How will schools be able to go back in September?

WAW · 17-06-2020 07:17AM

Schools will reopen fully in September with a nod to Covid controls but that's it. Why do I say that? I genuinely believe that the govt. know the risk to be miniscule however in order not to lose face about the entire overreaction to Covid 19( albeit well meaning), they can't be seen to come straight out now and say that the schools can reopen normally do it'll probably be August before they declare the threat minimal and announce a normal return.
Like another poster, many organisations stayed open and working as normal without social distancing simply because it was not workable, without masks and low to zero infections - very close, prolonged working, and thankfully people were fine. For Covid, it would appear schools are not high risk.
The public can risk assess for itself and we see pure anti Covid measues fatigue with minimal social distancing at this stage across the country.
If a cohort of teachers and students across the country fall under the cocooning category, as a suggestion, there could be a coordinated, national attempt to facilitate those for online learning and teaching - there is time- should they not be medically fit to return to classrooms.
Other than that, teachers and pupils should return as normal. People can overburden themselves with what ifs. Teachers should use the evidence before them. If they did, they would see there is minimal risk from Covid 19 to the vast vast majority of teachers, school staff and pupils.Better off to strengthen everyone's immune system back in the school system. Parents won't accept an unworkable blended approach that's being bandied about.
The govt. know that. They are just delaying saying it.
I will take it all back if I'm proven wrong!But, I for one would be very surprised if schools weren't all back as normal.

sideswipe · 17-06-2020 08:36AM

WAW wrote: »

Schools will reopen fully in September with a nod to Covid controls but that's it. Why do I say that? I genuinely believe that the govt. know the risk to be miniscule however in order not to lose face about the entire overreaction to Covid 19( albeit well meaning), they can't be seen to come straight out now and say that the schools can reopen normally do it'll probably be August before they declare the threat minimal and announce a normal return.
Like another poster, many organisations stayed open and working as normal without social distancing simply because it was not workable, without masks and low to zero infections - very close, prolonged working, and thankfully people were fine. For Covid, it would appear schools are not high risk.
The public can risk assess for itself and we see pure anti Covid measues fatigue with minimal social distancing at this stage across the country.
If a cohort of teachers and students across the country fall under the cocooning category, as a suggestion, there could be a coordinated, national attempt to facilitate those for online learning and teaching - there is time- should they not be medically fit to return to classrooms.
Other than that, teachers and pupils should return as normal. People can overburden themselves with what ifs. Teachers should use the evidence before them. If they did, they would see there is minimal risk from Covid 19 to the vast vast majority of teachers, school staff and pupils.Better off to strengthen everyone's immune system back in the school system. Parents won't accept an unworkable blended approach that's being bandied about.
The govt. know that. They are just delaying saying it.
I will take it all back if I'm proven wrong!But, I for one would be very surprised if schools weren't all back as normal.

I hope you are right. What I fear most though is that things are so good now in terms of infection rates that over the summer some normality will return- people may start to go abroad and visitors come here. This could lead to an increase in cases just as school return and have calls for another nationwide lockdown come autumn. This is a possible scenario we are preparing for in our house in terms of trying to make sure we are flexible with work to be able to cope. Our daughters school have sent out new online learning tools for things like spellings and maths that they are introducing next year, so perhaps some schools are covering for future partial or full closures. There was also talk of expanding online resources similar to the BBC homeschooling resources which would be handy. I can actually see an uptick in people choosing homeschooling as an option going forward, especially kids that have health issues.

Boggles · 17-06-2020 09:01AM

WAW wrote: »

Schools will reopen fully in September with a nod to Covid controls but that's it. Why do I say that? I genuinely believe that the govt. know the risk to be miniscule however in order not to lose face about the entire overreaction to Covid 19( albeit well meaning),

An entire over reaction?

No, the reality is Ireland under reacted and were late doing it. Not as bad obviously as the UK.

The countries that actually over reacted or in other words reacted properly and most importantly early have all had the best outcomes.

Western Capitalism didn't crash (hibernate) itself for the craic.

There seems to be a worrying detachment from reality from a growing vocal minority that the spread of the virus controlled itself and it was very little to do with the massive restrictions imposed on the country and this would have happened regardless.

Again getting kids back to school in September won't be the problem, keeping the schools open from November to March may be.

WAW wrote: »

I will take it all back if I'm proven wrong!

Well that is comforting.

wirelessdude01 · 17-06-2020 09:19AM

sideswipe wrote: »

Our daughters school have sent out new online learning tools for things like spellings and maths that they are introducing next year, so perhaps some schools are covering for future partial or full closures. There was also talk of expanding online resources similar to the BBC homeschooling resources which would be handy. I can actually see an uptick in people choosing homeschooling as an option going forward, especially kids that have health issues.

