How will schools be able to go back in September? (Continued)

munchkin_utd · 14-09-2020 10:56AM

Deleted User wrote: »

There is no evidence that any of the 56 cases are as a result of schools opening, and that was his point

theres also no evidence in the slightest that those cases have led to any transmission inside the school let alone sparking clusters / wider community infections.

The school situation has to be watched like a hawk, but from the looks of it its only showing up the problems caused elsewhere, its not the cause of the spread ittself

meeeeh · 14-09-2020 11:12AM

munchkin_utd wrote: »

The school situation has to be watched like a hawk, but from the looks of it its only showing up the problems caused elsewhere, its not the cause of the spread ittself

By experts not by amateur epidemiologists on Facebook. Frankly the twitterati and facbook experts are not holding government to account. They are just the same type of a group as antivaxxers, paedophile hunters and similar riff raff.

14-09-2020 11:23AM

meeeeh wrote: »

By experts not by amateur epidemiologists on Facebook. Frankly the twitterati and facbook experts are not holding government to account. They are just the same type of a group as antivaxxers, paedophile hunters and similar riff raff.

Its not the same - its genuine, but sometimes misinformed concern

Will Yam · 14-09-2020 11:58AM

PCros wrote: »

The Facebook page, it's debatable if those figures are correct but I'd say its near enough.

I believe there is an update of NPHET once a week on numbers in schools so we can cross reference then.

A big focus is needed on the Dublin area now, outside of it seems to be going well.

Ah, so now we are relying on Facebook pages to tell us the numbers.

We might as well let joe Duffy decide health policy based on the number of whingers who ring his show.

meeeeh · 14-09-2020 11:58AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Its not the same - its genuine, but sometimes misinformed concern

I don't think those who are antivaxx are doing it out of malice either. It's unverified information compiled by those who have no access to actual data or expertise. It might be less damaging than antivaxx or paedophile hunters but that's at the moment. I think Brexit or American election and similar events should teach us to be extremely careful about unverified data.

Will Yam · 14-09-2020 12:04PM

PCros wrote: »

It's probably to early yet to predict a disaster. Sure for all we know they could land Dublin straight in the red category or whatever it is tomorrow when this road map comes out.

I'm interested to hear what percentage on a 2 week rolling basis is acceptable in schools? At the moment we are looking at 3.9% which is not bad in my opinion. This could go up and it could go down but we are never going to be Covid free in any aspect of life until the vaccine arrives.

How is the 3.9% arrived at?

PCros · 14-09-2020 12:06PM

Will Yam wrote: »

Ah, so now we are relying on Facebook pages to tell us the numbers.

No not at all, I've said plenty of times that the numbers need to be taken with a pinch of salt but I wouldn't say they are too far off higher or lower.

As mentioned we can cross reference these with NPHET on a weekly basis.

PCros · 14-09-2020 12:08PM

As per the below...

Will Yam wrote: »

How is the 3.9% arrived at?

PCros wrote: »

76 cases in schools as of this morning from 02/09/2020.

1,965 cases in the same time frame thus 3.9% of cases in total are associated with schools.

47 in Dublin and 29 outside of Dublin.

14-09-2020 12:17PM

Will Yam wrote: »

Ah, so now we are relying on Facebook pages to tell us the numbers.

We might as well let joe Duffy decide health policy based on the number of whingers who ring his show.

May I ask who or what you are relying on to make you aware of the numbers?

Boggles · 14-09-2020 12:22PM

Deleted User wrote: »

But you don't need the information. I am a bit of a data nerd, and would like the information also, but me having the information is not necessary for any decisions that need to be made. As I said, we need the information for the schools that impact us, but not for those on the other side of the country, with different case profiles in their area. What happens in one area should inform the actions in another area when an outbreak occurs - e.g if the pod system is found wanting in that outbreaks occur in the wider class group when only pods are isolated, that should inform actions in other schools in other areas when issues arise. However parents making decisions based on incomplete information on what is happening elsewhere will just increase the level of panic.
Even if there were no cases in my county for 2 weeks, if multiple parents were withdrawing their kids due to schools outbreaks in other counties would make you question myself as to whether to leave my kids in school. But that is an emotional response, not a rational, fact based action.

