Where are the deaths coming from?

OMM 0000

Russman wrote: »

Come on, you know full well that COVID is way more virulent and lethal compared to flu.

Just be honest enough to say the lockdowns are inconvenient for you and you're sick of them. I'd agree with that too, we're all completely sick of it, but I don't see an easy way out if we're to even pretend we're a society rather than just a collection of individuals.

I've never had to live in a lockdown. I live in Japan.

My opinion is based on the fact that lockdowns have been proven to be unnecessary and there's no reason to destroy your economy.

You need to read up on what other countries have done. Ireland have failed.

Russman

OMM 0000 wrote: »

But we know that doesn't happen.

I live in a country which didn't do lockdowns (Japan) and everything is fine.

Sweden was even more relaxed and your fantasy didn't happen either.

And are Irish behaviour patterns similar in any way to Japan and Sweden ?

IIRC Sweden has way more ICU capacity than us. We also have to factor that in to our decisions. If we had 2000 ICU beds it might very well be ok to open everything up, but we don't and it isn't.

JDD

I was looking into this before myself. It appears that a lot of the deaths were in nursing homes, or at home, as a result of those elderly patients being unable to survive the invasive treatment they would have got if they were hospitalised or in the ICU. That makes perfect sense to me.

It would be nice to know how many people died from the symptoms brought on by the covid infection, and how many died of other causes but tested positive for covid (either in the hospital or posthumously). I can't hazard a guess of how many deaths that would reduce overall figure to.

This whole "but they would have died in a couple of years anyway" is distasteful at best, and sociopathic at worst. We're all going to die.

I think everyone agrees that it is more tragic for a young person to die than a person of what we might call a "ripe old age". If this pandemic was causing deaths in under 20s, rather than over 80's, we'd be on full lockdown still and there wouldn't be a word of complaint from anyone. But to be openly measuring the value of a year of someone else's life, no matter how old they are, in terms of whether a cafe owner can continue their business is really cold. What value would you put on a year of your own life?

The issue isn't really preventing deaths though. Not really. The issue is preventing hospitalisations and ICU admissions. Deaths are an awful headline, but prevention of them is not the point of lockdowns. The point is actually to protect you or me if we have a car accident or a stroke, are admitted to hospital, and die because the hospital are overwhelmed and there isn't enough staff to treat you, or the staff are so exhausted they negligently treat you. it's overwhelming hospitals we are preventing, not deaths.

Russman

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Ireland have failed.

By what metric exactly ?

MrStuffins

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Because the reaction from the government hasn't been to protect older people and those with underlying conditions. It has been to protect everyone........

Nope. Incorrect! their reaction has been to stop the spread of the virus so those who are vulnerable don't die.

OMM 0000

Russman wrote: »

By what metric exactly ?

Japan. No lockdowns. People still have their jobs. Economy doing ok. Population is 25 times higher than Ireland. Fewer covid deaths.

There has been common sense isolating (voluntary) and mask use. That's it.

You can use Hong Kong as an example too. Same strategy. Around 100 deaths.

We know lockdowns aren't necessary.

OMM 0000

OMM 0000 wrote: »

I've never had to live in a lockdown. I live in Japan.

My opinion is based on the fact that lockdowns have been proven to be unnecessary and there's no reason to destroy your economy.

You need to read up on what other countries have done. Ireland have failed.

We're doing much the same as most EU countries now surely?

OMM 0000

Augeo wrote: »

We're doing much the same as most EU countries now surely?

Yes but that doesn't mean it's a good strategy.

Instead of copying other people's mistakes we should be copying other people's successes.

Copy the Japan and Hong Kong model. Don't destroy your economy and even fewer people will die.

But instead, dumb Ireland is copying the EU and the US and surprise surprise these are some of the worst places affected.

da_miser

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Japan. No lockdowns. People still have their jobs. Economy doing ok. Population is 25 times higher than Ireland. Fewer covid deaths.

There has been common sense isolating (voluntary) and mask use. That's it.

You can use Hong Kong as an example too. Same strategy. Around 100 deaths.

