Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

Wolf359f · 11-10-2020 11:47PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Almost matches 500 backlog figures

Well tomorrow we will see the detailed breakdown of the 1012 cases announced yesterday and if they were in fact all notified within a 24hr period (as emphasized in the press release), I'd expect to see the detailed county figures add up to 1012.

Miike · 11-10-2020 11:49PM

s1ippy wrote: »

They're not even doing a breakdown of cases any more. We've no idea where it's spreading because tracing are swamped. This is still only the first third of winter. Sorry, time is incredibly blurred this year. Winter isn't even started yet.

Its the 257th of March for me. Don't worry about it :pac::pac::pac:

virginmediapls · 11-10-2020 11:50PM

Dunno how people are really arguing against spreading in schools being a major issue here.

It's common sense. Kids in schools, they gonna cough on each other. It's gonna spread. Its one of the few forms of close contact groups we have left. Of course it's going to cause spread.

hmmm · 11-10-2020 11:50PM

plodder wrote: »

Well there's a clear contradiction there. What are we supposed to do if the statistics aren't reliable?

It might be that we are misinterpreting them - that's not to say they are unreliable. I've never really looked at the part of the press release where you're pulling your figures from.

Widdensushi · 11-10-2020 11:52PM

Just watching the earlier programme of the week in politics, wtf rbb wants us to pay for the North to go 0 covid, surely he should have to show a funding programme for that nonsense or do these parties in opposition have any responsibility to make reasonable proposals

gipi · 11-10-2020 11:52PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

The press announcement on Friday said there was 123 cases in Dublin.
The detailed breakdown that's provided 2 days later (released Sunday), lists Dublin as +331 cases. We announced 617 cases Friday but 2 days later when you look at the county figures, 1102 were added between all counties.

The detailed county figures are given a day after the headline numbers (and can include adjustments, denotifications). The breakdown in today's report should refer to the 1000+ cases announced yesterday - and are the numbers reported to HPSC up to midnight on Friday.

Wolf359f · 11-10-2020 11:53PM

virginmediapls wrote: »

Dunno how people are really arguing against spreading in schools being a major issue here.

It's common sense. Kids in schools, they gonna cough on each other. It's gonna spread. Its one of the few forms of close contact groups we have left. Of course it's going to cause spread.

It's not that we are arguing against it, it's that there's no evidence it's spreading to a high degree in schools.

hmmm · 11-10-2020 11:55PM

gipi wrote: »

The detailed county figures are given a day after the headline numbers (and can include adjustments, denotifications). The breakdown in today's report should refer to the 1000+ cases announced yesterday - and are the numbers reported to HPSC up to midnight on Friday.

If Dublin really had a spike to 331 that would be a big deal, but if even the Health Minister is saying the R is at 1 it sounds like it would be a false picture to say there was a big spike.

I presume then the 331 could include an adjustment for cases which happened quite a while ago, and it's just a statistical anomaly so to speak.

SeaBreezes · 11-10-2020 11:56PM

Whelo79 wrote: »

It's absolutely excellent, and eye opening. I planned on skipping through it catching snippets here and there but I ended up watching the full 30 minutes. By far the most thorough and best info I've seen to date.

Hes a complete charlatan constantly fact checked.

https://twitter.com/DrDomPimenta/status/1312234397022785537?s=20

Plumbthedepths · 11-10-2020 11:56PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

Just watching the earlier programme of the week in politics, wtf rbb wants us to pay for the North to go 0 covid, surely he should have to show a funding programme for that nonsense or do these parties in opposition have any responsibility to make reasonable proposals

"The problem with socialism is, you eventually run out of other people's money" Margaret Thatcher.

plodder · 11-10-2020 11:58PM

hmmm wrote: »

It might be that we are misinterpreting them - that's not to say they are unreliable. I've never really looked at the part of the press release where you're pulling your figures from.

I took the figures from wikipedia which is the only source afaik, that is recording daily cases historically in a way that can be used to look at trends.

If there is an element of doubt about the latest daily figures which takes a day or two to sort out, then that's fine imo, so long as wikipedia is recording the finalised figures.

Kh1993 · 11-10-2020 11:59PM

virginmediapls wrote: »

Dunno how people are really arguing against spreading in schools being a major issue here.

It's common sense. Kids in schools, they gonna cough on each other. It's gonna spread. Its one of the few forms of close contact groups we have left. Of course it's going to cause spread.

The argument isn’t against spread. It’ll happen, no chance it won’t. But all it does is show there’s wide spread in the community. If it’s not schools it’ll be elsewhere

But some are making this argument to close schools based on a hunch or a deduction. If schools are so so dangerous, it shouldn’t be too difficult for NPHET or government to show their data.

