Where are the deaths coming from?

weldoninhio

Wanderer78 wrote: »

running a country isnt easy, you can be damn sure boardies such as ourselves wouldnt be able to do a better job, but our egos might tell us otherwise

How do you know? They’re hardly the brains of Ireland. A few school teachers, career brown nosers, college dropouts, the odd degree. The vast majority have zero knowledge of life outside their political circle. How many are from council estates?

Wanderer78

bb1234567 wrote: »

They make up the bulk of the deaths because originally outbreaks were more concentrated in nursing homes, ie. the most vulnerable people were also most likely to become infected. I think it is a mistake to say that because most of the deaths were in this age group that they are the only age group that could be badly affected. Limited community outbreaks would skew this figure.

It is a risk to people in the 50-70 age group as well, as we can see from death statistics in South and North America where the virus is much more prevalent in the community than in Ireland. In the United States over 42,000 people under 65 have died of COVID in the USA as of September. In Brazil about 50,000 people under 65 have died of COVID. In India about 50,000 as well. Mexico similar proportion.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/older-adults.html
So there is clearly an appreciable risk for people younger than nursing home age as well.

people really are nuts on the internets!

Wanderer78

weldoninhio wrote: »

How do you know? They’re hardly the brains of Ireland. A few school teachers, career brown nosers, college dropouts, the odd degree. The vast majority have zero knowledge of life outside their political circle. How many are from council estates?

small id imagine, us on the internets think we could do better if we were doing the job, thats just our egos talking, be wary of the ego, ive one of them, and hes one narcissistic arsehole at times, oh ive met one or two politicians, its one sh1t job

IAmTheReign

Augeo wrote: »

So do we bin the measures to control covid so and see how many are impacted?

No one is saying bin all measure to control COVID, people are rightly asking if the measures in place are the most effective way to deal with the problem.

I agreed with the initial lockdown. No one really knew what the potential impact of the disease was at the time. We do now though. Fatalities are overwhelmingly confined to >65s, and even among the elderly 95% of those who died had underlying health issues.

That doesn't mean we should throw the sick and the elderly to the wolves, it means efforts should be targeted at isolating those who are actually at a significant risk from COVID until an effective treatment can be found.

weldoninhio

Wanderer78 wrote: »

think we should also allow people to take on as much debt as possible, win win......

We are already, well, our govt is.

Wanderer78

weldoninhio wrote: »

We are already, well, our govt is.

rising public debt has caused far less problems than rising private debt, its not a problem

Russman

weldoninhio wrote: »

Hindsight? The nerds at NPHET have come out today and said they think we’ll need rolling lockdowns for the foreseeable future.

WHO said that several months ago too, they figured thats how it would play out over the next year or so.

bb1234567

Wanderer78 wrote: »

people really are nuts on the internets!

What do you mean?
My theory makes sense. If the USA's deaths under 65 were adjusted to Ireland's size, we would have seen 650 deaths under 65. We've seen much fewer than that as our population has had a much more limited community outbreak.

OMM 0000

Wanderer78 wrote: »

ah right, so those businesses that have been bailed out, is due to unsuccessful ceo's, yea?

You're purposefully choosing to misunderstand.

A successful CEO has worked his way up the ranks and now leads a successful company. He has real world work experience, leadership skills, knows how to run an organisation and probably has some sort of management qualification. Again, I'm talking about a successful CEO.

A politician doesn't need any work experience or any skills apart from being able to get people to vote for them. For example, our current leader, Micheál Martin, has one year of real world work experience (history teacher). Do you really think that makes him more qualified than a successful CEO?

So we have a person with one year of teaching experience running the country. Amazing.

Wanderer78

bb1234567 wrote: »

What do you mean?
My theory makes sense. If the USA's deaths under 65 were adjusted to Ireland's size, we would have seen 650 deaths under 65. We've seen much fewer than that as our population has had a much more limited community outbreak.

they re not fcuking lying, ffs, stop reading sh1te on the internets

bb1234567

Wanderer78 wrote: »

they re not fcuking lying, ffs, stop reading sh1te on the internets

What? Who did I accuse of lying?

USA has a similar age demographic as Ireland, yet they have seen 6x times as many COVID deaths under 65 per capita. Clearly we have not had a large community outbreak yet at least on the scale of the US.

