Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

Beasty

An so endeth version XXII, to make way for XXIII - a thread title so long that we've had to remove all the commas - don't know what I'll do when we get to XXXVIII...

Previous threads:

Thread I
Thread II
Thread III
Thread IV
Thread V
Thread VI
Thread VII
Thread VIII
Thread IX
Thread X
Thread XI
Thread XII
Thread XIII
Thread XIV
Thread XV
Thread XVI
Thread XVII
Thread XVIII
Thread XIX
Thread XX
Thread XXI
Thread XXII

The daily numbers

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1. Please interact in a civil manner
2. Do not tell others what to do, or what to post
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In terms of thread content:

• Treat everything you read here with caution. Anything posted is from an anonymous internet poster. You cannot assume anyone has any "specialist" knowledge whatever they claim
• Statistics are important to some (and I personally pay a lot of attention to them), but they are of very little use to anyone who is already caught up in this, or indeed knows of people who are caught up
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And now a maths lesson:
“Average” is a non-defined term. “Mean” and “Median” are both mathematically defined terms.
Mean = the sum of a series of numbers divided by the number of items in the series
Hence the Mean of 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 7, 8 = (1+2+3+3+4+7+8)/7 = 4
Median is the midpoint number. In the above example it’s the 4th number in the sequence of 7 numbers – in this case 3
Both numbers are examples of “averages”. Not every average is the “Mean”, not every average is the “Median”, but every “Mean” and every “Median” number is an average

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Beasty

And so onto Covid-19's anthem:

I'm a bitch I'm a bitch
Oh the bitch is back
Stone cold sober as a matter of fact
I can bitch I can bitch
'Cause I'm better than you
It's the way that I move
The things that I do
Oh-oh-oh....

ACitizenErased

And another one

moonage

Away With The Fairies says a prayer before having some soup.

Polar101

I hope the last orders in thread XXII included a substantial meal, otherwise the relevant authorities might need to be notified and the thread might lose its license.

smellyoldboot

Polar101 wrote: »

I hope the last orders in thread XXII included a substantial meal, otherwise the relevant authorities might need to be notified and the thread might lose its license.

Please see above post. Substantial meal, outdoor area and social distancing all catered for. He's even half wearing a mask.

Atlantic Dawn

For anyone who got Covid can you see who gave it to you and how or is it a mystery?

Renjit

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

For anyone who got Covid can you see who gave it to you and how or is it a mystery?

It's a mystery

Dressoutlet

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

For anyone who got Covid can you see who gave it to you and how or is it a mystery?

It depends on the situation. I'm a close contact awaiting testing, I know where it came from because the person contacted me immediately, contact tracing took 24 hours to contact me. This is a big concern of mine. That's a whole day I could have been out spreading covid without knowing. And goes to show people need to be honest with each other, there is no shame in catching a respiratory infection that's passed by breathing essentially

CalamariFritti

That's a whole day I could have been out spreading covid without knowing.

I admire your genuine concern but surely you were doing social distancing, mask in shops etc. rather than going around hugging and sneezing at people. People need to calm down a bit and begin to see things a little more on a macro level.

caveat emptor

Interesting study into community study in US.

https://twitter.com/linseymarr/status/1304104615730991106?s=20

copeyhagen

Dressoutlet wrote: »

It depends on the situation. I'm a close contact awaiting testing, I know where it came from because the person contacted me immediately, contact tracing took 24 hours to contact me. This is a big concern of mine. That's a whole day I could have been out spreading covid without knowing. And goes to show people need to be honest with each other, there is no shame in catching a respiratory infection that's passed by breathing essentially

3 year old tested this week, someone he was in close contact with tested positive on Sunday.
he was tested on Wednesday,ffs, 3 days later. we were told we didnt need to do anything as we werent close contact.. makes no sense. his test was negative but as per HSE, hes still not allowed go to creche. such a load of bollox

Seamai

Renjit wrote: »

It's a mystery

I hope you're not mocking Toyah 😄

Funsterdelux

copeyhagen wrote: »

