Where are the deaths coming from?

Wanderer78

Russman wrote:

So the nerds love the spotlight and attention they never got in school, so they thought they’d crash the economy to get some of the good lovin’ and then keep it crashed because by God this oul attention lark is good fun eh ?

People are seriously weird on the Internets!

dubrov

Let's face it, continuing with the current approach is the easy option for the government. If it is incorrect, they can just point to the rest of Europe and state everyone else is doing it.

I'd be happier if the government just admitted they are holding on for a vaccine.

Wanderer78

dubrov wrote:

Let's face it, continuing with the current approach is the easy option for the government. If it is incorrect, they can just point to the rest of Europe and state everyone else is doing it.

Easy option how?

dubrov

Wanderer78 wrote:

Easy option how?

Because changing means being an outlier. If it goes wrong you get crucified

dubrov

I still think the Swedish approach was wrong in march btw. We knew very little about the virus and they made decisions based on assumptions that have proven false.

However, looking at the evidence now, it really makes no sense to isolate low risk categories

reg114

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Why isn't this bigger news?

The virus is mainly killing people who are a few years older than the average lifespan.

And these old people can be easily isolated as they don't need to work anymore.

Yet for some reason the government has decided to destroy the economy, destroy the lives of millions of Irish people, and cause an absolute mass of depression, abuse and addiction problems.

Are you familiar with the terms pericarditis or cardiac arrythmia ? Pericarditis is an inflammation of the sac around the heart, and arrythmia is a disruption to the regular beating of the heart. Doctors are discovering both are symptoms of covid 19 and have been found in 75% of ALL COVID patients regardless of age. Both cardiac conditions are serious and can increase likelihood of heart attack at . Note I said 'regardless of age'.

https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/07/27/Three-quarters-of-adults-with-COVID-19-have-heart-damage-after-recovery/5451595856303/

Covid 19 is disproportionately affecting those people who are obese, that is 50 % of Irish population, it also affects those with high blood pressure disproportionately which is 51% of the entire population.

So with such a large 'at risk population' (outside of the elderly in nursing homes) based on high blood pressure and obesity stats, plus the long term cardiac and pulmonary effects its not really advisable to open up the economy and let the virus run rampant. There also could be other symptoms we are not aware of.

Throw in the fact that Ireland has the lowest hospital bed and more specifically ICU bed numbers per capita of all oecd countries which terrifies the HSE because if there is an increase in cases that need to be hospitalised the HSE has nowhere to treat these patients. I think the icu capacity in the entire country is only about 400 beds which is nothing.

So its the serious cardiac symptoms which can also affect younger patients, combined with the high pool of target obese / high blood pressure Irish population combined with lack of beds that is driving the cautious approach by the Irish and indeed every other government right now.

IAmTheReign

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No.

What we need to be looking at is that Covid disproportionately affects those who are obese.

Now does your link take into account the life quality of those who are obese, above the age of life expectancy in a nursing home?

Yes, QALY calculations consider things like obesity rates in the general population. That's what the quality adjusted part means, things that reduce quality of life, like obesity, or drug addiction are considered when determining the best course of action. It's commonly used for allocating limited resources in the medical system and is why alcoholics rarely get liver transplants.

Say you have a hypothetical situation where two patients present themselves with severs respiratory problems due to COVID but there is only one ventilator. One is an 85 year old man, one is a 15 year old boy. I don't think anyone would argue that the hospital should prioritise the 15 year old boy. People get very emotional when you start talking about applying similar assessments to the general population though.

Now that doesn't mean that just because dying from a disease are on average older than the average life expectancy that we should just say they don't matter. It just means that we should consider this fact in determining the best course of action for society at large. How many people have had other medical treatments postponed, how many have lost jobs that they won't get back, how many are suffering from mental illness, depression and anxiety? How many people have been asked to spend a year or more of the best years of their life existing rather than living? We should be looking at if there are better ways of protecting those who are genuinely at risk that minimise the impact on the rest of the country.

malinheader

reg114 wrote: »

Are you familiar with the terms pericarditis or cardiac arrythmia ? Pericarditis is an inflammation of the sac around the heart, and arrythmia is a disruption to the regular beating of the heart. Doctors are discovering both are symptoms of covid 19 and have been found in 75% of ALL COVID patients regardless of age. Both cardiac conditions are serious and can increase likelihood of heart attack at . Note I said 'regardless of age'.

https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/07/27/Three-quarters-of-adults-with-COVID-19-have-heart-damage-after-recovery/5451595856303/

Covid 19 is disproportionately affecting those people who are obese, that is 50 % of Irish population, it also affects those with high blood pressure disproportionately which is 51% of the entire population.

