Where are the deaths coming from?

28-09-2020 9:52am #1

The official figure we are using for the deaths is currently 1802. According to the HPSC report on 02/09, only 447 cases were admitted to ICU. It is very strange that the number admitted to ICU is only a small fraction of the deaths.

I don't believe the figures are available, but I do believe that a very good percentage of ICU cases recover? Obviously the number that died in ICU is a lot lower than 447. Does anybody have these stats?

So it seems like we have about 1500 - 1600 deaths or so that never went to ICU. So where are these cases coming from?

In the over 65 category, there are 164 that went to ICU and 1658 deaths.
Is it a case that most of these people were just too sick to go to ICU? For example, a lot of the deaths would have been already suffering from terminal cancer, late stages of COPD, heart disease, Diabetes etc.

We also test every single person that dies for Covid. The test itself is quite sensitive. Is it a case that already dead people are testing positive and thus included in the figures?

Of course I know that the government/CMO have admitted to overstating the deaths and including possible/probable in the figures.

Anybody any thoughts or input? Surely anybody with even a remote chance of survival goes to ICU when there is capacity available? And we've always had capacity.

28-09-2020 9:53am

Deleted User wrote: »

.......

So it seems like we have about 1500 - 1600 deaths or so that never went to ICU. So where are these cases coming from?........

Nursing homes

28-09-2020 10:08am

Augeo wrote: »

Nursing homes

Probably so. I imagine even a nursing home resident would go to hospital/ICU if they had a chance of survival though?

Diarmuid · 28-09-2020 10:41am

Deleted User wrote: »

Probably so. I imagine even a nursing home resident would go to hospital/ICU if they had a chance of survival though?

Putting someone with an underlying illness, in their 80s, onto a ventilator for the last two weeks of their lives might not be how many people would like to die. Especially when it seems not to help a whole lot

OMM 0000 · 28-09-2020 10:45am

Are they releasing details of the ages of those who die?

I saw them for a few countries and the average age of people who die of covid is higher than the average age of people who die of everything else. For example, following the same logic as other countries, if the average age of men dying in Ireland is 78, then I would expect to see the average age of men dying of covid to be 82 or so. In other words, people live longer than average if they die of covid....

I'm not into conspiracy theories but the fact it's so hard to find this information makes me feel there is some dishonesty going on with the data. If it turns out almost no one under 50 dies of this disease, then serious questions need to be asked as to why everyone was forced to stay at home when it should have only been the old and sick.

Elmer Blooker · 28-09-2020 10:58am

Augeo wrote: »

Nursing homes

Exactly, those with dementia suffer from constant respiratory/chest infections which develops into pneumonia and then death, in other words dying of a covid 'related' illness or 'with' covid.

CalamariFritti · 28-09-2020 11:19am

I think there is non-invasive vs invasive ventilation. Basically a mask vs a tube down into your lungs. The latter is a tough procedure that is pretty harsh even on a young and otherwise strong person. They found that its not really something you can do to someone old, frail and weak as they're unlikely to recover from that procedure alone.

Budawanny · 28-09-2020 11:23am

Deleted User wrote: »

Probably so. I imagine even a nursing home resident would go to hospital/ICU if they had a chance of survival though?

Alot of people will have requested a DNR (do not resusitate) , or there families will as per the patients wishes.
DNR means no ICU.

copeyhagen · 28-09-2020 11:25am

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Are they releasing details of the ages of those who die?

I saw them for a few countries and the average age of people who die of covid is higher than the average age of people who die of everything else. For example, following the same logic as other countries, if the average age of men dying in Ireland is 78, then I would expect to see the average age of men dying of covid to be 82 or so. In other words, people live longer than average if they die of covid....

