Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

bettyoleary

bettyoleary wrote: »

What do you actually mean by that??? Why do you expect nurses to deal with this again when business men have made a few more million and escape to a covid free place. Outrageous. NURSES LIVES MATTER

Well not to be too cruel - its their job.

Captain_Crash

charlie14 wrote: »

Dublin. April 2020 1,200. April average 690.
Monaghan April 2020 80. April average 31.
Cavan April 2020 125. April average 54.


To simplify April 2020. Death notices in those three counties 1,405.
Average April death in total for those three counties prior to Coronavirus 715.
Sheer coincidence

I kind of agree with where the other poster is coming from. There is no doubt there is an excess of deaths in April 2020 compared with previous April's. But comparing month for month isn't appropriate considering the demographic of deaths.

We know about 70% of deaths are in nursing/care homes, residents of which have an average stay of only 5 months. So taking just this data point into account, its reasonable to say many of these people will now not be dying later in the year as they are sadly already dead.

Like the CMO said, he doesn't expect an excess mortality rate for the year. It will be interesting in a few years to see the number of deaths between 2015-2019 compared against 2020-2024. If I was a betting man, I'd say 20/24 is slightly higher, but with a caveat... the increase wont be from covid, but a result of not having cancer screenings for what will likely have been a 5 month period.

charlie14

Captain_Crash wrote: »

I kind of agree with where the other poster is coming from. There is no doubt there is an excess of deaths in April 2020 compared with previous April's. But comparing month for month isn't appropriate considering the demographic of deaths.

We know about 70% of deaths are in nursing/care homes, residents of which have an average stay of only 5 months. So taking just this data point into account, its reasonable to say many of these people will now not be dying later in the year as they are sadly already dead.

Like the CMO said, he doesn't expect an excess mortality rate for the year. It will be interesting in a few years to see the number of deaths between 2015-2019 compared against 2020-2024. If I was a betting man, I'd say 20/24 is slightly higher, but with a caveat... the increase wont be from covid, but a result of not having cancer screenings for what will likely have been a 5 month period.

As I said, provided we keep the levels low it may not show many more deaths on a yearly basis.


What those figures clearly show however is that before lockdown kicked in, and numbers started reducing, for those three counties deaths were double the monthly average for April where there is no other feasible explanation for other than Covid-19.

Pete_Cavan

Captain_Crash wrote: »

I kind of agree with where the other poster is coming from. There is no doubt there is an excess of deaths in April 2020 compared with previous April's. But comparing month for month isn't appropriate considering the demographic of deaths.

We know about 70% of deaths are in nursing/care homes, residents of which have an average stay of only 5 months. So taking just this data point into account, its reasonable to say many of these people will now not be dying later in the year as they are sadly already dead.

Like the CMO said, he doesn't expect an excess mortality rate for the year. It will be interesting in a few years to see the number of deaths between 2015-2019 compared against 2020-2024. If I was a betting man, I'd say 20/24 is slightly higher, but with a caveat... the increase wont be from covid, but a result of not having cancer screenings for what will likely have been a 5 month period.

Yes, I made that point a couple of times before. The other side of it though is how many will die in the years to come due to later diagnosis and treatment of all the other diseases and illnesses, both physical and mental, which have been allowed to fester for months? We had long waiting lists already, God knows what they are like now. The lockdown saved lifes, up to a point, but the prolonged lockdown is likely to cost lives.

stephenjmcd

Only article I could find on this without a paywall

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0624/1149341-cso-covid19-survey/

As many have been saying here for a while compliance is falling
"59.9% of the CSO's survey respondents rated their personal compliance with government advice and guidelines as high, compared to 80.6% in April. "

This would also be concerning, shows the need to be out and active now.

"Today's survey also reveals that 40.9% of participants said their weight had increased since the implementation of Covid-19 restrictions."

Pete_Cavan

charlie14 wrote: »

As I said, provided we keep the levels low it may not show many more deaths on a yearly basis.


What those figures clearly show however is that before lockdown kicked in, and numbers started reducing, for those three counties deaths were double the monthly average for April where there is no other feasible explanation for other than Covid-19.

