Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - Read OP for Mod Warnings

24-06-2020 08:29AM

20silkcut wrote: »

Whether there was lockdowns or not the vast majority of people changed their behaviour in some way. Even those who were sceptical of the dangers.
I know lots of people who were outwardly totally dismissive of the virus but still kept 2 metres away from others and weren’t exactly licking door knobs.
Subconsciously the message got through. Some people just like to take contrarian positions.
But the human body is inclined towards self preservation regardless of what the mind thinks or says.

And thats all great, but social distancing was also factored in.

Millions didn't die like the models and experts predicted. Thankfully.

24-06-2020 08:49AM

20silkcut wrote: »

Whether there was lockdowns or not the vast majority of people changed their behaviour in some way. Even those who were sceptical of the dangers.
I know lots of people who were outwardly totally dismissive of the virus but still kept 2 metres away from others and weren’t exactly licking door knobs.
Subconsciously the message got through. Some people just like to take contrarian positions.
But the human body is inclined towards self preservation regardless of what the mind thinks or says.

We are not allowed lick doorknobs? NPHET nazis!

The HorsesMouth · 24-06-2020 08:50AM

Just had a quick look at that Tomàs Ryan article. He says we need to follow countries that have eliminated the virus like New Zealand, Greece, Norway. But I just had a quick look at Greece and they are having 15/20 cases a day still. New Zealand have had 1 or 2 new case everyday too. Have we not basically done the same thing or am I missing something here?!
New Zealand have shown that it is impossible to live in a normal working and open economy without the threat of the virus close by.

is_that_so · 24-06-2020 08:54AM

The HorsesMouth wrote: »

Just had a quick look at that Tomàs Ryan article. He says we need to follow countries that have eliminated the virus like New Zealand, Greece, Norway. But I just had a quick look at Greece and they are having 15/20 cases a day still. New Zealand have had 1 or 2 new case everyday too. Have we not basically done the same thing or am I missing something here?!
New Zealand have shown that it is impossible to live in a normal working and open economy without the threat of the virus close by.

New Zealand did trumpet their success only to undo it themselves by not applying the quarantine properly. The rest are living with the virus as will we. NZ is also not really a good model as it is geographically isolated with low population density.

The HorsesMouth · 24-06-2020 08:59AM

is_that_so wrote: »

New Zealand did trumpet their success only to undo it themselves by not applying the quarantine properly. The rest are living with the virus as will we. NZ is also not really a good model as it is geographically isolated with low population density.

Yes exactly. Which is why I don't understand Ryan using these countries as examples?! IMO it is impossible to eliminate the virus and keep it eliminated while lifting restrictions. Keeping it under a low level and shielding the elderly and vulnerable is the only way to manage it.

20silkcut · 24-06-2020 09:06AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

And thats all great, but social distancing was also factored in.

Millions didn't die like the models and experts predicted. Thankfully.

That may be so but I’d imagine personal behaviour and the effects of repeated messaging is much harder to factor in.

is_that_so · 24-06-2020 09:17AM

The HorsesMouth wrote: »

Yes exactly. Which is why I don't understand Ryan using these countries as examples?! IMO it is impossible to eliminate the virus and keep it eliminated while lifting restrictions. Keeping it under a low level and shielding the elderly and vulnerable is the only way to manage it.

For examples we should look to South Korea and Germany where they dealt with very large numbers and continue to manage new outbreaks well.

Assetbacked · 24-06-2020 09:17AM

MickeyLeari wrote: »

You can read his views here https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/tomás-ryan-is-ireland-s-strategy-to-live-with-or-eliminate-coronavirus-1.4274877

He is a “crush the curver”. This also means “crush the economy” which is definitely very much against the narrative here.

It's very likely that he is loving the attention and therefore can no longer see the wood from the trees. Crush the curve approach means he should be silenced at this point, how do people take that view seriously? Well, I already know the answer to that.

