Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

Beasty

An so endeth version XXII, to make way for XXIII - a thread title so long that we've had to remove all the commas - don't know what I'll do when we get to XXXVIII...

Previous threads:

Thread I
Thread II
Thread III
Thread IV
Thread V
Thread VI
Thread VII
Thread VIII
Thread IX
Thread X
Thread XI
Thread XII
Thread XIII
Thread XIV
Thread XV
Thread XVI
Thread XVII
Thread XVIII
Thread XIX
Thread XX
Thread XXI
Thread XXII

The daily numbers

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1. Please interact in a civil manner
2. Do not tell others what to do, or what to post
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In terms of thread content:

• Treat everything you read here with caution. Anything posted is from an anonymous internet poster. You cannot assume anyone has any "specialist" knowledge whatever they claim
• Statistics are important to some (and I personally pay a lot of attention to them), but they are of very little use to anyone who is already caught up in this, or indeed knows of people who are caught up
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• Cut out any cover-up/conspiracy stuff. If you have a reliable source quote it (not just their words but provide a link to a reliable source) - otherwise your claims carry little if any weight. If you wish to discuss conspiracy theories we have a dedicated forum for that and it’s not this one
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And now a maths lesson:
“Average” is a non-defined term. “Mean” and “Median” are both mathematically defined terms.
Mean = the sum of a series of numbers divided by the number of items in the series
Hence the Mean of 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 7, 8 = (1+2+3+3+4+7+8)/7 = 4
Median is the midpoint number. In the above example it’s the 4th number in the sequence of 7 numbers – in this case 3
Both numbers are examples of “averages”. Not every average is the “Mean”, not every average is the “Median”, but every “Mean” and every “Median” number is an average

All threadbans carry over, but we will reconsider if anyone wishes to discuss it further via PM

Currently threadbanned:
Shuhada Davitt
Man vs Manure
Clarence Boddiker
IAMAMORON
completedit
Cw85
ThewhiteJesus
Snowbiee21
HowardBeale
Level 42
Burty330
JoeFritzl
Midfield Major
paleoperson
declanflynn
Naggdefy
Sober Crappy Chemis
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rovers_runner
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The Unbearables
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Erranged
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buzzerxx

Beasty

And so onto Covid-19's anthem:

I'm a bitch I'm a bitch
Oh the bitch is back
Stone cold sober as a matter of fact
I can bitch I can bitch
'Cause I'm better than you
It's the way that I move
The things that I do
Oh-oh-oh....

ACitizenErased

And another one

moonage

Away With The Fairies says a prayer before having some soup.

Polar101

I hope the last orders in thread XXII included a substantial meal, otherwise the relevant authorities might need to be notified and the thread might lose its license.

smellyoldboot

Polar101 wrote: »

I hope the last orders in thread XXII included a substantial meal, otherwise the relevant authorities might need to be notified and the thread might lose its license.

Please see above post. Substantial meal, outdoor area and social distancing all catered for. He's even half wearing a mask.

Atlantic Dawn

For anyone who got Covid can you see who gave it to you and how or is it a mystery?

Renjit

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

For anyone who got Covid can you see who gave it to you and how or is it a mystery?

It's a mystery

Dressoutlet

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

For anyone who got Covid can you see who gave it to you and how or is it a mystery?

It depends on the situation. I'm a close contact awaiting testing, I know where it came from because the person contacted me immediately, contact tracing took 24 hours to contact me. This is a big concern of mine. That's a whole day I could have been out spreading covid without knowing. And goes to show people need to be honest with each other, there is no shame in catching a respiratory infection that's passed by breathing essentially

CalamariFritti

That's a whole day I could have been out spreading covid without knowing.

I admire your genuine concern but surely you were doing social distancing, mask in shops etc. rather than going around hugging and sneezing at people. People need to calm down a bit and begin to see things a little more on a macro level.

caveat emptor

Interesting study into community study in US.

https://twitter.com/linseymarr/status/1304104615730991106?s=20

copeyhagen

Dressoutlet wrote: »

It depends on the situation. I'm a close contact awaiting testing, I know where it came from because the person contacted me immediately, contact tracing took 24 hours to contact me. This is a big concern of mine. That's a whole day I could have been out spreading covid without knowing. And goes to show people need to be honest with each other, there is no shame in catching a respiratory infection that's passed by breathing essentially

3 year old tested this week, someone he was in close contact with tested positive on Sunday.
he was tested on Wednesday,ffs, 3 days later. we were told we didnt need to do anything as we werent close contact.. makes no sense. his test was negative but as per HSE, hes still not allowed go to creche. such a load of bollox