So with such a large 'at risk population' (outside of the elderly in nursing homes) based on high blood pressure and obesity stats, plus the long term cardiac and pulmonary effects its not really advisable to open up the economy and let the virus run rampant. There also could be other symptoms we are not aware of.

Throw in the fact that Ireland has the lowest hospital bed and more specifically ICU bed numbers per capita of all oecd countries which terrifies the HSE because if there is an increase in cases that need to be hospitalised the HSE has nowhere to treat these patients. I think the icu capacity in the entire country is only about 400 beds which is nothing.

So its the serious cardiac symptoms which can also affect younger patients, combined with the high pool of target obese / high blood pressure Irish population combined with lack of beds that is driving the cautious approach by the Irish and indeed every other government right now.

Agree totally with everything you have said but on the other side of this I have a
Friend who passed away due to negligence which would not of happened if the doctors were operating properly and another friend starting chemo but should of been starting it 6 months ago . Alot of deaths are going to happen due to covid without contracting it.
Wouldn't want to be the one making the decisions right now.

ranto_boy

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

You have to bare in mind that a long haul covid syndrome is becoming increasingly common and at present we do not know what the outcome of that will be. James's hospital was featured on the news today and their research so far is that 50% of patients are still reporting disabling symptoms several months after infection, even those who had mild illness.

It's not a "mild illness" if you're a patient at hospital. And again we know the numbers of hospitalised young people is minuscule compared to the older folks.

I know the government are wheeling out the poor unfortunate younger people who've had a bad dose (no pics of them before getting sick though...) as a warning but let's be honest, the numbers don't back up this new stance in any which way.

I had pneumonia in my early 20s. Absolutely knocked the stuffing out of me. Didn't go to hospital or anything, but was a couple of months before I was back into the swing of things.

s1ippy

That's different. The lungs can generally repair themselves well enough (maybe not good as new but they'll functionally improve), but if the heart muscle is badly damaged, it can't. It will remain damaged for as long as you need to use your heart.

https://www.myocarditisfoundation.org/about-myocarditis/

Nermal

dubrov wrote: »

Let's face it, continuing with the current approach is the easy option for the government. If it is incorrect, they can just point to the rest of Europe and state everyone else is doing it.

"No-one ever got fired for buying IBM."

ranto_boy

s1ippy wrote: »

That's different. The lungs can generally repair themselves well enough (maybe not good as new but they'll functionally improve), but if the heart muscle is badly damaged, it can't. It will remain damaged for as long as you need to use your heart.

https://www.myocarditisfoundation.org/about-myocarditis/

Until I see numbers (and ages) of this, I remain totally unconvinced. I'll put it up there with the kids dying of related corona story of a few months back, completely made up for the hysterical times we're in.

It's 7 months since this kicked off, should easily be able to point to the numbers. No not the one of median age of death being above average life expectancy, no not the one where driving a car is more risky than corona for young people, no not the one where 9+ people a day usually die from respiratory disease but didn't make the news until March...

Right now people are saying that patients who end in hospital with a respiratory disease, aren't fully fit a few months later. And I'm supposed to be surprised. And that's supposedly the basis for the drastic measures still in effect 6 months after they should have been shelved.

Wanderer78

dubrov wrote: »

Because changing means being an outlier. If it goes wrong you get crucified

so theyre deliberately crashing the economy, to save face?

Zebra3

Wanderer78 wrote: »

so theyre deliberately crashing the economy, to save face?

It's been done before.

Just look at how "the cheapest bailout in the world" worked out for us.

Wanderer78

Zebra3 wrote: »

It's been done before.

Just look at how "the cheapest bailout in the world" worked out for us.

that was a bargain! we got looked after, with that discount!

Russman

dubrov wrote: »

Let's face it, continuing with the current approach is the easy option for the government. If it is incorrect, they can just point to the rest of Europe and state everyone else is doing it.

I'd be happier if the government just admitted they are holding on for a vaccine.

Or maybe the combined best medical and scientific minds across Europe came to the conclusion that the current approach was the best option ?