24-06-2020 09:23AM

Some detailed analysis here of how lockdown worked

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-should-we-aim-for-herd-immunity-like-sweden-b1de3348e88b

Muscles Schultz · 24-06-2020 09:26AM

I think the 2 week quarantine will be lifted for people arriving in Eire. The Dept of Foreign Affairs advisory against travel will remain for some time though.

Ginger n Lemon · 24-06-2020 09:36AM

20silkcut wrote: »

Whether there was lockdowns or not the vast majority of people changed their behaviour in some way. Even those who were sceptical of the dangers.
I know lots of people who were outwardly totally dismissive of the virus but still kept 2 metres away from others and weren’t exactly licking door knobs.
Subconsciously the message got through. Some people just like to take contrarian positions.
But the human body is inclined towards self preservation regardless of what the mind thinks or says.

That there in bold is the single thing I hoped someone supportive of lockdowns would say here.

Look, its extremely obvious shutting down woodies or IKEA didnt crush the curve or even flattened it, it was the change in human behaviour.

Thats why Japan, a country of 100,000,000 + barely have 1 k dead from covid. They changed their behaviour.

It took us Irish a little longer to change our behaviour hence even though we shut down 75% of businesses on 16th of March, we still had over 1.6k die subsequently in next 2 months, with covid.

If you think that shutting down TKmaxxs all over the country helped to flatten the curve, you need to have a bit more critical thinking.

Ginger n Lemon · 24-06-2020 09:49AM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Going to Barcelona end of Aug.

Berlin trip still possible but depends on my other half. As is my holiday plans are irrelevant, Ryanair, Aer Lingus offering flights to EU countries 1 July onward. There is a reason for that. Reason being covid not being treated like ebola in modern EU countries, unlike Irish media.

In fact, France welcome non EU individuals 1 July onward, an advanced EU country.

Just as I said that..... race against time

The Government is coming under pressure to reduce the social distancing rule for airports to one metre when it decides to ease air travel restrictions.

It comes as a State-appointed taskforce warned Ireland is "at risk of being set adrift" if it does not lift restrictions on airline passengers.

Ahead of a Cabinet meeting on non-essential air travel, it has emerged Dublin Airport Authority (DAA) warned people will face "extended and complex" queues if the two-metre rule is not reduced.

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/passengers-face-queue-nightmare-at-airports-if-two-metre-rule-stays-39311305.html

Never easy is it :pac:

Hurrache · 24-06-2020 10:04AM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

The Government is coming under pressure to reduce the social distancing rule for airports to one metre when it decides to ease air travel restrictions.

In other breaking news, pubs want you to come and spend money in them.

Seriously, they're business lobby groups, it would be more odd if they didn't go looking for these things, almost as odd as you not putting in your silly bold lines randomly.

average_runner · 24-06-2020 10:05AM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Just as I said that..... race against time

The Government is coming under pressure to reduce the social distancing rule for airports to one metre when it decides to ease air travel restrictions.

It comes as a State-appointed taskforce warned Ireland is "at risk of being set adrift" if it does not lift restrictions on airline passengers.

Ahead of a Cabinet meeting on non-essential air travel, it has emerged Dublin Airport Authority (DAA) warned people will face "extended and complex" queues if the two-metre rule is not reduced.

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/passengers-face-queue-nightmare-at-airports-if-two-metre-rule-stays-39311305.html

Never easy is it :pac:

Berlin has cancelled most of its big outdoor events for Sept.

We can look at dropping to 1 metre after the pubs open and we don't see a spike. I don't care if people face a long complex queue, its their choice to fly, so suck it up.

One thing i have noticed, our campsites are ahead of the European ones.
Kids club going ahead while not in France, Spain and Italy.

Pete_Cavan · 24-06-2020 10:15AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

He covers it a lot more in detail in the podcast, that opening up too soon is even worse for the economy when we inevitably start seeing a rise in cases. I hope he's wrong but i trust an expert more than the folks on here claiming it's over already.

