Relaxation of restrictions Part II

thegetawaycar

GazzaL wrote: »

If we continue down the path of economic destruction, people can probably forget about €200 per week too. We might match the UKs equivalent of €83.50 per week.

Or the ECB print money and give it to the euro member countries (I understand this devalues the currency) to use as part of welfare support, that won't last forever but it will mean that there is money to be spent in the economy when restrictions are lifted.

The problem I see is lots of small chains and sole traders closing but as there is cash to be spent they will be replaced by generic places that can afford it or can pay large capital to alter how they work/the work space itself.

If the Euro is worth less it encourages more buying domestically as imports are more expensive, this is good for jobs here, manufacturing here and the environment.

GazzaL

easypazz wrote: »

It is new cases and ICU beds that matters.

The active cases number is irrelevant.

The active cases is a nonsense figure because we don't test people to check if they are recovered, they're just assumed to be recovered. It's not like in some other countries where someone is tested at least 3 times once their symptoms are gone. Again, apples and oranges.

The new cases figure also isn't directly comparable with other countries because of different testing rates. Similarly the deaths figures, because we count deaths outside of hospitals and "possible" deaths where other countries don't.

We have to be very careful about how numbers are interpreted.

The ICU capacity is important. R0 is important.

ChikiChiki

ELM327 wrote: »

Perhaps we should tell that to Mr Rona?


This is perhaps also why I'm not as affected by this as others. I hate people, socialise with friends on an odd occasion but mostly online. I work in finance on the risk data analytics side, so can work from home (same as before rona, we had the option anyway) with no impact. My team is global, recently hired people in Singapore.

Slightly patronising.

I'm similar to yourself so. Introverted, busy managing finance projects, a good weekly. And we are hiring.

But I have empathy. This is cruel on some people and has to be acknowledged.

Thelonious Monk

My Dad is delighted as from Saturday he can go out for an hour a day to exercise, walking, on bike etc, in Spain. He's 70 today.
They've been indoors for weeks on end now. So for all this talk of other countries lifting restrictions, even with restrictions lifted Spain is still far more locked down than we ever were, and people don't seem to be rioting there - how could you complain when you see the devastation that it has caused in their hospitals.

alwald

GazzaL wrote: »

The ICU capacity is important. R0 is important.

Yep they are important hence why most restrictions won't be lifted soon as we need to lower them further.

BillyBiggs

Dr. Leo softening us up for more lockdown

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0429/1135508-restrictions-work/

timmy_mallet

thegetawaycar wrote: »

Or the ECB print money and give it to the euro member countries (I understand this devalues the currency) to use as part of welfare support, that won't last forever but it will mean that there is money to be spent in the economy when restrictions are lifted.

The problem I see is lots of small chains and sole traders closing but as there is cash to be spent they will be replaced by generic places that can afford it or can pay large capital to alter how they work/the work space itself.

If the Euro is worth less it encourages more buying domestically as imports are more expensive, this is good for jobs here, manufacturing here and the environment.

What manufacturing? The length of time it takes to invest and create the infrastructure to manufacture won't be workable.

Printing money at this level to give to people to spend will create massive inflation. Simple as that.

mandrake04

Tenzor07 wrote: »

This mantra we're told of "flattening the curve" flattening the curve doesn't mean that cases disappear -- they are just moved in time.

That’s exactly what I’m saying, flattening is like standing on a lump of dog shite it goes from a small lump to spreads out all over the sole of your shoe.

GazzaL

BillyBiggs wrote: »

Dr. Leo softening us up for more lockdown

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0429/1135508-restrictions-work/

I've been getting emails from companies this morning saying they're planning on re-opening on Tuesday.

mandrake04

BillyBiggs wrote: »

Dr. Leo softening us up for more lockdown

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0429/1135508-restrictions-work/

Yeah seen same on Joe.ie, I would say they know more than they are letting on and it’s bad news.

BillyBiggs

GazzaL wrote: »

I've been getting emails from companies this morning saying they're planning on re-opening on Tuesday.

Fat chance of that now I’d say. The Irish economy will be in tatters.

GazzaL

alwald wrote: »

Yep they are important hence why most restrictions won't be lifted soon as we need to lower them further.

R0 has been in the target zone for weeks and steadily decreasing. We never hit full ICU capacity, and both ICU occupancy and hospital admissions have been declining for weeks. They are where they need to be. Unless you're telling me they've lied about our R0 and ICU figures?

BillyBiggs

“Eternal Lockdown of the Senseless Mind.”

road_high

Multipass wrote: »

And if they do survive it will be by laying off all of their staff. The people sitting at home on 350 right now should think about a future on 200 per week.

