Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

amadangomor · 22-09-2020 07:41PM

marno21 wrote: »

If you left Mitchelstown you’d be in Northern Ireland before you’d be at the opposite side of the county.

Just to prove how big Cork is

Good point but have to factor in how good the motorway system is and how ****e some of our normal roads are.

Happydays2020 · 22-09-2020 07:45PM

billybonkers wrote: »

Just got to level 3 already for the above average counties. Get it over and done with

You have made a good point. There are no metrics associated with the different levels. What is the target for Dublin to be back to level 2, or indeed what level would indicate it reaching level 4? There is plenty of stuck but not much in terms of a carrot.

And can we do all this with having 40 super spreaders sitting in a room together for 6 hours A day 5 days a week, and then going home to their families every evening and weekends.

Spleodar · 22-09-2020 07:47PM

BringBackMick wrote: »

Rates in Cork beginning to look quite scary now. 34 cases today...

If you adjusted that to compare to Dublin...it would be like having 200+ cases a day in Dublin or more. WOW

Pop Cork: 542,868
Pop Dublin: 1,347,359

So there’s 2.482 times the population of Cork in Dublin.

So it would work out at 84 cases per scaled up to Dublin pop, which is giving Cork a similar level of cases as Dublin was having over the last few days.

We need to start publishing cases in per 100,000 figures as I’m finding, as is always the case in Ireland, we tend to see counties as identically comparable blocks.

I mean the counties go from 1.3m to 0.55 million and then you’re down 0.25 million for Galway and everything smaller than that is less than 200,000

11 of the 26 are less than 100,000, with Longford and Leitrim at less than 50,000.

Leitrim isn’t much bigger than a Dublin or Cork suburb.

The other issue I would like to see ironed out is urban cases per 100,000.

It’s hard to get a sense of what’s happening in Cork City for example if we are rolling in case loads from rural areas and meat processing outbreaks and so on.

ACitizenErased · 22-09-2020 07:48PM

Spleodar wrote: »

Pop Cork: 542,868
Pop Dublin: 1,347,359

So there’s 2.482 times the population of Cork in Dublin.

So it would work out at 209 cases per scaled up to Dublin pop, which is giving Cork a similar level of cases as Dublin was having over the last few days.

We need to start publishing cases in per 100,000 figures as I’m finding, as is always the case in Ireland, we tend to see counties as identically comparable blocks.

I mean the counties go from 1.3m to 0.55 million and then you’re down 0.25 million for Galway and everything smaller than that is less than 200,000

11 of the 26 are less than 100,000, with Longford and Leitrim at less than 50,000.

Leitrim isn’t much bigger than a Dublin or Cork suburb.

The other issue I would like to see ironed out is urban cases per 100,000.

It’s hard to get a sense of what’s happening in Cork City for example if we are rolling in case loads from rural areas and meat processing outbreaks and so on.

I think you're after making a b*lls of that calculation.
34 * 2.482 = 84..

Gradius · 22-09-2020 08:08PM

There are many secrets the government doesn't want you to know.

For instance, you are immune to the virus if you breathe backwards.

Funsterdelux · 22-09-2020 08:16PM

Gradius wrote: »

There are many secrets the government doesn't want you to know.

For instance, you are immune to the virus if you breathe backwards.

Hows does that work?

In through the mouth out through the nose?

GooglePlus · 22-09-2020 08:19PM

Gradius wrote: »

There are many secrets the government doesn't want you to know.

For instance, you are immune to the virus if you breathe backwards.

I heard that anyone who has died from Covid had a pre-existing condition called lungs. Open your eyes sheeple.

Gradius · 22-09-2020 08:19PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Hows does that work?

In through the mouth out through the nose?

Easy. Take a deep breath and let it out. Well it's just like that but in reverse.

Goldrickssan · 22-09-2020 08:23PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Hows does that work?

In through the mouth out through the nose?

In through the arse out through the ears

22-09-2020 08:23PM

https://mobile.twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1308475255841841156

Gradius · 22-09-2020 08:28PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1308475255841841156

Seriously, people need to watch that film called "Contagion".

Theres a character played by Jude law that is a social media personality, and he's a charlatan spreading disinformation and doubt in order to become wealthy, making things much worse for everyone else in the process.

It's actually quite bizarre seeing fiction come to life.

TonyMaloney · 22-09-2020 08:30PM

Deleted User wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1308475255841841156

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1308475255841841156?s=20

beneath the tweet there's an icon that looks like an arrow pointing out of a box. click that and then "Copy link to tweet". Then just paste.

ACitizenErased · 22-09-2020 08:30PM

Gradius wrote: »

Seriously, people need to watch that film called "Contagion".

Theres a character played by Jude law that is a social media personality, and he's a charlatan spreading disinformation and doubt in order to become wealthy, making things much worse for everyone else in the process.

It's actually quite bizarre seeing fiction come to life.

Watched it back in March. Insane how alike to now it is.

Spleodar · 22-09-2020 08:32PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I think you're after making a b*lls of that calculation.
34 * 2.482 = 84..