And what about actual experiences of countries, do you trust the expert more than that? Switzerland has had schools, bars, restaurants, hairdressers, etc open since 11 May and cases have been steady, 10 - 50 each day. Thousands of people back working, money circulating in the economy, people getting treated and screened for other illnesses etc. Borders are open now as well. The evidence is that with precautions in place, reopening doesn't lead to rises in cases, nevermind exponential growth again. This is the actual experiment happening in practice, these theories seem to be based on no evidence at all.

average_runner · 24-06-2020 10:21AM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

And what about actual experiences of countries, do you trust the expert more than that? Switzerland has had schools, bars, restaurants, hairdressers, etc open since 11 May and cases have been steady, 10 - 50 each day. Thousands of people back working, money circulating in the economy, people getting treated and screened for other illnesses etc. Borders are open now as well. The evidence is that with precautions in place, reopening doesn't lead to rises in cases, nevermind exponential growth again. This is the actual experiment happening in practice, these theories seem to be based on no evidence at all.

Switzerland didnt have the same number of cases or deaths per million we had.

Switerzland has a very high indirect tax rate that pays for their top health care, something we don't have. If we had a world class health care system, then we could move quicker, we don't

Also do some more research, they are only lifting the remaining of their restrictions this week and reducing to 1.5 meters after that, but we want 1 meter

"From Monday 22, events drawing up to 1,000 people will be allowed (as opposed to 300 at present), provided contact tracing can be guaranteed. Only gatherings of more than 1,000 remain banned until the end of August. Restrictions on when businesses such as bars and restaurants can be open will also be lifted. People will no longer be required to sit down inside."

Ginger n Lemon · 24-06-2020 10:41AM

average_runner wrote: »

Switzerland didnt have the same number of cases or deaths per million we had.

Switerzland has a very high indirect tax rate that pays for their top health care, something we don't have. If we had a world class health care system, then we could move quicker, we don't

Also do some more research, they are only lifting the remaining of their restrictions this week and reducing to 1.5 meters after that, but we want 1 meter

"From Monday 22, events drawing up to 1,000 people will be allowed (as opposed to 300 at present), provided contact tracing can be guaranteed. Only gatherings of more than 1,000 remain banned until the end of August. Restrictions on when businesses such as bars and restaurants can be open will also be lifted. People will no longer be required to sit down inside."

You just really dont want to admit Ireland is going to be the last country in EU to lift restrictions and the last to send children back to school do you? Why?

Every post from you is "yeah that country actually isnt doing that well" "we are similar to that country in terms of re opening". "that country is ahead of us on peak of covid cases"

Name another EU country that as of today has barbers closed? And this can be said for many business sectors. We are just an absolute embarrassment on EU front.

24-06-2020 10:50AM

I think a lot of people just need to get a little bit of perspective in relation to Covid 19.

In just the last 24 hours, I've heard people saying Covid can cause brain damage, loss of limbs, long term lung issues, Coma, Strokes, major organ failure. Perhaps there are a tiny few cases like this that likely also includes other underlying conditions.

Its important to remember how rare these things occur though. There are over 9M cases worldwide. If even 9 people lost a limb thats still a 1 in million chance of it happening to a person with covid.

If you read all the potential side effects on some medications, you'd probably never touch them at all.

It might not sell newspapers or generate clicks, but the fact remains that most people that get Covid will only experience very mild symptoms and make a full speedy recovery.

Pete_Cavan · 24-06-2020 11:17AM

average_runner wrote: »

Switzerland didnt have the same number of cases or deaths per million we had.

Switerzland has a very high indirect tax rate that pays for their top health care, something we don't have. If we had a world class health care system, then we could move quicker, we don't

Also do some more research, they are only lifting the remaining of their restrictions this week and reducing to 1.5 meters after that, but we want 1 meter

"From Monday 22, events drawing up to 1,000 people will be allowed (as opposed to 300 at present), provided contact tracing can be guaranteed. Only gatherings of more than 1,000 remain banned until the end of August. Restrictions on when businesses such as bars and restaurants can be open will also be lifted. People will no longer be required to sit down inside."