Wolf359f · 12-10-2020 12:01AM

gipi wrote: »

The detailed county figures are given a day after the headline numbers (and can include adjustments, denotifications). The breakdown in today's report should refer to the 1000+ cases announced yesterday - and are the numbers reported to HPSC up to midnight on Friday.

I understand the 2 day lag in the detailed county breakdown, it takes time to collate etc.. But when you announce 123 cases in Dublin on Friday out of a total of 617 cases and then 2 days later it appears it's actually +331 for Dublin and the 617 cases.... are now 1102.
The lag I can totally understand, but it's nice to get an accurate daily count of cases per country. Did we actually have 123 cases in Dublin/617 in the country on Friday or was it 331 in Dublin and 1102 in the country?

marno21 · 12-10-2020 12:01AM

Well spotted @Wolf359f

Here's Friday's corrected totals, with 1,107 cases added:

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1315336106112475136/photo/1

drunkmonkey · 12-10-2020 12:05AM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Hes a complete charlatan constantly fact checked.

Wolf359f · 12-10-2020 12:06AM

marno21 wrote: »

Well spotted @Wolf359f

Here's Friday's corrected totals, with 1,107 cases added:

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1315336106112475136/photo/1

It's looking like Level 3 for Dublin has not stabilized, it's actually increasing :mad:
Slowly, but completely non sustainable.

gipi · 12-10-2020 12:07AM

Wolf359f wrote: »

I understand the 2 day lag in the detailed county breakdown, it takes time to collate etc.. But when you announce 123 cases in Dublin on Friday out of a total of 617 cases and then 2 days later it appears it's actually +331 for Dublin and the 617 cases.... are now 1102.
The lag I can totally understand, but it's nice to get an accurate daily count of cases per country. Did we actually have 123 cases in Dublin/617 in the country on Friday or was it 331 in Dublin and 1102 in the country?

Saturday's press release has the breakdown of the 617 cases announced on Friday, including 123 in Dublin

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/edab1-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-saturday-10-october/

The 331 cases in Dublin are part of the 1012 announced on Saturday and can be found in Sunday's press release

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/18291-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-sunday-11-october/

Edit: saw the tweet above. The chart in the tweet seems to use the case report date rather than the date the cases are "press released" if that makes sense. The data in the chart for Fri 9 Oct corresponds with the total announced on Saturday and broken down in Sunday's press release

Wolf359f · 12-10-2020 12:08AM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Hes a complete charlatan constantly fact checked.

https://twitter.com/DrDomPimenta/status/1312234397022785537?s=20

Stats, the new fake news.
You can present correct stats but skewed to your agenda!
Deaths doubled in a day!!!!
..... yes they went from 1-2

Widdensushi · 12-10-2020 12:10AM

gipi wrote: »

Saturday's press release has the breakdown of the 617 cases announced on Friday, including 123 in Dublin

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/edab1-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-saturday-10-october/

The 331 cases in Dublin are part of the 1012 announced on Saturday and can be found in Sunday's press release

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/18291-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-sunday-11-october/

Did they add 100 odd to Dublin

virginmediapls · 12-10-2020 12:14AM

Wolf359f wrote: »

It's not that we are arguing against it, it's that there's no evidence it's spreading to a high degree in schools.

It doesn't really need evidence IMO, it's common sense/science.

If you cough on another person, you're likely to spread the disease.
If you put people in close proximity, you're likely to spread the disease. This is especially true for kids who will be lax on mask-wearing and social distancing.

So you have hundreds of thousands of people meeting up, daily - making school by far the largest and longest gathering of people in the country, and they are more likely to be relaxed with preventative measures.

So I agree it's fair enough to state that maybe there isn't clear and direct evidence that schools are causing spread now. There will be though. It's just common sense/science. Corona isn't gonna be like "aww sheet man, these are just some kids - better leave 'em off".

Further to this point, mention of things like house-parties as an even vaguely comparable vector for spreading of disease is really cringeworthy. The amount of exposure is obviously massively larger when you have hundreds of thousands meeting, daily, in school, compared to a few hundred house parties a week.

(To be clear I don't approve of houseparties at all - just saying its clearly not in the haypenny place when put next to the scale/regularity/risk that schools introduce).

I understand this is a pain in the hole for people to hear because it creates a huge issue for their family/babysitting etc but we have to be kind of practical here.

If there was a comic-con that went ahead right now, for example, with hundreds of thousands of attendees, it'd be rightly lambasted. Obviously school is a different kind of proposal - but trying to downplay the obvious risks, as some people here are doing (not you), seems very short-sighted to me, and annoyingly stops the discussion of alternative potential solutions to the issue.

