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Property Market 2020

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    #4442
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭hometruths


    fliball123 wrote: »
    I was under the impression they might have to wait a month or so if they rent it out for under 6 months and its 28 days. So if I was an Air Bnb head I would rent it out for 5 months and 27 days at a time. There is always ways around the powers that be.

    Yes, but your initial question suggested why not rent for a year.

    I agree that is what I would do as well if i had an airbnb. But it is somewhat risky.

    And if 5000 airbnbs hit the market for 6 month leases, it will drive 12 month rental prices down.

    Basically the point of saying airbnb is the elephant in the room is that unless the airbnb owners/operators leave the properties empty until airbnb recovers, no matter what they do will have a negative knock on effect on sales and rental prices.


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    #4443
    pearcider
    Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭pearcider


    Antares35 wrote: »
    OH and I were planning to be first time buyers say early next year (before all this hit). It is hard to tell where we stand now. We have both kept our jobs and for the foreseeable, they are secure. So we can keep on track with savings etc. As it was, we planned to borrow maybe twice our combined wage, so we were below the generally allowed multiples anyway. I am worried now though if the banks are tightening up lending this could put us in a bad position, which would basically negate any "benefit" we might have seen in a drop in market values.

    If the banks tighten lending, which they obviously will, then this will translate to falls in the property price. The property bulls in here seem to peddle a few mistruths consistently.

    Property price is a not a function of supply and demand. It’s primarily a function of credit availability as the vast majority of investors and homebuyers buy on margin. If credit is cheap it follows property will be expensive. So people with decent deposits should wait to buy when interest rates begin to go up.

    Also property is correlated with unemployment. That’s why Irish property was cheap in 2012 and 1984. It’s why it was cheap in Manhattan in the mid 70s. Etc.

    Also it’s not true to say property is just a place to live and people need a place to live. The bulls love this one.. It’s an investment of capital and requires a positive real yield adjusted for inflation otherwise it falls....If rents fall, property falls too since rents represent the yield on the capital that has acquired or built the property. This is true no matter what. It’s like gravity. What goes up must come down.


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    #4444
    OwlsZat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    PommieBast wrote: »
    Will Dublic CC continue to turn a blind eye, or will planning permission enforcement pull their finger out and do their job?

    Dublin city council planning department will continue to do nothing. Current legislation means a complaint has to be made including the address of the property. They write a letter giving notice of inspection and the property is checked out. Not sure why that's the process but as things stand it's not fit for purpose.


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    #4445
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Some musings from Owen Reilly of Owen Reilly estate agents on the last few weeks;

    Screenshot-20200416-113945.png


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    #4446
    AlmightyCushion
    Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 35,046 Mod ✭✭✭✭AlmightyCushion


    Pivot Eoin wrote: »
    I think some people on this thread might be in for a rude awakening once the market resumes after COVId-19. Just to note, I am also looking to buy at some stage in the next 6-9 Months in South Co.Dublin, so there's no bias here.

    The ignorance of the basic idea of Supply and Demand is laughable. At the end of the day it is the only factor that really truly affects Property Prices. We know supply is low in terms of houses going to market.

    And it seems interest from First Time Buyers is increasing now even more so! Search terms on Google Trends would seem to back that up:

    EVtdHwKXQAAeh21?format=jpg&name=medium

    juq71n7.png

    And if you use the word mortgage instead of mortgages, you will see the amount of times it has been searched has dropped off a cliff the past few weeks and it get more searches than the word 'mortgages'.

    Regardless, none of this proves whether people (first time buyers or otherwise) are more or less interested in taking out a mortgage now than they were a few weeks ago. The search trends don't prove either.


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    #4447
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Some musings from Owen Reilly of Owen Reilly estate agents on the last few weeks;

    Screenshot-20200416-113945.png

    some good points here but how do you develop "affordable rentals" in city centre? I presume there is a shortage of land on which to build? Land in centre of all capital cities is expensive i presume?
    Does he imply council / govt use land to build affordable housing?
    this property lark gives me a headache


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    #4448
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Hubertj wrote: »
    thanks for sharing, never seen this level of detail before.... if AirBnB is so lucrative would owners not try to wait this out so b) or c) be most likely options? Realistically i think it will be heading for summer 2022 before we see tourism hitting 2019 levels again.




