Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

Arghus · 16-09-2020 03:48PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus/no-guarantee-covid-19-vaccine-will-be-found-says-who-s-mike-ryan-1.4356313

In my opinion Michael Ryan loses credibility with statements like this. What audience is he playing to here?

A number of vaccines are in very late stage of development (Phase 3) and have been be proven to produce an antibody response.

How does he lose credibility to state something that is a fact? There is no guarantee. What he is saying is true. Not credible? He wouldn't be credible if he didn't acknowledge this!

Now, it's looking encouraging and the signs there will, hopefully, be one or more - but the vaccines haven't been developed and are still in trials: it's not science fiction to point out that they could fail - drugs can fail at the very last hurdle, it happens.

Or they may not work as well as they are supposed to - something that provides antibody response may still not provide sufficient immunity, or the immunity could be short term, or there may be issues with scalability in production and availability. These are all legitimate concerns about any potential vaccine. The scenario where a vaccine immediately changes the game, is widely effective and widely available is not guaranteed - to point that out is just stating the obvious.

Martina1991 · 16-09-2020 03:48PM

Deleted User wrote: »

How many of them did your lab see Martina.

Fair play to all involved by the way. A lot of criticism is levelled at testing capacity, but i don't think many appreciate the effort required to put something like this in place. From procurement of supplies, manning the test centre, co-ordination of samples, analysts, reviewers, quality control, maintenance of equipment etc. etc. etc.

Oh i have no idea on numbers to date.
For a number of weeks the NVRL were the only lab performing tests until others were able to secure equipment, supplies and validate their assays.

From March to about June GPs were quieter, surgeries and outpatient clinics were postponed so Covid was the main focus. Now that everything is back and running full tilt, the pressure has only increased with bigger postponed workloads on top of increased Covid testing. People often forget about samples from GPs, but thats the vast majority of our workload.

Goldengirl · 16-09-2020 03:51PM

JDD wrote: »

I think I was probably one of the posters who was optimistic in July. I would have been surprised and concerned if you told me that the numbers testing positive had reached 200 a day or more by September, though I understood that as the economy opened, positive numbers had to go up.

Then again, I was comparing the circumstances from April and using that as my comparison point. We all knew that there were way more infections in April than were being picked up by testing, because of our restrictive testing criteria.

We were carrying out 40,000 tests per week back then, and catching 800 a day at the height of it. We are now carrying out approx 80,000 test per week. If we were doing that in April we'd likely have picked up 1600 cases a day, especially given the restrictive criteria to get a test.

Of course, we got those infection figures way down to 10 or so a day in June, but that was only after a very strict lockdown with schools being closed. Even Level 5 on the new plan doesn't envisage that level of lockdown. So at the very least we are probably going to have to accept that there will be 50 or so infections every day even under Level 5.

Level 5 can only be deployed very occasionally. So what level of infections per day - assuming testing capacity stays the same - can we be comfortable with while imposing the lowest possible level of restrictions?

Of course this is nuanced. We can accept a higher level of infections in the young population. It's when it spreads to the older population that the issues arise. So you might be comfortable with 500 new infections a day where 70% of the infections are in under 45s, whereas you might only be comfortable with 300 a day where 70% are in over 65s. Looking at the bald numbers without context is useless. I assume NPHET are doing this.

I'm not entirely sure what level I am comfortable at. But I do know that my priorities are a) that the health system is not overrun, to the point that people are dying when they shouldn't if they had the right treatment and b) a reasonable amount of restrictions remain in place to ensure we do not have a massively divergent number of deaths in comparison to our EU counterparts but that c) those restrictions are kept at a minimum to achieve the objectives at a) and b) at all times.

This + 1
Great post !
Just one point ..testing criteria is less restrictive now than it was , but I think you mean that anyone with a sniffle could get a test in the summer ?

Widdensushi · 16-09-2020 03:54PM

polesheep wrote: »

The herd moves on. Always.

Flock

16-09-2020 04:01PM

Boggles wrote: »

I remember the press conference well, 15 questions about the difference homeware and hardware. :rolleyes:

I was in several hardware stores the week they were open, no where did I see any section closed off.

I was in no homeware stores because these were all closed.

Where did all this actually happen?

