Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

JP Liz V1 · 22-07-2020 11:39PM

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/shed-say-shes-lived-so-long-from-going-to-mass-every-day-dublin-woman-celebrates-104th-birthday-after-overcoming-covid-19-39389597.html

Dubliner Josephine Silo celebrated her 104th birthday “in great form” today after overcoming Covid-19 earlier in the month.

Ms Silo’s family threw her a garden party to celebrate and despite her advanced years, her niece Anna Colfer said she was the life of the party.

“She’s in great form, she’s the centre of attention and loving it all,” she said.

majcos · 22-07-2020 11:42PM

Ardent wrote: »

There was concern for a time that blood pressure medication might be responsible for severe covid symptoms. However, multiple medical and scientific reports are showing that blood pressure medication is actually beneficial against covid. The current thought behind the reason for this is that the increased ACE2 receptors lead the disease away from the receptors in the lungs, effectively sending it up a cul-de-sac.
http://archive.ph/foba2

Regarding severe illness in BAME folks, the widely accepted view behind the cause of this is vitamin D deficiency.

As far as I understand now, not the blood pressure medications but having high blood pressure itself in the first place that is believed to increase risk of poorer outcome.

Don’t want anyone to stop taking their blood pressure tablets!

ShineOn7 · 22-07-2020 11:50PM

From Reddit UAE

'The UAE's r-rate - which indicates the reproduction rate of the virus - has been calculated at 0.74. A rate below one is considered positive as it means that, if maintained over time, the virus will eventually be eliminated.'

Is the bit in bold true?

I thought we were long past true eradication in the vast majority of major countries (apart from maybe New Zealand and Australia)

What Username Guidelines · 22-07-2020 11:50PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

HSE Daily Operations Update

14 in hospitals, no change.
1 admission/confirmed case in Drogheda today and 2 overnight in Vincents and Tallaght.
6 in ICU, down by 1.
1 death in the past 24 hours.
4 being ventilated, down by 1.

Lots of changes in those 14 patients when comparing with yesterday.

Mater -3
Tallaght -1 +1
Drogheda +1
Kerry +2
Waterford -1
Naas +1 -1
Vincents +1 -1 +1

petes · 22-07-2020 11:54PM

pjohnson wrote: »

When he dries his eyes a bit that'll be you *ignored* next.

It's a trait some of the more narcissistic posters have. I'll post this and I'm right...I'm always right.They won't post for a while after being proved wrong or called out and then think that posters won't remember so they'll start posting in the thread again

Miike · 22-07-2020 11:55PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

From Reddit UAE

Is the bit in bold true?

I thought we were long past true eradication in the vast majority of major countries (apart from maybe New Zealand and Australia)

If the R0 drops below 1.0 the virus will EVENTUALLY fizzle out in the population (if the R0 is kept below 1). The R0 is just the basic reproduction number where 1 = 1 person infected with COVID19 is likely to infect one other person over the course of the persons infectious period.

This is often confused with the Re - The effective reproduction number. Which is a whole new kettle of fish!

ShineOn7 · 22-07-2020 11:58PM

Miike wrote: »

If the R0 drops below 1.0 the virus will EVENTUALLY fizzle out in the population (if the R0 is kept below 1). The R0 is just the basic reproduction number where 1 = 1 person infected with COVID19 is likely to infect one other person over the course of the persons infectious period.

Oh I know what the R0 means

I just didn't think eradication was possible in the majority of countries with Covid

Miike · 23-07-2020 12:08AM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Oh I know what the R0 means

I just didn't think eradication was possible in the majority of countries with Covid

The only way to really make the R0 drop below 1 and stay there, for the potential of 'eradication' would be to lock the country up and close the borders. It's not realistic to say that the virus will die out completely. The R0 is variable and has limitations i.e. even with an R0 of below one you can still have outbreaks.

igCorcaigh · 23-07-2020 12:14AM

Still not known if warmer weather slows Covid-19 spread – study

https://www.breakingnews.ie/world/still-not-known-if-warmer-weather-slows-covid-19-spread-study-1012046.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

I guess there are too many variables involved, but I had hoped we would have at least learned something about this issue by now.

igCorcaigh · 23-07-2020 12:15AM

Miike wrote: »

If the R0 drops below 1.0 the virus will EVENTUALLY fizzle out in the population (if the R0 is kept below 1). The R0 is just the basic reproduction number where 1 = 1 person infected with COVID19 is likely to infect one other person over the course of the persons infectious period.

This is often confused with the Re - The effective reproduction number. Which is a whole new kettle of fish!

Yes, theoretically, but the R0 is an average and can vary according to local conditions etc.

Non solum non ambulabit · 23-07-2020 12:25AM

cnocbui wrote: »

Ha, ha, ha. Go tell it to those who have been reinfected.

Winning the Euromillions is highly unlikely, but guess what?

If reinfection was as rare as Euromillions win then it would be so rare as to be irrelevant

Odds on winning Euromillions 140 million to 1

There are 15 million confirmed cases worldwide. So Confirmed cases would need to increase 10 fold before statistically we would get a reinfection.

Non solum non ambulabit · 23-07-2020 12:32AM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

From Reddit UAE

A rate below one is considered positive as it means that, if maintained over time, the virus will eventually be eliminated.'

Is the bit in bold true?

Is that a serious question? Of course it's true. An R rate below 1 can only lead to eradication over time.

ceadaoin. · 23-07-2020 12:55AM

majcos wrote: »

As far as I understand now, not the blood pressure medications but having high blood pressure itself in the first place that is believed to increase risk of poorer outcome.

Don’t want anyone to stop taking their blood pressure tablets!

