Relaxation of restrictions Part II

marno21 · 28-04-2020 02:09AM

The restrictions will become very difficult to enforce and borderline worthless unless there is a clear roadmap published within the next few days.

2 weeks first until the 29th, then asking people to hunker down for 2 weeks, then just another 3 weeks. Indefinitely extending them with no exit strategy isn't feasible. Harris said on the 28th of March that it would be difficult to have these restrictions for more than 2 weeks. You have to ask how they plan to have them for more than 5 weeks.

I'm not really sure what extending the current restrictions beyond May 5th will acheive. The vast majority of people have been compliant on the basis that these were a temporary measure, and much of the issues caused to date has been in environments which have seen failure but not by the general public. The general public is not responsible for the mess that the nursing homes situation has become.

There needs to be at least some leeway given on the 5th, even something minor to help people cope with this. The people around here who are in favour of continuous lockdown seem to be unaware of the effect that the lockdown is having on the general public. It's also going to be the cause of longer term issues of people avoiding the healthcare system when they are being faced with very preventable and treatable medical conditions.

And that's before we talk about the vast numbers of unemployed and how unsustainable this is. And before someone pipes up about health vs "the economy". Lets not forget that the reason we have such amazing life expectancy and general healthcare outcomes is because of the economy. The HSE don't have a money tree, no matter how much they believe they do at times.

Zx6rdub · 28-04-2020 02:36AM

I'm hgv driver. Have not stopped in 5 weeks, iv slept and lived from my truck Sunday am to Friday pm. My usual shift has stopped, many agencie staff gone, left to me an others in the trade to do our part.

I'd love nothing more then to go fishing with me aul lad, go park an watch me ma with my kids.

I can't. Cause you need grub.
A month ago everyone on this site was all for eire. Now moaning about no pre planned fornight planner.

I'd happily sit on me arse if one of you muppets want to drive the truck?

Eire me ballox. If you can't listen to guidelines to the 5th, with a world pandemic. I may aswel quit an get the 350

Ferris_Bueller · 28-04-2020 02:38AM

marno21 wrote: »

The restrictions will become very difficult to enforce and borderline worthless unless there is a clear roadmap published within the next few days.

2 weeks first until the 29th, then asking people to hunker down for 2 weeks, then just another 3 weeks. Indefinitely extending them with no exit strategy isn't feasible. Harris said on the 28th of March that it would be difficult to have these restrictions for more than 2 weeks. You have to ask how they plan to have them for more than 5 weeks.

I'm not really sure what extending the current restrictions beyond May 5th will acheive. The vast majority of people have been compliant on the basis that these were a temporary measure, and much of the issues caused to date has been in environments which have seen failure but not by the general public. The general public is not responsible for the mess that the nursing homes situation has become.

There needs to be at least some leeway given on the 5th, even something minor to help people cope with this. The people around here who are in favour of continuous lockdown seem to be unaware of the effect that the lockdown is having on the general public. It's also going to be the cause of longer term issues of people avoiding the healthcare system when they are being faced with very preventable and treatable medical conditions.

And that's before we talk about the vast numbers of unemployed and how unsustainable this is. And before someone pipes up about health vs "the economy". Lets not forget that the reason we have such amazing life expectancy and general healthcare outcomes is because of the economy. The HSE don't have a money tree, no matter how much they believe they do at times.

Yep I agree, I think above all else they need to be extremely clear and transparent with their announcement on Friday or whenever it may be. At least the Irish Times article above did mention that a road map would be announced, without one I think people would lose patience completely.

I do wonder what improvements they expect to see in say two weeks time if they extend the lockdown by another two weeks. People are only going to get less and less compliant as the days go on. If we have not been able to get the numbers down to an acceptable level in the past 5 weeks I struggle to see how they plan on getting them down in the next two or three weeks (speculating that they will extend for this long).

Kermit.de.frog · 28-04-2020 03:10AM

The other alternative is to implement an actual lock down like in Italy with army and Gardai on the streets for 2 weeks. Everyone confined to their homes and 1 person allowed from each family to obtain supplies every 2 days.

Prison and fines for anyone breaking the quarantine.

Had those type of measures been taken in the beginning we would be opening up already.

If people want a really speedy outcome that is an option.

Avoiding tough choices means prolonging the situation for everyone.

