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Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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  • Options
    #9812
    GooglePlus
    Registered Users Posts: 2,010 ✭✭✭GooglePlus


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Fairly big development in the last hour.
    HSE admits that 70-80 cases per day (for 10000 tests) are false positives.
    Christ.
    https://twitter.com/DavQuinn/status/1308493818027741184?s=20

    Probably good reason to keep an eye hospitalisations and ICU admissions primarily over cases. How are they going?

    How do they know false positives are false positives in order to provide that 70-80 figure?


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    #9813
    fritzelly
    Registered Users Posts: 17,263 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Fairly big development in the last hour.
    HSE admits that 70-80 cases per day (for 10000 tests) are false positives.
    Christ.
    https://twitter.com/DavQuinn/status/1308493818027741184?s=20

    That means nearly every day half (and maybe more) of all these positive cases are not positive yet we are killing the economy


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    #9814
    jojofizzio
    Registered Users Posts: 5,914 ✭✭✭jojofizzio


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Fairly big development in the last hour.
    HSE admits that 70-80 cases per day (for 10000 tests) are false positives.
    Christ.
    https://twitter.com/DavQuinn/status/1308493818027741184?s=20

    Ah FFS:rolleyes:


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    #9815
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users Posts: 11,636 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Based on the HSE response just now... we've had approx 600 false positives in the last 7 days..........


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    #9816
    gmisk
    Registered Users Posts: 31,860 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Fairly big development in the last hour.
    HSE admits that 70-80 cases per day (for 10000 tests) are false positives.
    Christ.
    https://twitter.com/DavQuinn/status/1308493818027741184?s=20
    Is it really though?
    Tests can give false negatives as well as false positives.
    David Quinn acting like he has just uncovered a massive story....he really hasn't.


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    #9817
    DangerScouse
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 466 ✭✭DangerScouse


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Based on the HSE response just now... we've had approx 600 false positives in the last 7 days..........

    :rolleyes:


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    #9818
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users Posts: 11,636 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    gmisk wrote: »
    Is it really though?
    Tests can give false negatives as well as false positives.
    We're using such a high PCR cycle I'm fairly certain the chances of false negatives are quite low.


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    #9819
    GooglePlus
    Registered Users Posts: 2,010 ✭✭✭GooglePlus


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Based on the HSE response just now... we've had approx 600 false positives in the last 7 days..........

    You didn't mention the fact that they retest weak positives so this reduces false positives overall and unlikely that they're as high as you say.


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    #9820
    2ndcoming
    Registered Users Posts: 3,569 ✭✭✭2ndcoming


    From the Twitter of the Director of the Iona Institute. Ask me hole.

    Here's a more substantiated explanation for anyone who still prefers their info in more than the out of context clippings of articles from lunatics' twitter pages.

    https://modernsocietyinitiative.org/latest-research/f/rr-why-false-positives-arent-driving-the-rise-in-covid-cases


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    #9821
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users Posts: 11,636 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    DangerScouse wrote: »
    :rolleyes:
    You want the math? Read the HSE response. For every 10,000 there's 70-80.
    We've done 90,000 past 7 days.
    Multiply 70-80 by 7.
    Between 490 and 560.
    Am I wrong?


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    #9822
    gmisk
    Registered Users Posts: 31,860 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    GooglePlus wrote: »
    You didn't mention the fact that they retest weak positives so this reduces false positives overall and unlikely that they're as high as you say.
    Exactly


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    #9823
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users Posts: 12,015 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Widdensushi wrote: »
    Will ye stop, what few dubs haven't been down the last few months will be down

    ;) nah too far far away !


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    #9824
    fritzelly
    Registered Users Posts: 17,263 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    GooglePlus wrote: »
    You didn't mention the fact that they retest weak positives so this reduces false positives overall and unlikely that they're as high as you say.

    Where has it been said they are doing that? Going by the twitter attachment they are not doing it


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    #9825
    GooglePlus
    Registered Users Posts: 2,010 ✭✭✭GooglePlus


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    You want the math? Read the HSE response. For every 10,000 there's 70-80.
    We've done 90,000 past 7 days.
    Multiply 70-80 by 7.
    Between 490 and 560.
    Am I wrong?