I remember at the time Homestore+More had a lot of its stuff cut off, eg the Nutgrove store had the kitchen utensils/cutlery area railed-off but storage boxes/seating etc was accessible. It was a bit peculiar really, because nearly all of that store's products would come under the banner of home-ware. I think they just about got away with opening at all at the time.

harr · 16-09-2020 04:01PM

Are hotels affected if Dublin goes to level 3 .. we have night booked next week after putting it off for months. We are traveling from Laois.

ACitizenErased · 16-09-2020 04:03PM

It appears there is some sort of outbreak in Ballincollig in Cork.
Ballincollig GAA have suspended play.
Second case confirmed at Colaiste Choilm.
Another case identified at Gaelscoil Uí Ríordáin in Ballincollig just now.

GooglePlus · 16-09-2020 04:03PM

harr wrote: »

Are hotels affected if Dublin goes to level 3 .. we have night booked next week after putting it off for months. We are traveling from Laois.

No, they'll still be operating and will be mad for your money so bring plenty.

Always_Running · 16-09-2020 04:04PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Well, it's stabilizing a bit maybe?

Better than yesterday's 310 positive swabs from 8,120 tests - 3.8% positivity rate

gral6 · 16-09-2020 04:05PM

harr wrote: »

Are hotels affected if Dublin goes to level 3 .. we have night booked next week after putting it off for months. We are traveling from Laois.

Unfortunately, upon your return from Dublin you'll have to self isolate for 14 days. We are on the red list.

Goldengirl · 16-09-2020 04:06PM

owlbethere wrote: »

I wonder what is the problem with Dublin?

Is the rise in cases due to the capital being built up or is it from people ignoring the guidelines? If its from people ignoring the guidelines and having large house gatherings, putting Dublin under further restrictions isn't going to work. It will probably harm businesses especially small, hospitality businesses.

I don't think that is the case .
It is a busy , densely populated hub , even at the present time .
Rising cases and community transmission are obviously going to affect the most populated areas first due to multiple contacts .
A lot of Food Pubs in the city are not sticking to the guidelines from what I have seen and heard..no SD , no food , and no masks, and worst of all no policing of this !
I know some will come on here denying this , but this is what we are up against , a strong pro pub lobby who don't give a sxxx ..not all houseparties, although some of these are an issue too.

caveat emptor · 16-09-2020 04:07PM

Fox going full on anti-china.

https://twitter.com/KarluskaP/status/1306030362095689734?s=20

speckle · 16-09-2020 04:07PM

spookwoman wrote: »

Maybe someone can make some sense from these numbers on how they make up the confirmed numbers
Date|Tested Positive|Briefing Positive
10/09/2020|122|196
11/9/2020|227|211
12/9/2020|250|159
13/09/2020|-|255
14/09/2020|476|208
15/09/2020|310|357
16/09/2020|272|

not taking into account mentioned carry over of 73 from last thur re benimar

a. add 31 to restrospective test + blank and we have 272 brief today
b. had zero to blank test + and add 272 and 31=303 to brief today
or

c 272 test+ today and announce lower at brief and add to 73+31backlog

d. 272 test+ today and announce higher at brief adding some of the 31 and 73 backlog

doing that in my head so check with calculator

caveat numbers not my thing

16-09-2020 04:08PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Fox going full on anti-china.

https://twitter.com/KarluskaP/status/1306030362095689734?s=20

All being coordinated by Steve Bannon

manniot2 · 16-09-2020 04:10PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

My brother in DIT got his timetable, 1 in person day in the college every 3 weeks. The rest online

that is no college experience. id be deferring and trying to get a job somewhere for a year if i was him. you dont get those precious college years back!

16-09-2020 04:11PM

manniot2 wrote: »

that is no college experience. id be deferring and trying to get a job somewhere for a year if i was him. you dont get those precious college years back!

Jobs market is in the toilet. Not a fantastic time to be an 18 year old I'd say

GooglePlus · 16-09-2020 04:14PM

manniot2 wrote: »

that is no college experience. id be deferring and trying to get a job somewhere for a year if i was him. you dont get those precious college years back!

Feck that, get your degree online now while there is no life to be living. He can have all the fun he wants when this thing eases and he'll have a year or two study in the bag.