Arghus · 28-04-2020 03:22AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The other alternative is to implement an actual lock down like in Italy with army and Gardai on the streets for 2 weeks. Everyone confined to their homes and 1 person allowed from each family to obtain supplies every 2 days.

Prison and fines for anyone breaking the quarantine.

Had those type of measures been taken in the beginning we would be opening up already.

If people want a really speedy outcome that is an option.

Avoiding tough choices means prolonging the situation for everyone.

Is that even feasible?

I don't think the manpower exists to enforce that kind of lockdown even if they wanted to.

SusieBlue · 28-04-2020 03:29AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The other alternative is to implement an actual lock down like in Italy with army and Gardai on the streets for 2 weeks. Everyone confined to their homes and 1 person allowed from each family to obtain supplies every 2 days.

Prison and fines for anyone breaking the quarantine.

Had those type of measures been taken in the beginning we would be opening up already.

If people want a really speedy outcome that is an option.

Avoiding tough choices means prolonging the situation for everyone.

Why? For what? The whole aim of lockdown was to buy time, Harris, Leo & Tony H are quoted to have said the same many times over.
To buy time to prepare the hospitals and free up beds and implement social distancing protocol in the general public. To prevent a surge so our hospitals wouldn’t collapse like in Italy and Spain.

The lockdown was never supposed to get rid of the virus or bring the number down to zero, and it isn’t a magic solution.
It was to give the health system time to get their house in order.
We have done that, and flattened the curve to boot. We have achieved our goal and done what was asked of us.

So why would more severe measures have been necessary and why would they be needed now?

We are never going to get the number down to 0. The virus is here to stay and no amount of staying locked in our homes is going to change that.

I mean, say we do as you suggest and completely lock down for another month and then what? The virus will still be here.
There is no cure and no vaccine & we will be in exactly the same position then as we are in right now.
There will be a spike in cases when any services resume regardless of when that occurs.
Doesn’t matter if we do it tomorrow or if we do it next January, we will get the same outcome.
Prolonging the lockdown achieves absolutely nothing except putting off the inevitable and further lowering morale and adherence.
It was to buy time and prepare and we have done that.

Regardless, the current issue is with nursing homes and care facilities and that is purely the governments fault and no reflection on the efforts the majority of Irish people have put in.

It will absolutely get to the point where people won’t stand for it and will start to do as they please and that will have FAR more dangerous consequences than a controlled reopening of society with clear rules and guidelines.

Arghus · 28-04-2020 03:32AM

Zx6rdub wrote: »

I'm hgv driver. Have not stopped in 5 weeks, iv slept and lived from my truck Sunday am to Friday pm. My usual shift has stopped, many agencie staff gone, left to me an others in the trade to do our part.

I'd love nothing more then to go fishing with me aul lad, go park an watch me ma with my kids.

I can't. Cause you need grub.
A month ago everyone on this site was all for eire. Now moaning about no pre planned fornight planner.

I'd happily sit on me arse if one of you muppets want to drive the truck?

Eire me ballox. If you can't listen to guidelines to the 5th, with a world pandemic. I may aswel quit an get the 350

Tough gig man. I feel for you.

I work in a shop that has stayed open and I'd gladly take the option to stay indoors and sit this one out.

A friend was talking to me yesterday and he was complaining that he was bored inside. He's still getting paid every week, more than I am, and he doesn't have to leave his house to put himself in harms way. That fella has no idea how lucky he is. And I hear more and more of that crap everyday.

It would drive you mad listening to that. I would fcking love to trade places.

Arghus · 28-04-2020 03:47AM

SusieBlue wrote: »

Why? For what? The whole aim of lockdown was to buy time, Harris, Leo & Tony H are quoted to have said the same many times over.
To buy time to prepare the hospitals and free up beds and implement social distancing protocol in the general public. To prevent a surge so our hospitals wouldn’t collapse like in Italy and Spain.

The lockdown was never supposed to get rid of the virus or bring the number down to zero, and it isn’t a magic solution.
It was to give the health system time to get their house in order.
We have done that, and flattened the curve to boot. We have achieved our goal and done what was asked of us.

So why would more severe measures have been necessary and why would they be needed now?

We are never going to get the number down to 0. The virus is here to stay and no amount of staying locked in our homes is going to change that.