You are looking at it too myopically and limited in your scope.

It's very little to do with the nuclear option of pulling children from school.

The information about school transmission is far more pertinent in the sense that it either backs up the narrative that exists that children don't really contract the virus and even if they do it is uncommon for them to transmit it, since we have started testing kids, part 1 of that is clearly untrue given the rate of detection in that age bracket.

That information is key not just for the school environment and what surrounds that, but other environments too.

Now I don't know if you have been paying attention, but the pendulum has swung from a scientific lead approach to a political one.

When that happens information let us say will be "tailored".

Example, the pubs and restaurants in Ireland that have been open the past couple of months are the safest place on the planet, absolutely no suggestion their is spread of the virus happening in any of them indoor non masked environments.

All that community spread is happening from contaminated petrol pump handles.

We are being told it is up to all of us to tailor or behavior appropriately, now the only way one can do that is to have honest information.

Will Yam · 14-09-2020 12:39PM

Balagan1 wrote: »

May I ask who or what you are relying on to make you aware of the numbers?

I’m relying on the figure of 65 (or 76 depending on the day you read the numbers ) to establish the total number of cases in schools. That leads to .0076% of students who caught covid. Quite happy to hear from an authoritative source as to whether 76 is too high (or too low).

Will Yam · 14-09-2020 12:40PM

PCros wrote: »

As per the below...

Can you explain the 1965 number?

Even if it is true, it 0.2% of students. 0% would be far better but 2 out of every 1,000 is hardly panic time.

(And I do know that the schools have only been open a couple of weeks etc etc etc)

PCros · 14-09-2020 12:47PM

Germany are a few weeks ahead of us in terms of schools reopening and so far its going well. Touch and go at the start but seems to be settling down.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/covid-schools-germany/2020/09/10/309648a4-eedf-11ea-bd08-1b10132b458f_story.html

Will Yam · 14-09-2020 12:50PM

PCros wrote: »

Germany are a few weeks ahead of us in terms of schools reopening and so far its going well. Touch and go at the start but seems to be settling down.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/covid-schools-germany/2020/09/10/309648a4-eedf-11ea-bd08-1b10132b458f_story.html

It’s inevitable there will be bumps on this particular road. Having thousands of parents, thousands of teachers, thousands of students all moving around, some in close proximity with each other will lead to cases.

The real issue is how many cases, and where. And that is why reliable data is so important.

PCros · 14-09-2020 12:51PM

Will Yam wrote: »

Can you explain the 1965 number?

Even if it is true, it 0.2% of students. 0% would be far better but 2 out of every 1,000 is hardly panic time.

(And I do know that the schools have only been open a couple of weeks etc etc etc)

The spreadsheet the Facebook site has starts from the 2nd September and is updated each day. I added up all the cases in Ireland since the 2nd September which is 1965 and then applied the percentage.

Not panicking at all, I'm on the side of cautiously optimistic.

Will Yam · 14-09-2020 12:53PM

PCros wrote: »

The spreadsheet the Facebook site has starts from the 2nd September and is updated each day. I added up all the cases in Ireland since the 2nd September which is 1965 and then applied the percentage.

Not panicking at all, I'm on the side of cautiously optimistic.

Thanks. Do you know who updates the Facebook page.

Good to see you’re optimistic, I agree with you.

But I am a little sceptical of prophets of doom.

munchkin_utd · 14-09-2020 12:57PM

PCros wrote: »

Germany are a few weeks ahead of us in terms of schools reopening and so far its going well. Touch and go at the start but seems to be settling down.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/covid-schools-germany/2020/09/10/309648a4-eedf-11ea-bd08-1b10132b458f_story.html

+1
a class in my daughters year (in Germany) is on quarantine for 2 weeks from today. All other classes are in, so thats 30 on quarantine, 920 in school.