3 year old tested this week, someone he was in close contact with tested positive on Sunday.
he was tested on Wednesday,ffs, 3 days later. we were told we didnt need to do anything as we werent close contact.. makes no sense. his test was negative but as per HSE, hes still not allowed go to creche. such a load of bollox

#confussted

How could he be tested if he wasnt a close contact?

is_that_so

Dressoutlet wrote: »

It depends on the situation. I'm a close contact awaiting testing, I know where it came from because the person contacted me immediately, contact tracing took 24 hours to contact me. This is a big concern of mine. That's a whole day I could have been out spreading covid without knowing. And goes to show people need to be honest with each other, there is no shame in catching a respiratory infection that's passed by breathing essentially

No shame when they do but it's whether it's following the recommendations. It should be faster but if each person who contracts it is ignoring the limits and having many multiples of contacts beyond that, it is going to slow it all down.

That shaming and sense of shame is now a very big problem IMO. A UK survey has negative attitudes towards perceived regulation breakers at about the 70% we are at on those contracting it.

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

Interesting study into community study in US.

https://twitter.com/linseymarr/status/1304104615730991106?s=20

Groundbreaking stuff - being in contact with confirmed cases or increased use of facilities where people gather increases risk of contacting covid. Who would have thought.

Based on the interval bars, there is no statistical difference in the rate in restaurants, bars , gyms or religious settings, and there is even overlap on the CI's for Public transport and shopping, although there does appear to be a practical difference

Plumbthedepths

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Groundbreaking stuff - being in contact with confirmed cases or increased use of facilities where people gather increases risk of contacting covid. Who would have thought.

Based on the interval bars, there is no statistical difference in the rate in restaurants, bars , gyms or religious settings, and there is even overlap on the CI's for Public transport and shopping, although there does appear to be a practical difference

Well it could explain US numbers if they are only learning this now. Better late than never I suppose.

Not in Kansas

Testing capacity must be stretched to the limit right now. All of a sudden I know nearly a dozen people that have been tested in the last few days or are being tested today. Kids getting sick within a week of returning to school is normal, and most will test negative but it must be a giant headache for GPs and all.

I do, unfortunately, know of a 19 month old who has tested positive (through close contact with an at-that-time asymptomatic adult) and is sick. Hopefully those symptoms stay mild.

Funsterdelux

Not in Kansas wrote: »

Testing capacity must be stretched to the limit right now. All of a sudden I know nearly a dozen people that have been tested in the last few days or are being tested today. Kids getting sick within a week of returning to school is normal, and most will test negative but it must be a giant headache for GPs and all.

I do, unfortunately, know of a 19 month old who has tested positive (through close contact with an at-that-time asymptomatic adult) and is sick. Hopefully those symptoms stay mild.

They'll end up bringing back more criteria for testing in the community if they dont increase capacity.

drunkmonkey

All the resources were put into other areas like the meat plants, seems to be a bit of a 0 sum game testing asymptomatic, out of 365 workers tested 2 weeks ago they found 3 asymptomatic cases in a factory close to me.

copeyhagen

Funsterdelux wrote: »

#confussted

How could he be tested if he wasnt a close contact?

he was tested, as he was a close contact, but his parents (me) arent considered close contact unless he had tested positive...3 days after the person he was in close contact with tested positive. if my kid had it, he would presumably have spread it to the rest of the household.

also, the person that tested positive hadnt spread it to a single person,despite having kids around them constantly..

maybe its not as easy to catch as people think? or for kids even?

is_that_so

drunkmonkey wrote: »

All the resources were put into other areas like the meat plants, seems to be a bit of a 0 sum game testing asymptomatic, out of 365 workers tested 2 weeks ago they found 3 asymptomatic cases in a factory close to me.

Given it's seen as such a high risk location it's still a sensible strategy especially when you factor in living conditions. As LOK-down showed it can escalate quite quickly.

is_that_so

Funsterdelux wrote: »

They'll end up bringing back more criteria for testing in the community if they dont increase capacity.