We know lockdowns aren't necessary.

What have the people in these Two places got in common?
They have very few overweight/obese people.
In Ireland we have more than our fair share of overweight/obese people, but in these PC times your not allowed to point out this fact as the reason for a higher death toll.
No fat shaming allowed, its better to let them die than heaven forbid they take offence at being told to loose weight.

circadian

OMM 0000 wrote: »

If you are a healthy adult of working age and you get COVID your risk of death is almost zero.

Why are you and others trying to pretend otherwise?

This idea of thinking everyone is at risk of death is wrong. Just like most people aren't at risk of getting HIV.

You cannot possibly quantify that. Let's not forget the long term effects of having the virus, so far some people who were otherwise young and healthy that are suffering from "long covid" have experienced some of the following;


Blood clots,
COPD,
Chronic Fatigue,
Hair loss,
Heart damage and heartbeat irregularities,
Lung, kidney and brain damage.


These are just short to medium term effects that are being observed. We don't have a looking glass into the future to understand what other effects may come to the fore.


So yes, the chances of death as a result of covid in healthy adults is low, in the short term. However, the chances of long term illnesses or death from them appears to be much higher and could cause huge strains on healthcare systems, the economy and ability of the workforce further down the line.

OMM 0000 wrote: »

But we know that doesn't happen.

I live in a country which didn't do lockdowns (Japan) and everything is fine.

Sweden was even more relaxed and your fantasy didn't happen either.

In Japan measures that needed to be emphasised here are more culturally normal, especially wearing of face masks which helps reduce spread. Having lived in Japan myself, I noticed that hand-shaking, hugging etc were much less prevalent. There is a much greater social cohesion and as a society they are capable of moving in the direction of goals without having to enforce these ideas.


The government requested that people reduced contact with others, that pubs and restaurants suspended their businesses and to follow social distancing guidelines and to adopt risk aversion.


I cannot for a minute believe that the Japanese people went about their business as normal and ignored these requests. The State of Emergency has been lifted but I suspect day-to-day the majority of people in Japan are still exercising these principles, because culturally, I'd expect them to.


Comparing a conformative society like Japan to most western cultures, especially Ireland doesn't work.

Happydays2020

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The official figure we are using for the deaths is currently 1802. According to the HPSC report on 02/09, only 447 cases were admitted to ICU. It is very strange that the number admitted to ICU is only a small fraction of the deaths.

I don't believe the figures are available, but I do believe that a very good percentage of ICU cases recover? Obviously the number that died in ICU is a lot lower than 447. Does anybody have these stats?

So it seems like we have about 1500 - 1600 deaths or so that never went to ICU. So where are these cases coming from?

In the over 65 category, there are 164 that went to ICU and 1658 deaths.
Is it a case that most of these people were just too sick to go to ICU? For example, a lot of the deaths would have been already suffering from terminal cancer, late stages of COPD, heart disease, Diabetes etc.

We also test every single person that dies for Covid. The test itself is quite sensitive. Is it a case that already dead people are testing positive and thus included in the figures?

Of course I know that the government/CMO have admitted to overstating the deaths and including possible/probable in the figures.

Anybody any thoughts or input? Surely anybody with even a remote chance of survival goes to ICU when there is capacity available? And we've always had capacity.

Maybe that is a question that mIchael McNamara should be seeking the answers to at the Oireachtas committee.

Russman

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Japan. No lockdowns. People still have their jobs. Economy doing ok. Population is 25 times higher than Ireland. Fewer covid deaths.

There has been common sense isolating (voluntary) and mask use. That's it.

You can use Hong Kong as an example too. Same strategy. Around 100 deaths.

We know lockdowns aren't necessary.

But that's just the point, Ireland is completely different culturally than those places. It simply wouldn't happen here. Look at how long it took for masks to come into play here, and even then you still had people coming up with all sorts of excuses as to why they shouldn't have to wear one. Half the workers in shops are wearing them down on their chin or those stupid visors propped up on their heads. Our first reaction to anything is "how can I get round that ?"

