Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

DOCARCH

ME have a weather advisory in relation to same....

Unseasonably wet and windy weather is expected at times this week with further rainfall warnings likely and possible wind warnings.

Windy weather on Thursday and Friday may result in unsafe conditions over high ground, lakes and sea areas.

Darwin

I know things will chop and change between now and Thursday, but it is pretty strange seeing the automated wind forecast giving mean wind speeds of 72kmh (laois) at this time of year. I see the UK met office have already issued a yellow wind warning for NI

Meteorite58

ECM has a particurly nasty looking storm running up through the country, on the 06z has it deepening all the way on it's transit from S to NW on this run showing high end Orange or even touching Red warning level for a swathe from the SE and possibly S to the NW. Fast moving system from late Weds or early Thurs and strongest winds look to have cleared the NW early morning.

There is a big spread now in the models, GFS not really showing it, ARPEGE keeping strongest winds along the SE and E coasts, HIRLAM and HARMONIE more into the SW and up along the W coasts. So, far from definite, would expect further changes one way or the other.

Models struggling with this due to it deepening so fast and it moving over the ground so fast.

To note other episodes of strong or very strong winds by the weekend. Could also be heavy thunderstorms, straight line winds giving localised flooding, particurly bad driving conditions at times. Caravan parks and such like in particular would want to watch this closely. High swell coming into the S also.

aisling86

Meteorite58 wrote: »

ECM has a particurly nasty looking storm running up through the country, on the 06z has it deepening all the way on it's transit from S to NW on this run showing high end Orange or even touching Red warning level for a swathe from the SE and possibly S to the NW. Fast moving system from late Weds or early Thurs and strongest winds look to have cleared the NW early morning.

There is a big spread now in the models, GFS not really showing it, ARPEGE keeping strongest winds along the SE and E coasts, HIRLAM and HARMONIE more into the SW and up along the W coasts. So, far from definite, would expect further changes one way or the other.

Models struggling with this due to it deepening so fast and it moving over the ground so fast.

To note other episodes of strong or very strong winds by the weekend. Could also be heavy thunderstorms, straight line winds giving localised flooding, particurly bad driving conditions at times. Caravan parks and such like in particular would want to watch this closely. High swell coming into the S also.

Eagle Point has issues a warning on their Facebook page for southerly gales. Spring tides also from evening 20th until 22nd.
Hopefully more caravan parks do the same as lots on camping with kids page on FB think it will just be a bit wet!

pad199207

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Ireland

Met Éireann Weather Warning

It will become very windy on Wednesday night and throughout the day on Thursday. Severe gusts are likely and there is a risk of some disruption.

Due to the combination of storm surge, spring tides and onshore winds there is a potential risk of coastal flooding.

Valid: 21:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020 to 23:59 Thursday 20/08/2020

Issued: 15:00 Tuesday 18/08/2020

aisling86

pad199207 wrote: »

I’d say Met Eireann are terrified to issue any warning as of yet. Much to be resolved in such a short space of time.

Advisory is up on website now. https://www.met.ie/warnings

SleetAndSnow

Debating going down to west cork near Rosscarbery or staying in the City to see the strongest winds, presume try to go down west? House is next to the coast! Just looks like cork city will see stronger winds on the map though

aisling86

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Debating going down to west cork near Rosscarbery or staying in the City to see the strongest winds, presume try to go down west? House is next to the coast! Just looks like cork city will see stronger winds on the map though

On current track just missing us currently in macroom & contemplating heading to my mothers in the city to see what it's like!

Akrasia

Thanks for this thread, I'll need probably need to make a trip west tomorrow afternoon to secure our caravan before this arrives

sryanbruen

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Ireland

It will become very windy on Wednesday night and throughout the day on Thursday. Severe gusts are likely and there is a risk of some disruption.

Due to the combination of storm surge, spring tides and onshore winds there is a potential risk of coastal flooding.

Valid: 21:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020 to 23:59 Thursday 20/08/2020

Issued: 15:00 Tuesday 18/08/2020

Meteorite58

ECM 06Z. ARPEGE 12Z and UKMO quite grouped together, American models not showing it. Very severe on these runs, ECM 12Z out shortly will see if it holds.

Must be noted ICON doesent have it to this extent, HIRLAM-FMI more bringing it up along the W coasts . HARMONIE more like the ECM now but not as strong but still rough.






















UKMO 0Z

Meteorite58

Going to be a rough few days, flooding potential and thunderstorm potential.

GreeBo

We've just had a number of crazy heavy showers followed by bright sunshine in South Dublin.
A random basin in my garden has over 3 inches of water in it since Sunday.

squarecircles

The Irish sub tropical cyclone/hurricane season seems to be starting earlier and earlier each year,must be all that exceptional heat in the atmosphere to our south.

Meteorite58

UKMO 12Z is out and no downgrade that is for sure, will the ECM 12Z match it.............

JanuarySnowstor

Guys this is unreal and come out of nowhere!!
The conditions shown by some models warrant a red for sure in the South

ninebeanrows

The EC 12z is insane

aisling86

My aunt has a summer house next to Garrrylucas beach & I've told my mother to tell her get back home to the city! It's insane looking!

Meteorite58

Gulp :eek:

Shift in track over more to the W. Self explanatory how severe that would be. Both UKMO and ECMWF must surely be taken very seriously now. An absolute bomb.

No doubt down to the wire with the track and strength of this but rarely do you see a storm as strong as this being shown so near to the event and especially this time of the year.

pad199207

Very Ophelia

sdanseo

No captions required really, but I don't think I've ever seen the ECM forecast +200km/h gusts at this range.