It's not ****e on the internet, it's CDC official death records of US covid deaths

Genghis

For me, neither of the key stats we need are reliable - the % of population that has been infected, and the % of infected who have died (and by extension the % of population who have died).

To be accurate, any infection rate would need to include asymptomatic cases, which are not being uncovered and are difficult to test for post infection. The death rate can only be established once the infection rate is known (and ideally with standard definition re: counting co-existing conditions, etc).

In relation to the stats that have actually been released continuously and on a consistent basis over the past 6 months, the death rate is far flatter now than in what we call 'wave 1'. I think that is because in wave 1 the disease had spread through the older population (via nursing homes), resulting in higher mortality rates - now, its is running through younger people the death rate is far lower. I suspect also the asymptomatic rate is also higher now as young people are also more likely to be asymptomatic.

The government / media narrative is to leverage the higher daily count to heighten fears / implement lockdowns. They never really have to explain why death rates, ICU and bed occupancy are lower this time round (even if they are steadily rising, they are rising more slowly).

They are even able to equate the death rate from wave 1 with wave 2 and then suggest that younger people may be at the same risk of death as the elderly people were from wave 1 - even though the death rates have yet to show that actually happening.

I think if real data points could be established - e.g. between infection rate and death rate across age groups, we could perhaps come up with overall better coping mechanisms - e.g. risk based controls for a general population (sensible precautions, but normal life) and for at-risk population (70+, underlying conditions), etc. Maybe a 5-level risk chart for the individual based on these factors instead of a 5 level lockdown table for wide geographic areas.

weldoninhio

Russman wrote: »

WHO said that several months ago too, they figured thats how it would play out over the next year or so.

Same WHO who said they backed masks because of “political pressure”??

FintanMcluskey

bb1234567 wrote: »

What? Who did I accuse of lying?

USA has a similar age demographic as Ireland, yet they have seen 6x times as many COVID deaths under 65. Clearly we have not had a large community outbreak yet at least on the scale of the US.

It's not ****e on the internet, it's CDC official death records of US covid deaths

For some reason the not well published fact about Covid is how severly it effects obesity.

3xh

Augeo wrote: »

Really........

Augeo, again; NPHET can stay and pronounce things like max 15 people wherever so that if you walk by a restaurant and it has 15 people in it (or outside as it is currently) you can decide yourself that you’re not happy to stop by but continue onto another place that has 14 patrons.

By doing so, it allows a restauranteur to open up fully and allows their potential patrons to decide.

Currently, restauranteurs (and all business owners basically, for that matter) are following the advice about limits etc) by threat of enforcement action.

Same with max gym class sizes. NEPHT can recommend X is the max. If you turn up and it’s full (multiples of X) you as the adult can say, nope, Ronan said X is the max, I’m going home.

If you choose to fully follow NPHET’s advice, it won’t affect you whether there’s 16 sitting outside a restaurant or a full house of patrons. You won’t be there anyway?

You mitigate your risks by getting home delivery? You’re working from home again if you’re county is ‘closed’? You’ve cut your contacts in half this week, yes? Are there any restrictions/advice you don’t agree with and/or break?

They can advise away. It’s the cessation of government blindly following them that I’m calling for. A reversal of policy to one where business owners and customers are free to choose who opens and who visits as opposed to all forced to comply, as is currently.

Wanderer78

OMM 0000 wrote: »

You're purposefully choosing to misunderstand.

A successful CEO has worked his way up the ranks and now leads a successful company. He has real world work experience, leadership skills, knows how to run an organisation and probably has some sort of management qualification. Again, I'm talking about a successful CEO.

A politician doesn't need any work experience or any skills apart from being able to get people to vote for them. For example, our current leader, Micheál Martin, has one year of real world work experience (history teacher). Do you really think that make him more qualified than a successful CEO?

no im not, please explain how successful ceo's are so, and politicians are scum, when many well known corporations and financial institutions have been bailed out, and on a regular basis, particularly during downturns, are you seriously trying to tell me, thats always due to unsuccessful ceo's?? they seem to be doing just fine when they leave, with their stock options and millions in the bak, and before they leave they probably engage in financial activities such as share buy backs. successful, me hole! sure look across the pond and the other fella! dont be shoveling that sh1t around the place, and keep a good eye on your ego, he can be a little narcissistic at times!

bb1234567

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

For some reason the not well published fact about Covid is how severly it effects obesity.