They shouldn't have to if this is short-lived. There may be bottlenecks in the testing system now but it's a lot better than it was 6 months ago. The constant warnings about contacts suggests that this is where they want and need to target.

copeyhagen

copeyhagen wrote: »

he was tested, as he was a close contact, but his parents (me) arent considered close contact unless he had tested positive...3 days after the person he was in close contact with tested positive. if my kid had it, he would presumably have spread it to the rest of the household.

also, the person that tested positive hadnt spread it to a single person,despite having kids around them constantly..

maybe its not as easy to catch as people think? or for kids even?

Someone is not infectious immediately on exposure to the virus. Latest data is that it takes on average 7 days to show symptoms, and you may be shedding virus up to 3 days prior to becoming symptomatic, and most infectious in the 2 days prior and 3 days after first symptoms. So in the first 3 days the child would be very unlikely to be infectious. Data also indicates that viral loads in asymptomatic carriers are similar to those in symptomatic carriers and over a similar time-frame.

I assume you have been advised to keep the child home from creche for 14 days?

Gods Gift

What’s the median age of the threadbanned posters?

drunkmonkey

drunkmonkey wrote: »

All the resources were put into other areas like the meat plants, seems to be a bit of a 0 sum game testing asymptomatic, out of 365 workers tested 2 weeks ago they found 3 asymptomatic cases in a factory close to me.

3 symptomatic I presume?

Funsterdelux

copeyhagen wrote: »

he was tested, as he was a close contact, but his parents (me) arent considered close contact unless he had tested positive...3 days after the person he was in close contact with tested positive. if my kid had it, he would presumably have spread it to the rest of the household.

also, the person that tested positive hadnt spread it to a single person,despite having kids around them constantly..

maybe its not as easy to catch as people think? or for kids even?

Ah I get you.

They have to draw the line somewhere, you are a close contact of a close contact, if he tested positive then you become a close contact and get tested.

Everybody is different in their spreading potential. Best thing to do is just be careful yourselves and limit your interactions.

My OH is awaiting a test result from yesterday morning. So we have to keep our 2 kids at home and we're isolating till it hopefully comes back negative. Then they came go back to school but OH has to wait 48hrs after symptoms(cough) have gone before she can go back to work(school)

Edit: Test came back negative, result back within 24hrs (priority worker)

Funsterdelux

Gods Gift wrote: »

What’s the median age of the threadbanned posters?

You'll have to wait till next tuesdays Beasty Briefing

caveat emptor

Deleted User wrote: »

Groundbreaking stuff - being in contact with confirmed cases or increased use of facilities where people gather increases risk of contacting covid. Who would have thought.

Based on the interval bars, there is no statistical difference in the rate in restaurants, bars , gyms or religious settings, and there is even overlap on the CI's for Public transport and shopping, although there does appear to be a practical difference

It's not been done before so it is groundbreaking. The distributions are not that normal which is interesting. They are quite long tailed. Did you read the paper. It's more evidence of the airborne transmission being a serious issue.

With all due respect I think you need to have a look at how airborne pathogens work. Based on the below comment I don't think it's clear to you. Measles is primarily airborne and has a much larger Ro number. i.e it is far more contagious than most diseases due to the airborne nature. It might be wise to have a read of stuff before you sh!t on a centre for disease control paper. Your confidence doesn't match your understanding.

Deleted User wrote: »

There is no doubt airborne transmission occurs. There is also no doubt the vast vast majority or transmission is not airborne. If we were only dealing with airborne transmissions it would be a much simpler outbreak as the r number would be far lower, and there would be fewer serious cases as it is also proven initial viral load is a major factor in how serious the case

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/measles/facts/factsheet

Measles is extremely communicable and it is estimated that 90% of non-immune people exposed to an infective individual will contract the disease. Mathematical models estimate the basic reproductive number at 12–18; that is the average number of secondary infections that follow a single introduction into a susceptible population.

lolokeogh

copeyhagen wrote: »

he was tested, as he was a close contact, but his parents (me) arent considered close contact unless he had tested positive...3 days after the person he was in close contact with tested positive. if my kid had it, he would presumably have spread it to the rest of the household.

also, the person that tested positive hadnt spread it to a single person,despite having kids around them constantly..

maybe its not as easy to catch as people think? or for kids even?