Note first image is MEAN speed. Not quite a tropical cyclone but has at least the appearance of a distant cousin.
Not often that you can see the entire cylonic movement by advancing just a couple of frames.

M.T. Cranium

Is there some remnant energy of Kyle moving into the development zone? I was almost on holiday the past 4-5 days and only noted Kyle was somewhere around 40N moving east during its brief cycle. Then I looked at 12z CMC map and noticed a low heading east towards northern Iberian peninsula just to the north of Azores? Trigger for this postulated event?

Mods, of course feel free to amend my thread title and risk category as you wish, I will be out of the loop most of the day.

Gruffalux

Those gifs make it look as though all up tge country will be affected not just south? Is that so? Midlands and west too?

sdanseo

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Is there some remnant energy of Kyle moving into the development zone? I was almost on holiday the past 4-5 days and only noted Kyle was somewhere around 40N moving east during its brief cycle. Then I looked at 12z CMC map and noticed a low heading east towards northern Iberian peninsula just to the north of Azores? Trigger for this postulated event?

Mods, of course feel free to amend my thread title and risk category as you wish, I will be out of the loop most of the day.

I read something on Twitter (and I thought also here) about the tail end of Kyle mixing things up this week. But dismissed it as the usual non-event.

pad199207

‪Earlier on today aparantly a woman rang the bbc and said she heard a hurricane was on the way...‬

Reckless Abandonment

Typical 2020.. drop a hurricane on us with 24 hours notice..

dsmythy

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Is there some remnant energy of Kyle moving into the development zone? I was almost on holiday the past 4-5 days and only noted Kyle was somewhere around 40N moving east during its brief cycle. Then I looked at 12z CMC map and noticed a low heading east towards northern Iberian peninsula just to the north of Azores? Trigger for this postulated event?

Mods, of course feel free to amend my thread title and risk category as you wish, I will be out of the loop most of the day.

Glad you mentioned it. I was looking at it here wondering how is this possible.

SEPT 23 1989

If it moves east towards Dublin it might even get a mention in the news

pad199207

Met Eireann for tomorrow night currently

“Wind warnings are in effect for Wednesday night when very windy or stormy conditions are expected to develop.”

SleetAndSnow

Think I might head down to my house in West cork so if this is the case!

Reckless Abandonment

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Think I might head down to my house in West cork so if this is the case!

If this is the case. Your house might come to you

sdanseo

If the 00Z matches this there'll be red warnings issued for swathes of the country (probably all of Munster and Connacht) in the morning.

The 12Z could simply be off its rocker but two runs in a row with only one left behind it before the event isn't enough time for people to prepare.

leahyl

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

If this is the case. Your house might come to you

Lol

AndrewJRenko

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

If it moves east towards Dublin it might even get a mention in the news

Is there any safe outdoor location in the Dublin area that would allow you to see the storm first hand, without creating any risk of danger to yourself or anyone else?

leahyl

Seems pretty quiet on here despite this apparent huge windstorm coming our way!

aisling86

leahyl wrote: »

Seems pretty quiet on here despite this apparent huge windstorm coming our way!

I dont think people are over the shock just yet!

leahyl

aisling86 wrote: »

I dont think people are over the shock just yet!

Or everybody is too busy giving out about Covid restrictions and haven’t noticed....

dzsfah2xoynme9

Orange wind warning now..

Xenji

Status Orange - Wind warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick and Waterford
Met Éireann Weather Warning

Storm Ellen will track over Ireland on Wednesday night and during Thursday bringing a period of severe and potentially damaging winds.

Associated heavy rain will also bring a risk of flooding.

Due to the combination of storm surge, spring tides and onshore winds there is a potential risk of coastal flooding.

Valid: 21:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020 to 12:00 Thursday 20/08/2020

Issued: 20:00 Tuesday 18/08/2020

lilydonoghue

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

If this is the case. Your house might come to you

That’s very funny

Meteorite58

I am very surprised the ICON not showing this as the others. Even the Australian and Chinese model have it , Australian more like the ECM and GEM also like the ECM if not quite as strong. GFS has missed this one so far.

igCorcaigh

pad199207 wrote: »

‪Earlier on today aparantly a woman rang the bbc and said she heard a hurricane was on the way...‬

Didn't this happen before LOL!!

leahyl

Some insane rain showing for Cork on rain predictive radar on met.ie

igCorcaigh

Any thoughts on thunderstorm potential with this?

Meteorite58

Thurs and Fri have there own rough weather conditions to contend with. LP parked off the W, which seems to deepen before filling slowly, sending in fronts and short waves. Again this is not tied down, the models are all showing different scenarios with some severe wind close shaves, so will need to keep a close eye on it , ICON goes on to show very strong winds on Thurs in the SW.

Meteorite58

Any thoughts on thunderstorm potential with this?

Weds into Thurs could have some Thundery bursts, good lapse rates in the SW perhaps and most importantly Deep Layer Shear and frontal forcing not to mention Low level shear.

Thurs post front looks very unstable and could be a fair scattering of thunderstorms just about anywhere. Again decent enough preliminary lapse rates and tons of DLS with part of the Jet over us. Perhaps some funnels or weak tornadoes but these are rare.

SleetAndSnow

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1295809982789804034?s=20

Looks like the higher res models have the East coast getting the brunt of it! Nothing finalised yet

igCorcaigh

Very interesting, cheers Meteorite.

pad199207

Glasnevin are going to be up all night with this.

spookwoman

With the leaves still on trees could cause problems with trees and lines going down