    I was going to buy this year. Decided not going to now.
    But I am for the last couple of days trying to rent a nice place for a bargain price. I have a couple of possibles at the moment, but during all my emails and calls I have noticed that most of the new ones on the market are only offer 3 to 5 month rentals. These are no good to me, but the percentage of them is very high of the ones who i have been in contact with.


    I suspect they are all either airbnbs or student accommodation looking to ride out the virus and then get their properties back.
    I dont see students back til October anyway, so those guys probably wanting empty property around september.
    Air bnbs i think they are just going to do 3 or 5 month lets until such a time as tourism picks up again. I think thats a long way off myself.


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    #4449
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭hometruths


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    I was going to buy this year. Decided not going to now.
    But I am for the last couple of days trying to rent a nice place for a bargain price. I have a couple of possibles at the moment, but during all my emails and calls I have noticed that most of the new ones on the market are only offer 3 to 5 month rentals. These are no good to me, but the percentage of them is very high of the ones who i have been in contact with.


    I suspect they are all either airbnbs or student accommodation looking to ride out the virus and then get their properties back.
    I dont see students back til October anyway, so those guys probably wanting empty property around september.
    Air bnbs i think they are just going to do 3 or 5 month lets until such a time as tourism picks up again. I think thats a long way off myself.

    I read your posts on rental price drops thread, thanks for sharing, it is very interesting.

    Your experience would make sense and suggests the airbnbers are will seek 5 month leases, assess the tourism situation in 5 months, rinse and repeat until they are confident that airbnb income is attractive again.

    A sudden spike in 5 month leases will draw attention to the volume of airbnbs in the market that have been flouting the short term letting legislation.

    A new government will have a very interesting decision to make.

    Do they clamp down on the airbnbs in the interests of housing supply during a housing crisis?

    Or do they turn a blind eye because of the risk a clamp down will crash the property sales market?


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    #4450
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    schmittel wrote: »
    I read your posts on rental price drops thread, thanks for sharing, it is very interesting.

    Your experience would make sense and suggests the airbnbers are will seek 5 month leases, assess the tourism situation in 5 months, rinse and repeat until they are confident that airbnb income is attractive again.

    A sudden spike in 5 month leases will draw attention to the volume of airbnbs in the market that have been flouting the short term letting legislation.

    A new government will have a very interesting decision to make.

    Do they clamp down on the airbnbs in the interests of housing supply during a housing crisis?

    Or do they turn a blind eye because of the risk a clamp down will crash the property sales market?


    Yeah i got a bit worn out with all the calls and emails and hardly any answers back. Ive forgotten the legwork you have to put in to get a nice rental.
    But im still going to follow through, just taking a rest for the day.
    I'll go back at it tomorrow and let you know how I get on.


    There is one I really like at the moment but he wants a 3 month deposit. Now I could afford that but dont really want to shell it out at the moment, so ill keep looking and if i draw a blank ill give him a call again.


    I think the amount of Airbnbs is going to drop big time. Either they will stay rented long term, or the owners will just sell up because they dont want to go to normal renting.

    It is strange times. I kinow im changing my mind daily on what I think will happen with rentals and purchases, even with the wider economy. Its very up in the air how the cards will land at the moment.


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    #4451
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,180 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    3-5 month rentals are also teachers working in Dublin who do not stay there for the summer. Most expect not to be back full-time until October. There will be a few week before the projected leaving cert date of late July August. But teacher rentals would be numerous as well.

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #4452
    The Student
    Registered Users Posts: 1,247 ✭✭✭The Student


    pearcider wrote: »
    If the banks tighten lending, which they obviously will, then this will translate to falls in the property price. The property bulls in here seem to peddle a few mistruths consistently.

    Property price is a not a function of supply and demand. It’s primarily a function of credit availability as the vast majority of investors and homebuyers buy on margin. If credit is cheap it follows property will be expensive. So people with decent deposits should wait to buy when interest rates begin to go up.

    Also property is correlated with unemployment. That’s why Irish property was cheap in 2012 and 1984. It’s why it was cheap in Manhattan in the mid 70s. Etc.

