Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - Read OP for Mod Warnings

Jayesdiem · 22-06-2020 07:43PM

pjohnson wrote: »

Very good parody again Jay, you may be one of the better account parodies on these threads.

Agreed. We don’t want all the lemmings going off the cliff. You’re one of my favourites.

crossman47 · 22-06-2020 07:45PM

is_that_so wrote: »

I find that type of claim to be a cop out TBH. If you can't evaluate immediate risks in your life you shouldn't be outside in locations where you can come in contact with people, mask or no.

You have it the wrong way round. You wear a mask to protect others in case you are infected (without knowing it).

22-06-2020 07:56PM

pjohnson wrote: »

Hey dont let facts stop you. Hell facts have been irrelevant to the open up crowd since the start.

Funnily enough, not a homogenous group. The amount of posters in this thread has definitely dipped significantly since the government sped up the plan. I thought the initial plan was far too slow and am much happier with the updated plan and I doubt I'm alone in that. Being happy now doesn't mean we were wrong to begin with.

22-06-2020 07:57PM

Jayesdiem wrote: »

How do you know they had worked? Seriously, give me the mechanism of how “restrictions worked” and prove it too. And did you not see the ‘per million’ stipulation. What the fck use is case load without knowing what proportion of the population it comprises of? By that metric we are a world leaders. Jesus Christ, I am in a health and safety nightmare where even the simplest factual figures play second fiddle to feelings and hunches.

You don’t understand facts and figures, that much is obvious. Brazil have roughly the same number on cases per million and have conducted about 12% of the tests per million we have. The outbreak is still continuing to accelerate there also, but yes, you are comparing like with like.

And your opening challenge is ridiculous “show me how restrictions worked and prove it”. Diseases rely on opportunities for infection to spread. Each case of COVID-19 passing to 3 in absence of restrictions. Reduce the opportunities, reduce the infections. It is simple. Each case passes to less than 0.5. Then relax restrictions but with some measures remaining, but primarily awareness and tracing, to ensure residual cases pass to on average 1 person. Remaining vigilant in case there are sporadic outbreaks. The proof - find a Western country with a lower 7 day rolling average than us that did not lockdown? You will even struggle to find one currently lower than us that did lockdown.

The evidence is lockdown worked and lockdown allows countries to reopen with increased confidence. Ideally we could have been like Taiwan without a lockdown in the first place, but their systems to respond to this were already in place. Next time hopefully.

22-06-2020 07:59PM

GocRh wrote: »

We're the only country in the EU with a full BAN on a number of services - i.e. restaurants, bars, churches...

Most countries in the EU (possibly all countries apart from Sweden?) still have plenty of restrictions in place, such as limiting the number of people allowed indoors and the wearing of masks.
Restrictions are the new normal, and won't go away anytime soon.

We have followed the data and rapidly accelerated to the point where from next Monday, apart from alcohol only pubs we will generally be ahead of most of Europe in our reopening.

Galwayguy35 · 22-06-2020 08:00PM

Went to the dentist today, its great to see day to day services coming back and of course people working again as well.

Have to say they handled the new way of doing things very well, lot of extra work for them compared to a few months ago.

Jayesdiem · 22-06-2020 08:03PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You don’t understand facts and figures, that much is obvious. Brazil have roughly the same number on cases per million and have conducted about 12% of the tests per million we have. The outbreak is still continuing to accelerate there also, but yes, you are comparing like with like.

And your opening challenge is ridiculous “show me how restrictions worked and prove it”. Diseases rely on opportunities for infection to spread. Each case of COVID-19 passing to 3 in absence of restrictions. Reduce the opportunities, reduce the infections. It is simple. Each case passes to less than 0.5. Then relax restrictions but with some measures remaining, but primarily awareness and tracing, to ensure residual cases pass to on average 1 person. Remaining vigilant in case there are sporadic outbreaks. The proof - find a Western country with a lower 7 day rolling average than us that did not lockdown? You will even struggle to find one currently lower than us that did lockdown.