I mean, say we do as you suggest and completely lock down for another month and then what? The virus will still be here.
There is no cure and no vaccine & we will be in exactly the same position then as we are in right now.
There will be a spike in cases when any services resume regardless of when that occurs.
Doesn’t matter if we do it tomorrow or if we do it next January, we will get the same outcome.
Prolonging the lockdown achieves absolutely nothing except putting off the inevitable and further lowering morale and adherence.
It was to buy time and prepare and we have done that.

Regardless, the current issue is with nursing homes and care facilities and that is purely the governments fault and no reflection on the efforts the majority of Irish people have put in.

It will absolutely get to the point where people won’t stand for it and will start to do as they please and that will have FAR more dangerous consequences than a controlled reopening of society with clear rules and guidelines.

The curve was flattened, but the potential is still there for a massive spike again once restrictions are even partially lifted.

We've had over a month of stringent controls on people's movements. Schools closed when there was 70 cases and 1 death. Even after a month of the vast majority of people not mixing and moving about, the daily rate of new cases is in the hundreds, there has been 1100 deaths and there's currently 1000 people in hospital with Covid.

We were coming off a low base in terms of numbers of cases and clamped down pretty hard for an extended period of time, but the numbers still exploded. If we take our foot off the gas now God only knows how catastrophic it could get.

The job isn't done, the virus still has the capacity to run rampant.

Our ICU capacity hasn't been overrun, but it has only been down to a big, big effort. But it would take nothing at all for that to be reversed very quickly.

SusieBlue · 28-04-2020 04:01AM

Arghus wrote: »

The curve was flattened, but the potential is still there for a massive spike again once restrictions are even partially lifted.

We've had over a month of stringent controls on people's movements. Schools closed when there was 70 cases and 1 death. Even after a month of the vast majority of people not mixing and moving about, the daily rate of new cases is in the hundreds, there has been 1100 deaths and there's currently 1000 people in hospital with Covid.

We were coming off a low base in terms of numbers of cases and clamped down pretty hard for an extended period of time, but the numbers still exploded. If we take our foot off the gas now God only knows how catastrophic it could get.

I don’t disagree with you, you actually just proved my point.
We cannot stay holed up in our houses for 12-18months until a vaccine is found.
No matter when we open things back up, that spike is going to happen. Whether it’s now or next year it will happen and there will be the same outcome.

We are never going to get the number to zero and the virus is going nowhere.
Society needs to adapt to this new life if we have any hope of recovering from this at all.
The goal was to prepare the health system & buy time to put strategies in place and we have done that.

Suggesting we continue lockdown for an indefinite amount of time as a magic remedy to a virus we have NO CURE for is absolutely preposterous.

Imagine we stay at home for another 3/6/12 months and get the numbers to zero and then what? We open things up and they spike again.
Meanwhile there will be mass unemployment, business closures, huge financial difficulties, billions of € of debt, mental health issues, homes lost, suicides, zero opportunity for people to better themselves not to mention the deaths of people who could not access ‘non urgent’ surgeries and healthcare because our hospitals are currently paralysed waiting for the surge that isn’t coming because we are all at home.
How on earth could anyone think that’s a preferable alternative?

trapp · 28-04-2020 04:25AM

From speaking to people I know they are in real danger of losing the public on this one.

To build up May 5th as a big day like they did and then simply extend the measures would be a big mistake

Varadkar and Harris have an annoying habit also of speaking to the public as if we're children

The country has been shut down now for almost 7 weeks

Instead of treating the public like children it's time for the politicians to share their plan and our route out of this with the public

No government in the history of this country has ever taken away the freedoms we've lost recently

Regardless of how neccessary the restrictions are or were it's time the government stopped hiding behind Tony holohan and took responsibility for their decisions and showed the way forward

SusieBlue · 28-04-2020 04:28AM

Can I just also say that no life is more important or holds more value than the next, it’s absolutely awful and breaks my heart that covid-19 is killing people and taking their futures away but the flip side of that coin is that the restrictions/lockdown will also cost lives and take people’s futures away too.
Neither is worse than the other and both should give everyone cause for concern.

So far I’m seeing a lot of acknowledgment of the suffering corona is inflicting on people & their families, but more of a ‘suck it up buttercup’ attitude towards those who are finding current restrictions unbearable, and that is completely unfair.