You don't have to tell me about Switzerland, I am there! Can't return to Ireland because doing so would mean quarantining for two weeks. Quite happy here anyway, have been going to cafes and bars since 11th of May, got haircut, public transport in full swing, outdoor swimming pools are open now, etc.

Switzerland doesn't count every death where Covid-19 was a factor but not necessarily the cause of death, whereas Ireland even counts suspected cases in deaths so possibly over-counting. Even the best health system in the world doesn't stop cases from occurring. Cases have been steady despite reopening six weeks ago, there is nothing to suggest that it would be any different in Ireland.

Penfailed · 24-06-2020 11:19AM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

We are just an absolute embarrassment on EU front.

That line gets mentioned a lot. Who's embarrassed? I'm not. The Irish government? I'm pretty sure they aren't either. If they were, they have no confidence in their own decisions.

s1ippy · 24-06-2020 11:24AM

MickeyLeari wrote: »

The same beasty who said this on another thread in response to a question on the advisory Irish quarantine. I will probably cop a ban for this but this was an incredible reaction to a question:

And that means you should be staying indoors for 14 days. You should certainly not cycling outdoors during those 14 days. It's not a matter of whether the rules are enforced - it's your responsibility to observe them. If you do not wish to do so, stay out of Ireland. If you do you will be being incredibly selfish as well as breaching Irish rules

When did cycling and minding your own business lead to a risk on Covid. Even the doomsdayers and most pessimistic medics are not arguing this. How many livelihoods are dependent on tourism? If someone was looking to have coppers reopened to dance to New York New York at the end of the night while wishing to transmit the virus such a response might be ok but this is nuts.

If you actually read that thread, the person was coming from the UK and planning on heading off cycling around whatever county had the misfortune of being their destination. If everybody from the UK decided that it was open season and they were going on a cycling holiday around Irish counties, quarantine be damned, we would be absolutely swarming with the virus. No thanks.

Assetbacked · 24-06-2020 11:43AM

Deleted User wrote: »

I think a lot of people just need to get a little bit of perspective in relation to Covid 19.

In just the last 24 hours, I've heard people saying Covid can cause brain damage, loss of limbs, long term lung issues, Coma, Strokes, major organ failure. Perhaps there are a tiny few cases like this that likely also includes other underlying conditions.

Its important to remember how rare these things occur though. There are over 9M cases worldwide. If even 9 people lost a limb thats still a 1 in million chance of it happening to a person with covid.

If you read all the potential side effects on some medications, you'd probably never touch them at all.

It might not sell newspapers or generate clicks, but the fact remains that most people that get Covid will only experience very mild symptoms and make a full speedy recovery.

Don't say that on Twitter! You'll disrupt the orgy of those that are not ready to let covid go as of yet; in particular, some data nerds getting hard ons constructing the different data about cases, deaths etc, utilising their own software, algorithms and graphs. They don't want to be told that actually it's not that serious for the vast majority of people and, further, that it is pretty much dead in Ireland.

dundalkfc10 · 24-06-2020 12:00PM

Penfailed wrote: »

That line gets mentioned a lot. Who's embarrassed? I'm not. The Irish government? I'm pretty sure they aren't either. If they were, they have no confidence in their own decisions.

Was it not because was no confidence in the Govt (Harris the scumbag in particular) that we had a general election?

charlie14 · 24-06-2020 12:02PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Okay. You have no response or clue about sample size. Moving on

I didn`t say I didn`t know the sample size.
I asked you did you understand how sampling work ?
As you appear to believe in Sweden`s case, testing for antibodies would need to be carried out on the entire population to be anyway accurate you obviously do not.

Strange that from someone who was adamant that Sweden`s modelling figures on antibodies were so accurate that herd immunity was imminent that you are now questioning the antibody figures of 6.1% from Sweden`s own Public Health Agency.

I do get why you wish to move on though.
With you being at one stage such a cheerleader for Sweden`s strategy now railing against Imperial College modelling figures, when the Sweden modelling figures you swallowed hook line and sinker have been shown to be even further out than those of Imperial College, I can see being somewhat embarrassing for you.