I'm not into conspiracy theories but the fact it's so hard to find this information makes me feel there is some dishonesty going on with the data. If it turns out almost no one under 50 dies of this disease, then serious questions need to be asked as to why everyone was forced to stay at home when it should have only been the old and sick.

yeh the hse report had it, 100 people died with no underlying conditions.

mean age of deaths was 84! that was from a few weeks ago though

FintanMcluskey · 28-09-2020 11:26am

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I think there is non-invasive vs invasive ventilation. Basically a mask vs a tube down into your lungs. The latter is a tough procedure that is pretty harsh even on a young and otherwise strong person. They found that its not really something you can do to someone old, frail and weak as they're unlikely to recover from that procedure alone.

Ive been told the test itself is similar.

Rather intelorable

MOH · 28-09-2020 11:28am

OMM 0000 wrote: »

I'm not into conspiracy theories but the fact it's so hard to find this information makes me feel there is some dishonesty going on with the data. If it turns out almost no one under 50 dies of this disease, then serious questions need to be asked as to why everyone was forced to stay at home when it should have only been the old and sick.

Every time I see something like that I wonder would people say the same if Covid death rates were highest among, say, those under age 15.

OMM 0000 · 28-09-2020 11:37am

MOH wrote: »

Every time I see something like that I wonder would people say the same if Covid death rates were highest among, say, those under age 15.

It's not the same. Children can't be isolated. Adults can.

OMM 0000 · 28-09-2020 11:39am

copeyhagen wrote: »

yeh the hse report had it, 100 people dide with no underlying conditions.

mean age of deaths was 84! that was from a few weeks ago though

Why isn't this bigger news?

The virus is mainly killing people who are a few years older than the average lifespan.

And these old people can be easily isolated as they don't need to work anymore.

Yet for some reason the government has decided to destroy the economy, destroy the lives of millions of Irish people, and cause an absolute mass of depression, abuse and addiction problems.

Russman · 28-09-2020 11:39am

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Are they releasing details of the ages of those who die?

I saw them for a few countries and the average age of people who die of covid is higher than the average age of people who die of everything else. For example, following the same logic as other countries, if the average age of men dying in Ireland is 78, then I would expect to see the average age of men dying of covid to be 82 or so. In other words, people live longer than average if they die of covid....

I'm not into conspiracy theories but the fact it's so hard to find this information makes me feel there is some dishonesty going on with the data. If it turns out almost no one under 50 dies of this disease, then serious questions need to be asked as to why everyone was forced to stay at home when it should have only been the old and sick.

Or maybe when things started happening the virus was so new that nobody knew much about it ? Hindsight is great but governments around the world have to take a conservative approach and can't gamble with citizens lives. Its all very well to argue we needn't have done something, but what if we hadn't done it and it turned out we should have ? There'd be the same people calling for heads to roll.

I dunno, this craic of people thinking there's some vast conspiracy going on or everyone is being lied to by government just doesn't stack up. Why oh why would almost every government in the world crash their economies and fudge death numbers just for the heck of it ?

OMM 0000 · 28-09-2020 11:40am

Russman wrote: »

Or maybe when things started happening the virus was so new that nobody knew much about it ? Hindsight is great but governments around the world have to take a conservative approach and can't gamble with citizens lives. Its all very well to argue we needn't have done something, but what if we hadn't done it and it turned out we should have ? There'd be the same people calling for heads to roll.

I dunno, this craic of people thinking there's some vast conspiracy going on or everyone is being lied to by government just doesn't stack up. Why oh why would almost every government in the world crash their economies and fudge death numbers just for the heck of it ?

Your argument makes sense if we are 6 months ago, but we're not, we know who is affected yet we continue to lock down everyone instead of those at risk.

MOH · 28-09-2020 11:40am

OMM 0000 wrote: »

It's not the same. Children can't be isolated. Adults can.

It's exactly the same. Children can be quarantined along with their families.

breezy1985 · 28-09-2020 11:42am

Covid 19

Russman · 28-09-2020 11:42am

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Why isn't this bigger news?

The virus is mainly killing people who are a few years older than the average lifespan.

And these old people can be easily isolated as they don't need to work anymore.

Yet for some reason the government has decided to destroy the economy, destroy the lives of millions of Irish people, and cause an absolute mass of depression, abuse and addiction problems.