My phone rang mid calculation so you'll just have to excuse it - edited.

Gradius · 22-09-2020 08:34PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Watched it back in March. Insane how alike to now it is.

It's fairly accurate for a good reason, the cast and crew met with disease experts for consultation here in Europe.

DangerScouse · 22-09-2020 08:37PM

Cases now headed to a very bad place in the UK. Going to be a very bleak few months there as things fall apart. I think we are roughly 15-20 days behind them in Dublin with the rest of the country another 10 days back. We still have a window to act but it is closing, fast.

manofwisdom · 22-09-2020 08:38PM

Can someone tell me what number of cases per 100,00 population does it take for a county to go into Level 3 or down to Level 1?

normanoffside · 22-09-2020 08:40PM

manofwisdom wrote: »

Can someone tell me what number of cases per 100,00 population does it take for a county to go into Level 3 or down to Level 1?

It's a secret

Jim_Hodge · 22-09-2020 08:41PM

manofwisdom wrote: »

Can someone tell me what number of cases per 100,00 population does it take for a county to go into Level 3 or down to Level 1?

It's based on more factors than a simple case count per 100k

Spleodar · 22-09-2020 08:41PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I think you're after making a b*lls of that calculation.
34 * 2.482 = 84..

It's something I'm actually getting a bit concerned about. I'm making an absolute bollox of minor calculations and really simple errors way too frequently.
I couldn't remember my phone number yesterday at all.

Widdensushi · 22-09-2020 08:46PM

DangerScouse wrote: »

Cases now headed to a very bad place in the UK. Going to be a very bleak few months there as things fall apart. I think we are roughly 15-20 days behind them in Dublin with the rest of the country another 10 days back. We still have a window to act but it is closing, fast.

You have a lovely way of building the tension, I hope you are a novelist or similar for a living.

ACitizenErased · 22-09-2020 08:47PM

DangerScouse wrote: »

Cases now headed to a very bad place in the UK. Going to be a very bleak few months there as things fall apart. I think we are roughly 15-20 days behind them in Dublin with the rest of the country another 10 days back. We still have a window to act but it is closing, fast.

Can you provide the modelling for your conclusions?

petes · 22-09-2020 08:51PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Can you provide the modelling for your conclusions?

It's such a complex algorithm they couldn't possibly divulge!

niallo27 · 22-09-2020 08:56PM

DangerScouse wrote: »

Cases now headed to a very bad place in the UK. Going to be a very bleak few months there as things fall apart. I think we are roughly 15-20 days behind them in Dublin with the rest of the country another 10 days back. We still have a window to act but it is closing, fast.

Oh **** me, its like the 2 weeks behind Italy stuff from February. Have you anything remotely positive to say.

Renjit · 22-09-2020 08:56PM

DangerScouse wrote: »

Cases now headed to a very bad place in the UK. Going to be a very bleak few months there as things fall apart. I think we are roughly 15-20 days behind them in Dublin with the rest of the country another 10 days back. We still have a window to act but it is closing, fast.

Let the kids and adults have some fun. Show must go on :pac:

Spleodar · 22-09-2020 08:58PM

manofwisdom wrote: »

Can someone tell me what number of cases per 100,00 population does it take for a county to go into Level 3 or down to Level 1?

They’re factoring in the R0 number, which gives you a sense of how fast it’s likely to spread, things like ICU capacity, hospital capacity etc etc etc

There isn’t a simple calculation. It’s more of a risk assessment.

Gradius · 22-09-2020 09:00PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

You have a lovely way of building the tension, I hope you are a novelist or similar for a living.

He's right about the window of opportunity.

If this thing is still on rinse/repeat with lockdowns come January, I think it's fair to say public confidence in guidelines will be severely eroded.

Then you will have no path to victory, as now, AND an uncooperative population.

GeorgeBailey · 22-09-2020 09:07PM

manofwisdom wrote: »

Can someone tell me what number of cases per 100,00 population does it take for a county to go into Level 3 or down to Level 1?

Level 1 is incredibly unlikely before winter is over. Most optimistic bet would be that if a vaccine starts being rolled out and is seen as being effective that they'd move us to level 1 then and then after some time passes give the all clear and be done with levels altogether.

Widdensushi · 22-09-2020 09:12PM

Gradius wrote: »

He's right about the window of opportunity.

If this thing is still on rinse/repeat with lockdowns come January, I think it's fair to say public confidence in guidelines will be severely eroded.

Then you will have no path to victory, as now, AND an uncooperative population.

There won't be a lockdown, UK just announced a lockdown, the pubs have to close at 10 pm, there may be measures, shut the pubs, as for worrying about the people becoming uncooperative, that ship has sailed.

caveat emptor · 22-09-2020 09:13PM

Fairly serious in the UK with the penalties and restrictions there and them being told it’ll likely last 6 months. Hopefully our 3 week one will sort it out. Also interesting to see him say that cocooning is a load of crap as it’ll get to old people anyway and overrun the system of measures not in place.

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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