Relaxation of restrictions Part II

thegetawaycar · 29-04-2020 12:06PM

I expect that we'll see outdoor work re-open May 5th and little after that.

I'm not sure what people are expecting, the numbers are still high and are not stable (up one day, down the next).
It will be a long time before pubs/gyms will be open so if people were expecting that it's fantasy stuff.

Social distancing is here to stay for the time being so wanting the government allow you to possibly infect other people (and vice versa) seems to be what people want.

The restrictions are there because of the (potential) consequences of not following them not to hold people back from their daily lives.

The airport is still open but most flights are cancelled because there is no demand and countries are putting quarantine in place for incoming passengers so the companies would lose even more if they ran the flights.

The 2km travel is supposed to be for exercise, maybe it's relaxed to 5km but it's just a number to keep spread within a community. Again, wanting to be allowed go to holiday homes to potentially spread to new communities, meet family members 50km away (so you can stay 2 metres apart) go to packed scenic areas where it's impossible to distance seems to be the want of many.

Having said that, I do hope the cocooning population are encouraged to get some exercise and even if specific times are given to allow those safely go out (masks etc...) it would be nice.

Penfailed · 29-04-2020 12:06PM

jonnny68 wrote: »

People from up north can come over the border and go on day trips here without the garda doing anything,Bulgarian fruit pickers can travel on a packed plane to come into this country to pick strawberry's, so if Leo and co think that people are going to remain under lockdown and this 2km restrictions then they'll be sorely mistaken.

G'wan ye rebel! You know those fruit pickers were quarantined for 14 days after they arrived yeah? The number of people coming down from NI is minimal.

easypazz · 29-04-2020 12:09PM

endacl wrote: »

Just on this last point.

I have personal knowledge of a person who started feeling really unwell (nausea/vomiting/other unpleasantness) about a month ago. His family contacted the GP two weeks ago. There was a phone consultation, whereupon the doctor decided it sounded serious enough for a visit. A physical exam resulted in an immediate ambulance to the Beacon (as a public patient) where tests revealed early stage bowel cancer. The following day he had surgery, and is doing really well. He'll be discharged tomorrow with follow up treatment to follow.

The world hasn't stopped turning. It's just turning slightly differently. If treatment is urgent it's being delivered.

Yes but that will not be the case for everybody. A lot of people won't go near a doctor or hospital at the moment due to the virus and a serious illness will be missed.

Also people sometimes go to doctor / hospital for something small and then a bigger issue is discovered.

This is not happening at the moment.

It has been acknowledged in the department of health that people are afraid to go to doctors and hospitals and that this is a problem.

is_that_so · 29-04-2020 12:09PM

Rodin wrote: »

Angry and pissed off when they sit on their arses at home putting on weight while others do the fighting on the front line?

Should be given a tour of the ICUs around the country or made to log on to every webcammed funeral for a victim.

Some need a bit of perspective.

Just as some need to stop using selective empathy to cast judgement on others. Some are mentally having a very hard time with this.

growleaves · 29-04-2020 12:11PM

What level of deaths would have worked for you, not to think this?

If deaths in non-locked down countries such as Sweden were substantially higher - in line with predictions given in the models by Fauci-Birx, Ferugson-Imperial Team or Prof Nolan, or with the more vague prediction that countries who didn't lock down would be 'like Italy' (meaning they would have a Lombardy or Madrid type crisis).

Then I would believe it.

Because so far the success of the lockdown is assumed - in which case it can't be (un)proven - against flawed projections of 100,000s of deaths with no lockdown.

We've seen that the people who have died are the elderly, vulnerable, very sick people who might have died during H1N1, Swine Flu or any similar disease. For the projections to even make sense, healthy able-bodied people should be well-represented within the current deaths, which of course they aren't.

Tenzor07 · 29-04-2020 12:12PM

Read about the Stockdale paradox this morning, seems to apply to our current situation:

In the most simplest explanation of this paradox, it's the idea of hoping for the best, but acknowledging and preparing for the worst.

"Who didn't make it out?"
"Oh, that's easy," he said. "The optimists."
"The optimists? I don't understand," I said, now completely confused,
given what he'd said a hundred meters earlier.
"The optimists. Oh, they were the ones who said, 'We're going to be out by
Christmas.' And Christmas would come, and Christmas would go. Then
they'd say,'We're going to be out by Easter.' And Easter would come, and
Easter would go. And then Thanksgiving, and then it would be Christmas
again. And they died of a broken heart."

Rodin · 29-04-2020 12:14PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Just as some need to stop using selective empathy to cast judgement on others. Some are mentally having a very hard time with this.