Do you mind me asking what new online tools they will be using?

sideswipe · 17-06-2020 09:58AM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Do you mind me asking what new online tools they will be using?

Spellings for me and mangahigh. Don’t know much about either as yet. I’m a little apprehensive about doing spellings by touching and swiping a screen, Maybe I’m a bit old school but I think writing them down is more conducive to remembering them. Time will tell I suppose. It will be handy to keep a close eye on progress though.

Jizique · 17-06-2020 10:02AM

sideswipe wrote: »

Spellings for me and mangahigh. Don’t know much about either as yet. I’m a little apprehensive about doing spellings by touching and swiping a screen, Maybe I’m a bit old school but I think writing them down is more conducive to remembering them. Time will tell I suppose. It will be handy to keep a close eye on progress though.

If the pubs are back from June 29, then I see no reason the schools can’t be back by late August and early September

WAW · 17-06-2020 10:03AM

Boggles wrote: »

An entire over reaction?

No, the reality is Ireland under reacted and were late doing it. Not as bad obviously as the UK.

The countries that actually over reacted or in other words reacted properly and most importantly early have all had the best outcomes.

Western Capitalism didn't crash (hibernate) itself for the craic.

There seems to be a worrying detachment from reality from a growing vocal minority that the spread of the virus controlled itself and it was very little to do with the massive restrictions imposed on the country and this would have happened regardless.

Again getting kids back to school in September won't be the problem, keeping the schools open from November to March may be.

Well that is comforting.

Well, you're assuming, that the measures put in place controlled the spread of the virus in Ireland. There are so many variables and simply because measures were put in place does not equate to a causal reduced infection rate - was the virus burning itself out at that stage anyway? We don't know.
Asymptomatic, heslthy, inflected individuals like any viral infection is not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, it's a good thing if it confers immunity. But of course we're not sure as viruses change, if immunity is lasting.
As I said, leaving aside vulnerable groups and nursing homes, most of the workplaces which continued to operate as normal throughout did not report anything but insignificant numbers which is very reassuring for society as a whole.

Benimar · 17-06-2020 10:05AM

Jizique wrote: »

If the pubs are back from June 29, then I see no reason the schools can’t be back by late August and early September

Pubs aren't back on June 29th. Restaurants are. Any 'pub' opening has to operate as a restaurant.

Oh, they are also using this thing called Social Distancing.

Not one teacher has said they wont go back if SD regulations are enforced.

downthemiddle · 17-06-2020 10:17AM

WAW wrote: »

Well, you're assuming, that the measures put in place controlled the spread of the virus in Ireland. There are so many variables and simply because measures were put in place does not equate to a causal reduced infection rate - was the virus burning itself out at that stage anyway? We don't know.
Asymptomatic, heslthy, inflected individuals like any viral infection is not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, it's a good thing if it confers immunity. But of course we're not sure as viruses change, if immunity is lasting.
As I said, leaving aside vulnerable groups and nursing homes, most of the workplaces which continued to operate as normal throughout did not report anything but insignificant numbers which is very reassuring for society as a whole.

One third of infections are healthcare workers. You have the clusters in the meat processing plants. There is no evidence of the virus burning itself out. The numbers of infection, 25k in a population of 5m, means immunity is non existent.
You are living in a dangerous, speculative "reality".

Boggles · 17-06-2020 10:18AM

WAW wrote: »

Well, you're assuming, that the measures put in place controlled the spread of the virus in Ireland.

Well no, I am not assuming anything, it's not my opinion.

Evidence based science conclusively proves the restrictions controlled the spread of the virus, it's absolutely irrefutable and bizarre in the extreme that a functioning adult at this stage would hold such a view.

Unless you can cite some other credible science based evidence that a similar novel virus would have just burned itself out in the same time frame with the same adverse effects without mitigation?

I'll gladly take a peek.

Jizique · 17-06-2020 10:24AM

Benimar wrote: »

Pubs aren't back on June 29th. Restaurants are. Any 'pub' opening has to operate as a restaurant.

Oh, they are also using this thing called Social Distancing.

Not one teacher has said they wont go back if SD regulations are enforced.

I am listening to RTÉ 1 now and the pub representatives are on talking about 90 mins, pub crawls and €9 meals.
The pubs are opening - this is not about Chapter One and the restaurant trade

Benimar · 17-06-2020 10:31AM

Jizique wrote: »

I am listening to RTÉ 1 now and the pub representatives are on talking about 90 mins, pub crawls and €9 meals.
The pubs are opening - this is not about Chapter One and the restaurant trade

The pubs are opening as restaurants, not as the pubs we know.

And Social Distancing will apply.

nw1dqsv7amx026 · 17-06-2020 10:36AM

Boggles wrote: »

Well no, I am not assuming anything, it's not my opinion.