FWIW I am willing to be proven wrong here and hope that I am. This - https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1011/1170773-coronavirus-ireland/ - statement from Stephen Donnelly that schools definitively aren't contributing to cases though...it doesn't really make sense to me after applying some critical thought to it. As someone with a science background, admittedly not in epidemeology but nevertheless - it doesn't sit well with me.

marno21 · 12-10-2020 12:15AM

gipi wrote: »

Saturday's press release has the breakdown of the 617 cases announced on Friday, including 123 in Dublin

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/edab1-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-saturday-10-october/

The 331 cases in Dublin are part of the 1012 announced on Saturday and can be found in Sunday's press release

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/18291-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-sunday-11-october/

Edit: saw the tweet above. The chart in the tweet seems to use the case report date rather than the date the cases are "press released" if that makes sense. The data in the chart for Fri 9 Oct corresponds with the total announced on Saturday and broken down in Sunday's press release

Ah yes. That's correct actually.

Seems another 90 or so cases were added in after the announcement giving a total of 1,107 cases that should have been announced on Saturday evening.

Wolf359f · 12-10-2020 12:17AM

gipi wrote: »

Saturday's press release has the breakdown of the 617 cases announced on Friday, including 123 in Dublin

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/edab1-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-saturday-10-october/

The 331 cases in Dublin are part of the 1012 announced on Saturday and can be found in Sunday's press release

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/18291-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-sunday-11-october/

Edit: saw the tweet above. The chart in the tweet seems to use the case report date rather than the date the cases are "press released" if that makes sense. The data in the chart for Fri 9 Oct corresponds with the total announced on Saturday and broken down in Sunday's press release

You've saved me a massive headache, thank you!
Friday's cases up to midnight get announced Saturday and then Sunday the detailed figures from Saturday (which are based on Friday's up to midnight) are released.
It was doing my head in!

Wolf359f · 12-10-2020 12:24AM

virginmediapls wrote: »

It doesn't really need evidence IMO, it's common sense/science.

If you cough on another person, you're likely to spread the disease.
If you put people in close proximity, you're likely to spread the disease. This is especially true for kids who will be lax on mask-wearing and social distancing.

So you have hundreds of thousands of people meeting up, daily - making school by far the largest and longest gathering of people in the country, and they are more likely to be relaxed with preventative measures.

So I agree it's fair enough to state that maybe there isn't clear and direct evidence that schools are causing spread now. There will be though. It's just common sense/science. Corona isn't gonna be like "aww sheet man, these are just some kids - better leave 'em off".

Further to this point, mention of things like house-parties as an even vaguely comparable vector for spreading of disease is really cringeworthy. The amount of exposure is obviously massively larger when you have hundreds of thousands meeting, daily, in school, compared to a few hundred house parties a week.

(To be clear I don't approve of houseparties at all - just saying its clearly not in the haypenny place when put next to the scale/regularity/risk that schools introduce).

I understand this is a pain in the hole for people to hear because it creates a huge issue for their family/babysitting etc but we have to be kind of practical here.

If there was a comic-con that went ahead right now, for example, with hundreds of thousands of attendees, it'd be rightly lambasted. Obviously school is a different kind of proposal - but trying to downplay the obvious risks, as some people here are doing (not you), seems very short-sighted to me, and annoyingly stops the discussion of alternative potential solutions to the issue.

FWIW I am willing to be proven wrong here and hope that I am. This - https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1011/1170773-coronavirus-ireland/ - statement from Stephen Donnelly that schools definitively aren't contributing to cases though...it doesn't really make sense to me after applying some critical thought to it. As someone with a science background, admittedly not in epidemeology but nevertheless - it doesn't sit well with me.

Absence of evidence is not evidence.
I could get anal and say the cases in kids weeks before the schools reopened was 10.7% of all new cases. The weeks after they opened that dropped to 9.78%.
This could be down to kids no longer meeting 9-3 in uncontrolled environments (houses or outdoors without social distancing etc...) It could be down to teachers drilling them on social distancing and cough/sneeze etiquette/mask wearing, it could be down to 30hrs a week in a safer environment/controlled environment than being at home.
Or I could just say the difference between 10.7% and 9.78% is within a margin of error.

Widdensushi · 12-10-2020 12:26AM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

"The problem with socialism is, you eventually run out of other people's money" Margaret Thatcher.

I am still shocked, how can you have any credibility if you recommend Ireland spends imo opinion 20 billion + on the UK, not a mind what it will cost Ireland, surely he has detailed costings and repayment + interest done before he went on national TV and proposed that,obviously he is not looking for younger or future generations of voters for his party.

