2020 US Election

Cirrus Incus · 06-10-2020 9:12pm

Sienna Deep Rite wrote: »

All Don needs to do if focus the high energy of his Tw posting, into deep breathing, particualy at the 'Day 10' point of the CCP Virus.
Not out of the woods yet, but is kicking fallen branches out of the way while heading towards a clearning.

I don't know where you're getting the impression that Trump is on course to win the election. Biden is further ahead now in the polls than before the first debate. I'm not saying a Trump win is impossible, but at this moment it looks unlikely.

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

[Deleted User] · 06-10-2020 9:19pm

Sienna Deep Rite wrote: »

Waiting for live markets, to avail of x10 again, or for Joe to start bleeding out of the eyes again on live CNN TV, Joe had a couple of brain aneurysm in the past and will be an elderly 78 by November, a dangerous aul age, so you're deep in the elder Joe?

Another market of interest is KH @120+, she's on her tippy toes waiting to take over from the stand in, could easily push him down some stairs or something, very power hungry and focused.

How much are you in for on Trump?

Bobeagleburger · 06-10-2020 10:25pm

Trump drifting all day. Now 3 on betfair.

4068ac1elhodqr · 06-10-2020 11:13pm

Deleted User wrote: »

How much are you in for on Trump?

Little so far, as already stated live market (as per his previous win, collected at @9.0), is where the high liquidity action will be at for consideration.

Does feature on some strategic very long term accumulators, with accas there is very little risk, but high odds.
On a typical 4/6 folder, you only four to come in for good profits.

The real joy is when DT upsets everyone again, and they start bawling their eyes out on TV, and pollsters/media seek excuses.

Odds are still holding shortish at 2.5 - 2.75avg, across all bookies, not bad for a China Flu victim.
3.4 was his average holding price Oct/November of 2016, against Hill.

Outside of DT, KH 160.0 is very reasonable, but still worth waiting for 320+.

How much are folks on for Joe?
There was some crying last time when HC was a 'sure thing' at 1.2.

[Deleted User] · 07-10-2020 11:02am

Yeah thought that might be the case.

Muahahaha · 07-10-2020 5:24pm

Following on from the NBC/Wall St Journal poll that showed Biden 53% and Trump 39% now CNN have a poll just out last night showing Biden 57% and Trump 41%

CNN)Joe Biden's advantage over President Donald Trump has expanded and the former vice president now holds his widest lead of the cycle with less than a month remaining before Election Day, according to a new nationwide CNN Poll conducted by SSRS.
Among likely voters, 57% say they back Biden and 41% Trump in the poll that was conducted entirely after the first debate and mostly after the President's coronavirus infection was made public.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/06/politics/cnn-poll-biden-trump-2020-election/index.html

Thats two shockers of polls in a row showing that we could be getting into landslide territory here. Trumps debate performance where he interrupted Biden 74 times did not go down well with the American public and its now looking like many voters have lurched to Biden because of it. Trump currently at 7/4 on PP which is awful value given he needs to win Biden voters over but he doesnt seem capable of it.

Muahahaha · 07-10-2020 9:01pm

It gets even worse for Trump now as Rasmussen who normally skew towards Republicans have also come out with a shocker of a poll showing Trump is now well behind, they say 52 to 40 in favour of Biden. Thats three polls in a row all showing a collapse in support for Trump since the debate and him getting the virus.

Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump by 12 points in a new national survey from Rasmussen, the conservative outlet that has historically found the race to be closer than other pollsters.

Among likely voters, Biden takes 52 percent support in the latest Rasmussen survey, compared to 40 percent for Trump.

Trump's collapse in the Rasmussen poll is significant because the president has often pointed to the survey as an example of how he was performing stronger than other polls give him credit for. Biden is bolstered in the latest survey by an 18-point advantage among independent voters.

The past three Rasmussen polls have found Biden stretch his lead from 1 point to 8 points to 12 points over the course of a period that included the first presidential debate, Trump’s nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, and the president falling ill with the coronavirus.

In that time, Trump’s job approval rating has fallen from 53 percent to 44 percent.

Theres a lot of uncertainty about the health of Trump now so Americans are gravitating towards the fitter, healthier candidate.Plus Trump seems to be losing the plot , he has been hammering away on Twitter all day today, its all very unhinged. Hard to believe the best odds out there are only 2/1, theres no value in that whatsoever given how much trouble he is in. And because its Trump its highly likely he will just keep digging deeper.

4068ac1elhodqr · 07-10-2020 9:30pm

It gets better for the Donald, via his Dr.