Evidence based science conclusively proves the restrictions controlled the spread of the virus, it's absolutely irrefutable and bizarre in the extreme that a functioning adult at this stage would hold such a view.

Unless you can cite some other credible science based evidence that a similar novel virus would have just burned itself out in the same time frame with the same adverse effects without mitigation?

I'll gladly take a peek.

"cite some other credible science based evidence"

Please do this, perhaps some modeling or could it be that Simon said?

That said I don't believe it burnt itself out and is gone forever or that the lockdown was the correct approach.

Boggles · 17-06-2020 10:45AM

Paul Fat Beard wrote: »

That said I don't believe it burnt itself out and is gone forever or that the lockdown was the correct approach.

Which approach was correct so?

What country didn't mitigate and the virus just burnt itself out?

Boggles · 17-06-2020 10:49AM

Jizique wrote: »

I am listening to RTÉ 1 now and the pub representatives are on talking about 90 mins, pub crawls and €9 meals.
The pubs are opening - this is not about Chapter One and the restaurant trade

Tip for you.

Don't get public health advice from the vintners association.

nw1dqsv7amx026 · 17-06-2020 11:01AM

Boggles wrote: »

Which approach was correct so?

What country didn't mitigate and the virus just burnt itself out?

I think the virus will be here to stay unless we get immunity through a vaccine or by prior infection.
I'd guess neither will fully happen but that there will be better therapeutics and perhaps partial immunity via a yearly vaccine or prior infection.
Eventually we will have to live with it just like seasonal flu. According to the hse, approx 500 die per year in Ireland from the flu. So this is currently three times as bad.
Based on what we knew at the time we were correct to over react to get our hospitals ready. But it's been obvious for several weeks that this was an overreaction.

Which country /approach was correct? I doubt that there will ever be a consensus on that.

Boggles · 17-06-2020 11:07AM

Paul Fat Beard wrote: »

Eventually we will have to live with it just like seasonal flu. According to the hse, approx 500 die per year in Ireland from the flu.

Christ you just went full Trump. :rolleyes:

We don't lockdown for the flu and we have some very effective treatments including the occasional vaccine.

You are comparing flu deaths to coronavirus deaths without factoring in the death rate if we didn't mitigate. You still think it would "only" be 3 times as much.

That's before you even consider the other effects of a collapsed emergency care system.

Paul Fat Beard wrote: »

Which country /approach was correct? I doubt that there will ever be a consensus on that.

Well no, there is Clear Consensus.

The countries that acted the fastest and toughest have had the best outcomes.

Jizique · 17-06-2020 11:08AM

Benimar wrote: »

The pubs are opening as restaurants, not as the pubs we know.

And Social Distancing will apply.

Of course they are, silly me

ectoraige · 17-06-2020 11:14AM

sideswipe wrote: »

It's worth pointing out their regional approach. This will need to happen in Ireland too- spike in cases or outbreaks needs to be treated by area rather than the whole country. There are areas in Ireland that have had no cases in a weeks and yet schools are still closed. An outbreak in one area should not lead to schools closing again across the whole country next term.

How would you define an area? We had 30 days in Sligo without a new case reported, but that streak ended yesterday with one new case. To the best of my knowledge that person is near the Mayo/Roscommon border and would be closer to Castlebar than to Sligo town. Should all the Sligo schools close in this circumstance, or maybe everything within 20km? Dublin would probably be permanently closed with this shirt is policy, so would area depend on population density?

nw1dqsv7amx026 · 17-06-2020 11:17AM

Boggles wrote: »

Christ you just went full Trump. :rolleyes:

We don't lockdown for the flu and we have some very effective treatments including the occasional vaccine.

You are comparing flu deaths to coronavirus deaths without factoring in the death rate if we didn't mitigate. You still think it would "only" be 3 times as much.

That's before you even consider the other effects of a collapsed emergency care system.

Well no, there is Clear Consensus.

The countries that acted the fastest and toughest have had the best outcomes.

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day but tbh I don't pay any attention to what Trump says or believes so I can't comment on that.

You keep making statements about this as if they are fact. Nobody knows the infection mortality rate. How can you when you don't have any reliable testing. It's been widely reported that the testing has poor sensitivity.

Check out an interview with Professor Hendrik Streeck, an epidemiologist from the University of Bonn. He 'over' estimates a fatality rate of between 0.2-0.3%. He uses the words over estimate.

nw1dqsv7amx026 · 17-06-2020 11:24AM

Boggles wrote: »

That's before you even consider the other effects of a collapsed emergency care system.

Yes you are right that a collapsed case system had to avoided so we acted correctly in March.

However, we currently do not have fully functioning care system. Fact is that there is no cancer screening and anecdotally I've heard of people dying from stroke and heart attack who could have been saved off they weren't afraid to go to the doctor. Not to mention all the procedures that have been put off.

