Is this the end of Democrat front runner Joe Biden?

02-07-2020 04:47PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

You see, that is my point, is that figure believable...

Very much so, it's pretty consistent with how black voters tend to vote in presidential elections. And Trump makes them even less likely to vote for the GOP.

Silentcorner · 02-07-2020 04:52PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

There's no evidence to suggest that the black vote has splintered - They support the Democrats at about the 85/90% level.

In none of the other examples you list was the lead outside the Margin of error.

Brexit was a dead heat in the polls , Clinton had a ~2% lead overall which was where the National vote ended up and was behind or had razor thin leads in the key swing states , the Trump win was unexpected but the evidence showed it was possible. The last UK election showed the Tories in a clear lead for quite a while so not sure of the source of surprise there.

In this cycle , Biden's lead today is significantly larger than any Clinton ever had in 2016 (at this point in 2016 she was running at about 4/5% ahead) and he currently has leads well outside the margin of error both Nationally and in almost all the key swings states.

It's still 4+ months to go , so everything could change - but right now , Trump is losing and losing badly.

You could be right, I could be wrong, I am paying no attention to media outlets this time round, I was misinformed last time.

Quin_Dub · 02-07-2020 04:53PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

You see, that is my point, is that figure believable...

Deleted User wrote: »

Very much so, it's pretty consistent with how black voters tend to vote in presidential elections. And Trump makes them even less likely to vote for the GOP.

The key measure for Black voters is participation , not voter preference. As a rule they just don't vote GOP in any great numbers , typically low double digits - 10-15% at most.

If they aren't happy with the Democrats , they just don't turn up , they do not vote GOP instead.

Clinton got 80-85% of the black vote , Trump got about 11% if I recall , but the volume of the black vote was well down compared to the Obama years.

So a key thing for Biden is getting the vote out , not winning them over per se.

Silentcorner · 02-07-2020 04:54PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Very much so, it's pretty consistent with how black voters tend to vote in presidential elections. And Trump makes them even less likely to vote for the GOP.

Or so you've been led to believe...if they reach the same employment numbers and wage levels they did last February by November I just can't see it....

KiKi III · 02-07-2020 04:54PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

You see, that is my point, is that figure believable...

96% of black women voted for Hilary. A similar number voted for Doug Jones to oust Roy Moore from office. There’s no evidence the black vote has splintered. The number is slightly lower but still high for black men.

Traditionally, the problem was that while the black community vote Democrat, they don’t always turn out. This year, Stacey Abrahms, Pod Save America, and other Democratic activists have been doing a lot of groundwork on getting voters registered.

In 2016, the Democratic primary went on much longer and was much more divisive, Hilary was a far less popular candidate than Biden, and so far there has been no big reveal like Comey’s unprecedented intervention which wiped out an 11 point lead Hilary had before the election.

Not only this, Trump is failing on all fronts; Covid, race relations, and now a very serious allegation of failing to protect troops in Afghanistan.

He may still win, but it’s looking less and less likely by the day.

ohnonotgmail · 02-07-2020 04:55PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

You could be right, I could be wrong, I am paying no attention to media outlets this time round, I was misinformed last time.

true that you could be right and everybody else wrong. the difference is that everybody else is basing their opinion on the available information. you are basing yours on ...

02-07-2020 04:56PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Or so you've been led to believe...if they reach the same employment numbers and wage levels they did last February by November I just can't see it....

It's based on how the black vote has always gone so not a matter of belief. It stands to reason that Trump will lose votes from black community as much as he is from every demographic. Depending on the numbers from February is a bit meaningless since the pandemic is entirely out of control and likely will continue to be for foreseeable.

Quin_Dub · 02-07-2020 04:57PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

You could be right, I could be wrong, I am paying no attention to media outlets this time round, I was misinformed last time.

Me either, I'm looking at the data.

If Trump can get the gap back to around the 4/5% range and tighten up in the swing states with the Electoral College system he has a shot at winning.

