Covid19 Part XVIII-25,473 in ROI(1,736 deaths) 5,760 in NI (551 deaths)(30/06)Read OP

Micky 32 · 20-06-2020 10:19AM

Boggles wrote: »

Transmission by international travel is what brought the disease to the island in the first place and will bring the disease back to the island.

.

??

It’s already here. You must forget quickly on what you post. A bit like the wave 2 post.

Boggles · 20-06-2020 10:27AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

??

It’s already here. You must forget quickly on what you post. A bit like the wave 2 post.

Did I suggest it wasn't?

It would help greatly if you could point out exactly what is confusing you? It's like engaging with the Riddler.

The virus has been suppressed, it's in small manageable pockets that we are having a good success rate tracking tracing even if we are still doing that with young people from the army and by pen and paper.

International travel will increase infection rates and make tracing harder, again not my opinion.

joeguevara · 20-06-2020 10:29AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

??

It’s already here. You must forget quickly on what you post. A bit like the wave 2 post.

Are you saying that because it’s here international travel won’t make it worse?

Micky 32 · 20-06-2020 10:35AM

Boggles wrote: »

Did I suggest it wasn't?

It would help greatly if you could point out exactly what is confusing you? It's like engaging with the Riddler.

The virus has been suppressed, it's in small manageable pockets that we are having a good success rate tracking tracing even if we are still doing that with young people from the army and by pen and paper.

International travel will increase infection rates and make tracing harder, again not my opinion.

Oh give over you’re twisting it now.Can you not read your own posts? I have already qouted them for you. You said you never posted about a second wave but i find “ maybe we might get it right after wave 2”

Then i find “ will bring the disease back to the country” so you must be assuming the country is virus free or will be. How is that hard to understand?

Micky 32 · 20-06-2020 10:39AM

joeguevara wrote: »

Are you saying that because it’s here international travel won’t make it worse?

I have already posted the main reason that could make it worse. You can’t hide from the virus.

caveat emptor · 20-06-2020 10:48AM

Just an observation......

People banging on about ‘the economy’ are actually banging on about ‘the expendable income economy’. This is distinct from the economy that makes things and provides services.

Now as harsh as it seems. These activities are by definition non essential. Because they employ people they are screaming out ‘jobs’ . Economy and society whether we like it or not needs to reconfigure to get past this threat.

IMO it would be quicker to retrain and change industry than wait for a vaccine. I would of course love to proved wrong. No doom mongering here. Just plain pragmatism.

joeguevara · 20-06-2020 10:50AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

I have already posted the main reason that could make it worse. You can’t hide from the virus.

But lockdown was exactly that..hiding from the virus. Social distancing is hiding from the virus. International travel is bringing new sources. If it’s tourists they will be in hotels and tourist sites which by their very nature spread quicker. People whwho work there then spread to their family. If it is returning family there will be embracing and reunions. If it is business, then offices are exposed etc.

China is a good example of this.

The 10 places without Covid all have one thing in common. Complete seal. https://koryogroup.com/blog/are-there-countries-without-coronavirus

If we allow travel then all other measures are redundant. Then should basically go for herd immunity. Now I am not saying we can seal but to disregard it as the biggest risk is incorrect in my opinion.

Boggles · 20-06-2020 10:51AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

You said you never posted about a second wave but i find “ maybe we might get it right after wave 2”

Huh?

I posted extensively about a second wave. But I didn't lick it off a rock. I'm paraphrasing science and scientific bodies, like the European Centre for Disease Prevention.

You are just incoherently rambling at this stage lad and you are actually arguing with yourself. Always a good time to take a break I find.

Micky 32 · 20-06-2020 10:57AM

joeguevara wrote: »

But lockdown was exactly that..hiding from the virus. Social distancing is hiding from the virus. International travel is bringing new sources. If it’s tourists they will be in hotels and tourist sites which by their very nature spread quicker. People whwho work there then spread to their family. If it is returning family there will be embracing and reunions. If it is business, then offices are exposed etc.

