in the hope we will see a decrease in cases over that week.

    The Irish media are now starting to ask the questions, 'how come there is little to no transmission in Irish schools?'

    There has been a increase of almost 40% in confirmed Covid hospitalizations since Thursday.

    Midterm is 14 days away.
    thomas 123 wrote: »
    Hearing this from my brothers secondary school also, teacher positive, nobody tested.


    All the above type posts, I had been initially ignoring as have no kids in school. But it's really looking like they may be a factor right now and, ironically, it may be only because pubs/restaurants closed that it may be apparent. If they hadn't been closed, the pubs and restaurants would seriously be in the frame now for the extra cases. Now, there's a debate at least to be had.


  • #8925
    TTLF
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 762 ✭✭✭TTLF
    save the trouble and jazz it up


    Really wish they extended the midterm break a week to see what would happen :/


  • #8926
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,192 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    flanna01 wrote: »
    Did I just read a poster outlining his plans for Christmas dinner this year....??

    Sweet suffering Jaysis... What a snowflake you are..

    Thankyou for kindly sharing your Christmas dinner plans with us... Sorry you can't make the in-laws this year (desperate isn't it!)

    Anyway, hopefully this Kung Flu will blow over...

    I hope the rest of the 5 million population are as transparent as yourself.. Love to hear their Xmas dinner plans... NOT!

    There's an entire thread on Christmas during Covid.
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058118158


  • #8927
    BringBackMick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭BringBackMick


    Is it possible that a story bigger than COVID will take over the news reporting in the next few weeks?


  • #8928
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,422 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    BringBackMick wrote: »
    Is it possible that a story bigger than COVID will take over the news reporting in the next few weeks?

    The Budget tomorrow.


  • #8929
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    BringBackMick wrote: »
    Is it possible that a story bigger than COVID will take over the news reporting in the next few weeks?

    George Lee will be gutted if that happens.


  • #8930
    xhomelezz
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,414 ✭✭✭xhomelezz


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    The Budget tomorrow.

    The way things are at the moment, the budget will last till Friday :D
    https://subscriptions.boards.ie/

    Hit the switch to keep the lights on.



  • #8931
    owlbethere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    Deleted User wrote: »
    The Budget tomorrow.
    American presidential election after that.
    Followed by brexit and the **** storm that will bring.


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  • #8932
    Cluedo Monopoly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,762 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Deleted User wrote: »
    The Budget tomorrow.
    Hardly 2 days of news.

    Just like the July stimulus which last about an hour.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth house?



  • #8933
    Inquitus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,796 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »
    This is farcical and shows what happens with follow up testing.

    I assume we only test a person once if the result comes back positive. Loads of footballers are testing positive then negative a few days later.

    UEFA uses the RT-PCR test which is only 66-80% accurate, substantially less than the normal PCR test, this is the cause of the false positives which are then confirmed with a proper PCR test, hence the negatives a day or two later.


  • #8934
    eagle eye
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 42,961 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    I think we'll be level 5 very soon and it'll go to near Christmas.
    Christmas should be decent for families if this happens. You'll have everybody isolated in advance so people can safely visit each other over the Christmas.


  • #8935
    ForestFire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,346 ✭✭✭ForestFire


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    George Lee will be gutted if that happens.

    I don't think so...

    Here's George Lee himself, RTE's special correspondant for "whatever happens to important today" with the latest from Santas Elves, who are preparing toys under strick Covid rules....

    ..... George can Elves get Covid and do we think the raindeer vaccine will be ready in time.....


  • #8936
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    flanna01 wrote: »
    Did I just read a poster outlining his plans for Christmas dinner this year....??

    Sweet suffering Jaysis... What a snowflake you are..

    Thankyou for kindly sharing your Christmas dinner plans with us... Sorry you can't make the in-laws this year (desperate isn't it!)

    Anyway, hopefully this Kung Flu will blow over...

    I hope the rest of the 5 million population are as transparent as yourself.. Love to hear their Xmas dinner plans... NOT!

    I plan on having Turkey, Ham, Stuffing and veggies. Same as every year.

    But it is something nice to look forward to.


  • #8937
    Non solum non ambulabit
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,089 ✭✭✭Non solum non ambulabit


    Inquitus wrote: »
    UEFA uses the RT-PCR test which is only 66-80% accurate, substantially less than the normal PCR test, this is the cause of the false positives which are then confirmed with a proper PCR test, hence the negatives a day or two later.

    So many positives are they missing? Is there a chance positive players are getting negative tests and then playing??


  • #8938
    Inquitus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,796 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »
    So many positives are they missing? Is there a chance positive players are getting negative tests and then playing??

    That's true for all Covid-19 tests, none are 100% accurate, so you could always have positive players playing.


  • #8939
    arctictree
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,563 ✭✭✭arctictree


    marno21 wrote: »
    Updated detailed case data per county from the ever reliable Gavan Reilly

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1315726425618604032

    Have we stopped with the local lockdowns now? Or was that just a Ronan Glynn thing?


  • #8940
    ForestFire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,346 ✭✭✭ForestFire


    eagle eye wrote: »
    ........... so people can safely visit each other over the Christmas.

    So level 5 for weeks now, all for 1 week or mayhem and back to level 5 again? Is that the plan?

    Whatever happens and whatever level we are on, Christmas should be a quite time for close family only.... Even as far as 1 other household...


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  • #8941
    odyssey06
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,498 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »
    So many positives are they missing? Is there a chance positive players are getting negative tests and then playing??

    According to this false negative rate is 3.5 percent... false positive rate seems to be higher.
    https://www.healio.com/news/infectious-disease/20200610/falsenegative-sarscov2-rtpcr-tests-occur-less-often-than-previously-observed

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



This discussion has been closed.
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