    Also it’s not true to say property is just a place to live and people need a place to live. The bulls love this one.. It’s an investment of capital and requires a positive real yield adjusted for inflation otherwise it falls....If rents fall, property falls too since rents represent the yield on the capital that has acquired or built the property. This is true no matter what. It’s like gravity. What goes up must come down.

    Every market is a function of supply and demand. if supply outweighs demand prices reduce. Do you expect developers to continue supply if costs outweigh income?

    If banks reduce lending and developers reduce output where do those looking to buy/rent live while supply stops?

    Credit is a function of confidence and ability to payback. if there is a lack of confidence in the economy (ie a recession then people reduce spending which impacts the multiplier effect).

    All property is an investment of capital whether the property is private owned or owned by the State. The cost of social housing be it build costs, infrastructure costs and ongoing maintenance is not funded by rents paid by social tenants, it is subsidised by general taxation.


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    #4453
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users Posts: 17,840 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Hubertj wrote: »
    some good points here but how do you develop "affordable rentals" in city centre? I presume there is a shortage of land on which to build? Land in centre of all capital cities is expensive i presume?
    Does he imply council / govt use land to build affordable housing?
    this property lark gives me a headache

    Get rid of dual aspect, get rid of parking , reduce size of apartments possibly, that's the build cost. The government cream off huge amount in taxes


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    #4454
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    pearcider wrote: »
    If the banks tighten lending, which they obviously will, then this will translate to falls in the property price. The property bulls in here seem to peddle a few mistruths consistently.

    Property price is a not a function of supply and demand. It’s primarily a function of credit availability as the vast majority of investors and homebuyers buy on margin. If credit is cheap it follows property will be expensive. So people with decent deposits should wait to buy when interest rates begin to go up.

    Also property is correlated with unemployment. That’s why Irish property was cheap in 2012 and 1984. It’s why it was cheap in Manhattan in the mid 70s. Etc.

    Also it’s not true to say property is just a place to live and people need a place to live. The bulls love this one.. It’s an investment of capital and requires a positive real yield adjusted for inflation otherwise it falls....If rents fall, property falls too since rents represent the yield on the capital that has acquired or built the property. This is true no matter what. It’s like gravity. What goes up must come down.

    So are you saying that if we built 20 million more homes over night that property would not go right down as everyone could have one and maybe more than one. Or if for some reason every property bar 10 properties got blown up or knocked down and never to be replaced are you saying prices would not go sky high due to it being a scarce commodity. Ergo price or property price is a product of supply vs demand. I do agree that credit has a lot to do with it but it is just one of the factors for people buying or the demand side.

    I would say its more like a spiral not gravity as house prices go up and down and up and down. But one thing we can take for granted in 100 years time property will be more expensive than it is today due to the mechanics of inflation which has a tenancy to rise over a long period of time and most commodities and goods seem to follow this trend.

    The other factor here is the Irish unlike a lot of other nationalities have an absolute obsession with property, maybe it harks back to being occupied by the English. I remember my dad telling me at 18 get on the property ladder I reckon a lot of people around my age were told the same. You only have to look at the amount of posts on this tread for this topic alone to see proof of this obsession not to mention the dozens of other property related threads.


    Also I would only consider someone to be in the demand side of the equation for buying a house if they had the credit to buy not because they want a property. Sure by that logic in theory there would be a huge demand for millionaire mansions because everyone wants one but in practice the demand is very low for millionaire mansions as people have not got the finances to buy one.

    Also was credit readily available and cheap in 2012 ??


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    #4455
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users Posts: 17,840 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Five months is when then place will go crazy again if colleges and English language schools reopen, could we be a very quick shift back in the other direction ...


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    #4456
    Browney7
    Registered Users Posts: 3,098 ✭✭✭Browney7


    schmittel wrote: »
    I read your posts on rental price drops thread, thanks for sharing, it is very interesting.

    Your experience would make sense and suggests the airbnbers are will seek 5 month leases, assess the tourism situation in 5 months, rinse and repeat until they are confident that airbnb income is attractive again.

    A sudden spike in 5 month leases will draw attention to the volume of airbnbs in the market that have been flouting the short term letting legislation.

    A new government will have a very interesting decision to make.

    Do they clamp down on the airbnbs in the interests of housing supply during a housing crisis?

    Or do they turn a blind eye because of the risk a clamp down will crash the property sales market?