But if it stays out beyond the 6-8% range (it's nearly double that now) I do not believe he can win.

Silentcorner · 02-07-2020 05:05PM

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

true that you could be right and everybody else wrong. the difference is that everybody else is basing their opinion on the available information. you are basing yours on ...

Everyone else who is posting in this thread by the way...which has no moderate opinion of Trump that I can see...I have outlined why I believe that the Democratic Party are headed for the same fate as the UK Labour Party.

It is not an off the wall suggestion when you see what has happened in major cities across the US over the last 6 weeks in particular...

KiKi III · 02-07-2020 05:10PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Everyone else who is posting in this thread by the way...which has no moderate opinion of Trump that I can see...I have outlined why I believe that the Democratic Party are headed for the same fate as the UK Labour Party.

It is not an off the wall suggestion when you see what has happened in major cities across the US over the last 6 weeks in particular...

Why do you think your opinion isn’t being reflected in the polls, even ones by the likes of Fox?

Quin_Dub · 02-07-2020 05:15PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Everyone else who is posting in this thread by the way...which has no moderate opinion of Trump that I can see...I have outlined why I believe that the Democratic Party are headed for the same fate as the UK Labour Party.

It is not an off the wall suggestion when you see what has happened in major cities across the US over the last 6 weeks in particular...

It's not "off the wall" , it absolutely could have a negative impact on the Democrat vote , but there's no evidence in any of the data to show that yet.

If people are angry at the Democrats for recent events , they aren't telling anyone. I know Trump loves to talk about "The Silent Majority" but it simply doesn't exist.

His 2016 win was razor thin but his performance was absolutely in line with the data. The fact that those key swing states were super tight was not in anyway unexpected or surprising.

What was unexpected was that all of those tight races fell his way giving him the narrowest of victories.

This time however, as of now - There are no tight races , Biden has statistically significant leads in more than enough states to win the Electoral college by a fairly comfortable margin.

Trump has time to change that , but he needs to start doing it now if he hopes to be in the fight on Election night.

Silentcorner · 02-07-2020 05:34PM

KiKi III wrote: »

Why do you think your opinion isn’t being reflected in the polls, even ones by the likes of Fox?

Because when it comes to this election all bets are off...the pandemic will have had a profound effect on people, the nationwide riots and protests will have also affected people...if you were a moderate democrat voter living in Seattle/Chicago/New York/LA etc who has bought a gun in the last 3 months for himself and his wife because he no longer trusts his Democrat Mayor to protect him and his family do you think he will vote Democrat again?

You could lose your job if you signal support for Trump in this climate.

So, the sands have completely shifted and in that case, the polls and politicians will be last to pick up on it...the media companies are so far removed from reality they are almost irrelevant.

Silentcorner · 02-07-2020 05:37PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

It's not "off the wall" , it absolutely could have a negative impact on the Democrat vote , but there's no evidence in any of the data to show that yet.

If people are angry at the Democrats for recent events , they aren't telling anyone. I know Trump loves to talk about "The Silent Majority" but it simply doesn't exist.

His 2016 win was razor thin but his performance was absolutely in line with the data. The fact that those key swing states were super tight was not in anyway unexpected or surprising.

What was unexpected was that all of those tight races fell his way giving him the narrowest of victories.

This time however, as of now - There are no tight races , Biden has statistically significant leads in more than enough states to win the Electoral college by a fairly comfortable margin.

Trump has time to change that , but he needs to start doing it now if he hopes to be in the fight on Election night.

But that is just it, they are silent, they have existed in the past in the US...in the very recent past in the UK...if there was ever going to be such a thing as a silent majority, this election is it.

KiKi III · 02-07-2020 05:42PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Because when it comes to this election all bets are off...the pandemic will have had a profound effect on people, the nationwide riots and protests will have also affected people...if you were a moderate democrat voter living in Seattle/Chicago/New York/LA etc who has bought a gun in the last 3 months for himself and his wife because he no longer trusts his Democrat Mayor to protect him and his family do you think he will vote Democrat again?