Boggles · 17-06-2020 11:25AM

Paul Fat Beard wrote: »

You keep making statements about this as if they are fact.

Sorry which "statement" did I make that is not an actual fact?

Paul Fat Beard wrote: »

Check out an interview with Professor Hendrik Streeck, an epidemiologist from the University of Bonn. He 'over' estimates a fatality rate of between 0.2-0.3%. He uses the words over estimate.

I asked for your opinion not Hendriks.

Paul Fat Beard wrote: »

According to the hse, approx 500 die per year in Ireland from the flu. So this is currently three times as bad.

So again, are you of the belief that if we didn't mitigate that it would still only be "Three times as bad".?

byhookorbycrook · 17-06-2020 11:29AM

marilynrr wrote: »

What do you mean by get back to normal though? What's the figure or the bottom line?

For all we know there's never going to be a vaccine and we don't know if people who have got it will have lasting immunity, this could become seasonal and come back every year.

There hasn't been a new case in Kerry for a month, obviously it makes no sense to open the schools now but lets say it was end of September and Kerry had had a month without a new case....why wouldn't it be acceptable for kids in that county to go to school full time to receive their proper education? what is the period of time they would have to wait?

2 cases in Kerry today . Once tourism re-opens , there will be many more .

byhookorbycrook · 17-06-2020 11:32AM

sideswipe wrote: »

Spellings for me and mangahigh. Don’t know much about either as yet. I’m a little apprehensive about doing spellings by touching and swiping a screen, Maybe I’m a bit old school but I think writing them down is more conducive to remembering them. Time will tell I suppose. It will be handy to keep a close eye on progress though.

Both programs are excellent , they tailor themselves to the needs of the individual child .
Spellings For Me has offline work as well .
Yes, schools are trying to plan for more closures , such a shame the DES isn’t .

nw1dqsv7amx026 · 17-06-2020 11:33AM

Boggles wrote: »

Sorry which "statement" did I make that is not an actual fact?

I asked for your opinion not Hendriks.

So again, are you of the belief that if we didn't mitigate that it would still only be "Three times as bad".?

Honestly?? Your retorts are to :-
Compare me to Trump, or ask me to prove the 'facts' you refer but don't cite don't exist.

Best of all you want my opinion instead of a professor in epidemiology.
My opinion is that the professor in epidemiology knows more than either of us.

My opinion is that we need social distancing where possible. It's not possible on public transport, hospitals or schools which need to run at full capacity.
Its not possible in pubs but they are not vital so they can't open as before.

Hopefully in time we will get a therapy or some sort of immunity.

ldy4mxonucwsq6 · 17-06-2020 11:39AM

Benimar wrote: »

The pubs are opening as restaurants, not as the pubs we know.

And Social Distancing will apply.

In theory....

Benimar · 17-06-2020 11:41AM

Zahir Bitter Cellist wrote: »

In theory....

In practice.

Look at the stories around on street seating and betting shops this week. Its pretty clear that anything non compliant will be shut down.

The only thing worse for the publicans than opening with Social Distancing is being forced to close because of non compliance. These are business people and won't be as willing to ignore guidelines as some seem to think.

nw1dqsv7amx026 · 17-06-2020 11:46AM

Boggles wrote: »

So again, are you of the belief that if we didn't mitigate that it would still only be "Three times as bad".?

Rough calculations.
I've seen hse quote 500-600 deaths per year in Ireland from the flu Three times that is the current covid deaths.
Below link from the hse refers to 1000 deaths from flu season.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/media/pressrel/flu-causes-severe-illness-and-death-in-ireland-every-year.html

I've read and seen a lot of articles indicating a mortality rate of 0.1% which would roughly mean 5,000 deaths in Ireland.
Again, without accurate and widespread testing, nobody knows but the German study I referred to earlier did a sample of 1000 people.

Murple · 17-06-2020 11:48AM

WAW wrote: »

Like another poster, many organisations stayed open and working as normal without social distancing simply because it was not workable, without masks and low to zero infections - very close, prolonged working, and thankfully people were fine.

Out of interest, what are these many organisations that stayed open, working as normal with no social distancing, no masks, very close and prolonged work with low to zero infections?

nw1dqsv7amx026 · 17-06-2020 11:51AM

Murple wrote: »

Out of interest, what are these many organisations that stayed open, working as normal with no social distancing, no masks, very close and prolonged work with low to zero infections?

Wasn't my comment but i believe Aldi and Lidl released their testing results. With 3,000/4,000 employees they had 6 and 7 positive results.

I don't see how workers in supermarkets could not have been exposed multiple times even with social distancing.

Potentially this could be very good news in that very few Aldi/Lidl workers got sick possibly proving that the majority who get infected don't get very sick

How will schools be able to go back in September?

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