.

Your post is assuming if the country is virus free but it’s not. I’ll repeat the virus is still here.

So you’re saying irish tourists that have the virus won’t spread it in the hotels and tourists sites etc but the international tourists will. Ok

joeguevara · 20-06-2020 10:59AM

Another example of the risk we are facing from international travel was made clear to me this week. Let’s say a small village that has no cases. There is no issue with people mingling. But if someone passes away and a family member returns for the funeral and is a risk, then the entire village over the space of a couple of days will be in direct contact with them at the wake, grave, afters until they leave. One retuning person who doesn’t quarantine spreads where without them the risk is minimal.

joeguevara · 20-06-2020 11:00AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Your post is assuming if the country is virus free but it’s not. I’ll repeat the virus is still here.

So you’re saying irish tourists that have the virus won’t spread it in the hotels and tourists sites etc but the international tourists will. Ok

No I didn’t. If Irish they will spread it to their family in the homes. I made that clear.

s1ippy · 20-06-2020 11:02AM

MipMap wrote: »

You see s1ippy what I don't get is why you think coming into close contact John Bull is any more risky that coming into close contact with your next door neighbour. If John Bull was not there then your risk is halved because you are coming into contact with 50% less people. I understand that.
What I don't get is why you need to avoid John Bull more than your next door neighbour.

We are trying to avoid a virus, not people. It just so happens that the more people we avoid the better are our chances of avoiding the virus because the virus is carried by people.
This idea that all Irish people are pure and all foreigners are lepers is absurd. Even if the infection rate in their country is more than it is here.
What is infinitely more relevent is the number of people you come into "close contact" with. Not where they came from.

I have one close contact and three relatives I socially distance with. Deliveries are dropped at the gate.

If I were to go out in public, I would not have that level of certainty in my limited exposure to others and I would not be comfortable near my vulnerable family members.

I would be more comfortable going to the shops if there weren't tourists from the third worst infected country in the world going around but I would still not drop my guard and continue to exercise an abundance of caution out around the place. Not sure I trust too many other irish people to do the same though, reading this thread and seeing photos/live cameras of the streets with the heaving zombified masses of consumers in them.

Micky 32 · 20-06-2020 11:02AM

Boggles wrote: »

Huh?

I posted extensively about a second wave. But I didn't lick it off a rock. I'm paraphrasing science and scientific bodies, like the European Centre for Disease Prevention.

You are just incoherently rambling at this stage lad and you are actually arguing with yourself. Always a good time to take a break I find.

No you are conveniently twisting your own words now . I’ll give you 10 out of 10 for it though well done. You’re a spoofer.

ACitizenErased · 20-06-2020 11:03AM

Some people on here need to realise that it is not inevitable that we have a “second wave” and have to learn to accept that fact.

For all we know, given the fact the virus has been circulating in Europe since November, this could very well be a second, deadlier wave. Nobody knows, so please stop acting like we do.

Micky 32 · 20-06-2020 11:09AM

joeguevara wrote: »

No I didn’t. If Irish they will spread it to their family in the homes. I made that clear.

And to other people on their travels also.

joeguevara · 20-06-2020 11:31AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

And to other people on their travels also.

And Every person who comes into contact with their family members and Friends who were are exposed to a risk that wasn’t There without international travel.

20-06-2020 11:37AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Just an observation......

People banging on about ‘the economy’ are actually banging on about ‘the expendable income economy’. This is distinct from the economy that makes things and provides services.

Now as harsh as it seems. These activities are by definition non essential. Because they employ people they are screaming out ‘jobs’ . Economy and society whether we like it or not needs to reconfigure to get past this threat.

IMO it would be quicker to retrain and change industry than wait for a vaccine. I would of course love to proved wrong. No doom mongering here. Just plain pragmatism.