5 of us here have it,just had the worse night ever..but out of all our contact tracing not one person came back positive,and i even had my nephew stay with me for a whole day,the kid was hanging out of me,and nothing he was fine.but its down to luck realy,on the other hand we have not had anyone in house,all wore masks,all were good at washing hands etc etc etc yet we all ended up and still are up **** creek.

Funsterdelux

lolokeogh wrote: »

5 of us here have it,just had the worse night ever..but out of all our contact tracing not one person came back positive,and i even had my nephew stay with me for a whole day,the kid was hanging out of me,and nothing he was fine.but its down to luck realy,on the other hand we have not had anyone in house,all wore masks,all were good at washing hands etc etc etc yet we all ended up and still are up **** creek.

May I be so bold as to ask where ye got it from?

drunkmonkey

Deleted User wrote: »

3 symptomatic I presume?

No asymptomatic the didn't even know they had it.

lolokeogh

Funsterdelux wrote: »

May I be so bold as to ask where ye got it from?

Not a clue? you could guess here for a year,but the whole house got one serious wallop,im ok today(day 16) just have a feeling of grit in me eyes,but the kids are getting a serious wallop.but i would have no idea how it got in to the house

Boggles

copeyhagen wrote: »

also, the person that tested positive hadnt spread it to a single person

How do you know they didn't?

What you mean is the very limited amount of contacts he has had have not tested positive yet, if he/she only tested positive on Sunday, their contacts will have to get tested again next week assuming they were tested this week.

It may also be possible that one of his close contacts gave it to him in the past 2 weeks and no longer has the virus, unless they have traced him/her to infected contact, have they?

Sierra 117

When they say that mordbidly obese people are four times more likely to get severe symptoms and/or die from Covid, what does that mean exactly in terms of actual risk?

Does it mean most morbidly obese people are going to get the severe symptoms and possibly die, or will most MO people be fine overall?

lolokeogh

Boggles wrote: »

How do you know they didn't?

What you mean is the very limited amount of contacts he has had have not tested positive yet, if he/she only tested positive on Sunday, their contacts will have to get tested again next week assuming they were tested this week.

It may also be possible that one of his close contacts gave it to him in the past 2 weeks and no longer has the virus, unless they have traced him/her to infected contact, have they?

Someone who is a contact trace is only tested once?

wadacrack

Sierra 117 wrote: »

When they say that mordbidly obese people are four times more likely to get severe symptoms and/or die from Covid, what does that mean exactly in terms of actual risk?

Does it mean most morbidly obese people are going to get the severe symptoms and possibly die, or will most MO people be fine overall?

It means you are four times more likely to die from Covid due to being overweight

copeyhagen

Boggles wrote: »

How do you know they didn't?

What you mean is the very limited amount of contacts he has had have not tested positive yet, if he/she only tested positive on Sunday, their contacts will have to get tested again next week assuming they were tested this week.

It may also be possible that one of his close contacts gave it to him in the past 2 weeks and no longer has the virus, unless they have traced him/her to infected contact, have they?

good point, the people from the location it happened allt ested negative (18/19 people) so no idea about their eprsonal life tests etc!

and yeah, we were told a single test.

Boggles

lolokeogh wrote: »

Someone who is a contact trace is only tested once?

You will be referred for two tests if you are a close contact, once straight away, and a second approximately 7 days after your contact with the person with COVID-19. You will not be referred for the second test if it occurs within 24 hours of the first test, or if your first test detects COVID-19. Even if
you receive a negative test result, you will need to continue to restrict your movements.

.

Boggles

copeyhagen wrote: »

and yeah, we were told a single test.

Really?

Must have changed it so.

lolokeogh

Boggles wrote: »

.

No they do not get you back,i know this for fact..i know many people who were tested through contact tracing and was once.

lolokeogh

Boggles wrote: »

Really?

Must have changed it so.

unless its a new rule,on which i will know the next few days,but was not mentioned to anyone who was tested from my contact list?

