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Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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    #9782
    manofwisdom
    Registered Users Posts: 1,066 ✭✭✭manofwisdom


    Can someone tell me what number of cases per 100,00 population does it take for a county to go into Level 3 or down to Level 1?


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    #9783
    normanoffside
    Registered Users Posts: 9,935 ✭✭✭normanoffside


    manofwisdom wrote: »
    Can someone tell me what number of cases per 100,00 population does it take for a county to go into Level 3 or down to Level 1?

    It's a secret


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    #9784
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users Posts: 10,485 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    manofwisdom wrote: »
    Can someone tell me what number of cases per 100,00 population does it take for a county to go into Level 3 or down to Level 1?

    It's based on more factors than a simple case count per 100k


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    #9785
    Spleodar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 72 ✭✭Spleodar


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    I think you're after making a b*lls of that calculation.
    34 * 2.482 = 84..

    It's something I'm actually getting a bit concerned about. I'm making an absolute bollox of minor calculations and really simple errors way too frequently.
    I couldn't remember my phone number yesterday at all.


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    #9786
    Widdensushi
    Registered Users Posts: 5,166 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    DangerScouse wrote: »
    Cases now headed to a very bad place in the UK. Going to be a very bleak few months there as things fall apart. I think we are roughly 15-20 days behind them in Dublin with the rest of the country another 10 days back. We still have a window to act but it is closing, fast.

    You have a lovely way of building the tension, I hope you are a novelist or similar for a living.


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    #9787
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users Posts: 11,636 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    DangerScouse wrote: »
    Cases now headed to a very bad place in the UK. Going to be a very bleak few months there as things fall apart. I think we are roughly 15-20 days behind them in Dublin with the rest of the country another 10 days back. We still have a window to act but it is closing, fast.
    Can you provide the modelling for your conclusions?


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    #9788
    petes
    Registered Users Posts: 8,382 ✭✭✭petes


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Can you provide the modelling for your conclusions?

    It's such a complex algorithm they couldn't possibly divulge!


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    #9789
    niallo27
    Registered Users Posts: 16,010 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    DangerScouse wrote: »
    Cases now headed to a very bad place in the UK. Going to be a very bleak few months there as things fall apart. I think we are roughly 15-20 days behind them in Dublin with the rest of the country another 10 days back. We still have a window to act but it is closing, fast.

    Oh **** me, its like the 2 weeks behind Italy stuff from February. Have you anything remotely positive to say.


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    #9790
    Renjit
    Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Renjit


    DangerScouse wrote: »
    Cases now headed to a very bad place in the UK. Going to be a very bleak few months there as things fall apart. I think we are roughly 15-20 days behind them in Dublin with the rest of the country another 10 days back. We still have a window to act but it is closing, fast.

    Let the kids and adults have some fun. Show must go on :pac:


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    #9791
    Spleodar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 72 ✭✭Spleodar


    manofwisdom wrote: »
    Can someone tell me what number of cases per 100,00 population does it take for a county to go into Level 3 or down to Level 1?

    They’re factoring in the R0 number, which gives you a sense of how fast it’s likely to spread, things like ICU capacity, hospital capacity etc etc etc

    There isn’t a simple calculation. It’s more of a risk assessment.


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    #9792
    Gradius
    Registered Users Posts: 1,224 ✭✭✭Gradius


    Widdensushi wrote: »
    You have a lovely way of building the tension, I hope you are a novelist or similar for a living.

    He's right about the window of opportunity.

    If this thing is still on rinse/repeat with lockdowns come January, I think it's fair to say public confidence in guidelines will be severely eroded.

    Then you will have no path to victory, as now, AND an uncooperative population.


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    #9793
    GeorgeBailey
    Registered Users Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭GeorgeBailey


    manofwisdom wrote: »
    Can someone tell me what number of cases per 100,00 population does it take for a county to go into Level 3 or down to Level 1?

    Level 1 is incredibly unlikely before winter is over. Most optimistic bet would be that if a vaccine starts being rolled out and is seen as being effective that they'd move us to level 1 then and then after some time passes give the all clear and be done with levels altogether.


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    #9794
    Widdensushi
    Registered Users Posts: 5,166 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    Gradius wrote: »
    He's right about the window of opportunity.

    If this thing is still on rinse/repeat with lockdowns come January, I think it's fair to say public confidence in guidelines will be severely eroded.

    Then you will have no path to victory, as now, AND an uncooperative population.

    There won't be a lockdown, UK just announced a lockdown, the pubs have to close at 10 pm, there may be measures, shut the pubs, as for worrying about the people becoming uncooperative, that ship has sailed.


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    #9795
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Fairly serious in the UK with the penalties and restrictions there and them being told it’ll likely last 6 months. Hopefully our 3 week one will sort it out. Also interesting to see him say that cocooning is a load of crap as it’ll get to old people anyway and overrun the system of measures not in place.



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    #9796
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Fairly serious in the UK with the penalties and restrictions there and them being told it’ll likely last 6 months. Hopefully our 3 week one will sort it out. Also interesting to see him say that cocooning is a load of crap as it’ll get to old people anyway and overrun the system of measures not in place.