How can they be easily isolated ? Maybe just tell them they've reached the age that doesn't matter and joe bloggs would rather have his pints, so sorry guys, its solitary for ye ?

And do you really think they did this just for sh1ts and giggles ?

OMM 0000 · 28-09-2020 11:42am

MOH wrote: »

It's exactly the same. Children can be quarantined along with their families.

Children need adult supervision. They can't be left alone. They can't cook their food, etc.

Isolating children is not the same as isolating adults. You know this so please don't double down because you can't admit you made a mistake or refuse to learn something new.

Russman · 28-09-2020 11:43am

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Your argument makes sense if we are 6 months ago, but we're not, we know who is affected yet we continue to lock down everyone instead of those at risk.

Because you can't cut off a cohort of society, its just not possible.

28-09-2020 11:43am

MOH wrote: »

Every time I see something like that I wonder would people say the same if Covid death rates were highest among, say, those under age 15.

You really can’t compare children dying to 80+ year olds IMO.

Of course it would be much sadder and more would have to be done to save children.

copeyhagen · 28-09-2020 11:43am

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Why isn't this bigger news?

The virus is mainly killing people who are a few years older than the average lifespan.

And these old people can be easily isolated as they don't need to work anymore.

Yet for some reason the government has decided to destroy the economy, destroy the lives of millions of Irish people, and cause an absolute mass of depression, abuse and addiction problems.

its not bigger news because the pro lockdown crowd have moved the goalposts to being number of cases now, not deaths.

Geuze · 28-09-2020 11:44am

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Are they releasing details of the ages of those who die?

See here:

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/br/b-cdc/covid-19deathsandcasesseries12/

OMM 0000 · 28-09-2020 11:44am

Russman wrote: »

How can they be easily isolated ? Maybe just tell them they've reached the age that doesn't matter and joe bloggs would rather have his pints, so sorry guys, its solitary for ye ?

And do you really think they did this just for sh1ts and giggles ?

They did it because they haven't thought it through, they're copying everyone else, and they don't want to be seen as having made a mistake (look at how Sweden is shat on for doing something different).

Isolating the at risk adults is not that difficult. Just arrange food deliveries, etc.

And if they don't want to isolate, that should be their decision, but they should understand they are at risk.

Surely this is a lot smarter than isolating people who have zero chance of dying.

Geuze · 28-09-2020 11:46am

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Are they releasing details of the ages of those who die?

From a quick glance at the CSO data, everybody who has died since June, with or of COVID-19, has been over 65, and many over 80?

FintanMcluskey · 28-09-2020 11:47am

MOH wrote: »

Every time I see something like that I wonder would people say the same if Covid death rates were highest among, say, those under age 15.

No, because they havent reached the end of their natural lives like most Covid victims.

You cannot suggest a nursing home death, or any deaths around the age of 84 could be compared to a 15 year old dying.

OMM 0000 · 28-09-2020 11:47am

Certain groups of people are more likely to get HIV, so they are given PrEP, a drug which can prevent HIV transmission.

It wouldn't make sense to force everyone in Ireland to take this drug as their risk of getting HIV is tiny.

So why force a healthy 25 year old to stay at home and lose his job?

Geuze · 28-09-2020 11:48am

28% of deaths = age 65-79
65% of deaths = aged over 80

7% under age 65

MOH · 28-09-2020 11:48am

MOH wrote: »

It's exactly the same. Children can be quarantined along with their families.

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Children need adult supervision. They can't be left alone. They can't cook their food, etc.

Isolating children is not the same as isolating adults. You know this so please don't double down because you can't admit you made a mistake or refuse to learn something new.

What part of along with their families did you not understand?
Or are you just deliberately ignoring that bit because you can't admit you made a mistake or refuse to learn something new?

Anyway, your point is fairly clear. Old people are worthless so let them die alone rather than inconvenience you. One can only hope you'll experience that yourself eventually.

OMM 0000 · 28-09-2020 11:49am

MOH wrote: »

What part of along with their families did you not understand?
Or are you just deliberately ignoring that bit because you can't admit you made a mistake or refuse to learn something new?

