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Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

  • 10-09-2020 9:56pm
    #1
    Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 62,196 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭ Beasty


    An so endeth version XXII, to make way for XXIII - a thread title so long that we've had to remove all the commas - don't know what I'll do when we get to XXXVIII...

    Previous threads:

    Thread I
    Thread II
    Thread III
    Thread IV
    Thread V
    Thread VI
    Thread VII
    Thread VIII
    Thread IX
    Thread X
    Thread XI
    Thread XII
    Thread XIII
    Thread XIV
    Thread XV
    Thread XVI
    Thread XVII
    Thread XVIII
    Thread XIX
    Thread XX
    Thread XXI
    Thread XXII

    The daily numbers

    Mod warnings:
    1. Please interact in a civil manner
    2. Do not tell others what to do, or what to post
    3. It is against site rules to seek or offer any medical advice. Please do not post here about your symptoms asking what to do. Contact your doctor by telephone and they can advise you as appropriate
    4. If you have a problem with a post report it and leave the modding to the mods

    In terms of thread content:
    • Treat everything you read here with caution. Anything posted is from an anonymous internet poster. You cannot assume anyone has any "specialist" knowledge whatever they claim
    • Statistics are important to some (and I personally pay a lot of attention to them), but they are of very little use to anyone who is already caught up in this, or indeed knows of people who are caught up
    • Whatever your own views are please recognise others are entitled to different views., Even if at different extremes please do not try and repeatedly ram your views down the throats of those who have differing views
    • Cut out any cover-up/conspiracy stuff. If you have a reliable source quote it (not just their words but provide a link to a reliable source) - otherwise your claims carry little if any weight. If you wish to discuss conspiracy theories we have a dedicated forum for that and it’s not this one
    • If the likes of the HSE have a verified Twitter account we can assume what they post is accurate. Randomers on here or elsewhere cannot be considered "official" or "reliable" sources
    • If people wish to flout the restriction rules that is up to them. They cannot complain at the consequences, be that direct action from the authorities, exposure in Social Media (not here) or being shunned by locals, friends, family etc. If they post about it here, or encourage others to flout the rules, trying to appear macho, or thinking they are above the rules or simply being a smart arse, posting privileges will be removed
    • If you don't want to see discussion about Trump perhaps stay clear of this thread between the hours of 22:00 and 01:00. This is a thread for "breaking news" so please do not expect posters to discuss things happening "now" in other threads. It's not discouraged but equally posters expect to discuss such issues in this thread (added 14/04/20)
    And now a maths lesson:
    “Average” is a non-defined term. “Mean” and “Median” are both mathematically defined terms.
    Mean = the sum of a series of numbers divided by the number of items in the series
    Hence the Mean of 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 7, 8 = (1+2+3+3+4+7+8)/7 = 4
    Median is the midpoint number. In the above example it’s the 4th number in the sequence of 7 numbers – in this case 3
    Both numbers are examples of “averages”. Not every average is the “Mean”, not every average is the “Median”, but every “Mean” and every “Median” number is an average

    All threadbans carry over, but we will reconsider if anyone wishes to discuss it further via PM

    Currently threadbanned:
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«134567335

Comments

  • Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 62,196 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭ Beasty


    And so onto Covid-19's anthem:

    I'm a bitch I'm a bitch
    Oh the bitch is back
    Stone cold sober as a matter of fact
    I can bitch I can bitch
    'Cause I'm better than you
    It's the way that I move
    The things that I do
    Oh-oh-oh....


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,535 ✭✭✭✭ ACitizenErased


    And another one


  • Registered Users Posts: 648 ✭✭✭ moonage


    Away With The Fairies says a prayer before having some soup.

    hqdefault.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,209 ✭✭✭ Polar101


    I hope the last orders in thread XXII included a substantial meal, otherwise the relevant authorities might need to be notified and the thread might lose its license.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,075 ✭✭✭ smellyoldboot


    Polar101 wrote: »
    I hope the last orders in thread XXII included a substantial meal, otherwise the relevant authorities might need to be notified and the thread might lose its license.