Yes true, USA's obesity rate is 75% higher than that of Ireland's. But even taking that into account USA's covid deaths under 65 are proportionally still significantly higher

Zebra3

bb1234567 wrote: »

What? Who did I accuse of lying?

USA has a similar age demographic as Ireland, yet they have seen 6x times as many COVID deaths under 65 per capita. Clearly we have not had a large community outbreak yet at least on the scale of the US.

It's not ****e on the internet, it's CDC official death records of US covid deaths

I'd guess there is a lot of people in the US in poor health due to the absolute crap they eat, working 2-3 jobs to survive, and people who lost their jobs as a result of covid with no social support to survive.

The average Irish person tends to look healthier than the average American, and one's immune system is crucial.

FintanMcluskey

Zebra3 wrote: »

I'd guess there is a lot of people in the US in poor health due to the absolute crap they eat, working 2-3 jobs to survive, and people who lost their jobs as a result of covid with no social support to survive.

The average Irish person tends to look healthier than the average American, and one's immune system is crucial.

Its coming for obese like nothing before.

Its not well known though, it seems.

Interesting to know the BMI of those who died or needed intensive treatment

OMM 0000

Wanderer78 wrote: »

no im not, please explain how successful ceo's are so, and politicians are scum, when many well known corporations and financial institutions have been bailed out, and on a regular basis, particularly during downturns, are you seriously trying to tell me, thats always due to unsuccessful ceo's?? they seem to be doing just fine when they leave, with their stock options and millions in the bak, and before they leave they probably engage in financial activities such as share buy backs. successful, me hole! sure look across the pond and the other fella! dont be shoveling that sh1t around the place, and keep a good eye on your ego, he can be a little narcissistic at times!

Look, I know from your history you hate people who are successful or not working class, so I'm not going to participate in a stupid conversation where you pretend successful CEOs don't exist. Get a grip.

suicide_circus

We know this disease is primarily fatal to the elderly and infirm.

What exactly is the argument against focusing on isolating/cocooning this group and letting the young and able bodied keep the show on the road?

3xh

3xh wrote: »

Augeo, again; NPHET can stay and pronounce things like max 15 people wherever so that if you walk by a restaurant and it has 15 people in it (or outside as it is currently) you can decide yourself that you’re not happy to stop by but continue onto another place that has 14 patrons.

By doing so, it allows a restauranteur to open up fully and allows their potential patrons to decide.

Currently, restauranteurs (and all business owners basically, for that matter) are following the advice about limits etc) by threat of enforcement action.

Same with max gym class sizes. NEPHT can recommend X is the max. If you turn up and it’s full (multiples of X) you as the adult can say, nope, Ronan said X is the max, I’m going home.

If you choose to fully follow NPHET’s advice, it won’t affect you whether there’s 16 sitting outside a restaurant or a full house of patrons. You won’t be there anyway?

You mitigate your risks by getting home delivery? You’re working from home again if you’re county is ‘closed’? You’ve cut your contacts in half this week, yes? Are there any restrictions/advice you don’t agree with and/or break?

They can advise away. It’s the cessation of government blindly following them that I’m calling for. A reversal of policy to one where business owners and customers are free to choose who opens and who visits as opposed to all forced to comply, as is currently.

total rubbish................ the increase in infection rates is caused by folk not following the guidelines........ without them the infection rate would be higher... if folk don't wear masks then me wearing one won't protect me will it. You are proposing do whatever you like for all. A significant proportion of the population are th1ck as sh1t and have no regard for others.

where are you calling for this BTW? Just here? LOL

3xh wrote: »

ou mitigate your risks by getting home delivery? You’re working from home again if you’re county is ‘closed’? You’ve cut your contacts in half this week, yes? Are there any restrictions/advice you don’t agree with and/or break?

I'm an essential worker. I've been beavering away throughout and haven't done any WFH. Following all restrictions & advice though.

3xh

Augeo wrote: »

I'm an essential worker. I've been beavering away throughout and haven't done any WFH. Following all restrictions & advice though.

Good to know. Similar to all the supermarket workers who were mingling with the public in March, April and May with no masks mandated. I’ve yet to hear of any such workers succumbing to it.