They could always volunteer to help out with a critical service...

KrustyUCC · 29-04-2020 12:16PM

Rodin wrote: »

Angry and pissed off when they sit on their arses at home putting on weight while others do the fighting on the front line?

Should be given a tour of the ICUs around the country or made to log on to every webcammed funeral for a victim.

Some need a bit of perspective.

What a post

Some perspective you have indeed

So everybody who isn't a frontline worker is sitting on their arse at home and putting on weight?

What's a frontline worker to you?

How about garbage men?
Shopkeepers?
Pharmacists?
Delivery drivers?

growleaves · 29-04-2020 12:16PM

This is a fraudulent comparison, you are comparing estimated deaths of people most of whom were not testing in a lab for flu with deaths of people tested for Covid19. The actual number who died from Covid19 is much higher than this.

They're already adding in not only people who "died from" and "died with" Covid (i.e. the tested) but also "dying under suspicion of" having Covid. Untested deaths are a part of this total. Are you unaware of that? How many more can there be if they are already including people who might not even have had it.

It is also nonsense because the Covid19 deaths were only so low because of the lockdown, without that millions would be dead, so you are using the success of the lockdown as a reason not to have it, which is truly bizarre.

False. You are assuming the success of the lockdown, and then using that as a retroactive justification for it.

The projections which estimated millions of deaths were revised downwards by the scientists who made them. The Fauci-Birx team, the Imperial College London team etc. predicted millions of deaths then retracted those predictions in the face of further evidence.

amandstu · 29-04-2020 12:17PM

Rodin wrote: »

They could always volunteer to help out with a critical service...

Wonder if that applies to the over 70's.....

I read stories about doctors still working in their very old age...is that in Ireland?

GazzaL · 29-04-2020 12:17PM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

People are talking here as if the Irish government has some different policy from other places like Poland. It does not, it has an equal willingness to reopen things but it has different data. Poland has half the deaths of Ireland with 7 times the population and only half the number of new cases at present. We are where we are, we cannot wish we were somewhere else and we just have to get on with it and not make any more mistakes.

Issuing a plan is fine but they need to identify the data that will be needed to justify each step.

The numbers aren't directly comparable unless you attach major caveats. If we're testing more than Poland, it stands to reason that we will have more cases. We're counting deaths in nursing homes and "possible" deaths, while a lot of countries aren't counting either. Some of our death figures may not even have had COVID-19! It's apples and oranges.

We've been told that hospital admissions and ICU admissions are continually decreasing. There's significant capacity there now. They can't get away with extending restrictions by throwing their hands up in the air and exclaiming "oh, it's the numbers!". The only numbers that aren't up to scratch are the HSE's testing numbers, which they have consistently failed to achieve. They don't want to take the blame for that though, so they'll try to deflect and fabricate some other issue. They need to be held to account.

Rodin · 29-04-2020 12:19PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

What a post

Some perspective you have indeed

So everybody who isn't a frontline worker is sitting on their arse at home and putting on weight?

What's a frontline worker to you?

How about garbage men?
Shopkeepers?
Pharmacists?
Delivery drivers?

Direct healthcare provision is frontline for me.
All of those others are near the frontline. Very important and vital to our services
Many however are sitting at home watching Netflix giving out about how things are being done.

snotboogie · 29-04-2020 12:19PM

is_that_so wrote: »

I know of offices who are back in next week and of others planning for some increased activity in May.

In that case they are either essential workers or flouting government regulations. Normal office work won't be returning next month.

GazzaL · 29-04-2020 12:20PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

And yet every small business that is allowed to open, from petrol stations to corner shops, are managing to operate fine.

Most small businesses don't have a hundred people coming through the door at one time. It's pretty straightforward to manage!

retro:electro · 29-04-2020 12:21PM

thegetawaycar wrote: »

I expect that we'll see outdoor work re-open May 5th and little after that.

I'm not sure what people are expecting, the numbers are still high and are not stable (up one day, down the next).
It will be a long time before pubs/gyms will be open so if people were expecting that it's fantasy stuff.

Literally no one is expecting that? Why does the want for an approach that allows the light lifting of some restrictions automatically translate to open the pubs and let us all out on the lash for some people? I am 100% behind lifting restrictions in a sensible way, but I think it would be absolute madness to have the pubs open this side of summer. During the lockdown we have all adapted to a new way of living and have modified our behaviour enough to approach this new way of life Those behaviours will all fall by the wayside once people are drunk and in a pub, so of course it goes without saying that pubs reopening needs to be down the very bottom of any list.