Seamai

Renjit wrote: »

It's a mystery

I hope you're not mocking Toyah 😄

Funsterdelux

copeyhagen wrote: »

3 year old tested this week, someone he was in close contact with tested positive on Sunday.
he was tested on Wednesday,ffs, 3 days later. we were told we didnt need to do anything as we werent close contact.. makes no sense. his test was negative but as per HSE, hes still not allowed go to creche. such a load of bollox

#confussted

How could he be tested if he wasnt a close contact?

is_that_so

Dressoutlet wrote: »

It depends on the situation. I'm a close contact awaiting testing, I know where it came from because the person contacted me immediately, contact tracing took 24 hours to contact me. This is a big concern of mine. That's a whole day I could have been out spreading covid without knowing. And goes to show people need to be honest with each other, there is no shame in catching a respiratory infection that's passed by breathing essentially

No shame when they do but it's whether it's following the recommendations. It should be faster but if each person who contracts it is ignoring the limits and having many multiples of contacts beyond that, it is going to slow it all down.

That shaming and sense of shame is now a very big problem IMO. A UK survey has negative attitudes towards perceived regulation breakers at about the 70% we are at on those contracting it.

raind

caveat emptor wrote: »

Interesting study into community study in US.

https://twitter.com/linseymarr/status/1304104615730991106?s=20

Groundbreaking stuff - being in contact with confirmed cases or increased use of facilities where people gather increases risk of contacting covid. Who would have thought.

Based on the interval bars, there is no statistical difference in the rate in restaurants, bars , gyms or religious settings, and there is even overlap on the CI's for Public transport and shopping, although there does appear to be a practical difference

Plumbthedepths

raind wrote: »

Groundbreaking stuff - being in contact with confirmed cases or increased use of facilities where people gather increases risk of contacting covid. Who would have thought.

Based on the interval bars, there is no statistical difference in the rate in restaurants, bars , gyms or religious settings, and there is even overlap on the CI's for Public transport and shopping, although there does appear to be a practical difference

Well it could explain US numbers if they are only learning this now. Better late than never I suppose.

Not in Kansas

Testing capacity must be stretched to the limit right now. All of a sudden I know nearly a dozen people that have been tested in the last few days or are being tested today. Kids getting sick within a week of returning to school is normal, and most will test negative but it must be a giant headache for GPs and all.

I do, unfortunately, know of a 19 month old who has tested positive (through close contact with an at-that-time asymptomatic adult) and is sick. Hopefully those symptoms stay mild.

Funsterdelux

Not in Kansas wrote: »

Testing capacity must be stretched to the limit right now. All of a sudden I know nearly a dozen people that have been tested in the last few days or are being tested today. Kids getting sick within a week of returning to school is normal, and most will test negative but it must be a giant headache for GPs and all.

I do, unfortunately, know of a 19 month old who has tested positive (through close contact with an at-that-time asymptomatic adult) and is sick. Hopefully those symptoms stay mild.

They'll end up bringing back more criteria for testing in the community if they dont increase capacity.

drunkmonkey

All the resources were put into other areas like the meat plants, seems to be a bit of a 0 sum game testing asymptomatic, out of 365 workers tested 2 weeks ago they found 3 asymptomatic cases in a factory close to me.

copeyhagen

Funsterdelux wrote: »

#confussted

How could he be tested if he wasnt a close contact?

he was tested, as he was a close contact, but his parents (me) arent considered close contact unless he had tested positive...3 days after the person he was in close contact with tested positive. if my kid had it, he would presumably have spread it to the rest of the household.

also, the person that tested positive hadnt spread it to a single person,despite having kids around them constantly..

maybe its not as easy to catch as people think? or for kids even?

is_that_so

drunkmonkey wrote: »

All the resources were put into other areas like the meat plants, seems to be a bit of a 0 sum game testing asymptomatic, out of 365 workers tested 2 weeks ago they found 3 asymptomatic cases in a factory close to me.

Given it's seen as such a high risk location it's still a sensible strategy especially when you factor in living conditions. As LOK-down showed it can escalate quite quickly.

is_that_so

Funsterdelux wrote: »

They'll end up bringing back more criteria for testing in the community if they dont increase capacity.

They shouldn't have to if this is short-lived. There may be bottlenecks in the testing system now but it's a lot better than it was 6 months ago. The constant warnings about contacts suggests that this is where they want and need to target.

raind

copeyhagen wrote: »

he was tested, as he was a close contact, but his parents (me) arent considered close contact unless he had tested positive...3 days after the person he was in close contact with tested positive. if my kid had it, he would presumably have spread it to the rest of the household.

also, the person that tested positive hadnt spread it to a single person,despite having kids around them constantly..

maybe its not as easy to catch as people think? or for kids even?