The evidence is lockdown worked and lockdown allows countries to reopen with increased confidence. Ideally we could have been like Taiwan without a lockdown in the first place, but their systems to respond to this were already in place. Next time hopefully.

It bloody well didn’t work. The evidence we do have (ie non lockdown countries as a control group) proves the EXACT opposite of the rubbish spewing out of your mouth. You are objectively incorrect.

CalamariFritti · 22-06-2020 08:06PM

Lockdown was not inevitable to be fair. Early in the lockdown it was already visible in the data that R was dropping and had indeed started to drop before lockdown. We just weren't in the mood to trust it and it would have been a brave man - or woman - to make a u-turn out of lockdown after just one week based on said data. I don't think there would have been any appetite amongst the public for it. I'm not a very active member on these threads but I remember getting crucified for saying this in late April even.

pjohnson · 22-06-2020 08:08PM

Jayesdiem wrote: »

It bloody well didn’t work. The evidence we do have (ie non lockdown countries as a control group) proves the EXACT opposite of the rubbish spewing out of your mouth. You are objectively incorrect.

Still with the jokes :pac:

acequion · 22-06-2020 08:12PM

Penfailed wrote: »

That's quite the leap to take that from what I posted. Follow the rules, or don't go. Those were your choices. I fail to see how standing in the rain is going to kill someone...but that is what you seem to be saying. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Anyway, what did you do about it today? Did you complain to the receptionist? Did you complain to the doctor? Did you go and see the doctor, following the rules...and then come on here to complain?

No that's not quite a leap at all. You're pretty much saying that rules come before health. Which is pretty ironic given the context.

First your provocative remark "come on here to complain." Er no,this is a thread on the restrictions so all contributions as to the reality of the restrictions on the ground are interesting.

Did I complain? You can be sure I did. But let's just say that that particular doc would be right up your street. All for rules. Would quite happily let a bevvy of elderly rot out in the rain on the wall once he could tick the right boxes on applying restrictions. You might think that's ok but I don't.

22-06-2020 08:12PM

Jayesdiem wrote: »

It bloody well didn’t work. The evidence we do have (ie non lockdown countries as a control group) proves the EXACT opposite of the rubbish spewing out of your mouth. You are objectively incorrect.

Where is this evidence then. You have yet to provide any. What about Norway - lockdown, Finland - lockdown, Denmark - lockdown, Sweden - Zero slowdown, Israel - resurgence, Brazil - basket case, Belarus - assuming it’s accurate - slowly stabilising at a high level. Give me one piece of objective evidence seeing as I am objectively incorrect

22-06-2020 08:18PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Lockdown was not inevitable to be fair. Early in the lockdown it was already visible in the data that R was dropping and had indeed started to drop before lockdown. We just weren't in the mood to trust it and it would have been a brave man - or woman - to make a u-turn out of lockdown after just one week based on said data. I don't think there would have been any appetite amongst the public for it. I'm not a very active member on these threads but I remember getting crucified for saying this in late April even.

R number here at the start was inflated by the number of cases introduced from overseas. That’s what caused the apparent slowdown when in fact we went from a mix of large numbers of imported cases plus local transmission, to local only. This happened all over Europe when air traffic ground to a halt in mid March giving an apparent slowdown in the transmission, when in fact it was the removal of an accelerant

Pete_Cavan · 22-06-2020 08:26PM

pjohnson wrote: »

Hey dont let facts stop you. Hell facts have been irrelevant to the open up crowd since the start.

The isn't a single "open up crowd" with a totally common view, and if there was Jayesdiem certainly wouldn't be the spokesperson. I have been in favour of easing restrictions for a while but I certainly don't agree with much of what he/she posts, I'm sure it's the same for many. Jayesdiem is an outlier, not the consensus view.

In terms of the relevance of facts, those who wanted restrictions eased faster were looking at experience elsewhere which shows that reopening businesses, including pubs, restaurants, hairdressers, etc, with adequate measures, does not lead to a resurgence in the number of cases. What are the facts that say it is safe for restaurants in Ireland to open next week but wasn't safe this week?