Retraining and changing industries is not a quick process. You're talking years. And no, we don't need to change our economy based on a once in a lifetime event.

ACitizenErased · 20-06-2020 11:42AM

“Virus at 'one in million' level in community“
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0620/1148611-coronavirus-reaction/

iguana · 20-06-2020 11:48AM

jackboy wrote: »

So if someone has very low antibody levels and these changes to the T helper cells that you mentioned, this means that they have some level of immunity.

It actually probably means they have pretty good immunity for at least the mid-term. The body doesn't need to constantly produce active antibodies in order to stay immune. Once it has the 'memory' of them it can usually produce them again when needed. As I understand it that is similar for the T-Cell changes. It's looking like a healthy recovered person with a normal immune system is likely to be immune for at least the next few years, possibly decades. This isn't guaranteed at this point but it is increasingly likely. Which is great.

The problem is that so much time and money and planning has been invested in the antibody studies. So they will be going ahead even though we already know that the data from them will be limited because they can only give us a narrow picture. And if we can only have that narrow picture for now, we should go ahead with it. But it should very much be made clear that the results from these studies are of limited use in terms of telling us about rates of national/local infection.

When we get mass testing for the CD4 cell changes we will truly know. Whether the will is there to push for those as soon as possible or not is the question. I could very easily see a case that we already have mass vaccination by the time that test is produced and rolled out. So it will end up being a bit of a curiosity to most people and only of real interest to a small number of scientists still working on Covid rather than something that is as pressing as it is now. As someone who's still in the recovery stages of a number of post-viral conditions caused by a strange respiratory infection I had in March, I've pretty much accepted that I won't be getting any real answers about whether or not the infection was Covid for quite some time.

caveat emptor · 20-06-2020 11:57AM

AdamD wrote: »

Retraining and changing industries is not a quick process. You're talking years. And no, we don't need to change our economy based on a once in a lifetime event.

This virus has accelerated trends. Debenhams was going to die it was just a case of how long could it last. Covid cut it off at the knees.

That’s one thing. I’m not sure how long it takes to be an air hostess (a few weeks? )

How long does it take to be something else which is more relevant now?

Affected sectors must be throwing money at decision makers to continue THEIR existence. (Airlines make a **** load of money allocating a greater fraction of it to influence public policy now makes sense) Decision makers need to know that their decisions and why they took them will not be forgotten and that they will be reminded of them at the poles. ( nursing homes? I’m sure everyone on here has lost someone that would not have died if virus contained)

This is not going anywhere. Just because we avoided systematic failure in March does not mean that it doesn’t pose a threat in nov / December.

It’s like applying the brakes when there is something ahead. You have to anticipate it. To follow that analogy we need to also learn why we break and to become good drivers.

fr336 · 20-06-2020 12:18PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Some people on here need to realise that it is not inevitable that we have a “second wave” and have to learn to accept that fact.

For all we know, given the fact the virus has been circulating in Europe since November, this could very well be a second, deadlier wave. Nobody knows, so please stop acting like we do.

Good points, but likewise nobody knows that this isn't a first wave and there won't be a second. Everyone needs to be cautious as this isn't a game.

Martina1991 · 20-06-2020 12:19PM

iguana wrote:

No. The problem with antibody tests is that as scientists learn more, it's starting to appear that the antibody tests are looking for the wrong thing. The T-Cell response to the virus may be a more important factor as a significant number of patients either produce no or a tiny amount of antibodies. And many who do produce antibodies, have those antibody levels drop very quickly to low levels not detectable by these tests. So all a negative antibody test means is that a person did not have detectable antibody levels at the time of the test. It doesn't mean they didn't have Covid. It now appears that the best way to check for past infection is to look for changes for the T-Helper cell CD4. Those changes appear permanent so when an efficient way to do mass testing for those changes is developed, that's when we'll actually know how many people were infected by Covid. Mass antibody testing is somewhat useful but it's a very blunt instrument that isn't going to give us a true picture.