Most people want the 2k limit lifted, to be able to see family, even to chat in the garden for an hour a week. I want to be able to visit my sister or to kick a ball in the garden with my nieces without some neighbour calling the guards or being shamed on social media for it.

Then after that small business who can manage to operate in way that incorporates social distancing should be allowed to open. Places like hair salons and beauticians should be allowed to operate on a one in one out system, with clients and workers wearing gloves and masks, and the chairs completely sanitised after each customer. These places are hanging on by a hair and are coming closer to having to close fully with each passing week.

mandrake04 · 29-04-2020 12:21PM

Downlinz wrote: »

It's amazing how some people seem to think the lockdown is to blame for the economic problem and not the virus. :pac:

I don't think you guys have quite processed what trying to run a business would be like in a society of fear with staff dropping like flies for various reasons.
The manager of a nursing home was on radio 1 this morning explaining how 1/3rd of their regular staff were unavailable to work either because they have the virus, they're in a vulnerable group and need to cocoon or they live with someone cocooning. Imagine the kind of chaos that would ensue if that was the sort of picture every restaurant, hardware shop etc had to deal with.

Supermarkets have had to recruit a significant number of extra staff as well just to deal with it. It would be farcical to think small business could operate in that kind of environment.

This is why they want to ‘flatten the curve’ if too many people come down sick at once then the whole fabric of society breaks down.

Like imagine your local supermarket, if 75% of the staff were sick at the same time how could it fully operate?, imagine 60-70% of the Garda sick? Prison staff? firemen? doctors? Nurses? etc if you have too many sick at once you have complete community chaos and a danger of tipping your health system into meltdown due to huge number of hospitalisations.

But like the name suggests flatten, the peak is pushed down but the bottom spreads out likes a squashed ****e, So you still have infections growth but over a longer timeframe and the longer you need to flatten the longer you need restrictions.

If you have a need to return to somewhat normal conditions then flattening the curve is no good, you need full on suppression.

ixoy · 29-04-2020 12:21PM

Rodin wrote: »

Direct healthcare provision is frontline for me.
All of those others are near the frontline. Very important and vital to our services
Many however are sitting at home watching Netflix giving out about how things are being done.

Some are. And some of those want to do things - including working and bettering their own health - but aren't able to because the restrictions are in place and they're hoping for a plan that lets them have more purpose.

easypazz · 29-04-2020 12:25PM

Rodin wrote: »

Angry and pissed off when they sit on their arses at home putting on weight while others do the fighting on the front line?

Should be given a tour of the ICUs around the country or made to log on to every webcammed funeral for a victim.

Some need a bit of perspective.

Seriously?

This will never be as simple as lockdown forever until its all gone away.

That's a bit like saying dig up the roads forever so people don't die in car crashes.

We need to move on from this phase and accept a certain level of death / ICU / new cases etc.

Thelonious Monk · 29-04-2020 12:26PM

retro:electro wrote: »

=Places like hair salons and beauticians should be allowed to operate on a one in one out system, with clients and workers wearing gloves and masks, and the chairs completely sanitised after each customer. These places are hanging on by a hair and are coming closer to having to close fully with each passing week.

Many places like that wouldn't survive on a one in one out basis though. Same with restaurants and pubs etc, many are loosely hanging on as you say, and having minimum customers won't be enough to keep them going. It'll be a tough couple of years I think.

ELM327 · 29-04-2020 12:31PM

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Family, friends.

Humans are not built for this level of restriction. Social creatures and all that.

Perhaps we should tell that to Mr Rona?

This is perhaps also why I'm not as affected by this as others. I hate people, socialise with friends on an odd occasion but mostly online. I work in finance on the risk data analytics side, so can work from home (same as before rona, we had the option anyway) with no impact. My team is global, recently hired people in Singapore.

Multipass · 29-04-2020 12:33PM

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Many places like that wouldn't survive on a one in one out basis though. Same with restaurants and pubs etc, many are loosely hanging on as you say, and having minimum customers won't be enough to keep them going. It'll be a tough couple of years I think.

And if they do survive it will be by laying off all of their staff. The people sitting at home on 350 right now should think about a future on 200 per week.

Rodin · 29-04-2020 12:34PM

easypazz wrote: »

Seriously?

This will never be as simple as lockdown forever until its all gone away.

That's a bit like saying dig up the roads forever so people don't die in car crashes.

We need to move on from this phase and accept a certain level of death / ICU / new cases etc.

Of course we need to move on.
But not when the active number of cases is going up having previously been on the decline.