The_Brood · 12-10-2020 12:29AM

The government - Donnelly now - still saying the schools have nothing to do with the virus spread. How, how, how? Indoor space, kids breathing on top of each other, no distancing, spreading it all throughout their families....but no, that's not happening. Impossible. But someone dares to sit down with a coffee in a coffee shop and that causes 1000 cases, right? Schools open forever, everything else closed down and bankrupt - that's the way to do it!

Please tell me how this makes any sense. Any sense. There are crazy conspiracy theory nutjobs on the streets, but plenty in elected government as well. This is absolute madness that the government is allowed to get away with this. What the government is saying contradicts everything that is known about the virus. Why are we listening to them?

CalamariFritti · 12-10-2020 12:31AM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Some quite interesting points he makes, however at 13:00 into it, he mentions as an example of 100 positive cases, 50-90 are false positives
We've all been on here long enough to know that just isn't the case.

Yes I agree. He makes some good points and he put some good data together and he presents it well.

Especially the first part appears solidly backed up. R had started to come down even before we locked down. We know that now and we could have known it back then if we had been in any mood to listen. But instead we extended our lockdown which was already the longest amongst our peers. And then we introduced masks for no good reason in places were no spread occurred and patted ourselves on the back for it and still do.

In the second half he makes some pretty strong assertations but the data and conclusions behind it aren't quite as strong as that to put it mildly. Several times during the video I was thinking 'thats a bit of a leap' or 'I would like to see a little more detail on that'.
The stuff on the false positives and that only 10% of positives are relevant I cant get behind. I could if he had said 90% are asymptomatic but thats not what he means. He actually thinks the test is no good at all and 90% of the results are rubbish. I cant say for sure that this is not true (but I dont believe it). I am however pretty certain that he cannot say this for sure either. At that point I felt oh here is a guy who is ready to present something as fact when he must know he cant know that for sure.

Its not bad for an amateur but has its problems and I wouldnt base my world view on it.

Plumbthedepths · 12-10-2020 12:33AM

Widdensushi wrote: »

I am still shocked, how can you have any credibility if you recommend Ireland spends imo opinion 20 billion + on the UK, not a mind what it will cost Ireland, surely he has detailed costings and repayment + interest done before he went on national TV and proposed that,obviously he is not looking for younger or future generations of voters for his party.

M Martin went to Europe and secured a great deal for Ireland. We only have to borrow 16 billion euro to pay into the European Covid Solidarity fund which of course we will not receive a cent from. What's the interest I wonder and what services will suffer as a consequence.

Wolf359f · 12-10-2020 12:35AM

The_Brood wrote: »

The government - Donnelly now - still saying the schools have nothing to do with the virus spread. How, how, how? Indoor space, kids breathing on top of each other, no distancing, spreading it all throughout their families....but no, that's not happening. Impossible. But someone dares to sit down with a coffee in a coffee shop and that causes 1000 cases, right? Schools open forever, everything else closed down and bankrupt - that's the way to do it!

Please tell me how this makes any sense. Any sense. There are crazy conspiracy theory nutjobs on the streets, but plenty in elected government as well. This is absolute madness that the government is allowed to get away with this. What the government is saying contradicts everything that is known about the virus. Why are we listening to them?

In the weeks before schools opened 10.7% of all cases where in the ages of 0-14, In the weeks after they opened it was 9.78%. If schools are causing cases, they should be having a higher % of cases then the rest of the community.

Wolf359f · 12-10-2020 12:36AM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Yes I agree. He makes some good points and he put some good data together and he presents it well.

Especially the first part appears solidly backed up. R had started to come down even before we locked down. We know that now and we could have known it back then if we had been in any mood to listen. But instead we extended our lockdown which was already the longest amongst our peers. And then we introduced masks for no good reason in places were no spread occurred and patted ourselves on the back for it and still do.

But in the second half he makes some pretty strong assertations but the data and comparisons behind it aren't quite as strong as that to put it mildly. Several times during the video I was thinking 'thats a bit of a leap' or 'I would like to see a little more detail on that.

Its not bad for an amateur but I wouldnt base my world view on it.

Poster previousally posted a good video fact checking him, it's a good watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKGYKVNDS1Y&feature=youtu.be

The_Brood · 12-10-2020 12:42AM

Wolf359f wrote: »

In the weeks before schools opened 10.7% of all cases where in the ages of 0-14, In the weeks after they opened it was 9.78%. If schools are causing cases, they should be having a higher % of cases then the rest of the community.

That is not how the virus works. It does not stay in one age group. The only difference with children is they apparently display fewer/not as heavy symptoms. You could have a massive amount of kids who never even knew they had the virus, infecting parents who then spread it to other adults, and then they get caught out with the virus.

The alternative is to consider that children have some kind of natural immunity not just to the effects, but to contracting the virus in the first place - something which every single medical study to date has rubbished.

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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