Yes those excess deaths in April were certainly Covid-19. But this thread is about restrictions and based on other countries which reopened earlier, the evidence suggests that our prolonged restrictions have not made much difference, certainly not a second wave or anything like that. I don't think many are arguing against the restrictions imposed during March and April and even into May (those that are are outliers) yet those supporting the the length of our restrictions always seem to go back to April deaths. That doesn't address the suggestion that we could have and should have eased restrictions faster in May.The evidence from other countries supports that.

bettyoleary

Deleted User wrote: »

Well not to be too cruel - its their job.

Well pay them.Simple as much as TDS why not? Can you say why. They are not handmaidens unfortunately

Pete_Cavan

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Yes those excess deaths in April were certainly Covid-19. But this thread is about restrictions and based on other countries which reopened earlier, the evidence suggests that our prolonged restrictions have not made much difference, certainly not a second wave or anything like that. I don't think many are arguing against the restrictions imposed during March and April and even into May (those that are are outliers) yet those supporting the the length of our restrictions always seem to go back to April deaths. That doesn't address the suggestion that we could have and should have eased restrictions faster in May.The evidence from other countries supports that.

By waiting till we got to the lower level, we will not require as severe an action if a resurgence were to occur. Notice for those ready to pounce, i said if not when

NotMOL

Goldengirl wrote: »

And Nicola Sturgeon announced today that barbers and hairdressers in Scotland would reopen there on 15 th July ...
Ours are open since this week !

But the lockdown in the UK started after ours

Goldengirl

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Well not to be too cruel - its their job.

Ooh that's not fair.
We are in the firing line out there ..and here too it seems

When a lot of others can't or won't go to to work until it's safe to do so , nurses, doctors , healthcare workers , gardaí , emergency services and essential retail had no choice.

Not saying we are heroes but still no choice but to be out in the midst of a pandemic , and it was not easy or just another working day .

Goldengirl

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Yes, I made that point a couple of times before. The other side of it though is how many will die in the years to come due to later diagnosis and treatment of all the other diseases and illnesses, both physical and mental, which have been allowed to fester for months? We had long waiting lists already, God knows what they are like now. The lockdown saved lifes, up to a point, but the prolonged lockdown is likely to cost lives.

We have had more than 6 months delays in cancer screening and diagnosis and mental health care for years though .
It won't skew the figures as much as some are saying as a result .
Having said that , it is not good enough , and the HSE should be doubling up on efforts to catch up .
However capacity due to continuing safety precautions will likely reduce services to 30 % capacity for the foreseeable future , it is believed.
Now is the time we need the private hospitals to help with this , imo.

Ginger n Lemon

setanta1984 wrote: »

Everywhere else in the EU. https://reopen.europa.eu/en/map/IRL

Damn that was good

is_that_so

Some good news on cervical screening, back next month from Monday 6th.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0624/1149381-coronavirus-covid19-ireland/

Ginger n Lemon

charlie14 wrote: »

Again, why is it the wrong thread ?
Because it shows the hypocrisy of ranting about modelling figures from one source when modelling figures you were such a cheerleader for were even further off the mark

I did answer your question. You`re just in denial as it doesn`t suit your agenda.

I didn`t ask were you NOW going to Sweden.
I asked were you the poster who said on another thread you were going there on holiday`s THIS YEAR because they would have sorted their Covid-19 situation long before anywhere else.

No. No I am not that poster.

I did post below though, when you were ranting how terrible Sweden are and how nobody will ever go there

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-52930886/coronavirus-the-tourists-swapping-lockdown-for-sweden

:rolleyes:

Ginger n Lemon

5 new cases today.

:rolleyes:

reduce 2 metre to 1 meter, open up every bloody business in the country on Monday 29th of June. And you know, get back working for crying out.

Goldengirl

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

No. No I am not that poster. You spent too much time in that thread./url]

:rolleyes:

This ! From you , lol , 🀣

Ginger n Lemon

Goldengirl wrote: »

This ! From you , lol , ��

Listen, you got me a 48 hour cooldown there last week. Do you mind not quoting any of my posts and not actually interacting with me at all?

I would appreciate that greatly. PS read the post again.

Goldengirl

Maybe apply the same advice to yourself and you won't be getting banned.
I got a 48hr ban too , but I am not so childish as to say it was your fault , two of us involved .
Ignored from now on .