    Please see above post. Substantial meal, outdoor area and social distancing all catered for. He's even half wearing a mask.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 71,902 ✭✭✭✭ Atlantic Dawn


    For anyone who got Covid can you see who gave it to you and how or is it a mystery?


  • Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭ Renjit


    For anyone who got Covid can you see who gave it to you and how or is it a mystery?

    It's a mystery :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 309 ✭✭ Dressoutlet


    For anyone who got Covid can you see who gave it to you and how or is it a mystery?

    It depends on the situation. I'm a close contact awaiting testing, I know where it came from because the person contacted me immediately, contact tracing took 24 hours to contact me. This is a big concern of mine. That's a whole day I could have been out spreading covid without knowing. And goes to show people need to be honest with each other, there is no shame in catching a respiratory infection that's passed by breathing essentially


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,706 ✭✭✭ CalamariFritti


    That's a whole day I could have been out spreading covid without knowing.

    I admire your genuine concern but surely you were doing social distancing, mask in shops etc. rather than going around hugging and sneezing at people. People need to calm down a bit and begin to see things a little more on a macro level.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭ caveat emptor


    Interesting study into community study in US.

    https://twitter.com/linseymarr/status/1304104615730991106?s=20


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,520 ✭✭✭ copeyhagen


    It depends on the situation. I'm a close contact awaiting testing, I know where it came from because the person contacted me immediately, contact tracing took 24 hours to contact me. This is a big concern of mine. That's a whole day I could have been out spreading covid without knowing. And goes to show people need to be honest with each other, there is no shame in catching a respiratory infection that's passed by breathing essentially

    3 year old tested this week, someone he was in close contact with tested positive on Sunday.
    he was tested on Wednesday,ffs, 3 days later. we were told we didnt need to do anything as we werent close contact.. makes no sense. his test was negative but as per HSE, hes still not allowed go to creche. such a load of bollox


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,250 ✭✭✭ Seamai


    Renjit wrote: »
    It's a mystery :D

    I hope you're not mocking Toyah 😄


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭ Funsterdelux


    copeyhagen wrote: »
    3 year old tested this week, someone he was in close contact with tested positive on Sunday.
    he was tested on Wednesday,ffs, 3 days later. we were told we didnt need to do anything as we werent close contact.. makes no sense. his test was negative but as per HSE, hes still not allowed go to creche. such a load of bollox

    #confussted

    How could he be tested if he wasnt a close contact?


  • Registered Users Posts: 31,581 ✭✭✭✭ is_that_so


    It depends on the situation. I'm a close contact awaiting testing, I know where it came from because the person contacted me immediately, contact tracing took 24 hours to contact me. This is a big concern of mine. That's a whole day I could have been out spreading covid without knowing. And goes to show people need to be honest with each other, there is no shame in catching a respiratory infection that's passed by breathing essentially
    No shame when they do but it's whether it's following the recommendations. It should be faster but if each person who contracts it is ignoring the limits and having many multiples of contacts beyond that, it is going to slow it all down.

    That shaming and sense of shame is now a very big problem IMO. A UK survey has negative attitudes towards perceived regulation breakers at about the 70% we are at on those contracting it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,788 ✭✭✭ raind


    Interesting study into community study in US.

    https://twitter.com/linseymarr/status/1304104615730991106?s=20

    Groundbreaking stuff - being in contact with confirmed cases or increased use of facilities where people gather increases risk of contacting covid. Who would have thought.

    Based on the interval bars, there is no statistical difference in the rate in restaurants, bars , gyms or religious settings, and there is even overlap on the CI's for Public transport and shopping, although there does appear to be a practical difference


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ Plumbthedepths


    raind wrote: »
    Groundbreaking stuff - being in contact with confirmed cases or increased use of facilities where people gather increases risk of contacting covid. Who would have thought.