Anyway, your point is fairly clear. Old people are worthless so let them die alone rather than inconvenience you. One can only hope you'll experience that yourself eventually.

Ah yes, because I think old people should be isolated and protected, that means I think they're worthless and they should die alone.

What is wrong with you? Are you able to think at all?

And stop with the fantasy that it's children who are at risk.

spurious · 28-09-2020 11:50am

Isolation, regardless of food deliveries has a very detrimental effect on the mental health of many older people.

You can be damn sure if it was under 30s dying of something, the older brigade would do all in their power to protect them.

Russman · 28-09-2020 11:51am

OMM 0000 wrote: »

They did it because they haven't thought it through, they're copying everyone else, and they don't want to be seen as having made a mistake (look at how Sweden is shat on for doing something different).

Isolating the at risk adults is not that difficult. Just arrange food deliveries, etc.

And if they don't want to isolate, that should be their decision, but they should understand they are at risk.

Surely this is a lot smarter than isolating people who have zero chance of dying.

Haven't thought it through and just copying everyone else just doesn't stack up - could it be that the reason almost every country did what they did was that its the right thing to do ?

Sweden is shat on because they made a complete balls of it and they know it.

I'm not having a go, but "just arrange food deliveries" ? Seriously ?

The risk isn't zero of dying if you're younger, granted its very very low and probably a risk lots would accept, but its not as simple as living or dying. How many of the survivors wouldn't have survived if they didn't have hospital treatment ? If the hospitals were overrun and no beds were available would as many younger people, who would "usually" survive, not ? Who knows, and governments, rightly IMO, won't take that risk easily.
That's before anyone considers the long term effects of COVID.

MOH · 28-09-2020 11:52am

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No, because they havent reached the end of their natural lives like most Covid victims.

You cannot suggest a nursing home death, or any deaths around the age of 84 could be compared to a 15 year old dying.

WTF? Of course I can. People are people, a death is a death.
Somebody in their 80s isn't magically worth less because of their age.

See if your viewpoint changes when you're 83.

OMM 0000 · 28-09-2020 11:52am

spurious wrote: »

Isolation, regardless of food deliveries has a very detrimental effect on the mental health of many older people.

You can be damn sure if it was under 30s dying of something, the older brigade would do all in their power to protect them.

So let's isolate everyone and let everyone's mental health be affected...? I'm not sure that makes sense.

As I said earlier, the solution is people can isolate if they want, with a clear understanding of who is at risk so intelligent decisions can be made. And there should be support to make isolation as painless as possible.

Surely that is a significantly smarter strategy than ruining everything for everyone?

OMM 0000 · 28-09-2020 11:54am

Russman wrote: »

The risk isn't zero of dying if you're younger, granted its very very low and probably a risk lots would accept, but its not as simple as living or dying.

Nothing is zero risk.

Driving in your car has a real risk of death. So does showering.

This weird mentality where people want to try to reduce the risk to zero is madness.

People don't understand risk. If they did, they would understand lockdowns are higher risk than targeted isolation.

billybonkers · 28-09-2020 11:55am

These people still died prematurely of Covid 19. Is that not something to be concerned about? I doubt they wanted to die...

Why wouldn't we do all we can to stop people from dying prematurely?

MrStuffins · 28-09-2020 11:55am

One of the things I find weird about this whole thing is, when the Covid pandemic first hit it was widely reported:

"This virus is of particular concern to older people and those with underlying conditions. To them, it can be fatal".

Now we look at the deaths and that's exactly what we see. People with underlying conditions and older people dying!

So why are some elements acting like this is some sort of scandal?

OMM 0000 · 28-09-2020 11:55am

OSI wrote: »

I didn't realise you could catch HIV from being in the same room, shop, bus, train etc as an active asymptomatic carrier.

If you are a healthy adult of working age and you get COVID your risk of death is almost zero.

Why are you and others trying to pretend otherwise?

This idea of thinking everyone is at risk of death is wrong. Just like most people aren't at risk of getting HIV.