A balance must be struck between the two that fairly serves the best interests of all of us. A free for all isn’t in our best interests but indefinite house arrest isn’t in our best interests either.
Sacrificing one for the other, on both sides of the coin, is not something we should be aspiring to whatsoever and a middle ground needs to be found.

Arghus · 28-04-2020 04:28AM

SusieBlue wrote: »

I don’t disagree with you, you actually just proved my point.
We cannot stay holed up in our houses for 12-18months until a vaccine is found.
No matter when we open things back up, that spike is going to happen. Whether it’s now or next year it will happen and there will be the same outcome.

We are never going to get the number to zero and the virus is going nowhere.
Society needs to adapt to this new life if we have any hope of recovering from this at all.
The goal was to prepare the health system & buy time to put strategies in place and we have done that.

Suggesting we continue lockdown for an indefinite amount of time as a magic remedy to a virus we have NO CURE for is absolutely preposterous.

Imagine we stay at home for another 3/6/12 months and get the numbers to zero and then what? We open things up and they spike again.
Meanwhile there will be mass unemployment, business closures, huge financial difficulties, billions of € of debt, mental health issues, homes lost, suicides, zero opportunity for people to better themselves not to mention the deaths of people who could not access ‘non urgent’ surgeries and healthcare because our hospitals are currently paralysed waiting for the surge that isn’t coming because we are all at home.
How on earth could anyone think that’s a preferable alternative?

I agree that it isn't feasible to expect people to continue to stay inside etc, etc for an indefinite period of time, but as it stands it is still too early to relax restrictions. The numbers are still too high. That is just a basic fundamental fact. May 5th is bullsht.

Of course the lockdown is causing emotional, physical and mental suffering. Of course it's incredibly damaging for the economy. But the inevitable additional avoidable deaths and suffering that will occur will have an even greater impact. If the shackles are off this thing will kill a lot more. And certain death is more damaging than hypothetical depression.

This is bad, this is difficult, but the alternative is much worse.

We can't loosen restrictions until the testing and contact system works as it should and has the capacity to cope. That does not exist at the moment, but it's something that could conceivably exist in the short to medium.

If the case numbers can be reduced to a manageable amount each day - certainly not hundreds each day - and if all the procedures to test and contract trace are set up and robust enough to do their job, then I think, yeah, a phased reduction of restrictions is warranted. If we're lucky that could be achievable by the end of May, but June is more likely. All of this has to be in place.

You won't eradicate the virus, but you can delay it and contain its spread.

The HSE/ government need to grow some balls and spell it out for people.

trapp · 28-04-2020 04:32AM

SusieBlue wrote: »

Can I just also say that no life is more important or holds more value than the next, it’s absolutely awful and breaks my heart that covid-19 is killing people and taking their futures away but the flip side of that coin is that the restrictions/lockdown will also cost lives and take people’s futures away too.
Neither is worse than the other and both should give everyone cause for concern.

So far I’m seeing a lot of acknowledgment of the suffering corona is inflicting on people & their families, but more of a ‘suck it up buttercup’ attitude towards those who are finding current restrictions unbearable, and that is completely unfair.

A balance must be struck between the two that fairly serves the best interests of all of us. A free for all isn’t in our best interests but indefinite house arrest isn’t in our best interests either.
Sacrificing one for the other, on both sides of the coin, is not something we should be aspiring to whatsoever and a middle ground needs to be found.

I agree.

Everybody counts or nobody counts.

Continuing the current measures much longer risks doing even more damage to many.

Perhaps Leo or Simon might stay at home for 9 weeks with no job, no hope for the future and see what they think then.

ceadaoin. · 28-04-2020 05:01AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The other alternative is to implement an actual lock down like in Italy with army and Gardai on the streets for 2 weeks. Everyone confined to their homes and 1 person allowed from each family to obtain supplies every 2 days.

Prison and fines for anyone breaking the quarantine.

Had those type of measures been taken in the beginning we would be opening up already.

If people want a really speedy outcome that is an option.

Avoiding tough choices means prolonging the situation for everyone.

I thought the r0 is well below zero in Ireland at this stage? Didn't they say that community spread is non existent?