Someone is not infectious immediately on exposure to the virus. Latest data is that it takes on average 7 days to show symptoms, and you may be shedding virus up to 3 days prior to becoming symptomatic, and most infectious in the 2 days prior and 3 days after first symptoms. So in the first 3 days the child would be very unlikely to be infectious. Data also indicates that viral loads in asymptomatic carriers are similar to those in symptomatic carriers and over a similar time-frame.

I assume you have been advised to keep the child home from creche for 14 days?

Gods Gift

What’s the median age of the threadbanned posters?

raind

drunkmonkey wrote: »

All the resources were put into other areas like the meat plants, seems to be a bit of a 0 sum game testing asymptomatic, out of 365 workers tested 2 weeks ago they found 3 asymptomatic cases in a factory close to me.

3 symptomatic I presume?

Funsterdelux

copeyhagen wrote: »

he was tested, as he was a close contact, but his parents (me) arent considered close contact unless he had tested positive...3 days after the person he was in close contact with tested positive. if my kid had it, he would presumably have spread it to the rest of the household.

also, the person that tested positive hadnt spread it to a single person,despite having kids around them constantly..

maybe its not as easy to catch as people think? or for kids even?

Ah I get you.

They have to draw the line somewhere, you are a close contact of a close contact, if he tested positive then you become a close contact and get tested.

Everybody is different in their spreading potential. Best thing to do is just be careful yourselves and limit your interactions.

My OH is awaiting a test result from yesterday morning. So we have to keep our 2 kids at home and we're isolating till it hopefully comes back negative. Then they came go back to school but OH has to wait 48hrs after symptoms(cough) have gone before she can go back to work(school)

Edit: Test came back negative, result back within 24hrs (priority worker)

Funsterdelux

Gods Gift wrote: »

What’s the median age of the threadbanned posters?

You'll have to wait till next tuesdays Beasty Briefing

caveat emptor

raind wrote: »

Groundbreaking stuff - being in contact with confirmed cases or increased use of facilities where people gather increases risk of contacting covid. Who would have thought.

Based on the interval bars, there is no statistical difference in the rate in restaurants, bars , gyms or religious settings, and there is even overlap on the CI's for Public transport and shopping, although there does appear to be a practical difference

It's not been done before so it is groundbreaking. The distributions are not that normal which is interesting. They are quite long tailed. Did you read the paper. It's more evidence of the airborne transmission being a serious issue.

With all due respect I think you need to have a look at how airborne pathogens work. Based on the below comment I don't think it's clear to you. Measles is primarily airborne and has a much larger Ro number. i.e it is far more contagious than most diseases due to the airborne nature. It might be wise to have a read of stuff before you sh!t on a centre for disease control paper. Your confidence doesn't match your understanding.

raind wrote: »

There is no doubt airborne transmission occurs. There is also no doubt the vast vast majority or transmission is not airborne. If we were only dealing with airborne transmissions it would be a much simpler outbreak as the r number would be far lower, and there would be fewer serious cases as it is also proven initial viral load is a major factor in how serious the case

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/measles/facts/factsheet

Measles is extremely communicable and it is estimated that 90% of non-immune people exposed to an infective individual will contract the disease. Mathematical models estimate the basic reproductive number at 12–18; that is the average number of secondary infections that follow a single introduction into a susceptible population.

lolokeogh

copeyhagen wrote: »

he was tested, as he was a close contact, but his parents (me) arent considered close contact unless he had tested positive...3 days after the person he was in close contact with tested positive. if my kid had it, he would presumably have spread it to the rest of the household.

also, the person that tested positive hadnt spread it to a single person,despite having kids around them constantly..

maybe its not as easy to catch as people think? or for kids even?

5 of us here have it,just had the worse night ever..but out of all our contact tracing not one person came back positive,and i even had my nephew stay with me for a whole day,the kid was hanging out of me,and nothing he was fine.but its down to luck realy,on the other hand we have not had anyone in house,all wore masks,all were good at washing hands etc etc etc yet we all ended up and still are up **** creek.

Funsterdelux

lolokeogh wrote: »

5 of us here have it,just had the worse night ever..but out of all our contact tracing not one person came back positive,and i even had my nephew stay with me for a whole day,the kid was hanging out of me,and nothing he was fine.but its down to luck realy,on the other hand we have not had anyone in house,all wore masks,all were good at washing hands etc etc etc yet we all ended up and still are up **** creek.

May I be so bold as to ask where ye got it from?