OMM 0000

OMM 0000 wrote: »

...............

But instead, dumb Ireland is copying the EU and the US and surprise surprise these are some of the worst places affected.

Ah well, time will tell.

I don't think it's as black and white as you say.......... it's not just old folk at risk, a significant proportion of the population have conditions that would make covid19 very serious for them. I don't think Ireland and the EU are as you say, dumb.
Enjoy life in Japan

OMM 0000

da_miser wrote: »

What have the people in these Two places got in common?
They have very few overweight/obese people.
In Ireland we have more than our fair share of overweight/obese people, but in these PC times your not allowed to point out this fact as the reason for a higher death toll.
No fat shaming allowed, its better to let them die than heaven forbid they take offence at being told to loose weight.

Not true.

50% of Hong Kong are obese.

Population is higher than Ireland.

108 covid deaths.

No lockdown.

FintanMcluskey

Deleted User wrote: »

What we need to be looking at is QALY (quality adjusted life years). For you to suggest that just because somebody is in a nursing home/ over some arbitrary age is just a form of ageism.

https://academic.oup.com/heapol/article/21/5/402/578296

No.

What we need to be looking at is that Covid disproportionately affects those who are obese.

Now does your link take into account the life quality of those who are obese, above the age of life expectancy in a nursing home?

OMM 0000

Russman wrote: »

But that's just the point, Ireland is completely different culturally than those places. It simply wouldn't happen here. Look at how long it took for masks to come into play here, and even then you still had people coming up with all sorts of excuses as to why they shouldn't have to wear one. Half the workers in shops are wearing them down on their chin or those stupid visors propped up on their heads. Our first reaction to anything is "how can I get round that ?"

Hong Kong had this problem too, so they made wearing masks a legal requirement.

Even outdoors, you had to wear a mask.

But Ireland as usual can't even get this right. Just force people to wear masks. It's not difficult.

circadian

circadian wrote: »

........


Comparing a conformative society like Japan to most western cultures, especially Ireland doesn't work.

Yes, that'd be a tad dumb IMO.

da_miser

circadian wrote: »

Let's not forget the long term effects of having the virus, so far some people who were otherwise young and healthy that are suffering from "long covid" have experienced some of the following;


Blood clots,
COPD,
Chronic Fatigue,
Hair loss,
Heart damage and heartbeat irregularities,
Lung, kidney and brain damage.

One inconvenient fact to refute these scares, every single famous person who has got Covid19 and announced it as soon as they did has made a full recovery, Novak Djokovic back playing at the highest level, numerous football stars, and American sports stars, plenty of Hollywood stars, not a single one of them has failed to make a full recovery and are back to work.
If they had long term effects we would have heard about it , but not a peep, so the time to panic has passed.

MrStuffins

OMM 0000 wrote: »

But Ireland as usual can't even get this right. Just force people to wear masks. It's not difficult.

You're obviously not on Facebook!

OMM 0000

MrStuffins wrote: »

You're obviously not on Facebook!

Haha I'm not.

Is there mad stuff there about masks?

The sad reality is a lot of people are morons so we need to enforce mask wearing.

circadian

da_miser wrote: »

One inconvenient fact to refute these scares, every single famous person who has got Covid19 and announced it as soon as they did has made a full recovery, Novak Djokovic back playing at the highest level, numerous football stars, and American sports stars, plenty of Hollywood stars, not a single one of them has failed to make a full recovery and are back to work.
If they had long term effects we would have heard about it , but not a peep, so the time to panic has passed.

Oh, great, so a handful of people with access to the best healthcare on the planet (not to mention fast and high quality testing) have so far, largely avoided short to medium term problems associated with Covid-19. EDIT: Include long term in this statement to meet the needs of a pedant.


We're all grand then, sure no reason to not catch it and we should just absolutely ignore scientific data and observations based on what is observed a different sample group that doesn't really share anything in common with us plebs.

