Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

branie2 · 27-04-2020 03:34PM

Great for New Zealand

stephenjmcd · 27-04-2020 03:39PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Distribution of laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK, as of 27 April 2020 @ 08:00 hrs. CET

Falling numbers of daily cases in Europe continue, UK contributing the most cases now.

Larger clickable version here :- https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Good to see a clear trend there. Hopefully it continues

owlbethere · 27-04-2020 03:42PM

mandrake04 wrote: »

Sure I understand that, they cancelled the Rugby match but 4000 Italians came anyway and at the time everyone knew what was going happen.

https://www.change.org/p/taoiseach-stop-5000-fans-from-infected-regions-in-italy-flying-in-for-cancelled-rugby-e57585ed-a777-42af-80a3-73d54ec504a2

Ireland could have been in NZ situation, but it won’t be for months.

That's it. If we implemented restrictions and stopped arrivals into the country or at least quarantined them, we would be doing so much more better. The nursing home situation would be better too considering the situation was derived from travel/community cases.

Our government has let us down so much. I remember Michael mairtin was on the radio towards the end of February saying we should close the airports or something on them lines or stop travel here. FG never wanted to do this in case we p1issed off our European neighbours.

All the crap excuses that was sent out here at the time - people will get here anyways if they really wanted to. It should have been harder for them Italians to continue their plans here. Let them fly into London and get a boat onwards to Ireland if they really wanted to get to Dublin. Seriously who in their right mind would bother with such a roundabout.

We would be doing so much more better, if action was taken in February.

Rob A. Bank · 27-04-2020 03:43PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Flatten the curve is what everyone talked about. All the graphics had the same area under the curve just a lower peak over a longer time, which is what we are achieving as of now. Long term everyone will need herd immunity or a vaccine, which might never come, or a new way of living isolated from the wider community and world.

That is not true... the area under the graph is a lot smaller when the curve is flattened. Many preventable excess deaths would result if the health services were overwhelmed.

The UK, Netherlands and Sweden are the only countries i know of, who have tried the totally immoral 'Herd Immunity' lunacy. And they are paying for it with a significant cull of their parents and grandparents.

eagle eye · 27-04-2020 03:48PM

Deleted User wrote:

There is a good chance that we never have a vaccine for this thing. Or best case is a couple of years (to being able to manufacture in sufficient quantities). Do you want to close our borders for that long (which is effectively what a quarantine is)?

Yes but want it until we have a vaccine.

Deleted User wrote:

Spanish Flu took around a year from 1st peak to dying out naturally. COVID will likely be longer because we are flattening the curve and slowing it down. Shutting up shop to visitors until 2022 will be an act of national economic suicide, let alone the impact it will have on families that are split between Ireland and the UK

We are not shutting up shop. I want people in quarantine until it's safe for them to leave.

27-04-2020 03:51PM

hawkelady wrote: »

Are you going to apologise for your outrageous comment earlier where you stated that 100k people flew into Ireland today ... nothing you say will ever hold water until you do the right thing and say you were talking complete s€?te and withdraw the comment

Just in case people missed the sarcasm, I went back and edited my post. The true figures arriving are probably less than 1,000, but I don't have the actual numbers. The vast majority are likely Irish people or permanent residents who have a pressing need to be here. With the occasional essential worker (I hope Keelings managed to find some local employees). I was replying sarcastically to a post which suggested that unlike new Zealand we had yet to isolate from other countries. In fact traffic continues to fly in and out of Aukland airport, with scheduled flights today from Sydney, Shanghai, Vancouver and Nuie. Later in the week flights from Hong Kong, Brisbane, LA and Chile are also scheduled. Arrivals are been quarantined in a hotel, but are we absolving all Irish arrival from the personal responsibility that they have to self isolate? My main beef is with those who will seek to place all responsibility on government ignoring personal responsibility, and also ignoring the facts which are the we introduced controls as stringent or more stringent than most other countries. There is also a major difficulty in people accepting that sometimes things happen and no one is to blame.

New Home · 27-04-2020 03:52PM

What I don't get about people wanting to lift the restrictions at this stage "because we're doing so much better" is this: if we were all at risk of a steep surge of infections and of overwhelming the hospitals when the country had only a handful of positive cases, isn't it way more likely that those who haven't yet caught it yet would be at a higher risk of contagion now that there are tens of thousand (could be more) people infected?