I think everybody knows that every government is holding out for a vaccine tbh.

I mean, even take a situation where the virus is let run wild or even if we tried to "protect the vulnerable" (whatever that actually means), its only a matter of time before ICUs fill up regardless. Do you tell young Joe who happens to need ICU to get over COVID that ".....sorry, Peter needs it more because he's had a heart attack so he get's it first" ? or do you tell Peter that "sorry mate we're full of COVID patients, but sure ye wanted the economy open, whattaya gonna do ?"

Thats apart from the fact that the economy IS mostly open, but people can't f--king behave or just change their behaviours for a few more months. Are we really that desperate for a few pints ?

IAmTheReign

Russman wrote: »

Or maybe the combined best medical and scientific minds across Europe came to the conclusion that the current approach was the best option ?

I think everybody knows that every government is holding out for a vaccine tbh.

I mean, even take a situation where the virus is let run wild or even if we tried to "protect the vulnerable" (whatever that actually means), its only a matter of time before ICUs fill up regardless. Do you tell young Joe who happens to need ICU to get over COVID that ".....sorry, Peter needs it more because he's had a heart attack so he get's it first" ? or do you tell Peter that "sorry mate we're full of COVID patients, but sure ye wanted the economy open, whattaya gonna do ?"

Thats apart from the fact that the economy IS mostly open, but people can't f--king behave or just change their behaviours for a few more months. Are we really that desperate for a few pints ?

Would you stop going on like people are only unhappy because they can't get out for a pint? The lockdown is having actual negative consequences.

• 200,000 people are currently out of work because of COVID
• 10s of thousands can't pay their mortgage
• At risk youths are unable to access support services
• The number of people accessing mental health services more than doubled during lockdown

The number of people who are seriously impacted by the measures in place to control COVID far exceeds the number of people actually impacted by the disease itself. Telling someone who's depressed and has lost their job to stop complaining because they can't go to the pub is condescending in the extreme.

crossman47

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Are they releasing details of the ages of those who die?

I saw them for a few countries and the average age of people who die of covid is higher than the average age of people who die of everything else. For example, following the same logic as other countries, if the average age of men dying in Ireland is 78, then I would expect to see the average age of men dying of covid to be 82 or so. In other words, people live longer than average if they die of covid....

I'm not into conspiracy theories but the fact it's so hard to find this information makes me feel there is some dishonesty going on with the data. If it turns out almost no one under 50 dies of this disease, then serious questions need to be asked as to why everyone was forced to stay at home when it should have only been the old and sick.

See https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/br/b-cdc/covid-19deathsandcasesseries12/

IAmTheReign

IAmTheReign wrote: »

................

The number of people who are seriously impacted by the measures in place to control COVID far exceeds the number of people actually impacted by the disease itself. Telling someone who's depressed and has lost their job to stop complaining because they can't go to the pub is condescending in the extreme.

So do we bin the measures to control covid so and see how many are impacted?

OMM 0000

IAmTheReign wrote: »

Telling someone who's depressed and has lost their job to stop complaining because they can't go to the pub is condescending in the extreme.

This is why I wish there was accurate profile information next to each person's comment.

I think a lot of the pro-lockdown folk live with their parents and aren't fully independent.

Try having a few kids, losing your job, and wondering how you're going to pay your bills next month. And then you look at the data and realise you and your immediate family have virtually zero risk from this virus. And then you look at who's making the decisions to destroy the country and economy and you realise they are all wealthy with secure jobs.

Yet when you question the lockdown and point out how many other countries have continued almost as if this virus doesn't exist and things are mostly fine, people start saying the real issue is you are just tired of not being able to get pints.

And to make things even worse, these people double down on their opinions and refuse to learn anything new.

Zebra3

OMM 0000 wrote: »

I think a lot of the pro-lockdown folk live with their parents and aren't fully independent.

And then there's the ones who can WFH, no pay cut, no more commuting time or bills, more time with the kids, all rosey, why are so many people complaining "we are all in this together"?

Wanderer78

Zebra3 wrote: »

And then there's the ones who can WFH, no pay cut, no more commuting time or bills, more time with the kids, all rosey, why are so many people complaining "we are all in this together"?

= me bollcoks!