Glinda

Friend of mine lived and worked at a very senior level in Japan for a period. He was really struck by their approach to managing a crisis in the big multinational he worked for. When something really bad happened (and this was long before Covid) they would have a crisis meeting where everyone concerned would pour all their energy and expertise into figuring out what to do next. They called this brainstorming.

At home, he said our approach is different. When something really bad happens, we have everyone concerned pouring all their energy and expertise into figuring out who is to blame. His company called this blame-storming, and regarded it as a complete waste of time.

It's very evident that we're exhausting ourselves with blame storming during covid. This isn't helped by the fact that conspiracy theories (designed to divide people and promote discord) thrive in the dark. The disastrous management of information and communication, at a time where the most critical success factor is our ability to pull together, is the greatest failing of all, and that's what's killing people in this second phase.

FintanMcluskey

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No.

What we need to be looking at is that Covid disproportionately affects those who are obese.

Now does your link take into account the life quality of those who are obese, above the age of life expectancy in a nursing home?

QALY does take that into account. The clue is in the name. Obesity is certainly a risk factor fore reduced QALY and also covid if that was what you were trying to suggest.

Russman

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Haha I'm not.

Is there mad stuff there about masks?

The sad reality is a lot of people are morons so we need to enforce mask wearing.

Sure there were bus loads of Dubs down in Cavan at the weekend to attend a march against masks ! Allegedly.

screamer

Glinda wrote: »

Friend of mine lived and worked at a very senior level in Japan for a period. He was really struck by their approach to managing a crisis in the big multinational he worked for. When something really bad happened (and this was long before Covid) they would have a crisis meeting where everyone concerned would pour all their energy and expertise into figuring out what to do next. They called this brainstorming.

At home, he said our approach is different. When something really bad happens, we have everyone concerned pouring all their energy and expertise into figuring out who is to blame. His company called this blame-storming, and regarded it as a complete waste of time.

It's very evident that we're exhausting ourselves with blame storming during covid. This isn't helped by the fact that conspiracy theories (designed to divide people and promote discord) thrive in the dark. The disastrous management of information and communication, at a time where the most critical success factor is our ability to pull together, is the greatest failing of all, and that's what's killing people in this second phase.

There’s no brainstorming to be done, when things are headed for free fall, we all have to arm ourselves with the best masks, Not those washable or disposable things. a good supply of sanitizer and limit our socialisation. Self preservation above all else.

Russman

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Hong Kong had this problem too, so they made wearing masks a legal requirement.

Even outdoors, you had to wear a mask.

But Ireland as usual can't even get this right. Just force people to wear masks. It's not difficult.

Totally agree with the sentiment but wouldn't work here.
Only yesterday I walked to the door of a small shop to collect something, realised I had totally forgotten to put a mask on and told the guy I'd be back in 30 seconds I just need to run back to the car to get a mask (which I did and was happy to), when I got back he said "ahh there was no need to do that".

ranto_boy

circadian wrote: »

You cannot possibly quantify that.

Current CDC estimates - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

For people aged 20-49 (most here I imagine), your chance of surviving corona is 99.9998%.

copeyhagen

circadian wrote: »

Oh, great, so a handful of people with access to the best healthcare on the planet (not to mention fast and high quality testing) have so far, largely avoided short to medium term problems associated with Covid-19.


We're all grand then, sure no reason to not catch it and we should just absolutely ignore scientific data and observations based on what is observed a different sample group that doesn't really share anything in common with us plebs.

ok, so now its not long term, but short to medium, gotcha, just keep moving your goal posts when proven wrong.

Zebra3

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Hong Kong had this problem too, so they made wearing masks a legal requirement.

Even outdoors, you had to wear a mask.

But Ireland as usual can't even get this right. Just force people to wear masks. It's not difficult.

Ireland doesn't have anything like the population density that the central areas of HK would have.

circadian

copeyhagen wrote: »

ok, so now its not long term, but short to medium, gotcha, just keep moving your goal posts when proven wrong.

Feel free to go back and take look now sure.


