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Relaxation of restrictions Part II

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Comments

  • #4592
    BillyBiggs
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 167 ✭✭BillyBiggs


    Down9194 wrote: »
    Like I said previously FG don't care as they won't be around to clean up the mess

    A lot of capes fluttering in the wind. Politicians that want to make headlines on a global scale, for their severe and “sensible” lockdowns.


  • #4593
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Concretejungle wrote: »
    Why would you think that we are being told that we are not where we need to be.
    Do you not think that the Govt. would be deligted to ease the restrictions if they thought that was a good idea. They know the public are fed up and wouldn't that be a great way to get brownie points by doing what the public want. They obviously know better and we have to respect that.

    Nah they're using the ICU and hospital number as a distraction from the mess in nursing homes etc and lack of testing capacity from the HSE

    Both outside the scope of the general public

    That's the real reason that restrictions won't be eased


  • #4594
    cython
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,822 ✭✭✭cython


    mandrake04 wrote: »
    This is why they want to ‘flatten the curve’ if too many people come down sick at once then the whole fabric of society breaks down.

    Like imagine your local supermarket, if 75% of the staff were sick at the same time how could it fully operate?, imagine 60-70% of the Garda sick? Prison staff? firemen? doctors? Nurses? etc if you have too many sick at once you have complete community chaos and a danger of tipping your health system into meltdown due to huge number of hospitalisations.

    But like the name suggests flatten, the peak is pushed down but the bottom spreads out likes a squashed ****e, So you still have infections growth but over a longer timeframe and the longer you need to flatten the longer you need restrictions.

    If you have a need to return to somewhat normal conditions then flattening the curve is no good, you need full on suppression.

    The figures you cite there are very hyperbolic though, when a number of studies involving blind testing (i.e. regardless of showing symptoms or not) suggest that as many as 50% (or perhaps more) of those who contract the virus are asymptomatic, and as such would never go off sick, and indeed in the current climate in Ireland would never even necessarily be counted. Extending that means that even if the entire country got the virus over the course of a month, you would never see those percentages of illness and resulting absenteeism materialise.

    That is not to say, of course, that there wouldn't be other terrible side effects from such a scenario, but you are postulating a scenario that is all but impossible at a societal level.


  • #4595
    GazzaL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,395 ✭✭✭GazzaL


    Concretejungle wrote: »
    Why would you think that we are being told that we are not where we need to be.
    Do you not think that the Govt. would be deligted to ease the restrictions if they thought that was a good idea. They know the public are fed up and wouldn't that be a great way to get brownie points by doing what the public want. They obviously know better and we have to respect that.


    It is a fact that the HSE have failed to meet their testing targets. They are the only numbers that jump off the page. We are where we need to be. The HSE are not where they need to be. But who wants yet another HSE scandal? So blame someone else or some other figures. We'll all be in our graves before the problems in the HSE are solved, so why should we allow them to destroy everyone's lives?


  • #4596
    BillyBiggs
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 167 ✭✭BillyBiggs


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Nah they're using the ICU and hospital number as a distraction from the mess in nursing homes etc and lack of testing capacity from the HSE

    Both outside the scope of the general public

    That's the real reason that restrictions won't be eased

    Imagine if they get testing going in full swing. The numbers will skyrocket on paper at least.


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  • #4597
    Theboinkmaster
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,052 ✭✭✭Theboinkmaster


    road_high wrote: »
    Who are? If They’re not on the important list surely they can’t? And anyone selling is caught by the 2km roadblocks anyhow

    building providers, engineering firms.

    Why wouldn't they open up? The risk on Tuesday is actually a lot less than what the risk will be in 3 months time when a lot more open.

    Open today/open in 3 weeks - no difference.

    lockdown is killing more people than CV-19 that's obvious.


  • #4598
    Long_Wave
    Closed Accounts Posts: 136 ✭✭Long_Wave


    There are 125 elected TDS who could remove Leo and co today if they wanted to but they choose not to.


  • #4599
    Micky 32
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,623 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    Concretejungle wrote: »
    Why would you think that we are being told that we are not where we need to be.
    Do you not think that the Govt. would be deligted to ease the restrictions if they thought that was a good idea. .

    Exactly, the government knows the more freedom people have the better the economy. No government wants their people locked up longer than necessary.


  • #4600
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    BillyBiggs wrote: »
    Imagine if they get testing going in full swing. The numbers will skyrocket on paper at least.

    Yup but sure testing in the nursing homes is adding to increase in cases

    Also being used as a stick to beat the general public who have had no part in the nursing homes mess


  • #4601
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Long_Wave wrote: »
    There are 125 elected TDS who could remove Leo and co today if they wanted to but they choose not to.
    They can't until they can agree to elect a new Taoiseach.


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  • #4602
    Concretejungle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41 ✭Concretejungle


    GazzaL wrote: »
    It is a fact that the HSE have failed to meet their testing targets. They are the only numbers that jump off the page. We are where we need to be. The HSE are not where they need to be. But who wants yet another HSE scandal? So blame someone else or some other figures. We'll all be in our graves before the problems in the HSE are solved, so why should we allow them to destroy everyone's lives?

