Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

xhomelezz · 12-10-2020 07:44PM

Marty Bird wrote: »

How does one go about to identify how or where they contracted the virus to prove liability?

Impossible because our robust track and trace system is fcuked.

castletownman · 12-10-2020 07:45PM

Just on contact tracing, I was told by the person who confirmed my positive test that they were to ring me within the next 24 hours and I was to compile a list of my close contacts over the last week.

But they haven't rang, and I have since learned that they aren't either because they are confident that the local pub is the epicentre and are working off the list kept by them.

odyssey06 · 12-10-2020 07:45PM

BringBackMick wrote: »

That is the 2nd member of party who came back positive to be later confirmed as a false positive?
I guess with mass testing you gonna have some percentage false positives?
They testing around 50 staff a go....1 false positive is probably likely?

False positive rate should be at most 0.02 based on global test results from the test kits used by HSE ...
Maybe FAI using private testing.

12-10-2020 07:46PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Another false positive it looks like for the FAI

https://twitter.com/VMSportIE/status/1315722426496491521?s=19

Are they using a private company?

stephenjmcd · 12-10-2020 07:46PM

BringBackMick wrote: »

That is the 2nd member of party who came back positive to be later confirmed as a false positive?

I guess with mass testing you gonna have some percentage false positives?

They testing around 50 staff a go....1 false positive is probably likely?

Staff member tested positive last week with whatever test UEFA use, retested and negative, HSE declared it a false positive.

An actual proper positive over the weekend with a player.

Then this player tested positive in a swab taken last night, retested and returned negative later today. 3rd test to take place now.

Polar101 · 12-10-2020 07:46PM

Turtwig wrote: »

Could the HSE have given it more capacity? Yes. But how much specifically do you want? At what daily case number should the system collapse?

Does it need to collapse? Ideally you'd have the Covid app pick up the cases regular contact tracing can't find, and then enough resources to do the contact tracing. I know there's loads of cases now, but if the system is breaking already, then the capacity was shockingly low. Which also means it was never going to work, and then relying on it this much wasn't a great idea.

podgeandrodge · 12-10-2020 07:46PM

So am I correct in saying that:

1) Dublin not doing particularly well, despite pubs being shut down 3 weeks ago even though they were considered a big cause
2) Dublin not doing particularly well, and schools are open, because they are not considered a problem.

If the on-going considerable transmission in Dublin is not coming from pubs and restaurants, where is it coming from? And if it's coming from house parties and schools, why not open pubs/restaurants in controlled manner?

Spanish Eyes · 12-10-2020 07:47PM

Schools are the hidden vector here I think. How can community transmission not happen via schools?

Pubs and restaurants are closed, so it's not them.
Shops are open but always were.
Public Transport is working but always was.

Can anyone think of any other route of transmission at present? I could be missing something. I understand that some blame gatherings at parties and other stuff, but by comparison to the number of pupils and teachers going in and out every day, the numbers for gatherings must be small enough, and was going on anyway all the way through.

amadangomor · 12-10-2020 07:47PM

castletownman wrote: »

Just on contact tracing, I was told by the person who confirmed my positive test that they were to ring me within the next 24 hours and I was to compile a list of my close contacts over the last week.

But they haven't rang, and I have since learned that they aren't either because they are confident that the local pub is the epicentre and are working off the list kept by them.

What about the people you have met with since that though. Very lax from them if that's the reason they are not contacting you.

stephenjmcd · 12-10-2020 07:48PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Are they using a private company?

First test is administered by UEFA and sent to local labs so you'd assume private labs.

Sounds like the follow up tests identified the negative tests are HSE tests as they're involved and declared last weeks a false postive.

12-10-2020 07:48PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Staff member tested positive last week with whatever test UEFA use, retested and negative, HSE declared it a false positive.

An actual proper positive over the weekend with a player.

Then this player tested positive in a swab taken last night, retested and returned negative later today. 3rd test to take place now.

Maybe Shane Duffy headed the virus clear.

caveat emptor · 12-10-2020 07:48PM

niallo27 wrote: »

Well could you please label your graphs correctly in future. Why would you use it anyway, your counting up in 1 percent at a time. Your supposed to use it when you have skewness to large values.