27-04-2020 03:53PM

Gregor Samsa wrote: »

He's edited his post to plead the Donald Trump defense: sarcasm!

How dare you compare me to that orange buffoon. Wash your mouth out with Dettol!

Strumms · 27-04-2020 03:54PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Could this not have been done online?
I've no interest in it but isn't it just a short interview and a song or dance?

You still need scores of production people, hair, makeup, security, etc... not a fûcking chance that’s a good idea.

27-04-2020 03:54PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Yes but want it until we have a vaccine.

We are not shutting up shop. I want people in quarantine until it's safe for them to leave.

I don’t thank that that is going to happen. For a few weeks or small number of months, maybe. But not until such time as we get a vaccine. And especially not across the common travel area. I would absolutely not support such a plan and I think that the government would be insane to do so. There would be no tourism probably until 2022 and all airlines would go under.

More likely is a test based approach. Tests will come before a vaccine. And if you test negative you’ll be able to travel freely

Rob A. Bank · 27-04-2020 03:58PM

Reported cases worldwide show no signs of escape from these iron laws of exponential contagious spread. The steep upwards trend continues as different areas of the world become infected one after the other with this cruel virus.

1st known case 8th December in Wohan, China

0.5 million cases March 26th… which was 108 days later.

1 million cases April 2nd… which was 6 days later.

1.5 million cases April 8th… 6 days later.

2 million cases April 14th… 6 days later.

2.5 million cases April 21st… 7 days later.

3 million cases April 27th… 6 days later.

27-04-2020 04:01PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

That is not true... the area under the graph is a lot smaller when the curve is flattened. Many preventable excess deaths would result if the health services were overwhelmed.

The UK, Netherlands and Sweden are the only countries i know of, who have tried the totally immoral 'Herd Immunity' lunacy. And they are paying for it with a significant cull of their parents and grandparents.

It is true I'm afraid. All the flatten the curve data presented was to spread out the virus, and prevent health services from being overwhelmed, and consequently preventing excess deaths, which we can see in the performance of our acute hospitals. Unfortunately the nursing home system has borne the brunt of this

27-04-2020 04:01PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Reported cases worldwide show no signs of escape from these iron laws of exponential contagious spread. The steep upwards trend continues as different areas of the world become infected one after the other with this cruel virus.

1st known case 8th December in Wohan, China

0.5 million cases March 26th… which was 108 days later.

1 million cases April 2nd… which was 6 days later.

1.5 million cases April 8th… 6 days later.

2 million cases April 14th… 6 days later.

2.5 million cases April 21st… 7 days later.

3 million cases April 27th… 6 days later.

They are interesting numbers. But just one point - what you have shown is linear growth, not exponential

igCorcaigh · 27-04-2020 04:03PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

That is not true... the area under the graph is a lot smaller when the curve is flattened. Many preventable excess deaths would result if the health services were overwhelmed.

The UK, Netherlands and Sweden are the only countries i know of, who have tried the totally immoral 'Herd Immunity' lunacy. And they are paying for it with a significant cull of their parents and grandparents.

AUC would correspond to the attack rate, the total number of the population infected. I don't think elimination was ever our strategy. Maybe it was China's.

So the AUC would eventually work out the same, even with a FTC approach. Just a lower peak.

s1ippy · 27-04-2020 04:03PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

They are interesting numbers. But just one point - what you have shown is linear growth, not exponential

That's true, but there are neither the resources nor the personnel to administer the volume of tests required to confirm that growth is happening at that scale. The very worst of this is yet to come, especially when the scope and reach of this virus is not visible at all at this point and people are dropping their guard at the very most critical time.

New Home · 27-04-2020 04:04PM

Deleted User wrote: »

How dare you compare me to that orange buffoon. Wash your mouth out with Dettol!