The president this morning says, ‘I feel great!’ His physical exam and vital signs, including oxygen saturation and respiratory rate, all remained stable and in normal range. He’s now been fever free for more than four days, symptom free for over 24 hours, and has not needed, nor received, any supplemental oxygen since initial hospitalisation

Also continues to shorten on the odds with traditional bookies, 2.6 avg, a 2.5, only the skypeople have a wider 2.88, also accessible for accas.

If not mistaken, VP debate takes place in 5hrs or so, but can't see anything exciting happening nor any drama, unless KH overplays the minority cards.

[Deleted User] · 07-10-2020 10:27pm

Sienna Deep Rite wrote: »

It gets better for the Donald, via his Dr.

Also continues to shorten on the odds with traditional bookies, 2.6 avg, a 2.5, only the skypeople have a wider 2.88, also accessible for accas.

If not mistaken, VP debate takes place in 5hrs or so, but can't see anything exciting happening nor any drama, unless KH overplays the minority cards.

The thing is, he still hasn't spoken live on camera in a week. Then on the economic front he's burning himself. Plus his son is worried about his mental health. Looking more and more like a considerable defeat.

4068ac1elhodqr · 08-10-2020 2:27am

DT/Reps holding blue short markets midway in the VP debate, very cool stuff from Pence.

Brussels Sprout · 08-10-2020 12:38pm

Consensus on the VP debate appears to be that it didn't do much, either way, to change the trajectory of the race.

Biden down to 1.53 now but looks like he went as low as 1.48 in the past 24 hours judging by the matched price history.

538's model has moved him to an 84% chance of being elected.

4068ac1elhodqr · 08-10-2020 12:56pm

Odds shortening (blue colour code) this morning on DT, shows the Reps (cool cat Biden) clearly did a better and solid job on last night's debate.

What was witness last night, perhaps for the 1st time by many was a devious, very nervious and fidgeting KH who was lacking any real confidence.
KH now way out to 245 on BFE, if she has a chance (Biden gets the WuFlu) it could represent potential value.

greenfield21 · 08-10-2020 1:04pm

Looking at new voter registrations I can't see biden winning florida or NC. PA the same. I still think republicans have theenergy to get out and vote so high turnout.. It's going to be very close that's for sure with the epicenter been Michigan, Minnesota Wisconsin, PA.

I'm still on for trump to win just about. Will have to see if he gets stimulus through. They obviously seen an advantage somewhere in stopping negotiating.

Muahahaha · 08-10-2020 1:49pm

greenfield21 wrote: »

Looking at new voter registrations I can't see biden winning florida or NC. PA the same.

I wouldnt be so sure about Florida, Trump only won there by 100k votes in 2016 and his response to the virus has not gone down well with the elderly population living there. Latest polls in Florida are also showing a further widening of Bidens lead in the state to 11 percentage points, again Biden is moving into landslide territory.

Democratic nominee Joe Biden has opened up an 11-point lead over President Trump in Florida, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday.

The poll shows Biden garnering 51 percent of the vote in the Sunshine State compared to Trump’s 40 percent. That’s a remarkably wide margin for a state where elections are typically decided by only a few points. Other recent surveys out of Florida show a much tighter race.
A Quinnipiac poll of the state released early last month showed Biden with only a 3-point advantage over Trump.
Quinnipiac polling released Wednesday also showed Biden leading Trump 54-41 percent in Pennsylvania and 50-45 percent in Iowa.
"In varying degrees, three critical states in three very different parts of the country come to the same ominous conclusion. The president's hopes for reelection are growing dimmer by the day," said Tim Malloy, a polling analyst at Quinnipiac University.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/520032-biden-holds-11-point-lead-over-trump-in-florida-in-new-quinnipiac-poll

If Trump loses Florida like this poll is saying then the entire race is over, Biden is guaranteed to be the next President.

To make matters even worse Trump is now saying he is going to chicken out of the second debate. At a time when he needs badly to convince Biden voters to switch over to him he is running away from the opportunity to do so. Americans want to see their candidates debate so if Trump is chickens out then he is going to lose even more votes, it could be a bloodbath.

Bobeagleburger · 08-10-2020 1:57pm

Trump currently at 2.94.

Miles behind in the polls. He's a beaten docket.

4068ac1elhodqr · 08-10-2020 2:09pm

Trump as low as 2.5 (B'Victor), no real change from the time before he beat the China Virus.

Was holding a larger 3.4 avg price, before beating Hilary 4yrs ago.
Anything +/- 1.0 (even 2) is clearly a very open market.

[Deleted User] · 08-10-2020 2:16pm

Virtual debate has been proposed by commission in the interest of public safety. Trump has rejected the proposal so effectively cancelling the debate. Optically it just seems like his way of getting out of it.

greenfield21 · 08-10-2020 2:19pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

I wouldnt be so sure about Florida, Trump only won there by 100k votes in 2016 and his response to the virus has not gone down well with the elderly population living there.