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

It's not been done before so it is groundbreaking. The distributions are not that normal which is interesting. They are quite long tailed. Did you read the paper. It's more evidence of the airborne transmission being a serious issue.

With all due respect I think you need to have a look at how airborne pathogens work. Based on the below comment I don't think it's clear to you. Measles is primarily airborne and has a much larger Ro number. i.e it is far more contagious than most diseases due to the airborne nature. It might be wise to have a read of stuff before you sh!t on a centre for disease control paper. Your confidence doesn't match your understanding.



https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/measles/facts/factsheet

Not a single mention of airbourne transmission in the piece. It also concludes restaurants are the most likely source yet anyone with an even cursory understanding of statistical hypothesis testing can see that there is no statistical difference between the various activities in a public setting. Its interesting how they have chosen to report hypothesis testing used to determine difference between control and those who visited bars and restaurants, however not between each individual settings. This would of course have had a high p-value as this is no difference.
It is right that they have not done so however as they do acknowledge there are severe limitations in the study

The findings in this report are subject to at least five limitations. First, the sample included 314 symptomatic patients who actively sought testing during July 1–29, 2020 at 11 health care facilities. Symptomatic adults with negative SARS-CoV-2 test results might have been infected with other respiratory viruses and had similar exposures to persons with cases of such illnesses. Persons who did not respond, or refused to participate, could be systematically different from those who were interviewed for this investigation. Efforts to age- and sex-match participating case-patients and control-participants were not maintained because of participants not meeting the eligibility criteria, refusing to participate, or not responding, and this was accounted for in the analytic approach. Second, unmeasured confounding is possible, such that reported behaviours might represent factors, including concurrently participating in activities where possible exposures could have taken place, that were not included in the analysis or measured in the survey. Of note, the question assessing dining at a restaurant did not distinguish between indoor and outdoor options. In addition, the question about going to a bar or coffee shop did not distinguish between the venues or service delivery methods, which might represent different exposures. Third, adults in the study were from one of 11 participating health care facilities and might not be representative of the United States population. Fourth, participants were aware of their SARS-CoV-2 test results, which could have influenced their responses to questions about community exposures and close contacts. Finally, case or control status might be subject to misclassification because of imperfect sensitivity or specificity of PCR-based testing

Also, the interval bars are not distributions, they are confidence intervals. Meaning the true value of the "adjusted odds ratio", whatever that means, could be any where on that line.

I am also flattered that you will save links to posts of mine from weeks ago to fling back at me when it suits. I am trying to remember the context in which a posted the above, and cant be bothered trawling through my post history to find it, but believe I may have been relating the fact that as most transmission is through droplets, the airbourne portion would only represent a small proposition of transmissions. If airbourne transmission was a much of a component of spread as you would like us to believe, we would be looking at an R0 of the order of that of measles, but we are not, as airbourne events are rare compared to face to face droplet transmsiion

Boggles

lolokeogh wrote: »

No they do not get you back,i know this for fact..i know many people who were tested through contact tracing and was once.

Last update August 31st.

https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/close-contact-and-casual-contact.html

Second tests for close contacts

You will get a second test even if your first test is negative. This is because it can take up to 14 days for the virus to show up in your system after you have been exposed to it.

Padraig Mor

Sierra 117 wrote: »

When they say that mordbidly obese people are four times more likely to get severe symptoms and/or die from Covid, what does that mean exactly in terms of actual risk?

Does it mean most morbidly obese people are going to get the severe symptoms and possibly die, or will most MO people be fine overall?