    The five month rental term is purely to get around you getting part IV rights. They can terminate tenancy within 6 months of tenancy starting for any reason but after six months has to be for one of the defined reasons. So five month term plus 30 days notice is the 6 months. Ask them for a six month term and see what they say back if you feel like sussing them out.

    I'd bet any money it's nothing to do with testing out the air BnB market in five months time.


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    #4457
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,180 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Browney7 wrote: »
    The five month rental term is purely to get around you getting part IV rights. They can terminate tenancy within 6 months of tenancy starting for any reason but after six months has to be for one of the defined reasons. So five month term plus 30 days notice is the 6 months. Ask them for a six month term and see what they say back if you feel like sussing them out.

    I'd bet any money it's nothing to do with testing out the air BnB market in five months time.

    Give month term is a mixture, first Students in college subletting until they return, teachers as well. Finally Airbnb's bring available for short term rentals.

    Yes tenancy agreement ruled pay into it but aerbnb owners are not interested in long-term renting.

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #4458
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Browney7 wrote: »
    The five month rental term is purely to get around you getting part IV rights. They can terminate tenancy within 6 months of tenancy starting for any reason but after six months has to be for one of the defined reasons. So five month term plus 30 days notice is the 6 months. Ask them for a six month term and see what they say back if you feel like sussing them out.

    I'd bet any money it's nothing to do with testing out the air BnB market in five months time.

    No doubt there is just a sudden surge of landlords deciding that 5 month leases are a good business model, nothing to do with Airbnb.


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    #4459
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,180 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    schmittel wrote: »
    No doubt there is just a sudden surge of landlords deciding that 5 month leases are a good business model, nothing to do with Airbnb.

    What landlord wants the hassle of changing tenant ever 6 months

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #4460
    ELM327
    Registered Users Posts: 21,380 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    What landlord wants the hassle of changing tenant ever 6 months
    None. But he can evict you for 1 day and sign a new 5 month lease with you.
    Avoiding the hassle for him of part 4


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    #4461
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    What landlord wants the hassle of changing tenant ever 6 months

    A Landlord that does not have to leave a tenant in situ for 90 days plus if they have an unruly tenant. keeping it at 5 months means it 28 days.


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    #4462
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    ELM327 wrote: »
    None. But he can evict you for 1 day and sign a new 5 month lease with you.
    Avoiding the hassle for him of part 4

    Or let him / her stay free for the day as a friend and start the 5 months again. I can see a lot of landlords doing this as its the only to protect against tenants taking the piss


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    #4463
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,507 ✭✭✭Villa05


    mariaalice wrote:
    An interesting thing to do if you are not looking at a new build is to look at the property price register for the areas you are interested in, then look at how quickly the prices rebounded even with high unemployment and emigration some dipped for 2 to 3-year max and rebounded quickly. In other words, some areas are always going to be less of a risk than others.

    The property price register has only been around since 2012/2013. Employment/emigration has only gone in one direction in that time. If you look at the last crash Dublin fell fastest and by the most in percentage terms

    schmittel wrote:
    There are the guts of 9500 Airbnbs in Dublin, and half of them - 4663 - are entire homes/apartments - i.e available for long term rental market -
    Anyone know if there are many recently built to rent properties waiting for the right price before they are rented out. Alot of anecdotes
    fliball123 wrote:
    As will supply there will be a tonne of sellers pulling their property till the market opens and of course we know that the building sites are shut down and the other question is why would builders build when making little or no profit. The supply side is going to be reduced by a lot more than the demand side.

    In the capitalist market that landlords love, price falls to the point where activity resumes. Land and labour are not immune to this
    fliball123 wrote:
    You have to factor in a lot of people stopped buying last year due to brexit and I believe there was a small rise in the first 2 months this year before Corona hit.
    They have an additional issue to worry about now and brexit will be an issue at year end again
    Antares35 wrote:
    As it was, we planned to borrow maybe twice our combined wage, so we were below the generally allowed multiples anyway. I am worried now though if the banks are tightening up lending this could put us in a bad position, which would basically negate any "benefit" we might have seen in a drop in market values.