:rolleyes:

_Brian

Deleted User wrote: »

The official figure we are using for the deaths is currently 1802. According to the HPSC report on 02/09, only 447 cases were admitted to ICU. It is very strange that the number admitted to ICU is only a small fraction of the deaths.

I don't believe the figures are available, but I do believe that a very good percentage of ICU cases recover? Obviously the number that died in ICU is a lot lower than 447. Does anybody have these stats?

So it seems like we have about 1500 - 1600 deaths or so that never went to ICU. So where are these cases coming from?

In the over 65 category, there are 164 that went to ICU and 1658 deaths.
Is it a case that most of these people were just too sick to go to ICU? For example, a lot of the deaths would have been already suffering from terminal cancer, late stages of COPD, heart disease, Diabetes etc.

We also test every single person that dies for Covid. The test itself is quite sensitive. Is it a case that already dead people are testing positive and thus included in the figures?

Of course I know that the government/CMO have admitted to overstating the deaths and including possible/probable in the figures.

Anybody any thoughts or input? Surely anybody with even a remote chance of survival goes to ICU when there is capacity available? And we've always had capacity.

As with the seasonal flu very old people aren’t admitted to icu, many aren’t even admitted to hospital. They are made comfortable and a wait and see approach is taken. Old people don’t do well on ventilators. Mostly their lumgs are already so weak and damaged that they will never ever come off the ventilator.
This has been standard in Ireland for years.

It’s one of the biggest mistakes made in Italy, they put loads of old people on ventilators who should never have gone onto them. They lingered on keeping the ventilators occupied when they were needed for younger sick patients who actually had a chance of surviving. That’s where the story came from about ventilators being taken from older people and given to younger patients

paw patrol

spurious wrote: »

Isolation, regardless of food deliveries has a very detrimental effect on the mental health of many older people.

You can be damn sure if it was under 30s dying of something, the older brigade would do all in their power to protect them.

a load of b0llocks
when the country was on it's knees the old brigade protested to demand the medical card wasn't means tested for the over 70s. They happily lumped the cost on the backs of the younger tax payers to pay off for decades.


The old aren't any more benevolent as the rest of society , plenty of cun1s in that cohort - just like any other grouping. No better no worse.

iamwhoiam

paw patrol wrote: »

a load of b0llocks
when the country was on it's knees the old brigade protested to demand the medical card wasn't means tested for the over 70s. They happily lumped the cost on the backs of the younger tax payers to pay off for decades.


The old aren't any more benevolent as the rest of society , plenty of cun1s in that cohort - just like any other grouping. No better no worse.

The medical card is means tested for ovet 70,s . The GP card is not means tested

douglashyde

Median age of death = 83, Comorbidity very high well over 90%.

Technocrats & civil servants lack imagination and only know blunt force options, they're also swayed easily by the simple story which right now is 'case numbers'.

There needs to be serious pressure from business groups, media commentators, the medical community and most importantly, the public.

CalamariFritti

douglashyde wrote: »

Median age of death = 83, Comorbidity very high well over 90%.

Technocrats & civil servants lack imagination and only know blunt force options, they're also swayed easily by the simple story which right now is 'case numbers'.

There needs to be serious pressure from business groups, media commentators, the medical community and most importantly, the public.

The public will not (yet) support this. They have been hammered with covid fear propaganda 24/7 for 6 months and going. Government, NPHET and media have made a thorough job on that one.

eddie73

douglashyde wrote: »

Median age of death = 83, Comorbidity very high well over 90%.

Technocrats & civil servants lack imagination and only know blunt force options, they're also swayed easily by the simple story which right now is 'case numbers'.

There needs to be serious pressure from business groups, media commentators, the medical community and most importantly, the public.

Yes, that is a good point.

But how would the business groups argue against cases such as New York, Brazil, Mexico etc and Mexico's younger death demography?

The dillema that will be thrown right back at them will be this is what will happen if we do nothing.