So its a problem (quarantine, work from home etc) for parents of 30 students, not of the full 950 - and with the distancing and masks worn in class and windows opened all day theres not a massive chance that anyone even caught it for the day or 2 the child was infectious and in the class

And in case anyone asks, it was specifcally mentioned by the school that the parents acted responsibly and took the child out of class the minute there was suspicious symptoms and they werent on holiday abroad so that also was not a factor.

PCros · 14-09-2020 12:59PM

Will Yam wrote: »

Thanks. Do you know who updates the Facebook page.

Good to see you’re optimistic, I agree with you.

But I am a little sceptical of prophets of doom.

I've no idea who it is, seems to be a group of mothers.

There was a girl (same girl who does the Google map) who wanted to do her own research and publish numbers on Twitter. When she questioned the admins on validity on some of the HSE letters she was promptly removed and her comments deleted which is not great to be honest. We just need to use these numbers as a guide really.

There's good engagement and debate on this thread.

14-09-2020 01:02PM

Boggles wrote: »

Example, the pubs and restaurants in Ireland that have been open the past couple of months are the safest place on the planet, absolutely no suggestion their is spread of the virus happening in any of them indoor non masked environments.

Its included here.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19_Daily_epidemiology_report_(NPHET)_20200911_website.pdf

The "Other" bracket, which has always been low proportion is growing so probably warrants being broken out further. I would also hope that when it occurs, schools or Educational facilities get their own section

r93kaey5p2izun · 14-09-2020 01:06PM

Will Yam wrote: »

What is the source of your numbers?

It's published daily here.

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/9c338-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-sunday-13-september/#age-range-affected

You would need to monitor it daily though.

Will Yam · 14-09-2020 01:12PM

ginoginelli wrote: »

The governments recent switch in strategy 'to 'live with the virus' is shaping up to be a complete disaster. Since schools opened cases have exploded in dublin. And now the plan is to open up even more - with the likes of offices and travel next. We are on the cusp of ending up like Israel unless something changes.

On another note, the blatant propaganda propagated by the hse, government, and their best friends rte on the subject of schools has been stunning. The way colm Henry casually dropped about having 56 cases in schools after just a few days, and saying things were 'so far so good' was particularly fanciful. 56 cases so early was headline worthy but it was casually dismissed and barely mentioned by gov or in media.

We are being played.

Since schools opened up in Carlow, or many many other counties there hasn’t been an explosion of cases there.

So how can you attribute the Dublin situation to schools? If schools are attributable, they are attributable, regardless of where they are.

Maybe Henry is trying to dampen down the scaremongering?

meeeeh · 14-09-2020 01:21PM

Boggles wrote: »

You are looking at it too myopically and limited in your scope.

It's very little to do with the nuclear option of pulling children from school.

The information about school transmission is far more pertinent in the sense that it either backs up the narrative that exists that children don't really contract the virus and even if they do it is uncommon for them to transmit it, since we have started testing kids, part 1 of that is clearly untrue given the rate of detection in that age bracket.

That information is key not just for the school environment and what surrounds that, but other environments too.

Now I don't know if you have been paying attention, but the pendulum has swung from a scientific lead approach to a political one.

When that happens information let us say will be "tailored".

Example, the pubs and restaurants in Ireland that have been open the past couple of months are the safest place on the planet, absolutely no suggestion their is spread of the virus happening in any of them indoor non masked environments.

All that community spread is happening from contaminated petrol pump handles.

We are being told it is up to all of us to tailor or behavior appropriately, now the only way one can do that is to have honest information.

Actually what you are suggesting is that decision on the basis of Facebook posts would enough to counter official advice given by people who actually studied this kind of things. To make any conclusions about transmission in schools you need actual data and scientific examination of data not basing your decisions or conclusions on something Patsy from Facebook claims.