Sorry Niall that doesn't make sense. It's the curve. It's either exponential or not.
These two charts are equivalent.

Here's the linear one. You can clearly see it's increasing exponentially. It has been since start of September. It's interesting because I was shocked with the positivity rate in Northern Ireland getting to 24% in some places. How did that happen? Well it's happening quickly here.

jobeenfitz · 12-10-2020 07:49PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Agreed, a strong man too. You need to have a very strong character for that job in these times.

Or we humans are biased, those of us who like what Tony's saying like him. Those of us (me also) who don't like what he is saying dont like him in this job.

I think he should advice government, that's his job. Stop his TV appearance's. Go back to his plush office. Maybe let him back out at Halloween?

is_that_so · 12-10-2020 07:50PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

So am I correct in saying that:

1) Dublin not doing particularly well, despite pubs being shut down 3 weeks ago even though they were considered a big cause
2) Dublin not doing particularly well, and schools are open, because they are not considered a problem.

If the on-going considerable transmission in Dublin is not coming from pubs and restaurants, where is it coming from? And if it's coming from house parties and schools, why not open pubs/restaurants in controlled manner?

Dublin has slowed but there are lots of clusters. We might see more clearly towards the end of the week where it is going.

ForestFire · 12-10-2020 07:50PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Another false positive it looks like for the FAI

https://twitter.com/VMSportIE/status/1315722426496491521?s=19

When Joe Soap gets a positive test results, but has no international match on the horizon, or doesn't work in HSE, does he get get any further testing done.... Do we ever known if his result was accurate?

Not only is this important to the tracking of numbers, overall infection rates, and contact traces, but also to poor Joe, who now thinks he's immune and and no longer worried about a desease that may actually be more harmful to him.

There is a very high false positive results coming from the Ireland camp, would you say?

Do we actually know the false positive rate? Is it different in different labs in Ireland and Germany?

Turtwig · 12-10-2020 07:52PM

Polar101 wrote: »

Does it need to collapse? Ideally you'd have the Covid app pick up the cases regular contact tracing can't find, and then enough resources to do the contact tracing. I know there's loads of cases now, but if the system is breaking already, then the capacity was shockingly low. Which also means it was never going to work, and then relying on it this much wasn't a great idea.

No it shouldn't need to collapse but you'd have to imagine there would be a point where they expect the system coping to become a problem and set a reasonable target to keep that as high as practical.

Tend to agree. Test and trace is your only way out of rolling lockdowns. Going by our experience we're a long way off changing this track.
Does anyone know what the anticipated limits were for it? In other words, has this collapsed below the intended expectations or exceeded them?

is_that_so · 12-10-2020 07:52PM

ForestFire wrote: »

When Joe Soap gets a positive test results, but has no international match on the horizon, or doesn't work in HSE, does he get get any further testing done.... Do we ever known if his result was accurate?

Not only is this important to the tracking of numbers, overall infection rates, and contact traces, but also to poor Joe, who now thinks he's immune and and no longer worried about a desease that may actually be more harmful to him.

There is a very high false positive results coming from the Ireland camp, would you say?

Do we actually know the false positive rate? Is it different in different labs in Ireland and Germany?

Ours is 1-3% in general testing. It can be higher in mass testing but then the test operator needs to make a call.

Necro · 12-10-2020 07:53PM

Turtwig wrote: »

I'm sure they would if they could. But it's not that simple. Even for the simple questionnaire stuff the volunteers need to be trained. To do this you have to take experienced folk away from their tasks to upskill the volunteers. Not all PUP recipients will have skills or mindset for making effective calls of a likely very repetitive nature.

Even if they are many cases of contacts tracing are incredibly complex that require specialist knowledge. Given that PUP is disproportionately the services and retail sectors it's unlikely you'll find the required skillsets and knowledge base there. Intensive training is required. For this you need significant resources. Resources which may be better used elsewhere during a pandemic.

This is no where near as straightforward as people are claiming it to be.

I'd disagree on the resources. I think Tracing is an integral part of trying to combat a disease such as this one.

It's absolutely nonsensical that I haven't received my follow up call yet after testing positive on Thursday.

Queried · 12-10-2020 07:56PM

Necro wrote: »

I'd disagree on the resources. I think Tracing is an integral part of trying to combat a disease such as this one.