JDD

Surely it's not just your GPs decision whether you go to hospital or not? I mean, I think the NH doctor was probably right in his assessment of your mother, but if you had disagreed with him you could have collected your mother and brought her to A&E right? I'm not at all saying that you should have done that, just that it would have been open for you to do so if you had wanted to?

mcsean2163

MOH wrote: »

Every time I see something like that I wonder would people say the same if Covid death rates were highest among, say, those under age 15.

Everytime I see this I wonder what planet people are living on. Someone dying at 15 is tragic as their life is cut short, someone dying at 84 (median age of covid19 death) is a sad outcome but that person has lived their life and hopefully the previous 84 years were fulfilling.

paw patrol

iamwhoiam wrote: »

The medical card is means tested for ovet 70,s . The GP card is not means tested

not in 2008
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30382169.html


the abuse they gave poor john gormley outside the dail.:)

Nermal

ranto_boy wrote: »

Current CDC estimates - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

For people aged 20-49 (most here I imagine), your chance of surviving corona is 99.9998%.

To put this in perspective, if you have a 250KM each-way trip to get the test centre, you're as likely to die in an accident driving to get a test as from the disease you're being tested for.

circadian

copeyhagen wrote: »

ok, so now its not long term, but short to medium, gotcha, just keep moving your goal posts when proven wrong.

So, are you actually prove me wrong or just accuse me of moving the goalposts? At this point it appears that you've added absolutely nothing to the discussion.

_Whimsical_

ranto_boy wrote: »

Current CDC estimates - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

For people aged 20-49 (most here I imagine), your chance of surviving corona is 99.9998%.

You have to bare in mind that a long haul covid syndrome is becoming increasingly common and at present we do not know what the outcome of that will be. James's hospital was featured on the news today and their research so far is that 50% of patients are still reporting disabling symptoms several months after infection, even those who had mild illness. A lot have not been able to return to work. If we were to look at this running rampant though our young society it could have consequences we can't currently anticipate, mass absence of health staff and teaching staff for example as a potential 50% struggle to recover. The stringent restrictions won't last, as we learn more in time and can be confident of a full recovery of the young we will be able to change things accordingly. Right now by stemming the flow we are at least buying some valuable time.

Skyfloater

MOH wrote: »

WTF? Of course I can. People are people, a death is a death.
Somebody in their 80s isn't magically worth less because of their age.

See if your viewpoint changes when you're 83.

Really?
Imagine that you and your 15 year old daughter are visiting your 83 year old mother. You agree to do her shopping for her, but when you come back the house is on fire. You look in the window to see both your mother and daughter unconscious on the floor.
Who do you pull to safety first?

GT89

billybonkers wrote: »

But there is a risk of death if you get it. It affects many people differently.

We're meant to be protecting everybody in this situation with a particular focus on the elderly and vulnerable. I certainly don't want to get it or any of my family to get it.

There is also a risk of getting hit when you cross a busy road.

Everyone would would prefer them or their family not to get sick. I would prefer not to get the flu but I don't go locking myself in my house over it.

Russman

CalamariFritti wrote: »

The public will not (yet) support this. They have been hammered with covid fear propaganda 24/7 for 6 months and going. Government, NPHET and media have made a thorough job on that one.

You really think its a concerted effort ? Why would government, NPHET and the media do this then ?

GT89

Russman wrote: »

You really think its a concerted effort ? Why would government, NPHET and the media do this then ?

I could answer that but would probably be banned

arccosh

a concerted effort for what?

circadian

GT89 wrote: »

There is also a risk of getting hit when you cross a busy road.

Everyone would would prefer them or their family not to get sick. I would prefer not to get the flu but I don't go locking myself in my house over it.

Well, it's not the flu is or crossing the road though, is it?

circadian

GT89 wrote: »

I could answer that but would probably be banned

Why would you be banned??

circadian

CalamariFritti wrote: »

The public will not (yet) support this. They have been hammered with covid fear propaganda 24/7 for 6 months and going. Government, NPHET and media have made a thorough job on that one.

Do you genuinely believe this? Do you realise the sheer scale of people involved if there was some sort of propaganda conspiracy going on? There's no chance that literally everyone involved would keep quiet.