Or less. And many should be planning for that too. Lots of them online, have to say predominantly women, with the “foreva lockdown” / saving lives line.
I genuinely think there’s a massive proportion of people believe the €350 will be around forever too, so long as “dis virus is out dere”- the government aren’t being honest at all on this front with either its duration or the price to be paid soon after.
Not more nonsense from the Taoiseach on Friday night- real figures

timmy_mallet

BillyBiggs wrote: »

Fat chance of that now I’d say. The Irish economy will be in tatters.

Correct. And the longer term health implications of that are feasibly comparable with what's going on now.

Get the foodbanks ready. Start putting bars on your windows if you have a nice TV. We're in this for the long-haul, and its going to massively increase wealth inequality. What a disaster.

Ronaldinho

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Printing money at this level to give to people to spend will create massive inflation. Simple as that.

Hor$e****. Polls show that people would use any handouts to buy essentials and to pay down debt.

Look at how depressed HICP remained over the past 5+ years, with ample consumer credit available and a tight labour market.

road_high

GazzaL wrote: »

I've been getting emails from companies this morning saying they're planning on re-opening on Tuesday.

If at all. I thought 6 weeks, two months tops this could go on.

GazzaL

road_high wrote: »

Or less. And many should be planning for that too. Lots of them online, have to say predominantly women, with the “foreva lockdown” / saving lives line.
I genuinely think there’s a massive proportion of people believe the €350 will be around forever too, so long as “dis virus is out dere”- the government aren’t being honest at all on this front with either its duration or the price to be paid soon after.
Not more nonsense from the Taoiseach on Friday night- real figures

De Facebuke luvvies. They are away with the fairies.

Down9194

BillyBiggs wrote: »

Fat chance of that now I’d say. The Irish economy will be in tatters.

Like I said previously FG don't care as they won't be around to clean up the mess

timmy_mallet

Ronaldinho wrote: »

Hor$e****. Polls show that people would use any handouts to buy essentials and to pay down debt.

Look at how depressed HICP remained over the past 5+ years, with ample consumer credit available and a tight labour market.

Are you comparing 5+ years of large growth with a global pandemic and a massive money printing exercise?

is_that_so

Spain's 4 phase plan -clear path. Not absolutely set in stone on dates and there are some approximate dates in it.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0429/1135574-spain-details-four-phase-plan-to-ease-lockdown/

road_high

GazzaL wrote: »

De Facebuke luvvies. They are away with the fairies.

....Whining that McDonald’s are reopening- they’ll be first in the queue when it does!
It’s a shame we don’t teach economics in primary school, there’s a massive void there

endacl

easypazz wrote: »

Yes but that will not be the case for everybody. A lot of people won't go near a doctor or hospital at the moment due to the virus and a serious illness will be missed.

Also people sometimes go to doctor / hospital for something small and then a bigger issue is discovered.

This is not happening at the moment.

It has been acknowledged in the department of health that people are afraid to go to doctors and hospitals and that this is a problem.

That's a problem of communication though. Not of service delivery.

uli84

GazzaL wrote: »

R0 has been in the target zone for weeks and steadily decreasing. We never hit full ICU capacity, and both ICU occupancy and hospital admissions have been declining for weeks. They are where they need to be. Unless you're telling me they've lied about our R0 and ICU figures?

Also started wondering if im missing something ...

is_that_so

Down9194 wrote: »

Like I said previously FG don't care as they won't be around to clean up the mess

They actually will, for as long as the next government lasts.

road_high

is_that_so wrote: »

They actually will, for as long as the next government lasts.

There’s no one else queuing up to do the hard work. I blast FG here at times but what is else is in the Dáil are absolute cabbages

Theboinkmaster

GazzaL wrote: »

I've been getting emails from companies this morning saying they're planning on re-opening on Tuesday.

yes I agree a lot of companies are just opening up anyway - which I agree with.

Concretejungle

GazzaL wrote: »

R0 has been in the target zone for weeks and steadily decreasing. We never hit full ICU capacity, and both ICU occupancy and hospital admissions have been declining for weeks. They are where they need to be. Unless you're telling me they've lied about our R0 and ICU figures?

Why would you think that we are being told that we are not where we need to be.
Do you not think that the Govt. would be deligted to ease the restrictions if they thought that was a good idea. They know the public are fed up and wouldn't that be a great way to get brownie points by doing what the public want. They obviously know better and we have to respect that.

GazzaL

road_high wrote: »

There’s no one else queuing up to do the hard work. I blast FG here at times but what is else is in the Dáil are absolute cabbages

Some politicians probably don't want to upset their supporters who are happy with €350 a week.

road_high

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

yes I agree a lot of companies are just opening up anyway - which I agree with.

Who are? If They’re not on the important list surely they can’t? And anyone selling is caught by the 2km roadblocks anyhow