Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

Viewtodiefor · 19-08-2020 7:15pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

If we don't have any forum members already in Dungarvan to Youghal especially near the coast there, perhaps somebody with a vehicle within 2 hours drive might like to do a live on the spot report as landfall seems most likely to be close to 9:30-10:00 p.m. on current developments.

Wherever the low crosses the coast, about 30 miles east of there would be the maximum wind and storm surge impact zone. I would imagine there's some seaside caravan parks in that general area, those should probably be toured by local police and visitors warned to take shelter (perhaps this is already happening).

If we do have current thread readers in that impact zone, could you let us know where you are situated and give us hourly or more frequent updates starting around 8 p.m. TIA.

Few miles east of Dungarvan here 300 mts from coast light breeze drizzle blowing

sdanseo · 19-08-2020 7:17pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Interestingly, the 'ICON Flash' has stronger winds for the south tomorrow evening than at any time overnight (gust speed forecast for 7pm tomorrow)

That big number will be Carrauntoohil though, 1,041m up, won't it?

sunbabe08 · 19-08-2020 7:17pm

Will there be any thunder and lightening from this?

Burts Bee · 19-08-2020 7:18pm

I'm in North Cork, any idea what to expect? Fairly elevated with not much shelter!

spookwoman · 19-08-2020 7:18pm

Tramore high tide gone about 45mins and nothing to see on the camera. Rain for fog has just blocked off any view.
Waterford itself muggy with a bit of a breeze starting

squarecircles · 19-08-2020 7:19pm

id love if someone wrote a thesis why the most severe storms always impact the southern third of the country,the really destrutive ones.

there seems to be a narrow swathe of the country from south mayo through the north midlands to dublin and the northeast that never get a severe storm as much as the northwest -sligo donegal and the southern portion of the country.

spookwoman · 19-08-2020 7:20pm

Load of camper vans parked up hook head :eek:

marno21 · 19-08-2020 7:22pm

I couldn't see a Ryanair 737 into Cork at 6:40pm with the fog at the time. They are less than a minute from touchdown passing over here.

Another Ryanair 737 in from Naples in at 8:10pm which will be interesting to watch.

Met vis down to 300m at 18:00 due to fog.

Bizarre scenes right before a storm.

Meteorite58 · 19-08-2020 7:22pm

UKMO, HARMONIE, ARPEGE

davo2001 · 19-08-2020 7:23pm

spookwoman wrote: »

Load of camper vans parked up hook head :eek:

Idiots

http://89.106.143.18:121/cgi-bin/guestimage.html

caeser · 19-08-2020 7:23pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

If we don't have any forum members already in Dungarvan to Youghal especially near the coast there, perhaps somebody with a vehicle within 2 hours drive might like to do a live on the spot report as landfall seems most likely to be close to 9:30-10:00 p.m. on current developments.

Wherever the low crosses the coast, about 30 miles east of there would be the maximum wind and storm surge impact zone. I would imagine there's some seaside caravan parks in that general area, those should probably be toured by local police and visitors warned to take shelter (perhaps this is already happening).

If we do have current thread readers in that impact zone, could you let us know where you are situated and give us hourly or more frequent updates starting around 8 p.m. TIA.

Yep situated half way between youghal and dungarvan at 160m. Looking at interest at this one. Ophelia caused structural damage to my house and this one looks like it has the capacity to do similar. Long night ahead I think

BringBackMick · 19-08-2020 7:27pm

davo2001 wrote: »

Idiots

http://89.106.143.18:121/cgi-bin/guestimage.html

The gardai oughta go down and close that carpark.

aisling86 · 19-08-2020 7:27pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

If we don't have any forum members already in Dungarvan to Youghal especially near the coast there, perhaps somebody with a vehicle within 2 hours drive might like to do a live on the spot report as landfall seems most likely to be close to 9:30-10:00 p.m. on current developments.

Wherever the low crosses the coast, about 30 miles east of there would be the maximum wind and storm surge impact zone. I would imagine there's some seaside caravan parks in that general area, those should probably be toured by local police and visitors warned to take shelter (perhaps this is already happening).

If we do have current thread readers in that impact zone, could you let us know where you are situated and give us hourly or more frequent updates starting around 8 p.m. TIA.

Sounds like Ardmore would be the perfect spot!!!

listermint · 19-08-2020 7:28pm

davo2001 wrote: »

Idiots

http://89.106.143.18:121/cgi-bin/guestimage.html

You'd expect the guards to do a swing by in these circumstances. Because many there might not use Irish news sites.

irishgeo · 19-08-2020 7:31pm

listermint wrote: »

You'd expect the guards to do a swing by in these circumstances. Because many there might not use Irish news sites.

2 isnt a load.

leahyl · 19-08-2020 7:31pm

Surely Met Éireann will update the warnings to include other counties now?

caeser · 19-08-2020 7:31pm

aisling86 wrote: »

Sounds like Ardmore would be the perfect spot!!!

Yes very close to Ardmore. Wind is picking up a little so fingers crossed the forecast is a little over the actual.

19-08-2020 7:31pm

m17 wrote: »

Co galway

Begging your Pardon M17, but that particular location is in Mayo

lucernarian · 19-08-2020 7:31pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Exactly right and if there was an airport around Fermoy (Moorepark) or just south of there, they could have a TAF indicating peak gusts of 70 knots.

The peak wind gust on land at weather stations may be at Roches Point around 77 knots or around 140-150 km/hr. Some place along the coast east of there might hit 160-170 km/hr briefly, Waterford a little uncertain but 120-140 km/hr possible, mickger844posts get ready you may have a new station record.

Johnstown Castle could even hit 100 at this rate (not known for being well exposed there) meaning about 130 on exposed Wexford coasts.

Will be interesting to see how Moorepark and Gurteen do with wind gusts as the core moves inland. Will predict peaks around 55 knots for them. That could mean some better exposed locations (and around Lough Derg) could hit 60-65 knot gusts.

There will be trees down here and there in that general area even into eastern Galway, whether it's a moderate impact or major remains to be seen.

Needless to say I would stay off the roads tonight in most areas, after dark you can't see road obstructions until you're too close to stop.

As to ICON not picking this up, unfathomable really, the main meteorological detail of interest to me is that upper level conditions change very rapidly around the time Ellen approaches the south coast, a signature for explosive development potential. That upper level low that has been out to the west of Ireland for days is scheduled to reposition in a capture position leading to a rapid phase of Ellen into the larger circulation. Ellen then effectively becomes the main centre with the former main centre rotating around it from the southwest. That could then deepen when Ellen loses steam and lead to a second round of wind warnings this time for the west coast later Thursday.

Are we seeing any real-time indicators of the worse case scenario? Considering its basically nowcast territory

An Ri rua · 19-08-2020 7:33pm

squarecircles wrote: »

id love if someone wrote a thesis why the most severe storms always impact the southern third of the country,the really destrutive ones.

there seems to be a narrow swathe of the country from south mayo through the north midlands to dublin and the northeast that never get a severe storm as much as the northwest -sligo donegal and the southern portion of the country.

Geography, you'd imagine? Short thesis.