Relaxation of restrictions Part II

GazzaL

Henry Ford III wrote: »

Just because we want an easing of restrictions doesn't mean it's a good idea.

If you think about it it's not in Ireland's interest economically to have these restrictions in place a day longer than necessary. They are costing a lot of money.

Any lengthening of them must be purely a health decision. Dr. Holohan knows more about this virus than any of us and his recommendations are fine by me.

He knows more about cervical checks than the rest of us too. He and the HSE are not above being questioned.

Cyrus

Interesting data here regarding excess mortality over expected over the past 4/5 years.

spoiler alert, we dont have any excess here, although others arent faring so well.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

joseywhales

I dont know what the point of blaming the hse is, do you propose disbanding it mid-pandemic? Will we be in a better position then? they are struggling to get adequate testing numbers like many countries, are we to believe that is because they are not working hard or efficiently enough? Or is it more likely that there is massive global demand for the raw materials required for these tests?

Anyway, whatever our feelings about our institutions, the virus does not care, it will infect where possible, the same as the rain will fall.

Henry Ford III

Henry Ford III wrote: »

Any lengthening of them must be purely a health decision. Dr. Holohan knows more about this virus than any of us and his recommendations are fine by me.

Apologies in advance and not intending to cause any upset but tell Vicky Phelan and Emma Mhic Mathuna (RIP ) that .

alwald

GazzaL wrote: »

R0 has been in the target zone for weeks and steadily decreasing. We never hit full ICU capacity, and both ICU occupancy and hospital admissions have been declining for weeks. They are where they need to be. Unless you're telling me they've lied about our R0 and ICU figures?

Do you have any idea about the current levels, the desired levels and the potential increase if we lift the restrictions??
My guess is you don't have a clue

KrustyUCC

They've had two months to get things right and we're hugely off where we need to be regarding testing

We will still probably be far away from 100,000 tests per week by the 18th as well

Lack of testing is the justification being used for extending the lockdown

It's out of the hands of the general public who Leo and Holohan were blaming for an extension they knew they needed re testing

is_that_so

is_that_so wrote: »

They can't until they can agree to elect a new Taoiseach.

They can, by agreeing to elect a new Taoiseach

snotboogie

is_that_so wrote: »

Spain's 4 phase plan -clear path. Not absolutely set in stone on dates and there are some approximate dates in it.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0429/1135574-spain-details-four-phase-plan-to-ease-lockdown/

Phase 4 is still massively disruptive, are people really that eager to sit in a restaurant 2 meters away from another table or sit on a bar terrace at 30% capacity where you can't go near anyone else?

Penfailed

Penfailed wrote: »

Can you explain the issues in residential hospitals/nursing homes in the UK, in Spain, in Germany? Or even closer to home, in Donegal where there was no transfer of patients? It's not solely down to HSE incompetence.

Is everyone that wants to open up just going to keep battering the HSE over the nursing/care homes? Is anyone going to address what I've pointed out above ^^^?

easypazz

Phased open of pretty much of everything in Spain during May, with capacity reduced.

That includes bars and restaurants.

It will take some effort for the government to try and keep the bars and restaurants closed here in June.

KrustyUCC

Erra a lot really don't care about the pubs

They will have a bigger issue stopping people travelling to see friends, family, those in relationships for another two months I think

mandrake04

PMBC wrote: »

What does that mean in practical terms -POC?
Thanks for a very informative post.

Point of Care.

This is usually just a desktop instrument that you can only do 1 test at a time usually takes anything from 15-45 mins per test.

Your normal Molecular instrument using a Thermocycler or a light cycler can run a 96 well plate. You can do a batch 94 samples plus a Positive and a Negative control to check if it’s successful. Takes 90min for extraction and 90mins for Amplification but you have 94 patient results

The big high throughput Analysers can run several batches simultaneously.

Germany, S. Korea, UAE, NZ & Australia use these high throughput systems as they are a lot of firepower, like 30mm machine gun.

Your POC is like a spud gun in comparison

seamus

joseywhales wrote: »

I dont know what the point of blaming the hse is, do you propose disbanding it mid-pandemic? Will we be in a better position then? they are struggling to get adequate testing numbers like many countries, are we to believe that is because they are not working hard or efficiently enough? Or is it more likely that there is massive global demand for the raw materials required for these tests?

Anyway, whatever our feelings about our institutions, the virus does not care, it will infect where possible, the same as the rain will fall.

Human sentiment is a factor here. Whether the virus cares about it is irrelevant. A lockdown fatigue spreads, more and more people will ignore the restrictions.

Pointing out that the virus doesn't care about people being bored, won't convince them to stick with the restrictions.

If we want people to stick with the restrictions, we need to give them something to aim for. For most people, they've been in lockdown with no end goal in sight. A further lockdown without solid reasoning will lead more people to say, "Feck this, what's the point if I'm being told it's not working?".
Whereas a clearer goal, coupled with a reason for solidarity, will give people a bump for another week; "We need more time, not because you haven't done enough, but because we're just not ready yet, the things we wanted to have in place, have been delayed by the global demand."