28-09-2020 11:57am

It's a clinically decision whether to escalate from ward level to ICU but yes if you have a DNAR attached, you most likely aren't a candidate to get escalated to ICU.

FintanMcluskey · 28-09-2020 11:58am

billybonkers wrote: »

These people still died prematurely of Covid 19. Is that not something to be concerned about? I doubt they wanted to die...

Why wouldn't we do all we can to stop people from dying prematurely?

Because its only Covid we do this for.

The greatest 1st world Illness known to man.

10 times the global Covid death toll starved to death this year, we dont need a vaccine to cure starvation.

OMM 0000 · 28-09-2020 11:59am

MrStuffins wrote: »

One of the things I find weird about this whole thing is, when the Covid pandemic first hit it was widely reported:

"This virus is of particular concern to older people and those with underlying conditions. To them, it can be fatal".

Now we look at the deaths and that's exactly what we see. People with underlying conditions and older people dying!

So why are some elements acting like this is some sort of scandal?

Because the reaction from the government hasn't been to protect older people and those with underlying conditions. It has been to protect everyone, even if that means they will lose their income, get depression, face poverty, start drinking heavily, etc.

The Gardai are at risk of being stabbed so they wear special clothes to protect them from that. Why not force everyone to wear those clothes too? We don't do that because they're not at risk...

billybonkers · 28-09-2020 11:59am

OMM 0000 wrote: »

If you are a healthy adult of working age and you get COVID your risk of death is almost zero.

Why are you and others trying to pretend otherwise?

This idea of thinking everyone is at risk of death is wrong. Just like most people aren't at risk of getting HIV.

But there is a risk of death if you get it. It affects many people differently.

We're meant to be protecting everybody in this situation with a particular focus on the elderly and vulnerable. I certainly don't want to get it or any of my family to get it.

28-09-2020 11:59am

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No, because they havent reached the end of their natural lives like most Covid victims.

You cannot suggest a nursing home death, or any deaths around the age of 84 could be compared to a 15 year old dying.

What we need to be looking at is QALY (quality adjusted life years). For you to suggest that just because somebody is in a nursing home/ over some arbitrary age is just a form of ageism.

https://academic.oup.com/heapol/article/21/5/402/578296

Russman · 28-09-2020 11:59am

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Nothing is zero risk.

Driving in your car has a real risk of death. So does showering.

This weird mentality where people want to try to reduce the risk to zero is madness.

People don't understand risk. If they did, they would understand lockdowns are higher risk than targeted isolation.

Nobody wants to get risk to zero, if there was a way of doing that the world would do it and get rid of COVID.

Targeted isolation is just not logistically possible, and certainly questionable morally IMO.
Imagine telling someone, say, your mother, "......well you're turning 60 tomorrow so that's it, no visitors or going to the shops for you. If you venture out, well, you know the risks, don't come calling me when you're wheezing on the floor.....its a dangerous world out there"

Mongfinder General · 28-09-2020 12:00pm

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Are they releasing details of the ages of those who die?

I saw them for a few countries and the average age of people who die of covid is higher than the average age of people who die of everything else. For example, following the same logic as other countries, if the average age of men dying in Ireland is 78, then I would expect to see the average age of men dying of covid to be 82 or so. In other words, people live longer than average if they die of covid....

I'm not into conspiracy theories but the fact it's so hard to find this information makes me feel there is some dishonesty going on with the data. If it turns out almost no one under 50 dies of this disease, then serious questions need to be asked as to why everyone was forced to stay at home when it should have only been the old and sick.

Dishonesty? You would need to know exactly what you're manipulating in order to extrapolate figures that misrepresent the truth.

There is no detail in the statistics because that would mean HSE providing more information than they are required to do and also taking responsibility for it. Not a chance. These lads are far too busy organising zoom calls about having zoom calls.

Russman · 28-09-2020 12:04pm

OMM 0000 wrote: »

If you are a healthy adult of working age and you get COVID your risk of death is almost zero.

Why are you and others trying to pretend otherwise?

This idea of thinking everyone is at risk of death is wrong. Just like most people aren't at risk of getting HIV.