22-06-2020 08:32PM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

The isn't a single "open up crowd" with a totally common view, and if there was Jayesdiem certainly wouldn't be the spokesperson. I have been in favour of easing restrictions for a while but I certainly don't agree with much of what he/she posts, I'm sure it's the same for many. Jayesdiem is an outlier, not the consensus view.

In terms of the relevance of facts, those who wanted restrictions eased faster were looking at experience elsewhere which shows that reopening businesses, including pubs, restaurants, hairdressers, etc, with adequate measures, does not lead to a resurgence in the number of cases. What are the facts that say it is safe for restaurants in Ireland to open next week but wasn't safe this week?

At this stage it’s to give them time to plan . If they said open tomorrow many would not be ready. But we have rapidly accelerated the opening, but with a level of control over the process which is the right thing to do. Simply abandoning any semblance of a roadmap sends the signal that everything is over, when vigilance Is still required

Penfailed · 22-06-2020 08:37PM

acequion wrote: »

No that's not quite a leap at all. You're pretty much saying that rules come before health. Which is pretty ironic given the context.

First your provocative remark "come on here to complain." Er no,this is a thread on the restrictions so all contributions as to the reality of the restrictions on the ground are interesting.

Did I complain? You can be sure I did. But let's just say that that particular doc would be right up your street. All for rules. Would quite happily let a bevvy of elderly rot out in the rain on the wall once he could tick the right boxes on applying restrictions. You might think that's ok but I don't.

First, you said that I said, "Follow the rules or fúck off and die." I didn't. Now you're saying that I'm saying, "Rules come before health." I didn't say that either. Please stop trying to put words in my mouth. Following rules and health can coexist. Your doctor agrees with me.

I do, genuinely, hope that you are okay and that your ailment wasn't serious, for what it's worth.

Jayesdiem · 22-06-2020 08:42PM

pjohnson wrote: »

Still with the jokes :pac:

Still a robot with no capacity for independent thought.

Jayesdiem · 22-06-2020 08:45PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Where is this evidence then. You have yet to provide any. What about Norway - lockdown, Finland - lockdown, Denmark - lockdown, Sweden - Zero slowdown, Israel - resurgence, Brazil - basket case, Belarus - assuming it’s accurate - slowly stabilising at a high level. Give me one piece of objective evidence seeing as I am objectively incorrect

Just go back and reread what I wrote. I’m just not posting it again and the inaccuracies in your post would suggest you didn’t read it the first time. But do more than go back and read it. Use the link I sent to educate yourself on how the numbers have played out. You can arrange the various columns as in an Excel sheet.

CalamariFritti · 22-06-2020 08:46PM

Deleted User wrote: »

R number here at the start was inflated by the number of cases introduced from overseas. That’s what caused the apparent slowdown when in fact we went from a mix of large numbers of imported cases plus local transmission, to local only. This happened all over Europe when air traffic ground to a halt in mid March giving an apparent slowdown in the transmission, when in fact it was the removal of an accelerant

How do you come to that conclusion? Did you read that somewhere? Genuine question. I find the statistics side of this quite interesting.

Jayesdiem · 22-06-2020 08:50PM

Jayesdiem wrote: »

Just go back and reread what I wrote. I’m just not posting it again and the inaccuracies in your post would suggest you didn’t read it the first time. But do more than go back and read it. Use the link I sent to educate yourself on how the numbers have played out. You can arrange the various columns as in an Excel sheet.

And I’ll add that they are accurate to today’s date

22-06-2020 09:03PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

How do you come to that conclusion? Did you read that somewhere? Genuine question. I find the statistics side of this quite interesting.

If you look at how 2% of cases were linked to travel, and only a fraction of those were post March- that’s 500. Then add in the fact that those arriving from places other than Italy and China and displaying symptoms were not being tested until the second or third week of March unless they ended up in hospital ,you quickly have a very large number of uncontrolled of seed cases. Then they virtually disappear mid March. Would love to get the raw data or see some analysis on this, but it appears obvious to me that rather than natural growth we experienced a rapid acceleration due to the large outbreaks all over Europe.