Yeah but the republicans have registered so many new voters in Florida- halved the Dem advantage to about 150k. This along with a high Repub turnout...looks to me like an an uphill battle for Biden.

Bobeagleburger · 08-10-2020 2:21pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Virtual debate has been proposed by commission in the interest of public safety. Trump has rejected the proposal so effectively cancelling the debate. Optically it just seems like his way of getting out of it.

Running scared. Will damage him even more.

Muahahaha · 08-10-2020 2:50pm

greenfield21 wrote: »

Yeah but the republicans have registered so many new voters in Florida- halved the Dem advantage to about 150k. This along with a high Repub turnout...looks to me like an an uphill battle for Biden.

The Dems are registering thousands of new voters in Florida too, Michael Bloomberg is paying off the fines of thousands of convicted felons so they can vote. Time will tell with Florida but Trump having to divert resources to a state that should be safe for him means he is going to lose out elsewhere. The Trump campaign is fighting fires all over the place at this stage and in the White House some election campaign staffers are refusing to go to work for fear of catching the virus from him. Over 20 staff in the White House have now tested positive and are quarantining at home, his re-election team and hopes of winning are in a mess.

Bobeagleburger · 08-10-2020 3:00pm

Florida

4/5 Biden
23/20 Trump

So close in that state

Brussels Sprout · 08-10-2020 5:30pm

greenfield21 wrote: »

Yeah but the republicans have registered so many new voters in Florida- halved the Dem advantage to about 150k. This along with a high Repub turnout...looks to me like an an uphill battle for Biden.

The difference between Trump & Biden with respect to Florida is that Trump has to win it. Biden has many other paths to victory.

greenfield21 · 09-10-2020 9:19pm

Looks like the stimulus package will get through along with trump back on the campaign trail.

ebbsy · 09-10-2020 9:28pm

A quick question for ye.

The polls were completely wrong in 2016.

Why should I believe them now.

Atlantis50 · 10-10-2020 12:08am

So I placed a relatively substantial bet (per attached screenshot) on Biden to win (& to do so with 52-54.99% of the vote, the Harris bet was a hedge in unlikely event that Biden dies/became incapacitated before the election) at the start of September after it was clear that the convention and rioting was not to Trump's benefit politically and the bookies odds seemed far too bearish on Biden and Bullish on Trump.

I think the most likely outcome will be like 2008 in terms of popular vote (Trump on 45 or 46, Biden on 53 or 54) with Biden comprehensively winning the electoral college.

Why?

1) Trump only very narrowly won in 2016 with 46% of the vote, losing the popular vote by 3 million and only getting to the magic number of 270+ by winning 70k votes in three swing states. He needed to expand beyond his base but has not done so, and has consistently hovered at around 40-45% support and approval - not enough to win in the absence of a strong third party candidate (there is none) and a Democratic opponent as unpopular as him (Biden is not as unpopular as Hillary was)
2) Biden polling much stronger nationally and in swing states than Hillary was at the same time in 2016.

I only rarely place bets, the last one on politics being €60@16/1 on Peter Casey to finish 2nd in the 2018 Irish presidential election which turned out nicely.

Could of course still lose this bet but I'm growing more confident by the day, the concern now being Biden getting over 55% :eek:

Brussels Sprout · 10-10-2020 12:00pm

ebbsy wrote: »

A quick question for ye.

The polls were completely wrong in 2016.

Why should I believe them now.

Good question. Lets look at your post in 2 parts:

ebbsy wrote: »

The polls were completely wrong in 2016.

Ok first off, the miss in 2016. Nationally the polls did quite well then. The Real Clear Politics overall average was Clinton + 4.5% going in to election day. When all the votes were counted she was only up by 2.1%. So they missed by 2.4% which is respectable enough.

The big problem was in the state-level polls, particularly in the rust-belt "blue wall" states that were crucial in swinging the election to Trump. They all underestimated Trump's performance

Wisconsin - polls off by 7.2%
Iowa - polls off by 6.5%
Minnesota - polls off by 4.7%
Ohio - polls off by 4.6%
Michigan - polls off by 3.7%
Pennsylvania - polls off by 2.6%

They say that election polling is as much art as science. When you take a poll ideally you would get a randomised sample that truly reflects the population that you are trying to study. In the real world, this is practically impossible to do. Some groups in society are easier to poll than others. Pollsters often find it easier to access seniors, who are more likely to answer their phones for example but have a difficult time polling young, male minorities. This means that you end up having skewed samples. In order to correct for this pollsters introduce a technique called weighting. Effectively what this is, is they dilute the results of groups who are over-represented in their samples and amplify groups who are under-represented.

It seems that in 2016 in the states mentioned above they under-represented groups who turned out in force for Trump, specifically, white voters without a college degree. In fact I don't believe they even weighted for education levels in 2016.

