Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

If we don't have any forum members already in Dungarvan to Youghal especially near the coast there, perhaps somebody with a vehicle within 2 hours drive might like to do a live on the spot report as landfall seems most likely to be close to 9:30-10:00 p.m. on current developments.

Wherever the low crosses the coast, about 30 miles east of there would be the maximum wind and storm surge impact zone. I would imagine there's some seaside caravan parks in that general area, those should probably be toured by local police and visitors warned to take shelter (perhaps this is already happening).

If we do have current thread readers in that impact zone, could you let us know where you are situated and give us hourly or more frequent updates starting around 8 p.m. TIA.

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

If we don't have any forum members already in Dungarvan to Youghal especially near the coast there, perhaps somebody with a vehicle within 2 hours drive might like to do a live on the spot report as landfall seems most likely to be close to 9:30-10:00 p.m. on current developments.

Wherever the low crosses the coast, about 30 miles east of there would be the maximum wind and storm surge impact zone. I would imagine there's some seaside caravan parks in that general area, those should probably be toured by local police and visitors warned to take shelter (perhaps this is already happening).

If we do have current thread readers in that impact zone, could you let us know where you are situated and give us hourly or more frequent updates starting around 8 p.m. TIA.

listermint wrote: »

You'd expect the guards to do a swing by in these circumstances. Because many there might not use Irish news sites.

aisling86 wrote: »

Sounds like Ardmore would be the perfect spot!!!

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Exactly right and if there was an airport around Fermoy (Moorepark) or just south of there, they could have a TAF indicating peak gusts of 70 knots.

The peak wind gust on land at weather stations may be at Roches Point around 77 knots or around 140-150 km/hr. Some place along the coast east of there might hit 160-170 km/hr briefly, Waterford a little uncertain but 120-140 km/hr possible, mickger844posts get ready you may have a new station record.

Johnstown Castle could even hit 100 at this rate (not known for being well exposed there) meaning about 130 on exposed Wexford coasts.

Will be interesting to see how Moorepark and Gurteen do with wind gusts as the core moves inland. Will predict peaks around 55 knots for them. That could mean some better exposed locations (and around Lough Derg) could hit 60-65 knot gusts.

There will be trees down here and there in that general area even into eastern Galway, whether it's a moderate impact or major remains to be seen.

Needless to say I would stay off the roads tonight in most areas, after dark you can't see road obstructions until you're too close to stop.

As to ICON not picking this up, unfathomable really, the main meteorological detail of interest to me is that upper level conditions change very rapidly around the time Ellen approaches the south coast, a signature for explosive development potential. That upper level low that has been out to the west of Ireland for days is scheduled to reposition in a capture position leading to a rapid phase of Ellen into the larger circulation. Ellen then effectively becomes the main centre with the former main centre rotating around it from the southwest. That could then deepen when Ellen loses steam and lead to a second round of wind warnings this time for the west coast later Thursday.

BringBackMick wrote: »

The gardai oughta go down and close that carpark.

mumo3 wrote: »

Ahhhh the photo won't load and I'm super nosey

irishgeo wrote: »

2 isnt a load.

An Ri rua wrote: »

They're dead too it seems

limnam wrote: »

Working fine here

spookwoman wrote: »

More down the other end
http://89.106.143.18:120/cgi-bin/guestimage.html