    Based on the interval bars, there is no statistical difference in the rate in restaurants, bars , gyms or religious settings, and there is even overlap on the CI's for Public transport and shopping, although there does appear to be a practical difference

    Well it could explain US numbers if they are only learning this now. Better late than never I suppose.


  • Registered Users Posts: 274 ✭✭ Not in Kansas


    Testing capacity must be stretched to the limit right now. All of a sudden I know nearly a dozen people that have been tested in the last few days or are being tested today. Kids getting sick within a week of returning to school is normal, and most will test negative but it must be a giant headache for GPs and all.

    I do, unfortunately, know of a 19 month old who has tested positive (through close contact with an at-that-time asymptomatic adult) and is sick. Hopefully those symptoms stay mild.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭ Funsterdelux


    Testing capacity must be stretched to the limit right now. All of a sudden I know nearly a dozen people that have been tested in the last few days or are being tested today. Kids getting sick within a week of returning to school is normal, and most will test negative but it must be a giant headache for GPs and all.

    I do, unfortunately, know of a 19 month old who has tested positive (through close contact with an at-that-time asymptomatic adult) and is sick. Hopefully those symptoms stay mild.

    They'll end up bringing back more criteria for testing in the community if they dont increase capacity.


  • Registered Users Posts: 27,467 ✭✭✭✭ drunkmonkey


    All the resources were put into other areas like the meat plants, seems to be a bit of a 0 sum game testing asymptomatic, out of 365 workers tested 2 weeks ago they found 3 asymptomatic cases in a factory close to me.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,520 ✭✭✭ copeyhagen


    #confussted

    How could he be tested if he wasnt a close contact?

    he was tested, as he was a close contact, but his parents (me) arent considered close contact unless he had tested positive...3 days after the person he was in close contact with tested positive. if my kid had it, he would presumably have spread it to the rest of the household.

    also, the person that tested positive hadnt spread it to a single person,despite having kids around them constantly..

    maybe its not as easy to catch as people think? or for kids even?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 31,581 ✭✭✭✭ is_that_so


    All the resources were put into other areas like the meat plants, seems to be a bit of a 0 sum game testing asymptomatic, out of 365 workers tested 2 weeks ago they found 3 asymptomatic cases in a factory close to me.
    Given it's seen as such a high risk location it's still a sensible strategy especially when you factor in living conditions. As LOK-down showed it can escalate quite quickly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 31,581 ✭✭✭✭ is_that_so


    They'll end up bringing back more criteria for testing in the community if they dont increase capacity.
    They shouldn't have to if this is short-lived. There may be bottlenecks in the testing system now but it's a lot better than it was 6 months ago. The constant warnings about contacts suggests that this is where they want and need to target.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,788 ✭✭✭ raind


    copeyhagen wrote: »
    he was tested, as he was a close contact, but his parents (me) arent considered close contact unless he had tested positive...3 days after the person he was in close contact with tested positive. if my kid had it, he would presumably have spread it to the rest of the household.

    also, the person that tested positive hadnt spread it to a single person,despite having kids around them constantly..

    maybe its not as easy to catch as people think? or for kids even?

    Someone is not infectious immediately on exposure to the virus. Latest data is that it takes on average 7 days to show symptoms, and you may be shedding virus up to 3 days prior to becoming symptomatic, and most infectious in the 2 days prior and 3 days after first symptoms. So in the first 3 days the child would be very unlikely to be infectious. Data also indicates that viral loads in asymptomatic carriers are similar to those in symptomatic carriers and over a similar time-frame.

    I assume you have been advised to keep the child home from creche for 14 days?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,713 Gods Gift


    What’s the median age of the threadbanned posters?


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,788 ✭✭✭ raind


    All the resources were put into other areas like the meat plants, seems to be a bit of a 0 sum game testing asymptomatic, out of 365 workers tested 2 weeks ago they found 3 asymptomatic cases in a factory close to me.