    As much domestic politics as anything else....


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    #9797
    firemansam4
    Registered Users Posts: 1,690 ✭✭✭firemansam4


    Gradius wrote:
    It's actually quite bizarre seeing fiction come to life.

    ACitizenErased wrote:
    Watched it back in March. Insane how alike to now it is.


    I watched it earlier in the year as well, while a lot of stuff had a lot of similarities. The main big difference was that the fatality rate of the disease in that film was something like 30% and not 0.05% or what ever the true rate is now.


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    #9798
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users Posts: 11,636 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Very interesting thread. Some believe that since June, our testing methods have changed, and a higher amount of false positive tests are being returned.
    https://twitter.com/kilkelly/status/1307052803957960704?s=20


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    #9799
    polesheep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,950 ✭✭✭polesheep


    Looks like it's back in the nursing homes. Issue this time is staff moving between facilities. No doubt they'll blame the people in Oliver Bond and call for a lockdown.


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    #9800
    landofthetree
    Registered Users Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    polesheep wrote: »
    Looks like it's back in the nursing homes. Issue this time is staff moving between facilities. No doubt they'll blame the people in Oliver Bond and call for a lockdown.

    But that's literally how it gets into nursing homes.


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    #9801
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    GeorgeBailey wrote: »
    Level 1 is incredibly unlikely before winter is over. Most optimistic bet would be that if a vaccine starts being rolled out and is seen as being effective that they'd move us to level 1 then and then after some time passes give the all clear and be done with levels altogether.

    When we get nearing that stage I reckon there will be some political "fun" going on. When a critical number (practically all vulnerable vaccinated and remainder vaccine program just commenced) we will be at that level, and then there'll be some hiccup or blunder about availability of further vaccines, with what would then be seen as an unnecessary continuation with any restrictions.


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    #9802
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    landofthetree wrote: »
    But that's literally how it gets into nursing homes.

    Which is it, staff moving between facilities or people having a Rave (applying a very loose definition of Rave).


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    #9803
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users Posts: 12,095 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    amadangomor wrote: »
    Good point but have to factor in how good the motorway system is and how ****e some of our normal roads are.

    Yes roads up here to Belfast are great . That journey from Mitchellstown to Castletownbere is tougher going .


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    #9804
    Jinglejangle69
    Registered Users Posts: 7,246 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    polesheep wrote: »
    Looks like it's back in the nursing homes. Issue this time is staff moving between facilities. No doubt they'll blame the people in Oliver Bond and call for a lockdown.

    Or Tony Hoolahan.


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    #9805
    Arghus
    Registered Users Posts: 14,364 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    polesheep wrote: »
    Looks like it's back in the nursing homes. Issue this time is staff moving between facilities. No doubt they'll blame the people in Oliver Bond and call for a lockdown.

    Illustrative again of how "just isolate the vulnerable" is easier said than done.


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    #9806
    Widdensushi
    Registered Users Posts: 5,166 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Yes roads up here to Belfast are great . That journey from Mitchellstown to Castletownbere is tougher going .

    Will ye stop, what few dubs haven't been down the last few months will be down


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    #9807
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,495 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    niallo27 wrote: »
    Oh **** me, its like the 2 weeks behind Italy stuff from February. Have you anything remotely positive to say.

    Hard to say anything positive about Europe at this minute, it's a pretty rapid decline of the situation, over 400 ICU admissions in the EU in the last 48 hours. Some positive news is it is stabilising in much of South America, it is really good news there has been a lot of suffering there in recent months.


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    #9808
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Some ICUs in Madrid are full.
    This already generates a very difficult problem for us to solve.
    We may be sending a non-infected person to catch the virus just because they have a cold,
    and send asymptomatic infected to the clean area. It has already happened to us several times.
    A person who comes for any ailment, you go to a clean area, you do the PCR like everyone else and it comes out positive.
    This puts health workers and patients at risk ”, indicate health workers.
    That the pictures are less severe, or even asymptomatic, does not mean that the virus is now less lethal.
    “A few days ago, a 19-year-old girl came to us with anxiety, that led to cardiac arrest and she died right there.
    She died of a massive thrombus. I have already had four cardiac arrests of people under 25 years of age due to thrombi,
    people who did not present unusual external symptoms ”.

    https://twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/1308372692857356288?s=20


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    #9809
    polesheep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,950 ✭✭✭polesheep


    landofthetree wrote: »
    But that's literally how it gets into nursing homes.

    You don't think rules around staff doing overtime in multiple facilities would be useful? You prefer to think that staff partying in Oliver Bond is the issue?


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    #9810
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users Posts: 11,636 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Fairly big development in the last hour.
    HSE admits that 70-80 cases per day (for 10000 tests) are false positives.
    Christ.
    https://twitter.com/DavQuinn/status/1308493818027741184?s=20


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    #9811
    polesheep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,950 ✭✭✭polesheep


    Arghus wrote: »
    Illustrative again of how "just isolate the vulnerable" is easier said than done.

    No, illustrative of how those responsible cannot protect those that are obviously the most vulnerable.


This discussion has been closed.
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