GazzaL · 29-04-2020 12:37PM

Multipass wrote: »

And if they do survive it will be by laying off all of their staff. The people sitting at home on 350 right now should think about a future on 200 per week.

If we continue down the path of economic destruction, people can probably forget about €200 per week too. We might match the UKs equivalent of €83.50 per week.

29-04-2020 12:37PM

retro:electro wrote: »

Literally no one is expecting that? Why does the want for an approach that allows the light lifting of some restrictions automatically translate to open the pubs and let us all out on the lash for some people? I am 100% behind lifting restrictions in a sensible way, but I think it would be absolute madness to have the pubs open this side of summer. During the lockdown we have all adapted to a new way of living and have modified our behaviour enough to approach this new way of life Those behaviours will all fall by the wayside once people are drunk and in a pub, so of course it goes without saying that pubs reopening needs to be down the very bottom of any list.

Most people want the 2k limit lifted, to be able to see family, even to chat in the garden for an hour a week. I want to be able to visit my sister or to kick a ball in the garden with my nieces without some neighbour calling the guards or being shamed on social media for it.

Then after that small business who can manage to operate in way that incorporates social distancing should be allowed to open. Places like hair salons and beauticians should be allowed to operate on a one in one out system, with clients and workers wearing gloves and masks, and the chairs completely sanitised after each customer. These places are hanging on by a hair and are coming closer to having to close fully with each passing week.

this is exactly it

Thelonious Monk · 29-04-2020 12:40PM

GazzaL wrote: »

If we continue down the path of economic destruction, people can probably forget about €200 per week too. We might match the UKs equivalent of €83.50 per week.

There are many posters on boards who would love if our welfare payments were that low

Tenzor07 · 29-04-2020 12:43PM

mandrake04 wrote: »

This is why they want to ‘flatten the curve’ if too many people come down sick at once then the whole fabric of society breaks down.
But like the name suggests flatten, the peak is pushed down but the bottom spreads out likes a squashed ****e, So you still have infections growth but over a longer timeframe and the longer you need to flatten the longer you need restrictions.
If you have a need to return to somewhat normal conditions then flattening the curve is no good, you need full on suppression.

This mantra we're told of "flattening the curve" flattening the curve doesn't mean that cases disappear -- they are just moved in time.

If the Govt./HSE aren't going to test private healthcare staff, send them PPE and provide backup care staff then what's the point of locking up the healthy?

seamus · 29-04-2020 12:45PM

easypazz wrote: »

Yes but that will not be the case for everybody. A lot of people won't go near a doctor or hospital at the moment due to the virus and a serious illness will be missed.

Also people sometimes go to doctor / hospital for something small and then a bigger issue is discovered.

This is not happening at the moment.

It has been acknowledged in the department of health that people are afraid to go to doctors and hospitals and that this is a problem.

There's going to be a lot to unpack over the coming years.

A family friend went into hospital with a sudden cough last week, suspected Covid. Tested negative, went for a CT and found cancer instead.

If we were in normal times, that person probably wouldn't have even darkened their GPs door until they'd fought the cough for six weeks and couldn't shake it.

So I think we will see a jump in the detection of certain illnesses, and a slew of others missed.

For example, doctors around the world are reporting a jump in cases of a rare childhood illness. Some of the symptoms overlap with Covid. There's obvious concern that there's a link. But it could also just be correlation; ordinarily these children would be treated at home with calpol and TV, but because people are hyper vigilant, the kids are appearing in hospitals.

Tenzor07 · 29-04-2020 12:48PM

retro:electro wrote: »

Then after that small business who can manage to operate in way that incorporates social distancing should be allowed to open. Places like hair salons and beauticians should be allowed to operate on a one in one out system, with clients and workers wearing gloves and masks, and the chairs completely sanitised after each customer. These places are hanging on by a hair and are coming closer to having to close fully with each passing week.

The only way your suggestion could work is if the state were to subsidise staff wages and rents, and councils were to slash rates almost completely.

Just like with flights, Ryanair's entire business model is based on full occupancy, start removing seats and flying with half numbers and the company would be bankrupt in weeks...

is_that_so · 29-04-2020 12:49PM

Thought this was worth a read on whose coronavirus strategy worked best.

Like everything else about this, still an unknown.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01248-1

easypazz · 29-04-2020 12:49PM

Rodin wrote: »

Of course we need to move on.
But not when the active number of cases is going up having previously been on the decline.

It is new cases and ICU beds that matters.

The active cases number is irrelevant.

Relaxation of restrictions Part II

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