I think some of you here passed a doctorate in epidemiology in your mind and are making all sorts of outlandish claims about state cover up. The approach to deal with pandemic was always political, scientists can advise but it's up to politicians to deal with it and it always was up to politicians. The measures in Ireland were so draconian because we messed up at the beginning unlike many other European countries. Is that the scientific approach you are talking about?

Boggles · 14-09-2020 01:54PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Its included here.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19_Daily_epidemiology_report_(NPHET)_20200911_website.pdf

The "Other" bracket, which has always been low proportion is growing so probably warrants being broken out further. I would also hope that when it occurs, schools or Educational facilities get their own section

No, it isn't.

14-09-2020 01:57PM

Boggles wrote: »

No, it isn't.

Yes it is. Its just been extremely low until the past couple of weeks, which is why it did not warrant its own separate category. and based on the numbers, the other category is still likely to be dominated by community.

*Other outbreak location includes community, extended family, hotel, public house, retail outlet, travel related and all other
locations.

Boggles · 14-09-2020 01:58PM

meeeeh wrote: »

Actually what you are suggesting is that decision on the basis of Facebook posts would enough to counter official advice given by people who actually studied this kind of things. To make any conclusions about transmission in schools you need actual data and scientific examination of data not basing your decisions or conclusions on something Patsy from Facebook claims.

I didn't mention Facebook, I have literally no idea what you are talking about.

meeeeh wrote: »

The approach to deal with pandemic was always political,

I never said it wasn't.

Boggles · 14-09-2020 02:03PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes it is. Its just been extremely low until the past couple of weeks, which is why it did not warrant its own separate category. and based on the numbers, the other category is still likely to be dominated by community.

They are "outbreaks" not community transmission (which of course can't be tracked or there is at least minimal effort). AFAIK 5 "outbreaks" have been attributed to public houses, staff that have brought it in.

When was the last time you heard public health or any politician say that public houses are contributing to transmission?

We don't talk about it, it's bad for business.

14-09-2020 02:12PM

Boggles wrote: »

They are "outbreaks" not community transmission (which of course can't be tracked or there is at least minimal effort). AFAIK 5 "outbreaks" have been attributed to public houses, staff that have brought it in.

When was the last time you heard public health or any politician say that public houses are contributing to transmission?

We don't talk about it, it's bad for business.

If there are only 5 associated with pubs, 5 with restuarants and 2 with hotels, how can they be said to be contributing significantly in the face of 2,018 occurring in private homes

meeeeh · 14-09-2020 02:16PM

Boggles wrote: »

I didn't mention Facebook, I have literally no idea what you are talking about.

I never said it wasn't.

Oh sorry swinging pendulum from scientific to political approach must mean something different to you than it does to me.

caveat emptor · 14-09-2020 02:17PM

Face shields don't work. Outbreak in Swiss hotel. All staff who wore masks didn't get it, only those who wore face shields.
Wearing both together is fine but substituting a visor for a mask is not clever.
The virus is spread through the air, visors don't stop the air.

https://www.insider.com/face-shields-did-not-protect-people-from-coronavirus-swiss-outbreak-2020-7

Boggles · 14-09-2020 02:24PM

Deleted User wrote: »

If there are only 5 associated with pubs, 5 with restuarants and 2 with hotels, how can they be said to be contributing significantly in the face of 2,018 occurring in private homes

People live in private homes.

The virus doesn't walk in it itself, it is acquired elsewhere in the "community". Or are you buying into it's all house parties causing the increase and opening all the pubs cure it BS?

As unknown community transmission increases it's pretty hard to rule out the one place where people are allowed congregate indoors mask-less to be a contribute to this spread.

The point is the politicians and public health officials don't talk about it, it's bad for business.

Which is very understandable, but again it goes back to my point about personal responsibility and making informed decisions.

If the reality is one thing and the narrative another, that is impossible.

How will schools be able to go back in September? (Continued)

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