In my area, out of 577 total deaths, 257 had hypertension as an underlying condition. Seems to be a big risk but it may be over represented because its a fairly common condition?

bb1234567 · 23-07-2020 12:59AM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

In my area, out of 577 total deaths, 257 had hypertension as an underlying condition. Seems to be a big risk but it may be over represented because its a fairly common condition?

Yeh, fairly common is an understatement! Especially given the age of most people who have died.

75% of people over 70 have hypertension
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK9636/

Always_Running · 23-07-2020 12:59AM

Miike wrote: »

If the R0 drops below 1.0 the virus will EVENTUALLY fizzle out in the population (if the R0 is kept below 1). The R0 is just the basic reproduction number where 1 = 1 person infected with COVID19 is likely to infect one other person over the course of the persons infectious period.

This is often confused with the Re - The effective reproduction number. Which is a whole new kettle of fish!

Didn't see it reported lately, does anyone want to guess what the RO number is in Ireland right now?

AlmightyCushion · 23-07-2020 01:05AM

Always_Running wrote: »

Didn't see it reported lately, does anyone want to guess what the RO number is in Ireland right now?

I think it gets reported on a thursday. Given our 7 day rolling average has stayed relatively steady the past week, I'm gonna guess somewhere around 1.

ceadaoin. · 23-07-2020 01:06AM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Yeh, fairly common is an understatement! Especially given the age of most people who have died.

75% of people over 70 have hypertension
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK9636/

Wow, I didn't realise that many people have it!

cnocbui · 23-07-2020 01:08AM

majcos wrote: »

How much of your 49.5 million are you willing to donate to research?

My neighbour Dolores won €113 m, I'll let her go first.

igCorcaigh · 23-07-2020 01:08AM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Is that a serious question? Of course it's true. An R rate below 1 can only lead to eradication over time.

In a mathematical sense, yes. Exponential decay.

But R0 is an average in an equation. There may be localities where the outbreak rises.

bb1234567 · 23-07-2020 01:36AM

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/21/us/felician-sisters-covid-deaths-trnd/index.html

Michigan convent loses 13 sisters to Covid ,really terrible I'd imagine nuns largely keep within their own social circle and is a devastating loss to the surviving 37 members . RIP.

JP Liz V1 · 23-07-2020 01:37AM

bb1234567 wrote: »

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2020/07/22/13-nuns-at-livonia-convent-die-from-covid-19/%3foutputType=amp

Michigan convent loses 13 sisters to Covid, really terrible I'd imagine nuns largely keep within their own social circle and is a devastating loss to the surviving members . RIP.

RIP

cnocbui · 23-07-2020 02:22AM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Wow, I didn't realise that many people have it!

It might have something to do with the US medical authorities, regularly revising downward the blood pressure ranges assigned to the labels low, normal, high, etc. Of course the fact this leads to massive increases in the sales of statins and other medications is just a very profitable coincidence.

nocoverart · 23-07-2020 02:45AM

Quickly read over some of the older threads from the links here. Very interesting to look back on it. I think we’d be very pleased with where we are now from judging the mood back then. Easy to drowned in the here and now, but the here and now is way more optimistic than the ghosts of the scaremongering boardies past
predicted.

JP Liz V1 · 23-07-2020 02:53AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

HSE Daily Operations Update

14 in hospitals, no change.
1 admission/confirmed case in Drogheda today and 2 overnight in Vincents and Tallaght.
6 in ICU, down by 1.
1 death in the past 24 hours.
4 being ventilated, down by 1.

Is the death the doctor from the Mater, in hospital fighting Covid for 3 months, brave selfless hero, RIP

eagle eye · 23-07-2020 03:17AM

Are we heading back to stage 2? I hope not but hard to know what happens if the R0 increases again.
Have we been given the reasons why it's increasing? Are incomers a big part of it?

JP Liz V1 · 23-07-2020 04:26AM

eagle eye wrote: »

Are we heading back to stage 2? I hope not but hard to know what happens if the R0 increases again.
Have we been given the reasons why it's increasing? Are incomers a big part of it?

I think someone on one of these threads already mentioned clusters increasing it

23-07-2020 06:19AM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Wow, I didn't realise that many people have it!

As we get older arteries stiffen and rates of hypertension consequently rise. There is nothing abnormal in this and is why as we get older risk of heart disease, stroke etc increase. To some however this seems to mean that these people were about to die anyway so the fact they died of COVID is inconsequential.

owlbethere · 23-07-2020 06:29AM

eagle eye wrote: »

Are we heading back to stage 2? I hope not but hard to know what happens if the R0 increases again.
Have we been given the reasons why it's increasing? Are incomers a big part of it?

I think it was reported before about the RO. During lockdown people were meeting less people and the RO declined for that reason.

Now restrictions are lifting, the RO is increasing.

My understanding of the RO as well is that it comes down to the number of people anyone meets in any day or week. So some confirmed people might belong to a cluster that has a small number of cases. Other people might belong to a cluster that has a larger number of people. I think they might give the average RO over all the cases.

We were urged a few weeks ago while the restrictions were lifting to keep the number of our close daily contacts down low. Many people are probably following this advice going forward. It makes sense to continue with reduced social movements for now and hopefully a vaccine will be through later in the year. Other people want to rush back and out to the way life was and socialise as before in crowds. Its these people that will skew the RO into a higher number because of the average over cases.

Dante7 · 23-07-2020 07:55AM

eagle eye wrote: »

Are we heading back to stage 2? I hope not but hard to know what happens if the R0 increases again.
Have we been given the reasons why it's increasing? Are incomers a big part of it?

No.
It's not.
No.

ZX7R · 23-07-2020 08:03AM

I was out and about yesterday tying up a few things before my family and I depart these shores.
I was quite happily surprised by the numbers of people wearing masks there has definitely been a huge uptake in the wearing of them.
It was great to see.

Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

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