I think you’re massively overplaying the impact of the protests compared with COVID. About 25 people died across America during the riots and it’s already old news; 130,000 have died of COVID and that number is only going to increase between now and November. This now includes thousands of people aged 35-65. Each of those 130,000 had family and friends.

If I was a moderate Democrat I’d absolutely vote for Biden over Trump.

Tell me how · 02-07-2020 05:50PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

But that is just it, they are silent, they have existed in the past in the US...in the very recent past in the UK...if there was ever going to be such a thing as a silent majority, this election is it.

Why, there has been rarely been as active political conversations in the lead up to elections as a consequence of both Trumps performance over the 4 years, but also the Covid-19 pandemic and the BLM protests.

CNN, FOX, MSNBC have all had record viewer numbers over the last 1/4, the US populace hasn't been as engaged in the conversation probably since post 911.

So why should this lead to a silent majority, in this instance, at this time, if they are/were the majority, why wouldn't they make their views public?

Silentcorner · 02-07-2020 05:52PM

KiKi III wrote: »

I think you’re massively overplaying the impact of the protests compared with COVID. About 25 people died across America during the riots and it’s already old news; 130,000 have died of COVID and that number is only going to increase between now and November. This now includes thousands of people aged 35-65. Each of those 130,000 had family and friends.

If I was a moderate Democrat I’d absolutely vote for Biden over Trump.

I think you are massively underplaying it....do not underestimate the level of genuine fear it must have taken to drive people (many of whom would have never have dreamed of owning a gun previously) out to buy a gun...I'd imagine riffle ranges are packed with men and women who are no longer feeling secure....and with good reason.

Imagine how you would feel if you felt the need to carry a gun for the first time in your life.

The news cycle is irrelevant....it is completely irrelevant, the same news cycle that told everyone to stay home to the point of shaming them...except for the nationwide BLM protests/riots...which they more or less cheered on...they are losing viewers.

KiKi III · 02-07-2020 06:08PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

I think you are massively underplaying it....do not underestimate the level of genuine fear it must have taken to drive people (many of whom would have never have dreamed of owning a gun previously) out to buy a gun...I'd imagine riffle ranges are packed with men and women who are no longer feeling secure....and with good reason.

Imagine how you would feel if you felt the need to carry a gun for the first time in your life.

The news cycle is irrelevant....it is completely irrelevant, the same news cycle that told everyone to stay home to the point of shaming them...except for the nationwide BLM protests/riots...which they more or less cheered on...they are losing viewers.

Do you have any data to back up these stories you’re conjuring up? How do you know middle aged women who previously voted Democrat are the ones buying guns? Seems more likely Republican 2nd amendment fanatics were the ones out on a spree.

Tell me how · 02-07-2020 06:12PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

The news cycle is irrelevant....it is completely irrelevant, the same news cycle that told everyone to stay home to the point of shaming them...except for the nationwide BLM protests/riots...which they more or less cheered on...they are losing viewers.

That is Fake News.

All three major cable news networks set ratings records in the second quarter of 2020, as ongoing stories including the coronavirus pandemic and racial justice protests drove viewers to Fox News, CNN and MSNBC.

The three channels recorded double-digit gains over the same period in 2019 in total viewers and adults 25-54. All three also delivered their biggest viewer tallies ever in both total-day averages and in primetime.

Podge_irl · 02-07-2020 06:21PM

In every gun-buying splurge in the past, the vast majority of the guns have been bought by people who are already gun owners. Record gun sales in and of themselves mean absolutely nothing.

Trump's previous election was surprising, but given a state-by-state breakdown such as the one done by 538 had him at about 30% odds it was far from shocking. Events with 30% odds happen pretty frequently after all.

Silentcorner · 02-07-2020 06:21PM

KiKi III wrote: »

Do you have any data to back up these stories you’re conjuring up? How do you know middle aged women who previously voted Democrat are the ones buying guns? Seems more likely Republican 2nd amendment fanatics were the ones out on a spree.