Another issue was that because the two candidates were disliked by a large number of voters polls were showing larger than normal undecided. In the end this group broke for Trump but that wasn't something that the pollsters had factored in.

ebbsy wrote: »

Why should I believe them now.

Pollsters are always learning from their past mistakes and correcting their methods for future polls. They're unlikely to make the same mistakes as 2016.

2 things that are different specifically:

Voter's education levels are now taken as best practice and used to weight polls
There are far less undecideds this year - which means far less unknown quantities that could end up breaking for one candidate or the other

It is important to finish by saying that it is entirely possible that they could end up making some new mistakes.
I think the cognitive error that people make though is that people think "Trump under-performed in the polls in 2016 therefore that's likely to be the case again". In reality though that's not the case since the pollsters will have learned from the errors they made 4 years ago. More realistically any errors this year could be in either direction. it's as likely that they are under-representing a Trump win as they are a Biden blow-out victory.

ebbsy · 10-10-2020 4:49pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Good question. Lets look at your post in 2 parts:

Ok first off, the miss in 2016. Nationally the polls did quite well then. The Real Clear Politics overall average was Clinton + 4.5% going in to election day. When all the votes were counted she was only up by 2.1%. So they missed by 2.4% which is respectable enough.

The big problem was in the state-level polls, particularly in the rust-belt "blue wall" states that were crucial in swinging the election to Trump. They all underestimated Trump's performance
Wisconsin - polls off by 7.2%

Iowa - polls off by 6.5%

Minnesota - polls off by 4.7%

Ohio - polls off by 4.6%

Michigan - polls off by 3.7%

Pennsylvania - polls off by 2.6%

They say that election polling is as much art as science. When you take a poll ideally you would get a randomised sample that truly reflects the population that you are trying to study. In the real world, this is practically impossible to do. Some groups in society are easier to poll than others. Pollsters often find it easier to access seniors, who are more likely to answer their phones for example but have a difficult time polling young, male minorities. This means that you end up having skewed samples. In order to correct for this pollsters introduce a technique called weighting. Effectively what this is, is they dilute the results of groups who are over-represented in their samples and amplify groups who are under-represented.

It seems that in 2016 in the states mentioned above they under-represented groups who turned out in force for Trump, specifically, white voters without a college degree. In fact I don't believe they even weighted for education levels in 2016.

Another issue was that because the two candidates were disliked by a large number of voters polls were showing larger than normal undecided. In the end this group broke for Trump but that wasn't something that the pollsters had factored in.

Pollsters are always learning from their past mistakes and correcting their methods for future polls. They're unlikely to make the same mistakes as 2016.

2 things that are different specifically:
Voter's education levels are now taken as best practice and used to weight polls

There are far less undecideds this year - which means far less unknown quantities that could end up breaking for one candidate or the other

It is important to finish by saying that it is entirely possible that they could end up making some new mistakes.
I think the cognitive error that people make though is that people think "Trump under-performed in the polls in 2016 therefore that's likely to be the case again". In reality though that's not the case since the pollsters will have learned from the errors they made 4 years ago. More realistically any errors this year could be in either direction. it's as likely that they are under-representing a Trump win as they are a Biden blow-out victory.

thanks for that.

alchemist33 · 10-10-2020 4:55pm

Any bookies that would do novelty bets on US politics? I've only placed three bets in my life, hence the question

Muahahaha · 10-10-2020 4:57pm

Atlantis50 wrote: »

Could of course still lose this bet but I'm growing more confident by the day, the concern now being Biden getting over 55% :eek:

I would be happy with your Biden bet, right now he is in a very strong position and as the days go down it gets harder and harder for Trump to win this. The 52-55% call is a tough one though, you have to remember this is not just Biden v Trump, you also have a Libetarian candidate and a Green candidate running too and they'll pick up maybe 1-3% of the vote.

ebbsy wrote: »

A quick question for ye.

The polls were completely wrong in 2016.

Why should I believe them now.

Brussels Sprout explained it very well and they idea that the polls were completely wrong in 2016 in largely a myth spread by Trump and his supporters.

In any case this gives a good visual of how different things are now compared to in 2016
This is Trump v Clinton 2016
EjuUtlYXgAIXJaa?format=jpg&name=small

Note how close the lines come on several occasions indicating that Trump was always still in it

And then this is Trump v Biden 2020

EjuU0maXsAA1fGs?format=jpg&name=small

Here you see that Biden has always had a lead over Trump and the lines never come close together or cross each other. And with just over three weeks to go Trump is skewing off and Biden is surging ahead.

Brussels Sprout · 11-10-2020 10:21am

Biden now available @ 1.5 on Betfair (Trump @ 3.0)

2020 US Election

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