It's absolutely nonsensical that I haven't received my follow up call yet after testing positive on Thursday.

How are you feeling Necro?

Sweet.Science · 12-10-2020 07:56PM

Marty Bird wrote: »

How does one go about to identify how or where they contracted the virus to prove liability?

A civil case is the balance of probability . Schools opened . Cases rose dramatically . You work in a school . You students are showing you snaochats of other students away in other countries and then going back to school the Monday . I think you'll have a good case

Necro · 12-10-2020 07:57PM

Queried wrote: »

How are you feeling Necro?

Rough enough tonight. Probably will call my GP in the morning. It seemed to have abated in the last day or so but the breathlessness has come back with a vengeance this evening.

CalamariFritti · 12-10-2020 07:58PM

odyssey06 wrote: »

False positive rate should be at most 0.02 based on global test results from the test kits used by HSE ...
Maybe FAI using private testing.

I'm not into PCR test conspiracies but I dont think it was quite that low.

is_that_so · 12-10-2020 07:59PM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

A civil case is the balance of probability . Schools opened . Cases rose dramatically . You work in a school . You students are showing you snaochats of other students away in other countries and then going back to school the Monday . I think you'll have a good case

Students live with other people as do teachers and they have lives outside the school. Data from schools suggest they are a small proportion of cases. That's a nuisance suit as well as marking the litigant out as a complete ass in their school.

c.p.w.g.w · 12-10-2020 07:59PM

BringBackMick wrote: »

That is the 2nd member of party who came back positive to be later confirmed as a false positive?

I guess with mass testing you gonna have some percentage false positives?

They testing around 50 staff a go....1 false positive is probably likely?

A nurse friend of mine tested negative 2 times, despite having all the symptoms and having been a close contact to 7 positive cases( it was a cluster in a hospital back in march)...she was off for 3 week's she still has some fatigue issues despite being fit & healthy

440Hertz · 12-10-2020 07:59PM

Necro wrote: »

Rough enough tonight. Probably will call my GP in the morning. It seemed to have abated in the last day or so but the breathlessness has come back with a vengeance this evening.

Best of luck & get well soon!

Shocking that you haven’t been contacted yet. I’m beginning to wonder is our tracing system up to it at all.

Also couldn’t a lot of the tracing be automated? The app could ask many of the basic questions and take details.

xhomelezz · 12-10-2020 07:59PM

Necro wrote: »

Rough enough tonight. Probably will call my GP in the morning. It seemed to have abated in the last day or so but the breathlessness has come back with a vengeance this evening.

Fingers crossed you'll pull through without serious problems. Fingers crossed for all infected.

Indestructable · 12-10-2020 08:01PM

Necro wrote: »

Rough enough tonight. Probably will call my GP in the morning. It seemed to have abated in the last day or so but the breathlessness has come back with a vengeance this evening.

Do you have a pulse oximeter in the house? Worth checking very frequently

Sweet.Science · 12-10-2020 08:01PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Students live with other people as do teachers and they have lives outside the school. Data from schools suggest they are a small proportion of cases.

Can you put up a link to the data . A small proportion of cases because they aren't testing them as close contacts

It's hilarious . The HSE website says a close contact is someone who is within 2 metres of you indoors for more than 15mins

For some reason it doesn't count in schools ðŸ€£

Necro · 12-10-2020 08:02PM

440Hertz wrote: »

Best of luck & get well soon!

Shocking that you haven’t been contacted yet. I’m beginning to wonder is our tracing system up to it at all.

Also couldn’t a lot of the tracing be automated? The app could ask many of the basic questions and take details.

I've done that part. They sent me the code for the app and I uploaded my own data to the HSE, just waiting on the tracing part to be done, most of my close contacts have already been tested though.

I think we just have to help them out here and do our own tracing, though I understand that in some cases it may not be possible.

I do not blame the staff let me be clear, they are clearly as underfunded as every single thing the HSE touches.

Queried · 12-10-2020 08:02PM

Necro wrote: »

Rough enough tonight. Probably will call my GP in the morning. It seemed to have abated in the last day or so but the breathlessness has come back with a vengeance this evening.

Sorry to hear that Necro, it must be a stressful time. Have everything crossed for a speedy recovery for you.

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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