Ok...stay in your NYT bubble they'll keep you informed I've no doubt!

https://news.sky.com/story/uncertainty-and-fear-fuel-record-surge-in-us-gun-ownership-applications-12019315

Timberrrrrrrr · 02-07-2020 06:24PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Ok...stay in your NYT bubble they'll keep you informed I've no doubt!

https://news.sky.com/story/uncertainty-and-fear-fuel-record-surge-in-us-gun-ownership-applications-12019315

where in that article does it state that it's Dems buying the guns?

ohnonotgmail · 02-07-2020 06:24PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Ok...stay in your NYT bubble they'll keep you informed I've no doubt!

https://news.sky.com/story/uncertainty-and-fear-fuel-record-surge-in-us-gun-ownership-applications-12019315

where in the article does it say who is buying these guns? it is existing gun owners, new gun owners, democrats, republicans, males, females, young, old? without that information how can you draw any conclusions?

Silentcorner · 02-07-2020 06:30PM

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

where in the article does it say who is buying these guns? it is existing gun owners, new gun owners, democrats, republicans, males, females, young, old? without that information how can you draw any conclusions?

40% of purchasers are first time gun owners, it is reported in the article you read.

It's not a poll so it doesn't get into that kind of depth...but it doesn't take a genius to figure it out!

Defunding police forces is going to have a reaction and a continued reaction as the consequences of it are born out in the crime stats.

ohnonotgmail · 02-07-2020 06:32PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

40% of purchasers are first time gun owners, it is reported in the article you read.

It's not a poll so it doesn't get into that kind of depth...but it doesn't take a genius to figure it out!

Defunding police forces is going to have a reaction and a continued reaction as the consequences of it are born out in the crime stats.

so you dont know if they are democrats or republicans so you cannot say what effect this might have on the election

Silentcorner · 02-07-2020 06:34PM

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

so you dont know if they are democrats or republicans so you cannot say what effect this might have on the election

Ya your probably right...$100s of millions worth of urban destruction, riots, pulling down statues, protests and a surge in gun sales probably will have no impact in the election in just over 4 months.

Tell me how · 02-07-2020 06:36PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

Ya your probably right...$100s of millions worth of urban destruction, riots, pulling down statues, protests and a surge in gun sales probably will have no impact in the election in just over 4 months.

It will, when people think about the guy who fanned the flames by saying they didn't have legitimate grievances, and begged state governors to get tough with protesters and violently interrupted peaceful protesters for a photo op.

It'll definitely have an impact.

KiKi III · 02-07-2020 06:42PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

40% of purchasers are first time gun owners, it is reported in the article you read.

It's not a poll so it doesn't get into that kind of depth...but it doesn't take a genius to figure it out!

Defunding police forces is going to have a reaction and a continued reaction as the consequences of it are born out in the crime stats.

It’s gas how you’ll make fun of me for reading one of the most respected news organisations on the planet, while you just make stuff up off the top of your head and expect us to find it credible.

Timberrrrrrrr · 02-07-2020 06:43PM

KiKi III wrote: »

It’s gas how you’ll make fun of me for reading one of the most respected news organisations on the planet, while you just make stuff up off the top of your head and expect us to find it credible.

And then links to sky news :pac:

Podge_irl · 02-07-2020 06:47PM

Silentcorner wrote: »

40% of purchasers are first time gun owners, it is reported in the article you read.

No, there is a quote from a representative of a gun industry lobby saying they have estimated that 40% of purchasers are first time gun owners without any indication of where they are getting the numbers from.

Maybe the issue isn't the media, but your understanding of what they are actually saying?

02-07-2020 06:54PM

Basically whenever the second amendment gets a mention, it tends to result in gun owners buying even more guns so it's not exactly surprising. I would be pretty doubtful that such a large sum are first time buyers.

Is this the end of Democrat front runner Joe Biden?

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