Pft. Just goes to show! Soap is enough to kill the virus! :cool: :pac:

ElTel · 27-04-2020 04:07PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

I’m not sure what it is we hope to achieve by widespread testing. If you get a negative result what does it mean:
- It could be a false negative caused by improper processing.
- It could be that you have had Covid-19 but are now recovered.
- It could be you haven’t had it......yet.
- It could be that you have it but there is not enough virus in the upper respiratory tract to show up.
- It could be that the taking of the test was botched.

I’m not sure what we are trying to achieve by this clamour for testing.

Yeah I agree. Testing for the disease itself should be reserved for front line health workers and those at high risk. When restrictions ease bus/train drivers, hairdressers....should be the next group tested.

It's the contact tracing that has to be ramped up for when new cases emerge.
It should be done like a police investigation.

I think most people on these threads want to know if they have antibodies at this stage so I'm taking "testing" to mean an antibody test.

tony1980 · 27-04-2020 04:07PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

INMO Trolley Watch figures for April 27th 2020

39 beds short in Ireland's Hospitals today, Limerick having the main problem.

https://www.inmo.ie/Trolley_Ward_Watch

I know of a patient transferred from UL to a Nursing home due to a bed shortage apparently. Patient died the following day and tested positive for Covid-19 and now there's the possibility it's in that nursing home as a result. I don't know what the procedures should be with situations like that and patients been transferred but it seems crazy considering they are the most at risk group to be transferring patients in without testing first.

SleetAndSnow · 27-04-2020 04:12PM

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1254787742082297859?s=20

Shocking. Just shows how sneaky this virus can be. Thought he was on the mend and two days later is gone. Terrible.

podgeandrodge · 27-04-2020 04:14PM

Deleted User wrote:

Thats is a very good point - if no vaccine, New Zealand need to stay isolated

eagle eye wrote: »

We haven't even done that yet.

Deleted User wrote: »

Yep, still 100,000 passengers a day coming through Dublin Airport

Deleted User wrote: »

Yep, still 100,000 passengers a day coming through Dublin Airport?

(he justifiably included "?" to clarify sarcasm)

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

*sigh* :rolleyes:

zinfandel wrote: »

Why are you scaremongering, they barely do 100k a day in the height of the summer, there are very few flights at the moment with only handfuls of people on most of them.

hawkelady wrote: »

Are you going to apologise for your outrageous comment earlier where you stated that 100k people flew into Ireland today ... nothing you say will ever hold water until you do the right thing and say you were talking complete s€?te and withdraw the comment

Deleted User wrote: »

Just in case people missed the sarcasm, I went back and edited my post........

Seriously, anyone that didn't spot that statement as being sarcasm, regardless of the subsequent insertion of a question mark, needs to re-read it in context of the statement he was responding to. :rolleyes:

Rob A. Bank · 27-04-2020 04:16PM

Deleted User wrote: »

They are interesting numbers. But just one point - what you have shown is linear growth, not exponential

Going from half a million in 108 days to half a million in 6 days is hardly linear.

The steep up slope of the hockey stick infection exponential curve looks linear.

Inquitus · 27-04-2020 04:21PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Reported cases worldwide show no signs of escape from these iron laws of exponential contagious spread. The steep upwards trend continues as different areas of the world become infected one after the other with this cruel virus.

1st known case 8th December in Wohan, China

0.5 million cases March 26th… which was 108 days later.

1 million cases April 2nd… which was 6 days later.

1.5 million cases April 8th… 6 days later.

2 million cases April 14th… 6 days later.

2.5 million cases April 21st… 7 days later.

3 million cases April 27th… 6 days later.

Largely meaningless numbers, they depend on testing, there could be 10m cases in Africa for all we know. There's certainly multiples of 1m in the USA.

ek motor · 27-04-2020 04:23PM

Coronavirus lingers in air of crowded spaces, according to new Chinese study

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-27/coronavirus-lingers-in-air-of-crowded-spaces-new-study-finds?__twitter_impression=true

Rob A. Bank · 27-04-2020 04:23PM

Inquitus wrote: »

Largely meaningless numbers, they depend on testing, there could be 10m cases in Africa for all we know. There's certainly multiples of 1m in the USA.

I know that... and I agree that the 'real' figures are definitely worse, but the reported figures are all we have to go on.