    Yes, you're wrong. You didn't read the thing fully. They retest weak positives, so the figure for false positives quoted there is likely lower


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    #9826
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users Posts: 11,636 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    GooglePlus wrote: »
    You didn't mention the fact that they retest weak positives so this reduces false positives overall and unlikely that they're as high as you say.
    It says that it is incredibly difficult to distinguish between weak positives and false positives because the PCR cycle rate of 35-40 is so high. De Gascun spoke about this in his tweets.
    https://twitter.com/CillianDeGascun/status/1305252480213803008?s=20


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    #9827
    growleaves
    Registered Users Posts: 7,719 ✭✭✭growleaves


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Based on the HSE response just now... we've had approx 600 false positives in the last 7 days..........

    What :eek:


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    #9828
    GooglePlus
    Registered Users Posts: 2,010 ✭✭✭GooglePlus


    fritzelly wrote: »
    Where has it been said they are doing that? Going by the twitter attachment they are not doing it

    It's on the photo attached on the tweet, the actual release from the HSE, not the tweet. Click into it.


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    #9829
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users Posts: 11,636 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    GooglePlus wrote: »
    Yes, you're wrong. You didn't read the thing fully. They retest weak positives, so the figure for false positives quoted there is likely lower
    https://twitter.com/CillianDeGascun/status/1305252480213803008?s=20


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    #9830
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    manofwisdom wrote: »
    Can someone tell me what number of cases per 100,00 population does it take for a county to go into Level 3 or down to Level 1?

    Level 1 is fantasy. 2021.


    Level 3 I would say over 100 per 100,000 with a decent percentage of community transmission.


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    #9831
    gmisk
    Registered Users Posts: 31,860 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    We're using such a high PCR cycle I'm fairly certain the chances of false negatives are quite low.
    Is this like you were sure there would be no second wave? And then you said there was always going to be a second wave?


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    #9832
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users Posts: 11,636 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    gmisk wrote: »
    Is this like you were sure there would be no second wave? And then you said there was always going to be a second wave?
    What? I know how PCR works. Read the tweets by De Gascun.


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    #9833
    gmisk
    Registered Users Posts: 31,860 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    growleaves wrote: »


    What :eek:
    Read the full thing....it's BS they regularly retest weak positives.
    There are also likely to be false negatives


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    #9834
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Fairly big development in the last hour.
    HSE admits that 70-80 cases per day (for 10000 tests) are false positives.
    Christ.
    https://twitter.com/DavQuinn/status/1308493818027741184?s=20

    Ivor Cummins will absoloutely love this.


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    #9835
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users Posts: 11,636 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    gmisk wrote: »
    Read the full thing....it's BS they regularly retest weak positives.
    There are also likely to be false negatives
    How are you calling a HSE response BS? Did you not read De Gascuns Twitter thread? They can't distinguish between low load and false positives.


    "A high Ct value (indicating a low virus burden) does not and cannot distinguish between a virus load on the way up (e.g. in a pre-symptomatic individual), a virus load on the way down (e.g. in a recovering individual), a poorly taken specimen, and a false positive result."


  • Options
    #9836
    fritzelly
    Registered Users Posts: 17,263 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    GooglePlus wrote: »
    It's on the photo attached on the tweet, the actual release from the HSE, not the tweet. Click into it.

    No it doesn't

    "it is often not possible to distinguish between true positives and false positives"


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    #9837
    Azatadine
    Registered Users Posts: 3,211 ✭✭✭Azatadine


    Jaysus.....Thomas Ryan got a fair old hauling over the coals there on Prime Time by the Oxford professor......challenged him on every single thing he said. He was often speechless.....


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    #9838
    DangerScouse
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 466 ✭✭DangerScouse


    Azatadine wrote: »
    Jaysus.....Thomas Ryan got a fair old hauling over the coals there on Prime Time by the Oxford professor......challenged him on every single thing he said. He was often speechless.....

    At her stupidity....


  • Options
    #9839
    GooglePlus
    Registered Users Posts: 2,010 ✭✭✭GooglePlus


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    What? I know how PCR works. Read the tweets by De Gascun.

    Fair play but did you read what you shared at all?

    "although these numbers are likely to be reduced when retesting low (weak) positives."

    They say it's not always possible to distinguish the low from high but what I'm saying is, the 70-80 figure is inflated and your figures are too.

    The hospitalisations are proof enough and this is just going to make people complacent. Look across Europe and at home, false positives are a non story if there are plenty of true positives alongside them.


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    #9840
    Arghus
    Registered Users Posts: 14,355 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    polesheep wrote: »
    No, illustrative of how those responsible cannot protect those that are obviously the most vulnerable.

    It can be illustrative of both things.


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    #9841
    lukas8888
    Registered Users Posts: 513 ✭✭✭lukas8888


    Tomas Ryan taken completely taken apart by Oxford professor on prime time.


This discussion has been closed.
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