OMM 0000

Zebra3 wrote: »

And then there's the ones who can WFH, no pay cut, no more commuting time or bills, more time with the kids, all rosey, why are so many people complaining "we are all in this together"?

I am working from home in a country with no lockdown. I am in senior management in IT so I'm one of the lucky ones.

My concern isn't for me, I'm going to be fine, even if I lose my job I have a lot of savings. But I know most people aren't lucky like me and they are really struggling.

Seeing these mismanaged lockdowns is infuriating. We have idiots running countries.

Wanderer78

OMM 0000 wrote: »

I am working from home in a country with no lockdown. I am in senior management in IT so I'm one of the lucky ones.

My concern isn't for me, I'm going to be fine, even if I lose my job I have a lot of savings. But I know most people aren't lucky like me and they are really struggling.

Seeing these mismanaged lockdowns is infuriating. We have idiots running countries.

running a country isnt easy, you can be damn sure boardies such as ourselves wouldnt be able to do a better job, but our egos might tell us otherwise

FintanMcluskey

OMM 0000 wrote: »

This is why I wish there was accurate profile information next to each person's comment.

I think a lot of the pro-lockdown folk live with their parents and aren't fully independent.

Try having a few kids, losing your job, and wondering how you're going to pay your bills next month. And then you look at the data and realise you and your immediate family have virtually zero risk from this virus. And then you look at who's making the decisions to destroy the country and economy and you realise they are all wealthy with secure jobs.

Yet when you question the lockdown and point out how many other countries have continued almost as if this virus doesn't exist and things are mostly fine, people start saying the real issue is you are just tired of not being able to get pints.

And to make things even worse, these people double down on their opinions and refuse to learn anything new.

Some said it last week, trying to reason someone out of an opinion with stats and data, when that person hasn't reasoned themseves into that opinion with stats and data is pointless.

There has been an abdication of all self thought.

Fact is, excess deaths are at about 850 for the year until July, and the months after are well below average.

A point is going to come, when Covid wont actually have killed anyone at all

Wanderer78

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Some said it last week, trying to reason someone out of an opinion with stats and data, when that person hasn't reasoned themseves into that opinion with stats and data is pointless.

There has been an abdication of all self thought.

Fact is, excess deaths are at about 850 for the year until July, and the months after are well below average.

A point is going to come, when Covid wont actually have killed anyone at all

how so?

spaceHopper

IAmTheReign wrote: »

Would you stop going on like people are only unhappy because they can't get out for a pint? The lockdown is having actual negative consequences.

• 200,000 people are currently out of work because of COVID
• 10s of thousands can't pay their mortgage
• At risk youths are unable to access support services
• The number of people accessing mental health services more than doubled during lockdown

The number of people who are seriously impacted by the measures in place to control COVID far exceeds the number of people actually impacted by the disease itself. Telling someone who's depressed and has lost their job to stop complaining because they can't go to the pub is condescending in the extreme.

Yes I can see all that but, there is a larger part of our population that will die if they get this. At the same time they are missing out on life like seeing their grandchildren grow up, kids change so fast and they are missing out but if they get covid, they die so this is the way it has to be. If people stopped moaning on the internet and stopped getting together in large groups or got a handle on their teen kids maybe we could be like other countries who have opened back up.

One criticism I have of the government is they have put zero effort into making covid safe events or activities for people we all know that people are getting frustrated with this

OMM 0000

Wanderer78 wrote: »

running a country isnt easy, you can be damn sure boardies such as ourselves wouldnt be able to do a better job, but our egos might tell us otherwise

This goes beyond difficulty.

They have literally chosen to destroy the economy and the lives of a large percentage of the population.

And they are still trying to do it, even though we know (Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, etc.) it is completely unnecessary.

Wanderer78

OMM 0000 wrote: »

This goes beyond difficulty.

They have literally chosen to destroy the economy and the lives of a large percentage of the population.

And they are still trying to do it, even though we know (Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, etc.) it is completely unnecessary.

theyre not purposely doing this, they exist in our society also, why would they want to purposely fcuk themselves up as well? running a country, during an extremely rare event, its extremely difficult, our health care system may not have the capacity to deal with this, during peak season.

tobefrank321

bobbyy gee wrote: »

Projected deaths 19000


https://covid19.healthdata.org/ireland?view=total-deaths&tab=trend

The "experts" predicted something like 100,000 deaths for Sweden if they didn't lock down.