EDit

Cyrus wrote: »

Interesting data here regarding excess mortality over expected over the past 4/5 years.

spoiler alert, we dont have any excess here, although others arent faring so well.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

Really interesting stuff. Would love to know theories as to why deaths are below normal for Ireland’s 65 yrs+ group. Is it simply because they are all safely tucked up at home?

Breezin

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Sweden have not done nothing. In addition they tend to comply with the directives that are there, have a good sense of social responsibility and there fore wont head to the bar when not feeling feel, and they tend to live alone a lot more than most places in Europe. The Swedish model is not a picture of what would have happened here if we did nothing

You seem to think we are incapable of change and/or sensible behaviour, and so we deserve to be treated like morons.
I think we would make a good go of the Swedish model, with more targeted enforcement rather than the collective punishment currently being dished out to the 'feckless Irish'

Henry Ford III

GazzaL wrote: »

He knows more about cervical checks than the rest of us too. He and the HSE are not above being questioned.

That very sad issue and Covid19 are of course unrelated wouldn't you agree?

road_high

Breezin wrote: »

You seem to think we are incapable of change and/or sensible behaviour, and so we deserve to be treated like morons.
I think we would make a good go of the Swedish model, with more targeted enforcement rather than the collective punishment currently being dished out to the 'feckless Irish'

We are largely a very compliant nation- I don’t agree with every aspect and especially the duration of this severe lockdown but there is a fairly strong sense of collective responsibility in Irish society- considering the scale of the changes we’ve done remarkably well.
“Not wanting to cause any trouble” is a very Irish trait i think

Long_Wave

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Remember when we were asked to stay at home and take sensible precautions and we ended up with every sightseeing location in the country being wedged?

That was just social media Hysteria

GazzaL

https://www.newstalk.com/news/halligan-easing-regional-restrictions-

https://www.offtheball.com/sport/playing-kerry-dubliners-still-locked-coronavirus-1007532

Minister Halligan and Professor McConkey calling for an easing of restrictions, possibly on a regional basis.

road_high

Long_Wave wrote: »

That was just social media Hysteria

Indeed. Was a tiny % of people that in the main had very good intentions- ie fresh air and exercise.

GazzaL

Henry Ford III wrote: »

That very sad issue and Covid19 are of course unrelated wouldn't you agree?

I agree that they're separate issues, but it stands that it's perfectly valid to question the HSE.

the kelt

Henry Ford III wrote: »

That very sad issue and Covid19 are of course unrelated wouldn't you agree?

It depends whether you see a suppression of information or an attempt to withhold information by the HSE and Tony Holohan as a common area of concern in both situations.

Such as the non release of minutes of meetings since the 31st of March for example.

Henry Ford III

the kelt wrote: »

It depends whether you see a suppression of information or an attempt to withhold information by the HSE and Tony Holohan as a common area of concern in both situations.

Such as the non release of minutes of meetings since the 31st of March for example.

Doesn't bother me tbh.

I think the response to this crisis and the way it has been handled compares favourably to certainly the USA and the UK.

JRant

the kelt wrote: »

It depends whether you see a suppression of information or an attempt to withhold information by the HSE and Tony Holohan as a common area of concern in both situations.

Such as the non release of minutes of meetings since the 31st of March for example.

Have they stopped giving the median age of those that died this week as well?
I haven't seen them on the updates but could have missed them.

the kelt

Henry Ford III wrote: »

Doesn't bother me tbh.

I think the response to this crisis and the way it has been handled compares favourably to certainly the USA and the UK.

Each to their own, it was defintely a cause of concern for Vicky Phelan over the weekend.

No offence but not exactly the greatest of benchmarks to measure yourself against.

As long as we are better than Trump and Boris!!

CalamariFritti

Saw that article on RTE about the numbers not being 'good enough'. Was the obvious follow on question addressed? (What is a good enough number?) I didn't see anything about that.

I think another problem is that whether one likes it or not compliance will dwindle very soon if you don't give people 'something'. And then you've manoeuvred yourself into a nasty position. Are you coming in heavy handed, potentially the first country anywhere having to call the army in? Or do you let it go? Which according to your own line isn't actually an option. Not good.

Rodin

GazzaL wrote: »

I agree that they're separate issues, but it stands that it's perfectly valid to question the HSE.

You're one of those people who finds fault but never puts forward any suggestions/ideas

Gael23

How many tests are being done at this point?

RugbyLad11

Henry Ford III wrote: »

Just because we want an easing of restrictions doesn't mean it's a good idea.

If you think about it it's not in Ireland's interest economically to have these restrictions in place a day longer than necessary. They are costing a lot of money.

Any lengthening of them must be purely a health decision. Dr. Holohan knows more about this virus than any of us and his recommendations are fine by me.

This is a new virus, even the worlds top scientist don't know a whole lot. Plus he is not a dr of virology. But yeah obviously he does know more than the average person, but from a medical point of view they will always view the worst case and he will say continue lock down until there is a vaccine.

We need input from other people too, look at Germany they are getting input from scientist, doctors, teacher and mental health experts etc

JRant

Henry Ford III wrote: »

Doesn't bother me tbh.

I think the response to this crisis and the way it has been handled compares favourably to certainly the USA and the UK.

Can't agree there. It's been a poorly managed effort from the start. The restrictions have been poorly planned from the beginning and the exit strategy is none existent.

What key points have they performed well in exactly?