So what ? Nobody has suggested otherwise. But what about long term chronic conditions as a result of COVID ? or what about asymptomatic transmission ?
If we let the virus run wild, our ICUs will be overrun in short order, whether it be with COVID patients or non COVID patients. What do you do then about the heart attack patient who needs ICU and can't get a bed ? or the young guy recovering from surgery and needs a few days in ICU ?

OMM 0000 · 28-09-2020 12:04pm

billybonkers wrote: »

But there is a risk of death if you get it. It affects many people differently.

We're meant to be protecting everybody in this situation with a particular focus on the elderly and vulnerable. I certainly don't want to get it or any of my family to get it.

There's a risk of death when you drive your car.

Nothing is zero risk.

The flu kills people every year but we don't isolate for that.

You need to weigh up the consequences of the lockdowns with the risk of death for the average person (almost zero) to see if it makes sense.

OMM 0000 · 28-09-2020 12:06pm

Russman wrote: »

So what ? Nobody has suggested otherwise. But what about long term chronic conditions as a result of COVID ? or what about asymptomatic transmission ?
If we let the virus run wild, our ICUs will be overrun in short order, whether it be with COVID patients or non COVID patients. What do you do then about the heart attack patient who needs ICU and can't get a bed ? or the young guy recovering from surgery and needs a few days in ICU ?

But we know that doesn't happen.

I live in a country which didn't do lockdowns (Japan) and everything is fine.

Sweden was even more relaxed and your fantasy didn't happen either.

MOH · 28-09-2020 12:07pm

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Ah yes, because I think old people should be isolated and protected, that means I think they're worthless and they should die alone.

What is wrong with you? Are you able to think at all?

And stop with the fantasy that it's children who are at risk.

Fantasy? Are you capable of basic reading comprehension? Or just deliberately misunderstanding anything you don't like?

I posited that *if* it were children who were most at risk, some people's attitudes would be a lot different than their general disregard for older people.

How noble and caring of you to suggest isolating older people long term for their own protection (and let's be clear, it's not at all primarily for your own convenience). Regardless of the impact of long term isolation on their mental and physical health. Or their inability to access any form of community support. Presumably this isolation will be until when (if ever) a vaccine is found, or they conveniently die in their isolation and save you having to worry about their wellbeing any more.

Do you have a newsletter or YouTube channel or something I could subscribe to for more of your wonderful social caring initiatives?

Russman · 28-09-2020 12:08pm

OMM 0000 wrote: »

There's a risk of death when you drive your car.

Nothing is zero risk.

The flu kills people every year but we don't isolate for that.

You need to weigh up the consequences of the lockdowns with the risk of death for the average person (almost zero) to see if it makes sense.

Come on, you know full well that COVID is way more virulent and lethal compared to flu.

Just be honest enough to say the lockdowns are inconvenient for you and you're sick of them. I'd agree with that too, we're all completely sick of it, but I don't see an easy way out if we're to even pretend we're a society rather than just a collection of individuals.

OMM 0000 · 28-09-2020 12:08pm

MOH wrote: »

Fantasy? Are you capable of basic reading comprehension? Or just deliberately misunderstanding anything you don't like?

I posited that *if* it were children who were most at risk, some people's attitudes would be a lot different than their general disregard for older people.

How noble and caring of you to suggest isolating older people long term for their own protection (and let's be clear, it's not at all primarily for your own convenience). Regardless of the impact of long term isolation on their mental and physical health. Or their inability to access any form of community support. Presumably this isolation will be until when (if ever) a vaccine is found, or they conveniently die in their isolation and save you having to worry about their wellbeing any more.

Do you have a newsletter or YouTube channel or something I could subscribe to for more of your wonderful social caring initiatives?

I live in Japan where there was no lockdown, everyone is continuing life as normal, and everything is fine.

We all wear masks everywhere.

I sense the issue here is you don't fully understand this topic and you're only listening to what the Irish government tells you. You shouldn't have such aggressive opinions when you are lacking a lot of knowledge.

Where are the deaths coming from?

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