Iamabeliever · 27-04-2020 04:23PM

Inquitus wrote: »

Largely meaningless numbers, they depend on testing, there could be 10m cases in Africa for all we know. There's certainly multiples of 1m in the USA.

That's why he said 'reported'

podgeandrodge · 27-04-2020 04:24PM

ek motor wrote: »

Coronavirus lingers in air of crowded spaces, according to new Chinese study

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-27/coronavirus-lingers-in-air-of-crowded-spaces-new-study-finds?__twitter_impression=true

A lot of scientific studies have shown this. Most importantly though, every study, including this one, points out that it does not seek to establish whether the airborne particles could cause infections.

My personal view, for what it is/isn't worth, is that if these particles were infecting people in reasonably open environments like supermarkets etc. , as opposed to sy a hospital where the same people are there all day, we'd have a lot more infection than we have.

eagle eye · 27-04-2020 04:27PM

Deleted User wrote:

Just in case people missed the sarcasm, I went back and edited my post. The true figures arriving are probably less than 1,000, but I don't have the actual numbers. The vast majority are likely Irish people or permanent residents who have a pressing need to be here. With the occasional essential worker (I hope Keelings managed to find some local employees). I was replying sarcastically to a post which suggested that unlike new Zealand we had yet to isolate from other countries. In fact traffic continues to fly in and out of Aukland airport, with scheduled flights today from Sydney, Shanghai, Vancouver and Nuie. Later in the week flights from Hong Kong, Brisbane, LA and Chile are also scheduled. Arrivals are been quarantined in a hotel, but are we absolving all Irish arrival from the personal responsibility that they have to self isolate? My main beef is with those who will seek to place all responsibility on government ignoring personal responsibility, and also ignoring the facts which are the we introduced controls as stringent or more stringent than most other countries. There is also a major difficulty in people accepting that sometimes things happen and no one is to blame.

Just to clarify, I've spoken many times for many weeks of the need for quarantine because you cannot trust people to do it themselves.
I believe that it should be state monitored and I believe that the person wishing to gain entry to the country should have to pay for it.
I'm aware of multiple cases of people not self-isolating.
I want this virus gone from our country. Social distancing, wearing facemasks and quarantine are how we get this done.

hmmm · 27-04-2020 04:29PM

ek motor wrote: »

Coronavirus lingers in air of crowded spaces, according to new Chinese study

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-27/coronavirus-lingers-in-air-of-crowded-spaces-new-study-finds?__twitter_impression=true

It seems to me that we are getting to understand transmission dynamics much better now - there have been some really interesting studies released recently.

A crowded indoor place with people talking (or singing) is lethal - think Churches, choirs, pubs (unfortunately) etc. Talking in general has been traced to many of the infections I've read about - the only outdoor infection in a 7000 case Chinese study was due to two people talking. Public transport needs excellent ventilation, open the windows or you're at high risk.

While we don't have the climate for it, I suspect you should be investing in some outdoor heaters if you run a business.

Xertz · 27-04-2020 04:29PM

ek motor wrote: »

Coronavirus lingers in air of crowded spaces, according to new Chinese study

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-27/coronavirus-lingers-in-air-of-crowded-spaces-new-study-finds?__twitter_impression=true

I suspect the Tube could be a huge factor in London’s outbreak. It’s one of the most poorly ventilated systems of its type. The carriages of the deeper tube trains are absolutely tiny and the system is largely ventilated by just the movement of the trains in the tight tunnels acting like a piston and driving air through.

In general, more modern metro networks are very actively ventilated.

I wonder if the NY subway may have played a similar role as its ancient. As is the Paris Métro.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMZhQLhcB08

The Dart or even the Luas is no where near this tight.

hmmm · 27-04-2020 04:31PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

My personal view, for what it is/isn't worth, is that if these particles were infecting people in reasonably open environments like supermarkets etc. , as opposed to sy a hospital where the same people are there all day, we'd have a lot more infection than we have.

A good study can indicate patterns e.g. lots of grocery workers becoming infected.

We're not seeing this.

Similarly we're not seeing lots of schoolteachers infected. These results all tell us something, we just need someone smart enough to figure out what that is

I'm very hopeful that we are getting closer to identifying the areas of superspreading. They will have to remain closed, but it will allow other areas to open.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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