Penfailed · 24-06-2020 12:03PM

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

Was it not because was no confidence in the Govt (Harris the scumbag in particular) that we had a general election?

What's that got to do with them having confidence in their own decisions?

Ginger n Lemon · 24-06-2020 12:07PM

charlie14 wrote: »

I didn`t say I didn`t know the sample size.
I asked you did you understand how sampling work ?
As you appear to believe in Sweden`s case, testing for antibodies would need to be carried out on the entire population to be anyway accurate you obviously do not.

Strange that from someone who was adamant that Sweden`s modelling figures on antibodies were so accurate that herd immunity was imminent that you are now questioning the antibody figures of 6.1% from Sweden`s own Public Health Agency.

I do get why you wish to move on though.
With you being at one stage such a cheerleader for Sweden`s strategy now railing against Imperial College modelling figures, when the Sweden modelling figures you swallowed hook line and sinker have been shown to be even further out than those of Imperial College, I can see being somewhat embarrassing for you.

Ive asked you a direct question - do you know the sample size used in that 6% antibodies test?

And all you keeping coming back with are questions of whether I know how sampling works. Do you not see a flaw here? You cant answer a simple question.

I will ask for the 3rd time, do you know the sample size in that 6% antibodies test? Any further deflection will really lead me to believe that sample size used was 5-10k people, and make your whole story of 6% antibodies seem quite insignificant.

Hence - moving on if you cant provide sample size.

Ginger n Lemon · 24-06-2020 12:12PM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

You don't have to tell me about Switzerland, I am there! Can't return to Ireland because doing so would mean quarantining for two weeks. Quite happy here anyway, have been going to cafes and bars since 11th of May, got haircut, public transport in full swing, outdoor swimming pools are open now, etc.

Switzerland doesn't count every death where Covid-19 was a factor but not necessarily the cause of death, whereas Ireland even counts suspected cases in deaths so possibly over-counting. Even the best health system in the world doesn't stop cases from occurring. Cases have been steady despite reopening six weeks ago, there is nothing to suggest that it would be any different in Ireland.

Lets face it - not possibly but definitely over counting. This will be very clear at December 2020 when amount of deaths will be the same as 2018 and 2019. And people will say "yeah well we had restrictions so thats why deaths have remained the same" - except for, if 1700 truly died directly because of covid, you'd expect a 5% increase on 2019 death toll.

But people are in denial, and will keep posting rubbish that "oh we need to wait 6 months until June 2021 to find out real number of deaths for 2020 because people have up to 6 months to submit death certificates" etc. :rolleyes:

24-06-2020 12:36PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Ive asked you a direct question - do you know the sample size used in that 6% antibodies test?

And all you keeping coming back with are questions of whether I know how sampling works. Do you not see a flaw here? You cant answer a simple question.

I will ask for the 3rd time, do you know the sample size in that 6% antibodies test? Any further deflection will really lead me to believe that sample size used was 5-10k people, and make your whole story of 6% antibodies seem quite insignificant.

Hence - moving on if you cant provide sample size.

For a sample size of 5,000 and 6% found to have antibodies you have a 95% confidence that the true rate is between 5.3% and 6.7%. For only 1,000 samples its a 95% confidence that the true rate is between 4.6% and 7.7%. If you think having only 5-10k samples invalidates the data you clearly don't understand how sampling works

24-06-2020 12:36PM

Stolen from the main thread. WW article: Local man disappointed by the drop in cases lol

https://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2020/06/23/local-man-a-bit-disappointed-by-the-drop-in-cases-if-hes-being-honest/

Ginger n Lemon · 24-06-2020 12:39PM

Deleted User wrote: »

For a sample size of 5,000 and 6% found to have antibodies you have a 95% confidence that the true rate is between 5.3% and 6.7%. For only 1,000 samples its a 95% confidence that the true rate is between 4.6% and 7.7%. If you think having only 5-10k samples invalidates the data you clearly don't understand how sampling works

:rolleyes: No hope.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Comments

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - Read OP for Mod Warnings