So what exactly would be the point of an even stricter lock down? The first one worked just fine. This virus isn't just going to disappear if the military are patrolling the streets

Edit: obviously I meant to say that the r0 is well below 1. Whoops!

Better Than Christ · 28-04-2020 05:18AM

Arghus wrote: »

Is that even feasible?

I don't think the manpower exists to enforce that kind of lockdown even if they wanted to.

Not just the manpower, but the consent of the people wouldn't exist either. I know consent isn't an issue if the state adopts the jackboot tactics advocated by some on here, but any Irish government that inflicted that kind of treatment on the public would be rightly punished in future elections.

It's time to start gently easing the restrictions - extend the 2km limit, start allowing more shops and businesses to reopen with mandatory social distancing measures in place, allow people to go to their local beaches and parks, as long as social distancing guidelines are followed, get rid of the mini checkpoints in towns and villages, but keep the big checkpoints on main roads.

Arghus wrote:

A friend was talking to me yesterday and he was complaining that he was bored inside. He's still getting paid every week, more than I am, and he doesn't have to leave his house to put himself in harms way. That fella has no idea how lucky he is. And I hear more and more of that crap everyday.

It would drive you mad listening to that. I would fcking love to trade places.

I'm still working and putting myself in harm's way, but I consider myself a hell of a lot luckier than those stuck at home. The boredom would kill me - I dread my days off now as it is. There's only so much Netflix I can watch. I'm 100% sure I'd end up finding ways of breaching the restrictions, or at least stretching them to their limits.

Thespoofer · 28-04-2020 05:24AM

deekster wrote: »

Is this fake? If genuine don't see anything about construction going back.

Arghus · 28-04-2020 05:30AM

Better Than Christ wrote: »

I'm still working and putting myself in harm's way, but I consider myself a hell of a lot luckier than those stuck at home. The boredom would kill me - I dread my days off now as it is. There's only so much Netflix I can watch. I'm 100% sure I'd end up finding ways of breaching the restrictions, or at least stretching them to their limits.

To each their own, but, personally, I have no problem being at home when I don't have to work. I understand some people hate being cooped up, but there's endless stuff to watch, read, listen to, games to play, online courses to do. I don't find it difficult to fill the days up. But that's just me.

Poorside · 28-04-2020 06:00AM

Just wondering, who is going to ensure everyone is social distancing on the beaches and in the parks?

Level 42 · 28-04-2020 06:20AM

5km is sh1te won't make any difference to most people

Polar101 · 28-04-2020 06:30AM

Thespoofer wrote: »

Is this fake? If genuine don't see anything about construction going back.

It was mentioned earlier that it was from a survey. If that is true, then it's obviously not a secret leaked document.

---

I would like to hear what the plan is as well - but some people seem to think the government is somehow negotiating with the virus, and doing a bad job of it. They can't just lift everything at once because people are tired. So far we haven't really had a day where there was a really low number of cases.

Not really expecting anything to change on May 5th. If they changed the 2km limit that would be nice, but I'm not sure how much impact that would have.

drunkmonkey · 28-04-2020 06:32AM

I don't believe the Times or Indo after listening to Cillian De Gascun on newsnight last night, I expect them to start advising people to stop using gloves and possibly masks as they both can increase your chances of infection, distancing and hand washing as advised from the start will have to be reinforced.
He did say we should be rewarded, contact tracing and testing need to be improved, testing is 2/3 weeks out.
It's worth catching up on if you didn't see it.

Gael23 · 28-04-2020 06:35AM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I don't believe the Times or Indo after listening to Cillian De Gascun on newsnight last night, I expect them to start advising people to stop using gloves and possibly masks as they both can increase your chances of infection, distancing and hand washing as advised from the start will have to be reinforced.
He did say we should be rewarded, contact tracing and testing need to be improved, testing is 2/3 weeks out.
It's worth catching up on if you didn't see it.

Didn’t see that. What did he say?

GazzaL · 28-04-2020 06:49AM

Arghus wrote: »

I agree that it isn't feasible to expect people to continue to stay inside etc, etc for an indefinite period of time, but as it stands it is still too early to relax restrictions. The numbers are still too high. That is just a basic fundamental fact. May 5th is bullsht.

