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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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spookwoman

Load of camper vans parked up hook head :eek:

marno21

I couldn't see a Ryanair 737 into Cork at 6:40pm with the fog at the time. They are less than a minute from touchdown passing over here.

Another Ryanair 737 in from Naples in at 8:10pm which will be interesting to watch.

Met vis down to 300m at 18:00 due to fog.

Bizarre scenes right before a storm.

Meteorite58

UKMO, HARMONIE, ARPEGE

davo2001

spookwoman wrote: »

Load of camper vans parked up hook head :eek:

Idiots

http://89.106.143.18:121/cgi-bin/guestimage.html

caeser

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

If we don't have any forum members already in Dungarvan to Youghal especially near the coast there, perhaps somebody with a vehicle within 2 hours drive might like to do a live on the spot report as landfall seems most likely to be close to 9:30-10:00 p.m. on current developments.

Wherever the low crosses the coast, about 30 miles east of there would be the maximum wind and storm surge impact zone. I would imagine there's some seaside caravan parks in that general area, those should probably be toured by local police and visitors warned to take shelter (perhaps this is already happening).

If we do have current thread readers in that impact zone, could you let us know where you are situated and give us hourly or more frequent updates starting around 8 p.m. TIA.

Yep situated half way between youghal and dungarvan at 160m. Looking at interest at this one. Ophelia caused structural damage to my house and this one looks like it has the capacity to do similar. Long night ahead I think

BringBackMick

davo2001 wrote: »

Idiots

http://89.106.143.18:121/cgi-bin/guestimage.html

The gardai oughta go down and close that carpark.

aisling86

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

If we don't have any forum members already in Dungarvan to Youghal especially near the coast there, perhaps somebody with a vehicle within 2 hours drive might like to do a live on the spot report as landfall seems most likely to be close to 9:30-10:00 p.m. on current developments.

Wherever the low crosses the coast, about 30 miles east of there would be the maximum wind and storm surge impact zone. I would imagine there's some seaside caravan parks in that general area, those should probably be toured by local police and visitors warned to take shelter (perhaps this is already happening).

If we do have current thread readers in that impact zone, could you let us know where you are situated and give us hourly or more frequent updates starting around 8 p.m. TIA.

Sounds like Ardmore would be the perfect spot!!!

listermint

davo2001 wrote: »

Idiots

http://89.106.143.18:121/cgi-bin/guestimage.html

You'd expect the guards to do a swing by in these circumstances. Because many there might not use Irish news sites.

irishgeo

listermint wrote: »

You'd expect the guards to do a swing by in these circumstances. Because many there might not use Irish news sites.

2 isnt a load.

leahyl

Surely Met Éireann will update the warnings to include other counties now?

caeser

aisling86 wrote: »

Sounds like Ardmore would be the perfect spot!!!

Yes very close to Ardmore. Wind is picking up a little so fingers crossed the forecast is a little over the actual.

[Deleted User]

m17 wrote: »

Co galway

Begging your Pardon M17, but that particular location is in Mayo

lucernarian

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Exactly right and if there was an airport around Fermoy (Moorepark) or just south of there, they could have a TAF indicating peak gusts of 70 knots.

The peak wind gust on land at weather stations may be at Roches Point around 77 knots or around 140-150 km/hr. Some place along the coast east of there might hit 160-170 km/hr briefly, Waterford a little uncertain but 120-140 km/hr possible, mickger844posts get ready you may have a new station record.

Johnstown Castle could even hit 100 at this rate (not known for being well exposed there) meaning about 130 on exposed Wexford coasts.

Will be interesting to see how Moorepark and Gurteen do with wind gusts as the core moves inland. Will predict peaks around 55 knots for them. That could mean some better exposed locations (and around Lough Derg) could hit 60-65 knot gusts.

There will be trees down here and there in that general area even into eastern Galway, whether it's a moderate impact or major remains to be seen.

Needless to say I would stay off the roads tonight in most areas, after dark you can't see road obstructions until you're too close to stop.

As to ICON not picking this up, unfathomable really, the main meteorological detail of interest to me is that upper level conditions change very rapidly around the time Ellen approaches the south coast, a signature for explosive development potential. That upper level low that has been out to the west of Ireland for days is scheduled to reposition in a capture position leading to a rapid phase of Ellen into the larger circulation. Ellen then effectively becomes the main centre with the former main centre rotating around it from the southwest. That could then deepen when Ellen loses steam and lead to a second round of wind warnings this time for the west coast later Thursday.

Are we seeing any real-time indicators of the worse case scenario? Considering its basically nowcast territory

An Ri rua

squarecircles wrote: »

id love if someone wrote a thesis why the most severe storms always impact the southern third of the country,the really destrutive ones.

there seems to be a narrow swathe of the country from south mayo through the north midlands to dublin and the northeast that never get a severe storm as much as the northwest -sligo donegal and the southern portion of the country.

Geography, you'd imagine? Short thesis.

froog

ICON has finally come in line with the others. GFS upgraded too.

downwesht

pressure 965mb in Skibbereen!falling slowly!!!!

An Ri rua

BringBackMick wrote: »

The gardai oughta go down and close that carpark.

Too late. The camera's been taken out by 200km/h winds.

mumo3

BringBackMick wrote: »

The gardai oughta go down and close that carpark.

Ahhhh the photo won't load and I'm super nosey

Ninthlife

mumo3 wrote: »

Ahhhh the photo won't load and I'm super nosey

Not loading for me either

Meteorite58

The Jet roaring along spinning the storm into position, will see after if a jet Streak has an impact.

spookwoman

irishgeo wrote: »

2 isnt a load.

More down the other end
http://89.106.143.18:120/cgi-bin/guestimage.html

An Ri rua

spookwoman wrote: »

More down the other end
http://89.106.143.18:120/cgi-bin/guestimage.html

They're dead too it seems

limnam

An Ri rua wrote: »

They're dead too it seems

Working fine here

CJhaughey

Someone had the sense to turn all the picnic tables over anyway.

Storm 10

limnam wrote: »

Working fine here

None work for me

Awaaf

An Ri rua wrote: »

They're dead too it seems

Loads for me. Shows carparks at Hook Head lighthouse with 5-6 campervans (and some cars) in carparks. Behind them in the grassy compound the picnic benches are all turned upside down.

limnam

Looks like a few of the cars are leaving

[Deleted User]

So Wexford and Waterford are currently on a yellow warning but may be experiencing red conditions within 3 hours?
Shouldn't they have been upgraded to orange before now at least as a precaution?

redsteveireland

spookwoman wrote: »

More down the other end
http://89.106.143.18:120/cgi-bin/guestimage.html

At least they'll be blown away from the sea

loveall

Wouldn't like to be on the WB Yeats to Cherbourg right now.....can't help but think in non C19 times they wouldn't have sailed.