It's possibly a more complicated relationship than first appears. While the morbidly obese are more likely to have severe symptoms / die, they are also of course more likely to have pre-existing co-morbidities in the first place. Not sure if it's been established yet whether the latter is the cause of greater severity, or just simply 'fatness' (although the end result is the same anyway).

podgeandrodge

lolokeogh wrote: »

Not a clue? you could guess here for a year,but the whole house got one serious wallop,im ok today(day 16) just have a feeling of grit in me eyes,but the kids are getting a serious wallop.but i would have no idea how it got in to the house

Jaypers, I thought I had the beginnings of a sore throat last night (though gone this morning) and had a feeling of grit in one eye for last 2 days :eek: Is that a symptom? No fever though. Not reading any more of your posts

lolokeogh

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Jaypers, I thought I had the beginnings of a sore throat last night (though gone this morning) and had a feeling of grit in one eye for last 2 days :eek: Is that a symptom? No fever though. Not reading any more of your posts

for me it went something as follows
26th day 1 sweats and colds
day 2 same with sore throat
day 3 cold/sore throat and i looked green,i was dreadful looking
day 4 in bed in a heap,tripping out
day 5 can not remember??same as day 4 but i ate a chinese that evening
then from day 6 i had the feeling of a real bad cold,but on and off,one hour great,next hour bed,also had the grit in the eyes when i woke up some mornings,and it just goes instant,had the feeling like i had sunburn on arms and shoulders,sore feet,then 2 nights ago extreme and i mean extreme sweats in bed with no high temp,all these symtoms were on and off every day,you could wake up brand new,then come lunch time wrecked,5 off us have it here,all same symtoms,high temp not an issue,but was up until 530 this morning with 13 year old trying to breath,both her and 25 year old daughter in hospital yesterday,but blood oxegen ok so home yous go.and well here we are today,i have a feeling like im inhaling dust,as for the rest of the family?we will see as day goes on,also my appetite went off the scale for a few days,and also i must hightlight after day 5 my sense of smell and taste vanished,nothing.still not back

podgeandrodge

So, we moved from extremely low community transmission to reasonably significant community transmission.

What happened between say, late July I think, and now to cause this upping in numbers/2nd wave whatever?

It doesn't seem to me that there is anything radically different about the amount of social distancing taking place. Schools are back sure, but not for long enough to explain. Pubs/restaurants no change there yet. House parties, well always stories about them, but nothing particularly new.

So what do people think is the main cause of the upswing?

(Ok, people started wearing masks everywhere and started fidgeting with them after touching multiple surfaces, and gave up proper hand washing as the masks made them feel invincible, but what else? :pac: )

mandrake04

podgeandrodge wrote: »

So, we moved from extremely low community transmission to reasonably significant community transmission.

What happened between say, late July I think, and now to cause this upping in numbers/2nd wave whatever?

It doesn't seem to me that there is anything radically different about the amount of social distancing taking place. Schools are back sure, but not for long enough to explain. Pubs/restaurants no change there yet. House parties, well always stories about them, but nothing particularly new.

So what do people think is the main cause of the upswing?

Same as back in February, people travelling and bringing the virus back...simple.

TonyMaloney

lolokeogh wrote: »

for me it went something as follows
26th day 1 sweats and colds
day 2 same with sore throat
day 3 cold/sore throat and i looked green,i was dreadful looking
day 4 in bed in a heap,tripping out
day 5 can not remember??same as day 4 but i ate a chinese that evening
then from day 6 i had the feeling of a real bad cold,but on and off,one hour great,next hour bed,also had the grit in the eyes when i woke up some mornings,and it just goes instant,had the feeling like i had sunburn on arms and shoulders,sore feet,then 2 nights ago extreme and i mean extreme sweats in bed with no high temp,all these symtoms were on and off every day,you could wake up brand new,then come lunch time wrecked,5 off us have it here,all same symtoms,high temp not an issue,but was up until 530 this morning with 13 year old trying to breath,both her and 25 year old daughter in hospital yesterday,but blood oxegen ok so home yous go.and well here we are today,i have a feeling like im inhaling dust,as for the rest of the family?we will see as day goes on,also my appetite went off the scale for a few days,and also i must hightlight after day 5 my sense of smell and taste vanished,nothing.still not back

Nasty.

Must be terrible being so worried for your kids while you yourself are in an awful state.
I hope you get some relief soon.

is_that_so

mandrake04 wrote: »

Same as back in February, people travelling and bringing the virus back...simple.

A whole lot more mixing, family and other social events plus contacts at very high level.