Pete_Cavan · 22-06-2020 09:03PM

Deleted User wrote: »

At this stage it’s to give them time to plan . If they said open tomorrow many would not be ready. But we have rapidly accelerated the opening, but with a level of control over the process which is the right thing to do. Simply abandoning any semblance of a roadmap sends the signal that everything is over, when vigilance Is still required

I am not saying open tomorrow without any notice, or that we should abandon any semblance of a roadmap. I was replying to a poster who said "facts have been irrelevant to the open up crowd since the start". The desire to ease restrictions faster was based on the factual information which was becoming available. What are the facts our prolonged reopening plan is based on? Most medical reports into the virus have been that it is not as bad as initially feared, all the statistics about the profile of the virus here have been favourable for a long time, other countries went ahead with opening and their experiences were almost entirely positive. Worries about a second wave are based on fears, not actual facts. Some people are naturally more cautious, I get that, but there is no factual superiority which can be claimed there.

Ginger n Lemon · 22-06-2020 09:07PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Where is this evidence then. You have yet to provide any. What about Norway - lockdown, Finland - lockdown, Denmark - lockdown, Sweden - Zero slowdown, Israel - resurgence, Brazil - basket case, Belarus - assuming it’s accurate - slowly stabilising at a high level. Give me one piece of objective evidence seeing as I am objectively incorrect

Norway health chief already came out and said lockdown wasnt needed to suppress the virus.

He didnt say this for fun. Its not a co incidence he said this.

Belarus has less than 400 dead. Country of 9,485,000 people, whats the high level you are referring to?

22-06-2020 09:15PM

Jayesdiem wrote: »

Just go back and reread what I wrote. I’m just not posting it again and the inaccuracies in your post would suggest you didn’t read it the first time. But do more than go back and read it. Use the link I sent to educate yourself on how the numbers have played out. You can arrange the various columns as in an Excel sheet.

Absolute figures are meaningless while this is still going. Yes we had a rapid acceleration of cases early, but it has been lowered to one of the lowest in the world, certainly among countries that experienced a significant outbreak. Other countries are still growing fast however and even accelerating. The rate of change is the key measure of the success or otherwise of restrictions not the running total, which is only a snapshot in time. It is also obvious why it would take longer for a country of 200million far longer then one with 5million to get to for example 350deaths per million. Each case still only infects 2-3 people over the course of about a week irrespective of the counties population. The pace at which Brazil is accelerating towards us is frightening however

22-06-2020 09:28PM

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Norway health chief already came out and said lockdown wasnt needed to suppress the virus.

He didnt say this for fun. Its not a co incidence he said this.

Belarus has less than 400 dead. Country of 9,485,000 people, whats the high level you are referring to?

Well men in Belarus only live to 68 on average so that’s likely a major factor and their 7 day average on cases is at 648. If only our population was as unhealthy as Belarus or had such a problem with alcohol related deaths, imagine how many fewer deaths we would have had if they all died at least 10 years ago.

And I have said, the Taiwan model is the ideal way to deal with this. None of Europe was in that position however in mid March. And we also did not know which measures would have what effect and were not prepared to experiment on the population in the face of a virus that conservative estimates at the time put potential death rates at 1.5%

Jayesdiem · 22-06-2020 10:17PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Absolute figures are meaningless while this is still going. Yes we had a rapid acceleration of cases early, but it has been lowered to one of the lowest in the world, certainly among countries that experienced a significant outbreak. Other countries are still growing fast however and even accelerating. The rate of change is the key measure of the success or otherwise of restrictions not the running total, which is only a snapshot in time. It is also obvious why it would take longer for a country of 200million far longer then one with 5million to get to for example 350deaths per million. Each case still only infects 2-3 people over the course of about a week irrespective of the counties population. The pace at which Brazil is accelerating towards us is frightening however