Tokyo

Mod: Goldengirl, Ginger n Lemon - put each other on ignore. Next post from either of you directed towards the other in any CA thread will earn both of you a permanent threadban from said thread.

TaurenDruid

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

5 new cases today.

:rolleyes:

reduce 2 metre to 1 meter, open up every bloody business in the country on Monday 29th of June. And you know, get back working for crying out.

Six new deaths today. Don't forget that bit. Even if it doesn't agree with your narrative, it's the headline.

charlie14

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

No. No I am not that poster.

I did post below though, when you were ranting how terrible Sweden are and how nobody will ever go there

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-52930886/coronavirus-the-tourists-swapping-lockdown-for-sweden

:rolleyes:

LOL. A few British idiots visiting Sweden for a beer and a haircut where even the British barber in Sweden thinks they are idiots.
What is that supposed to prove.


Other than an attempt to deflect that the strategy you were cheerleader for and whose modelling figures on immunity you were so sure on were further out than Imperial College`s that you have been banging on about that is

charlie14

NotMOL wrote: »

But the lockdown in the UK started after ours

True, but then again they did play around too long with the Sweden strategy.
Had they not then their death toll would in all likelihood have been lower.

MickeyLeari

TaurenDruid wrote: »

Six new deaths today. Don't forget that bit. Even if it doesn't agree with your narrative, it's the headline.

Indeed. And typically 100 people a day pass away.

charlie14

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Yes those excess deaths in April were certainly Covid-19. But this thread is about restrictions and based on other countries which reopened earlier, the evidence suggests that our prolonged restrictions have not made much difference, certainly not a second wave or anything like that. I don't think many are arguing against the restrictions imposed during March and April and even into May (those that are are outliers) yet those supporting the the length of our restrictions always seem to go back to April deaths. That doesn't address the suggestion that we could have and should have eased restrictions faster in May.The evidence from other countries supports that.

For the first 21 days of May we had 3,779 new cases and 341 deaths. A daily average of 180 new cases and 16 deaths. With those figures and a RO number above 1 easing restriction like you favour in May would have had us back to April levels very quickly imo.

charlie14

charlie14 wrote: »

For the first 21 days of May we had 3,779 new cases and 341 deaths. A daily average of 180 new cases and 16 deaths. With those figures and a RO number above 1 easing restriction like you favour in May would have had us back to April levels very quickly imo.

The r0 could not have been above 1 in May. Otherwise cases would have been rising

Assetbacked

Goldengirl wrote: »

That is very black and white . Did you even listen to the podcast?
You know, as on this thread there are a spectrum of opinions among scientists.
He is neither as conservative as Gerry Killeen or as free as Carl Heneghan, but is a very well respected scientist and is speaking a lot of good informative sense on that podcast .

He's got a hard on for the attention he is getting and acts like this is a movie where the scientists need to save the day. And the crush the curve argument must necessarily fail and not be entertained as we share a land border with the UK plus it only works if the whole world were to do the same, which they won't. I'd consider his views further if he changed them.

charlie14

MickeyLeari wrote: »

Indeed. And typically 100 people a day pass away.

If it was to happen day on day then it is difficult to see a further 1,140 along with the already 1,726 deaths due to Covid-19 would not show an increase in our average of 31,000 deaths at years end.

charlie14

Deleted User wrote: »

The r0 could not have been above 1 in May. Otherwise cases would have been rising

They were still close enough that with the daily averages for those 21 days of 180 new cases, had restrictions been lifted to the level some here favour they would have quickly risen above 1 imo.

charlie14

charlie14 wrote: »

They were still close enough that with the daily averages for those 21 days of 180 new cases, had restrictions been lifted to the level some here favour they would have quickly risen above 1 imo.

From 30th April to 21st May, 7 day average went from over 420 to 80. No way was the R0 anywhere close to 1 in that time. That time also included the Mater hospital backlog.

charlie14

Deleted User wrote: »

From 30th April to 21st May, 7 day average went from over 420 to 80. No way was the R0 anywhere close to 1 in that time. That time also included the Mater hospital backlog.

Unless my maths are completely off for the first 21 days of May there were 3,779 new cases and 341 deaths. That is a daily average of 180 new cases and 16 deaths.
If you believe those figures were good enough to ease restriction in May then that is your opinion. As far as I`m concerned to do that could have easily and quickly left us back where we were mid April.