    So if the testing is not ready yet then we are not where we need to be, which will mean more deaths if the restrictions are lifted.
    So which is the better way of destroying our lives, destroying them permanently by lifting the restrictions now or destroying them temporarily by waiting a bit longer. ?


  • #4603
    FishOnABike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    easypazz wrote: »
    Seriously?

    This will never be as simple as lockdown forever until its all gone away.

    That's a bit like saying dig up the roads forever so people don't die in car crashes.

    We need to move on from this phase and accept a certain level of death / ICU / new cases etc.
    The current phase is accepting a certain level of death / ICU / new cases... but that level is not yet low enough nor do we yet have the monitoring capapacity in place to ensure that an acceptable low level of transmission can be reliably maintained if restrictions are relaxed.

    The better people comply with the current restrictions and the sooner our health service have the monitoring capacity, the sooner there can be some gradual easing of restrictions.


  • #4604
    Rodin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,130 ✭✭✭Rodin


    easypazz wrote: »
    It is new cases and ICU beds that matters.

    The active cases number is irrelevant.

    If the active cases is going up, having previously fallen, then that is because the new cases are increasing.
    There is a direct correlation.


  • #4605
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Concretejungle wrote: »
    So if the testing is not ready yet then we are not where we need to be, which will mean more deaths if the restrictions are lifted.
    So which is the better way of destroying our lives, destroying them permanently by lifting the restrictions now or destroying them temporarily by waiting a bit longer. ?
    The testing is ready, just not at the level they'll feel comfortable with. How it can responds in real time with a new definition is the real test. It seems adequate enough for what we have at present but needs to get the turnaround to the desired 24 hours.


  • #4606
    Rodin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,130 ✭✭✭Rodin


    GazzaL wrote: »
    It is a fact that the HSE have failed to meet their testing targets. They are the only numbers that jump off the page. We are where we need to be. The HSE are not where they need to be. But who wants yet another HSE scandal? So blame someone else or some other figures. We'll all be in our graves before the problems in the HSE are solved, so why should we allow them to destroy everyone's lives?

    What would you do if you were in charge ?
    A few points....


  • #4607
    ChikiChiki
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,949 ✭✭✭ChikiChiki


    Theboinkmaster wrote: »
    building providers, engineering firms.

    Why wouldn't they open up? The risk on Tuesday is actually a lot less than what the risk will be in 3 months time when a lot more open.

    Open today/open in 3 weeks - no difference.

    lockdown is killing more people than CV-19 that's obvious.

    What a pile of nonsense. Back up your last sentence with some facts please.


  • #4608
    cython
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,822 ✭✭✭cython


    Rodin wrote: »
    If the active cases is going up, having previously fallen, then that is because the new cases are increasing.
    There is a direct correlation.

    No such conclusion can be actually be drawn in Ireland due to the way they are counted. Nobody is tested to confirm a recovered status, and pretty much everyone that was diagnosed was assumed active until a few days ago when they seem to have just asserted as a once off that a cohort were recovered, which chopped the number, and since then they've just continued adding new ones, and not yet made another such assertion of recovery.


  • #4609
    GazzaL
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,395 ✭✭✭GazzaL


    Concretejungle wrote: »
    So if the testing is not ready yet then we are not where we need to be, which will mean more deaths if the restrictions are lifted.
    So which is the better way of destroying our lives, destroying them permanently by lifting the restrictions now or destroying them temporarily by waiting a bit longer. ?


    They've been talking about 15000 tests per day since mid March if not before. How long will you give the HSE to pull the finger out? Another month and a half? Those incompetents may never hit that target. Meanwhile, people can't see their families, jobs and businesses are being permanently lost, and people aren't getting treatment for non-COVID illnesses.


  • #4610
    facehugger99
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,824 ✭✭✭facehugger99


    BillyBiggs wrote: »
    Dr. Leo softening us up for more lockdown

    https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0429/1135508-restrictions-work/

    What an absolute crock.

    How many deaths and ICU admissions are due to the nursing homes fiasco?

    Now they're using their own mismanagement to justify extending the current lockdown for further weeks.


  • #4611
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Rodin wrote: »
    If the active cases is going up, having previously fallen, then that is because the new cases are increasing.
    There is a direct correlation.
    Active cases = Total Cases - Deaths - Recovered.

    Because our Recovered figures are not gathered or updated day-to-day, our "active" figure has little merit.

    It halved overnight last week. So in our case, our active cases number tells us nothing. It will only go down if more people die than are diagnosed. And that would be a very bad thing.


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  • #4612
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Concretejungle wrote: »
    So if the testing is not ready yet then we are not where we need to be, which will mean more deaths if the restrictions are lifted.
    So which is the better way of destroying our lives, destroying them permanently by lifting the restrictions now or destroying them temporarily by waiting a bit longer. ?