Assuming you are correct (and you most certainly are not), what’s the big deal with people catching Covid when for all but the very oldest, 25% of whom have dementia incidentally (UK), it is not even a minor threat? If you catch Covid, why is there nothing to be said for staying cool headed, accepting what the real risk is, quarantining accordingly, and then returning to life? Why is they so difficult assuming no further complications? Do you worry this much in flu season when about one third of what we are now experiencing get infected, much of who die. Taking how scared out of your skin you are now and how you are falling over yourself to prove how dangerous the virus is, are you 33% like this in flu season? I reckon you’re 0% of this because you’ve been fed a load of hysterical rubbish and you’ve come back looking for dessert. The media should know better than to whip up this storm but since when are they a paragon of virtue and so if you eat what they feed you, you are the one who should be derided, not them.

Jayesdiem · 22-06-2020 10:18PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Absolute figures are meaningless while this is still going. Yes we had a rapid acceleration of cases early, but it has been lowered to one of the lowest in the world, certainly among countries that experienced a significant outbreak. Other countries are still growing fast however and even accelerating. The rate of change is the key measure of the success or otherwise of restrictions not the running total, which is only a snapshot in time. It is also obvious why it would take longer for a country of 200million far longer then one with 5million to get to for example 350deaths per million. Each case still only infects 2-3 people over the course of about a week irrespective of the counties population. The pace at which Brazil is accelerating towards us is frightening however

Assuming you are correct (and you most certainly are not), what’s the big deal with people catching Covid when for all but the very oldest, 25% of whom have dementia incidentally (UK), it is not even a minor threat? If you catch Covid, why is there nothing to be said for staying cool headed, accepting what the real risk is, quarantining accordingly, and then returning to life? Why is they so difficult assuming no further complications? Do you worry this much in flu season when about one third of what we are now experiencing get infected, much of who die. Taking how scared out of your skin you are now and how you are falling over yourself to prove how dangerous the virus is, are you 33% like this in flu season? I reckon you’re 0% of this because you’ve been fed a load of hysterical rubbish and you’ve come back looking for dessert. The media should know better than to whip up this storm but since when are they a paragon of virtue and so if you eat what they feed you, you are the one who should be derided, not them.

walshb · 22-06-2020 10:18PM

What sort testing happening now? Numbers per day wise?

Jayesdiem · 22-06-2020 10:21PM

walshb wrote: »

What sort testing happening now? Numbers per day wise?

Oh about 2 or so. It’s getting properly serious.

stephenjmcd · 22-06-2020 10:39PM

Just been having a look to see where is opening as a "restaurant" in Dublin city centre on the 29th.

Multiple places doing deals for around €30, 1 main or side whatever you want to call it and as much as you want to drink in 2hrs.

May as well just open up all of them

FintanMcluskey · 22-06-2020 10:42PM

Jayesdiem wrote: »

Assuming you are correct (and you most certainly are not), what’s the big deal with people catching Covid when for all but the very oldest, 25% of whom have dementia incidentally (UK), it is not even a minor threat? If you catch Covid, why is there nothing to be said for staying cool headed, accepting what the real risk is, quarantining accordingly, and then returning to life? Why is they so difficult assuming no further complications? Do you worry this much in flu season when about one third of what we are now experiencing get infected, much of who die. Taking how scared out of your skin you are now and how you are falling over yourself to prove how dangerous the virus is, are you 33% like this in flu season? I reckon you’re 0% of this because you’ve been fed a load of hysterical rubbish and you’ve come back looking for dessert. The media should know better than to whip up this storm but since when are they a paragon of virtue and so if you eat what they feed you, you are the one who should be derided, not them.

Excellent post.

Its now clear this is not dangerous to those remotely healthy and will not kill 1000s of random people under the age of 35 who had undiagnosed health issues like we were told last March.

Retail workers and meat plant workers didn't end up on ventilators like we were told was guaranteed to happen.

Rte have stopped reporting on the median age of death (relevant information) and only publish positive case age profiles which is completely irrelevant.

Some of the bullsh#t scaremongering from the media was and is criminal.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - Read OP for Mod Warnings