Eod100 · 16-09-2020 04:14PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It appears there is some sort of outbreak in Ballincollig in Cork.
Ballincollig GAA have suspended play.
Second case confirmed at Colaiste Choilm.
Another case identified at Gaelscoil Uí Ríordáin in Ballincollig just now.

It's interesting to see specific locations reported now. Know through word of mouth it's inevitable media find out but remember NPHET being very against it at the very start.

Irish Aris · 16-09-2020 04:16PM

Could I ask a question (apologies if this has already been discussed, this thread moves very fast

)

If Dublin goes to level 3 and the rest of the country is at level 2, am I allowed to go to Dublin to meet with my best friend?

The program states:
Domestic travel
Stay in your county (or other defined geographical area) apart from work, education and other essential purposes, if appropriate.

But what about the other way around?

Goldengirl · 16-09-2020 04:16PM

hmmm wrote: »

Wasn't this always the case once we didn't go for a zero-Covid approach? It was about managing infection without letting the hospitals become overwhelmed (not "herd immunity", long-term flattening of the curve). It's the difference between going down a steep hill by tapping the brakes and not braking at all.

We know from experience in other countries that we can keep the fatality rate low if hospitals have space and people get good care. But if we run out of hospital beds then the fatality rate will increase (this was the original problem back in Wuhan).

Yes but I can't accept deaths as a trade off for my prosperity, for survival maybe .

billybonkers · 16-09-2020 04:17PM

Martina1991 wrote: »

Just passed 1,000,000 tests completed as well.

But not 1,000,000 people tested

manniot2 · 16-09-2020 04:17PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Feck that, get your degree online now while there is no life to be living. He can have all the fun he wants when this thing eases and he'll have a year or two study in the bag.

the freedom and fun of those college years living away from home especially, is never really replicated imo as no matter where u are u will invariably be working.

the j1s are also a massive loss although i beleive they are less popular nowadays.

Benimar · 16-09-2020 04:18PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Feck that, get your degree online now while there is no life to be living. He can have all the fun he wants when this thing eases and he'll have a year or two study in the bag.

Exactly, there isn't much else to be doing anyway!

Also, and whisper it quietly, what if things are no better next September?... (I'm not saying they won't be before I'm attacked, I'm just posing the question)

Goldengirl · 16-09-2020 04:21PM

polesheep wrote: »

The herd moves on. Always.

That might include you and some others who agree with you .
But I think the majority here are more evolved than a herd

billybonkers · 16-09-2020 04:21PM

Irish Aris wrote: »

Could I ask a question (apologies if this has already been discussed, this thread moves very fast )

If Dublin goes to level 3 and the rest of the country is at level 2, am I allowed to go to Dublin to meet with my best friend?

The program states:
Domestic travel
Stay in your county (or other defined geographical area) apart from work, education and other essential purposes, if appropriate.

But what about the other way around?

No you should not got to a level 3 area from a lower level area

ShyMets · 16-09-2020 04:21PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Yes but I can't accept deaths as a trade off for my prosperity, for survival maybe .

But many people will accept a certain number of deaths. And as we're not pursuing a zero covid approach then deaths are inevitable. Its just a question of how many deaths are deemed acceptable

ACitizenErased · 16-09-2020 04:22PM

billybonkers wrote: »

But not 1,000,000 people tested

Close enough, wouldnt say theres many who are double tested in HSE labs

stephenjmcd · 16-09-2020 04:22PM

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1306244268223344640?s=19

stockshares · 16-09-2020 04:23PM

Latest 14 day incidence rates for Counties and Dublin LHO areas.

Dublin 104
Leitrim 76.8
Louth 71.8
Waterford 64.6
Offaly 61.6
Limerick 58.5
Kildare 55.3
Longford 51.4

Dublin NW 152.2
Dublin SE 122.1
Dublin SW. 108.8
Dublin NC. 107.4
Dublin W 104.9
Dublin SC. 91.4
Dublin N 89.1
Dublin S. 45.6

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1306164449997357056?s=19

big syke · 16-09-2020 04:26PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Close enough, wouldnt say theres many who are double tested in HSE labs

Good point, although i know of two people who have had 4 tests in 4 weeks.....dont ask........ :rolleyes::(

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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