    You are in the prime position to take advantage of a falling market. Prices will fall until bank lending resumes. When it resumes you will be amongst the first to be given a mortgage

    The Student wrote:
    All property is an investment of capital whether the property is private owned or owned by the State. The cost of social housing be it build costs, infrastructure costs and ongoing maintenance is not funded by rents paid by social tenants, it is subsidised by general taxation.

    Affordable housing will not only pay for itself, it will be profitable, economic boost and significant political capital to the parties that implement it
    Those on the front line of covid will benefit from it and it could burst the bubble of the sinn fein surge

    Interesting times ahead


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    #4464
    handlemaster
    Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    The Student wrote: »
    Somebody better tell the Govt they are wasting money building houses we don't need if there are so many vacant.

    Builth were no bonne wants to live more like it.


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    #4465
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,372 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    handlemaster wrote: »
    Builth were no bonne wants to live more like it.

    I think someone already clarified that the CSO vacant properties stat is nonsense, as it's just a count of the number of properties where no census was returned. One of the Dublin councils did a survey of these and found the vast majority were occupied.

    If that is the case then it's also going to include every derelict and dilapidated building with an address in the country.


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    #4466
    ELM327
    Registered Users Posts: 21,380 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Or let him / her stay free for the day as a friend and start the 5 months again. I can see a lot of landlords doing this as its the only to protect against tenants taking the piss
    Yes that's what I was implying too, these part4 rights for 6 years and inability to evict have gone too far.


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    #4467
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    ELM327 wrote: »
    None. But he can evict you for 1 day and sign a new 5 month lease with you.
    Avoiding the hassle for him of part 4

    That's not a bet I'd like to make against the RTB.


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    #4468
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    schmittel wrote: »
    No doubt there is just a sudden surge of landlords deciding that 5 month leases are a good business model, nothing to do with Airbnb.

    I was finding almost equal amounts of 3 month and 5 month leases. And the thing is it didnt even say it in the daft advert. Its very infuriating. I also asked each of them if I could stay on if they were happy with me after the period as I figured it could be just a chance to suss me out. Each said No way. The time period was not extendable


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    #4469
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    awec wrote: »
    I think someone already clarified that the CSO vacant properties stat is nonsense, as it's just a count of the number of properties where no census was returned. One of the Dublin councils did a survey of these and found the vast majority were occupied.

    If that is the case then it's also going to include every derelict and dilapidated building with an address in the country.

    Is that true that they are classed as empty? Last census my parents parents and my brother went to Australia for almost 2 months. None of us got census forms. So thats 3 houses that could be marked as empty then. I thought they had a register of where people lived and it would be easy to tally that up with people who were just away.


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    #4470
    IndieRoar111
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 52 ✭✭IndieRoar111


    pearcider wrote: »
    If the banks tighten lending, which they obviously will, then this will translate to falls in the property price. The property bulls in here seem to peddle a few mistruths consistently.

    Property price is a not a function of supply and demand. It’s primarily a function of credit availability as the vast majority of investors and homebuyers buy on margin. If credit is cheap it follows property will be expensive. So people with decent deposits should wait to buy when interest rates begin to go up.

    Also property is correlated with unemployment. That’s why Irish property was cheap in 2012 and 1984. It’s why it was cheap in Manhattan in the mid 70s. Etc.

    Also it’s not true to say property is just a place to live and people need a place to live. The bulls love this one.. It’s an investment of capital and requires a positive real yield adjusted for inflation otherwise it falls....If rents fall, property falls too since rents represent the yield on the capital that has acquired or built the property. This is true no matter what. It’s like gravity. What goes up must come down.

    So much this.

    Banks have basically scrapped exemptions and a chunk of those approved by the skin of their teeth won't get the credit when it come time to pull the trigger. Not to mention those in AIP who have been let go due to this.

    Cash buyers and those with hefty deposits will be rewarded for their delayed gratification.


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    #4471
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,372 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    Is that true that they are classed as empty? Last census my parents parents and my brother went to Australia for almost 2 months. None of us got census forms. So thats 3 houses that could be marked as empty then. I thought they had a register of where people lived and it would be easy to tally that up with people who were just away.

    Getting an accurate figure of habitable, vacant property is nearly impossible. Using the census is likely to be the best attempt since it’s effectively a survey of every known address.

    But yes, your houses are potentially counted in the vacant property count.


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