    How long is waiting a bit longer?


  • #4613
    polesheep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,950 ✭✭✭polesheep


    Concretejungle wrote: »
    Why would you think that we are being told that we are not where we need to be.
    Do you not think that the Govt. would be deligted to ease the restrictions if they thought that was a good idea. They know the public are fed up and wouldn't that be a great way to get brownie points by doing what the public want. They obviously know better and we have to respect that.

    They are covering for the debacle in the nursing homes.

    As for the bit in bold, there's a fine line between compliance and non-compliance.


  • #4614
    FishOnABike
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    GazzaL wrote: »
    I've been getting emails from companies this morning saying they're planning on re-opening on Tuesday.

    What they're planning now and what happens may not be the same - "Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."


  • #4615
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 3,656 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    road_high wrote: »
    Who are? If They’re not on the important list surely they can’t? And anyone selling is caught by the 2km roadblocks anyhow

    I got a call yesterday from my water filtration suppliers (something I got 4years ago as I live in a very hard water area). They’re in my area next week and are wondering if I needed a service for this system. As I’ve always been working I’ve never yet got it serviced as someone needs to be home.

    Delighted to be able to get this done at last, Service Engineer will be fully compliant with masking ,gloves, social distancing . I’ll stay out in the garden for the duration. I’m delighted to be able to give them some business too as it’s an Irish company.


    Also had to buy a new washing machine as I’ve been 3 weeks without one. Got one today on Harvey Norman with extra 10% discount. Got a call from their sales manager 20 minutes after ordering to confirm delivery before the weekend, brilliant service!

    Businesses are getting back into the game even if it’s a changed game . I for one applaud their positivity, customer service and courage. It sure beats the negativity of some posters here who would like to see the entire country locked up until next Winter.


  • #4616
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    growleaves wrote: »
    If deaths in non-locked down countries such as Sweden were substantially higher - in line with predictions given in the models by Fauci-Birx, Ferugson-Imperial Team or Prof Nolan, or with the more vague prediction that countries who didn't lock down would be 'like Italy' (meaning they would have a Lombardy or Madrid type crisis).

    Then I would believe it.

    Because so far the success of the lockdown is assumed - in which case it can't be (un)proven - against flawed projections of 100,000s of deaths with no lockdown.

    We've seen that the people who have died are the elderly, vulnerable, very sick people who might have died during H1N1, Swine Flu or any similar disease. For the projections to even make sense, healthy able-bodied people should be well-represented within the current deaths, which of course they aren't.

    Sweden have not done nothing. In addition they tend to comply with the directives that are there, have a good sense of social responsibility and there fore wont head to the bar when not feeling feel, and they tend to live alone a lot more than most places in Europe. The Swedish model is not a picture of what would have happened here if we did nothing


  • #4617
    polesheep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,950 ✭✭✭polesheep


    GazzaL wrote: »
    It is a fact that the HSE have failed to meet their testing targets. They are the only numbers that jump off the page. We are where we need to be. The HSE are not where they need to be. But who wants yet another HSE scandal? So blame someone else or some other figures. We'll all be in our graves before the problems in the HSE are solved, so why should we allow them to destroy everyone's lives?

    I think we have to stop thinking about 'problems in the HSE', because the problem IS the HSE. It should never have been established in it's current form. It needs to be broken down into a number of parts. I don't mean regionally, that was also a disaster, I mean functionally.


  • #4618
    Theboinkmaster
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,052 ✭✭✭Theboinkmaster


    ChikiChiki wrote: »
    What a pile of nonsense. Back up your last sentence with some facts please.

    Which exact part is nonsense? what do you disagree with and why exactly?


  • #4619
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    growleaves wrote: »
    They're already adding in not only people who "died from" and "died with" Covid (i.e. the tested) but also "dying under suspicion of" having Covid. Untested deaths are a part of this total. Are you unaware of that? How many more can there be if they are already including people who might not even have had it.



    False. You are assuming the success of the lockdown, and then using that as a retroactive justification for it.

    The projections which estimated millions of deaths were revised downwards by the scientists who made them. The Fauci-Birx team, the Imperial College London team etc. predicted millions of deaths then retracted those predictions in the face of further evidence.

    The evidence being the success of the lockdowns


  • #4620
    Henry Ford III
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 17,945 Mod ✭✭✭✭Henry Ford III


    Just because we want an easing of restrictions doesn't mean it's a good idea.

    If you think about it it's not in Ireland's interest economically to have these restrictions in place a day longer than necessary. They are costing a lot of money.

    Any lengthening of them must be purely a health decision. Dr. Holohan knows more about this virus than any of us and his recommendations are fine by me.


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  • #4621
    PMBC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,117 ✭✭✭PMBC


    Their main problem was lack of up to date instrumentation and having people who know how to work it. They increased testing around the country in something like 40 labs but a lot of these are POC or point of care even the gear in their main labs is only medium sized.[/QUOTE]

    What does that mean in practical terms -POC?
    Thanks for a very informative post.


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