    3 symptomatic I presume?


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭ Funsterdelux


    copeyhagen wrote: »
    he was tested, as he was a close contact, but his parents (me) arent considered close contact unless he had tested positive...3 days after the person he was in close contact with tested positive. if my kid had it, he would presumably have spread it to the rest of the household.

    also, the person that tested positive hadnt spread it to a single person,despite having kids around them constantly..

    maybe its not as easy to catch as people think? or for kids even?

    Ah I get you.

    They have to draw the line somewhere, you are a close contact of a close contact, if he tested positive then you become a close contact and get tested.

    Everybody is different in their spreading potential. Best thing to do is just be careful yourselves and limit your interactions.

    My OH is awaiting a test result from yesterday morning. So we have to keep our 2 kids at home and we're isolating till it hopefully comes back negative. Then they came go back to school but OH has to wait 48hrs after symptoms(cough) have gone before she can go back to work(school)

    Edit: Test came back negative, result back within 24hrs (priority worker)


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭ Funsterdelux


    Gods Gift wrote: »
    What’s the median age of the threadbanned posters?

    You'll have to wait till next tuesdays Beasty Briefing


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭ caveat emptor


    raind wrote: »
    Groundbreaking stuff - being in contact with confirmed cases or increased use of facilities where people gather increases risk of contacting covid. Who would have thought.

    Based on the interval bars, there is no statistical difference in the rate in restaurants, bars , gyms or religious settings, and there is even overlap on the CI's for Public transport and shopping, although there does appear to be a practical difference

    It's not been done before so it is groundbreaking. The distributions are not that normal which is interesting. They are quite long tailed. Did you read the paper. It's more evidence of the airborne transmission being a serious issue.

    With all due respect I think you need to have a look at how airborne pathogens work. Based on the below comment I don't think it's clear to you. Measles is primarily airborne and has a much larger Ro number. i.e it is far more contagious than most diseases due to the airborne nature. It might be wise to have a read of stuff before you sh!t on a centre for disease control paper. Your confidence doesn't match your understanding.
    raind wrote: »
    There is no doubt airborne transmission occurs. There is also no doubt the vast vast majority or transmission is not airborne. If we were only dealing with airborne transmissions it would be a much simpler outbreak as the r number would be far lower, and there would be fewer serious cases as it is also proven initial viral load is a major factor in how serious the case

    https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/measles/facts/factsheet

    Measles is extremely communicable and it is estimated that 90% of non-immune people exposed to an infective individual will contract the disease. Mathematical models estimate the basic reproductive number at 12–18; that is the average number of secondary infections that follow a single introduction into a susceptible population.


  • Registered Users Posts: 316 ✭✭ lolokeogh


    copeyhagen wrote: »
    he was tested, as he was a close contact, but his parents (me) arent considered close contact unless he had tested positive...3 days after the person he was in close contact with tested positive. if my kid had it, he would presumably have spread it to the rest of the household.

    also, the person that tested positive hadnt spread it to a single person,despite having kids around them constantly..

    maybe its not as easy to catch as people think? or for kids even?

    5 of us here have it,just had the worse night ever..but out of all our contact tracing not one person came back positive,and i even had my nephew stay with me for a whole day,the kid was hanging out of me,and nothing he was fine.but its down to luck realy,on the other hand we have not had anyone in house,all wore masks,all were good at washing hands etc etc etc yet we all ended up and still are up **** creek.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭ Funsterdelux


    lolokeogh wrote: »
    5 of us here have it,just had the worse night ever..but out of all our contact tracing not one person came back positive,and i even had my nephew stay with me for a whole day,the kid was hanging out of me,and nothing he was fine.but its down to luck realy,on the other hand we have not had anyone in house,all wore masks,all were good at washing hands etc etc etc yet we all ended up and still are up **** creek.

    May I be so bold as to ask where ye got it from?


This discussion has been closed.
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