Of course the lockdown is causing emotional, physical and mental suffering. Of course it's incredibly damaging for the economy. But the inevitable additional avoidable deaths and suffering that will occur will have an even greater impact. If the shackles are off this thing will kill a lot more. And certain death is more damaging than hypothetical depression.

This is bad, this is difficult, but the alternative is much worse.

We can't loosen restrictions until the testing and contact system works as it should and has the capacity to cope. That does not exist at the moment, but it's something that could conceivably exist in the short to medium.

If the case numbers can be reduced to a manageable amount each day - certainly not hundreds each day - and if all the procedures to test and contract trace are set up and robust enough to do their job, then I think, yeah, a phased reduction of restrictions is warranted. If we're lucky that could be achievable by the end of May, but June is more likely. All of this has to be in place.

You won't eradicate the virus, but you can delay it and contain its spread.

The HSE/ government need to grow some balls and spell it out for people.

As long as there is no vaccine, and there may never be a fully effective vaccine developed, the potential for more cases will always be there no matter how long the lockdown is. If the restrictions were extended for a week, 2 weeks, whatever, we would be listening to this same nonsense again in perpetuity. Extending full restrictions and extending the unprecedented new powers to Gardai is the "no balls" option.

There has effectively been zero growth for a month according to Professor Nolan. R0 is down to around 0.5. We are where we need to be. The HSE were supposed to be able to perform 100,000 tests a week by this week. Are they going to tell people that they can't see their families and friends, that they won't have jobs or businesses to go back to, because they failed to hit their targets? That isn't going to fly, as nobody has any confidence in the HSE to hit targets.

Even on social media, which is normally dominated with comments from de Facebuke luvvies, you can see there's actually more comments now from normal people voicing their discontent at the prospect of any extension to these restrictions. People have had enough.

drunkmonkey · 28-04-2020 06:51AM

Gael23 wrote: »

Didn’t see that. What did he say?

Kinda what I just said. Worth a watch. He did say we need a reward for our good job. Contact tracing is a problem and he won't have the testing labs at capacity for 2.5 weeks.
Your playing with fire using gloves and masks in public.

Gael23 · 28-04-2020 06:57AM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Kinda what I just said. Worth a watch. He did say we need a reward for our good job. Contact tracing is a problem and he won't have the testing labs at capacity for 2.5 weeks.
Your playing with fire using gloves and masks in public.

He said similar earlier yesterday but I felt Holohan was contradicting him so not sure what to think

Penfailed · 28-04-2020 07:00AM

The Belly wrote: »

Ok but 4 have closed that means there is one might survive but 4 that went to the wall. Why because the vast majority of that town is unemployed. Its not doomsday its a fact and it has all happended before.

You said that there wouldn't be a pub left. I said that that was wrong. Fin.

prunudo · 28-04-2020 07:07AM

Gael23 wrote: »

He said similar earlier yesterday but I felt Holohan was contradicting him so not sure what to think

I've heard De Gascun on the radio over the last few weeks, I'd sooner take his opinion than that of the condescending head master.

Penfailed · 28-04-2020 07:08AM

combat14 wrote: »

so 80% business rate failure is not doomsday..

It was a made up scenario to prove a point.

Penfailed · 28-04-2020 07:12AM

uli84 wrote: »

Ffs, this is ridiculous, I was obeying but if it continues I won’t anymore, countries much more affected are opening up. High risk myself but sick of it and at the edge of breaking down.

What's ridiculous is someone who is high risk saying they won't continue with the restrictions. Y'know, those restrictions are in place to protect you. FFS.

Idbatterim · 28-04-2020 07:15AM

This is exactly what I feared weeks ago, a bunch of incompetenct morons who run the health service and politicians, destroying the country. There is never a plan here, no urgency ...

They would rather destroy lives in other ways and jobs, businesses than have one extra corona related death on their hands. The same morons who lost a ton of seats in an election, during a boom.

Why was landscaping shut down when many work alone? Building is also too important and massive figures employed directly and indirectly by it , or is building housing etc no longer necessary?

DIY stores, need to reopen asap, get building back, possibly drop this 2km bull****, allow small social gatherings like 4-5 people. We will be waiting months and months for anything good to reopen , possibly longer. Give us something you pr*cks. They are signing their own death political death warrant at this stage.

Relaxation of restrictions Part II

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