You’d think with all those cases (Similar to present) and with all the hospitalisations, ICUs and deaths that followed, supermarket workers in the air con buildings they spent 8-12hrs a day crossing maskless customers, would have a higher incidence.

FintanMcluskey

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

For some reason the not well published fact about Covid is how severly it effects obesity.

There is lots of data connecting obesity, T2DM, T1DM and COVID. Even with the ICU data published from the UK, this was obvious.

FintanMcluskey

Deleted User wrote: »

There is lots of data connecting obesity, T2DM, T1DM and COVID. Even with the ICU data published from the UK, this was obvious.

I know its there, you know its there because your front line saving lives and Im sure you get issued with medical publication's etc.

But one has to look for it.

I havent heard any advice to loose weight from NPHET however, just mask up and other nonsense.

MrStuffins

MrStuffins wrote: »

One of the things I find weird about this whole thing is, when the Covid pandemic first hit it was widely reported:

"This virus is of particular concern to older people and those with underlying conditions. To them, it can be fatal".

Now we look at the deaths and that's exactly what we see. People with underlying conditions and older people dying!

So why are some elements acting like this is some sort of scandal?

Because they moved patients from hospitals where there were active COVID infections to nursing homes and allowed visitations until April even though the head of the private nursing home sector was on TV every day begging them to allow them to close.

Genghis

Genghis wrote: »

For me, neither of the key stats we need are reliable - the % of population that has been infected, and the % of infected who have died (and by extension the % of population who have died).

Another factor you are forgetting is that we are testing many more people now. More tests = more cases. So 100 cases in March is probably equivalent to 1000 cases now.

Andrewf20

At this stage I suspect the whole thing is over blown. Loads of focus on cases with less reference to deaths despite cases rising since mid July here and other parts of Europe.

There also seems to be relatively little press coverage to try quantify the fall out of these lockdowns in terms of the rise in suicides (if any), cancers and other side affects.

I had a look at some numbers for perspective:

In europe in 2015 or 2016 for example - 60,000 died from suicide, 26,000 were killed in road accidents, 270,000 from lung cancer & 684,000 deaths occurred in under 65s from heart disease. And that's in 1 year. Approx 190,000 have died in Europe from covid as of yesterday.

Genghis

Deleted User wrote: »

Another factor you are forgetting is that we are testing many more people now. More tests = more cases. So 100 cases in March is probably equivalent to 1000 cases now.

The major point I was making is that what we are doing - now and then - does not really give us the overall infection and therefore overall mortality rate.

Yes, more tests = more cases, it also means more negatives. Taking a 'larger sample' does not always produce more accurate results, in fact it can result in dangerously inaccurate conclusion if you use an inexact sample to assess a large population.

And an inexact sample is what it is. Neither results - then or now - are representative of the overall population - as everyone being tested either has symptoms or is a close contact of a positive, and we are only testing at a particular point in time for the individuals involved.

To get a meaningful infection rate you would do a random sample test like is done for opinion polls - e.g. sample of around 1,000 randomly selected people, and do a test that shows if they ever had Covid. Sample may need to be larger to represent every age group, etc, but it has to be random, and it has to be able to detect Covid history.

If that could be done, and repeated in the same way say fortnightly or monthly, you could trend the % and assess the general risk / immunity, etc as we go through the pandemic.

That test above (i.e. 'ever had Covid' / antibody test) may not be possible, I am not sure, but what we seem to be doing is taking the test results that *are available* as being a true measure of infection and therefore mortality, which they are not.

They are likely to be:
- overstating the live infection rate (who have it now) as sample is 'likely to have Covid'
- understating the immunity (as we exclude asymptomatic, recovered, not yet infected people, and people who do not go to the doctor)
- overstating mortality as the number of deaths

I feel we are making really important societal decisions, decisions that impact everyone, based on poor and poorly understood data.

bb1234567

It's overblown in Europe I would say, but other parts of the world are suffering greatly. Excess deaths in Peru are 75,000 - 0.25% of the country's population, that is in just 5 months, that's not overblown, that's literally approaching spanish flu level of excess death considering the time frame.Ecuador not too much better. However Peru appears to be the worst case scenario worldwide in every sense, economy in absolute ruin due to the strictest and longest lockdown in the world, and yet they have the most deaths worldwide too. An absolute mess