In order to observe CD4 changes in T cells you would need tissue samples from a biopsy. That would be too invasive for mass testing.Â

A blood test can measure a CD4 count but even then that is just an assessment of the patients immune system. It wont tell you if the person has mounted an immune response specifally to SARS-CoV-2.

Antibody tests are widely used to determine immunity for other viruses like measles, mumps, rubella, Hepatitis etc and are very reliable.

The problem isn't with the antibody test itself. The problem is we dont know enough about the immune response to the virsus yet i.e. what level of immunity is produced or how long it lasts.

fr336 · 20-06-2020 12:24PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

“Virus at 'one in million' level in community“
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0620/1148611-coronavirus-reaction/

Open the borders at once! Brazil are very keen on inward investment I hear!

JP Liz V1 · 20-06-2020 12:24PM

42 in total in ROI hospitals with Covid19 (most in Mater with 10)

ACitizenErased · 20-06-2020 12:29PM

https://twitter.com/collumbo/status/1274266880350605312?s=21

iguana · 20-06-2020 12:36PM

Martina1991 wrote: »

Antibody tests are widely used to determine immunity for other viruses like measles, mumps, rubella, Hepatitis etc and are very reliable.

I know but there have been a number of studies showing that people recovered from confirmed Covid infections don't have detectable antibodies. Either because they didn't produce them or because they fade quickly. So the antibody tests we currently have are not definitive. Especially if we are trying to tell how many people with mild cases were infected. They don't give us a whole picture and we still don't know how much of that picture is missing. It's too soon for any real answers so the antibody studies being done are only going to provide a piece of information that will be one part of learning rather than the definitive information that many people are expecting.

Boggles · 20-06-2020 12:55PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Some people on here need to realise that it is not inevitable that we have a “second wave” and have to learn to accept that fact.

That't not actually a fact.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

For all we know, given the fact the virus has been circulating in Europe since November, this could very well be a second, deadlier wave. Nobody knows, so please stop acting like we do.

That's not actually a fact either.

It's a novel virus that we have little to no immunity to and there is no vaccine.

That's an actual fact.

Fauci has pretty much nailed the "phase" we are in at the moment.

Fauci calls 'anti-science bias' in the US problematic

If you go by the evidence and by the data, you're speaking the truth and it's amazing sometimes, the denial there is," Fauci said. "It's the same thing that gets people who are anti-vaxxers

Jim_Hodge · 20-06-2020 12:57PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I was involved in the testing of it last two weeks and it's basically ready, besides the actual bluetooth integration. I assume that's what's holding it back.

Doubts as to accuracy.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/will-the-irish-contact-tracing-app-ever-materialise-1.4283739

Boggles · 20-06-2020 01:02PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Doubts as to accuracy.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/will-the-irish-contact-tracing-app-ever-materialise-1.4283739

Can we not just license an app from a country who has had it up and running for months?

bb1234567 · 20-06-2020 01:05PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

“Virus at 'one in million' level in community“
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0620/1148611-coronavirus-reaction/

This seems an odd thing to say, Irelan only has 5 millions, so there is only 5 people with the virus in the commmunity at most?

Remember the HSE also assured the public that there was no known community spread occurring in Ireland in March before the outbreak occurred, and they said the chances of catching covid in ireland were very low at that time.This information they announced to the public was based on very little evidence as they were testing very few people but they said it nonetheless. They were literally completely wrong, there was thousands or even tens of thousands of community transmissions occurring daily as they announced this to the public.

I am NOT saying there is much virus in the community, or we should be afraid or anything. But I dont see how they could be so sure of this figure especially when so many are asymptomatic, and based on their previous record from March I think it should be taken with at least a smidge of salt.

Covid19 Part XVIII-25,473 in ROI(1,736 deaths) 5,760 in NI (551 deaths)(30/06)Read OP

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