Property Market 2020

Marius34 · 16-04-2020 10:33am

The_Conductor wrote: »

A magic crystal ball would be nice- however, the facts are that prices, in a Dublin context (but not nationally) were falling (gently) before the crisis hit.
Annecdotally- a significant number of non-nationals who were working in the multinational sector- have left these shores and returned home (presumably to be near family and friends- which is entirely understandable). Who knows what percent prices may fall, or indeed, whether they might continue to do so. Rental prices are falling- as supply is increasing but demand has vanished. Perhaps as some units held by small landlords are vacated- they may ultimately be placed on the market- however, that is down the road.

Lets see what comes of the hybrid magic wishlist cobbled together by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael- it looks like a staggeringly inept spending spree without any indication whatsoever on who is going to pay for it (though of course the hardpressed taxpayer will get hit, come what may, in one manner or another).

We have seriously bumpy roads ahead- its impossible to know what is going to happen- all that is now obvious is that it will not be a return to 'business as usual'.

No, it's not a fact that prices were falling in Pre-Covid. It's only based of one single report of information coming from Daft.ie on asking price report. Sinse that report showed what people would like to see on here, it received very high interest, and taken for granted.
Wait for CSO, I would expect it will report an increase in Dublin for Pre-Covid. Which is Jan,Feb,March transactions. January already showed increase, I would expect the same for Feb & March transactions. April transactions I suspect as a start of decrease phase due to Covid, since people has started to pull out or negotiate price.

IndieRoar111 · 16-04-2020 10:36am

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

I think some people on this thread might be in for a rude awakening once the market resumes after COVId-19. Just to note, I am also looking to buy at some stage in the next 6-9 Months in South Co.Dublin, so there's no bias here.

The ignorance of the basic idea of Supply and Demand is laughable. At the end of the day it is the only factor that really truly affects Property Prices. We know supply is low in terms of houses going to market.

And it seems interest from First Time Buyers is increasing now even more so! Search terms on Google Trends would seem to back that up:

This is hilarious. Using Google searches (which can easily be recursive and manipulated) as the main basis in your argument that prices will not drop during what will be the biggest recession since the great depression.

Many furloughed positions will not return. America will be at over 30% unemployed and Ireland could hit the late teens/20%. Remember a lot of the jobs will not return.

The mind boggles.

Thanks for you giving me a laugh on this fine morning

Hubertj · 16-04-2020 10:38am

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

This is hilarious. Using Google searches (which can easily be recursive and manipulated) as the main basis in your argument that prices will not drop during what will be the biggest recession since the great depression.

Many furloughed positions will not return. America will be at over 30% unemployed and Ireland could hit the late teens/20%. Remember a lot of the jobs will not return.

The mind boggles.

Thanks for you giving me a laugh on this fine morning

well they are better facts than your anecdotal tall stories about husbands friends aunts sisters brothers. Andy you think google analytics is funny?

IndieRoar111 · 16-04-2020 10:40am

Hubertj wrote: »

well they are better facts than your husbands friends aunts sisters brothers story, which is just hilarious.

I did not reference anecdotal evidence. I referenced a mix of current unemployment figures and predicted future figures from experts for the US and Irish economies respectively.

Marius34 · 16-04-2020 10:44am

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

I did not reference anecdotal evidence. I referenced a mix of current unemployment figures and predicted future figures from experts for the US and Irish economies respectively.

No you didn't. You created your own interpretation.

Graham · 16-04-2020 10:46am

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

This is hilarious. Using Google searches (which can easily be recursive and manipulated) as the main basis in your argument that prices will not drop during what will be the biggest recession since the great depression.

It's almost as funny as ignoring as yet unknown government/central-bank responses and the effects (if any) of incalculable inflation.

It's all guesswork.

nerrad01 · 16-04-2020 10:46am

Hubertj wrote: »

well they are better facts than your anecdotal tall stories about husbands friends aunts sisters brothers. Andy you think google analytics is funny?

well i think a fact we can be certain of is we are in for a recession, that can be universally agreed, how long and how severe no one knows.

Finance is being changed and pulled in cases by banks even for workers that have not lost jobs. The underwriters will be reassessing all loans prior to final approval due to covid. So the dynamic of access to credit is going to be definitely changed.

Donald Trump · 16-04-2020 10:52am

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

I think some people on this thread might be in for a rude awakening once the market resumes after COVId-19. Just to note, I am also looking to buy at some stage in the next 6-9 Months in South Co.Dublin, so there's no bias here.

The ignorance of the basic idea of Supply and Demand is laughable. At the end of the day it is the only factor that really truly affects Property Prices. We know supply is low in terms of houses going to market.

And it seems interest from First Time Buyers is increasing now even more so! Search terms on Google Trends would seem to back that up:

I've checked those site regularly enough since corona started but only ever looked at them out of curiosity intermittently prior to that. The reason I look is not because I want to buy houses, but because I want to see how the house market is faring for other correlated potential investments which I might or might not make.

I would imagine that there are also some cash rich people who check to see whether there is evidence of a dip so that they can consider whether they want to try to buy in that dip. Not because they need a house, but again they might want to invest their cash and if they think that housing gives them an opportunity for fair risk/reward then they might jump in. But it probably has to drop for them for that to happen.

Not all of the people who searched those sites are living in tents in their parents' garden. Think of it as possibly the vultures circling and waiting to see if the animal will die.

IndieRoar111 · 16-04-2020 10:53am

Graham wrote: »

It's almost as funny as ignoring as yet unknown government/central-bank responses and the effects (if any) of incalculable inflation.

It's all guesswork.

There is no chance of inflation

hometruths · 16-04-2020 10:53am

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

The ignorance of the basic idea of Supply and Demand is laughable. At the end of the day it is the only factor that really truly affects Property Prices. We know supply is low in terms of houses going to market.

What makes you so certain supply will remain the same as it was?

Airbnb is the elephant in the room here.

If the majority of Airbnb operators can survive with empty properties until the tourism numbers come back then I think any property price falls will be negligible. I think thats unlikely though.

There are the guts of 9500 Airbnbs in Dublin, and half of them - 4663 - are entire homes/apartments - i.e available for long term rental market - http://insideairbnb.com/dublin/

That means that right now in Dublin there are approximately 5000 empty properties that the owner is deciding to what to do next:

a) wait out the crisis and hope the airbnb market bounces back, leave property vacant in meantime - probably only those with no mortgage will do this
b) try and get tenant in for 6 months max and then revert to airbnb - probably most attractive option if you can get a tenant you are certain will leave in the 6 months, otherwise risky
c) seek a long term tenant
d) sell the property

Now obviously the owners cannot act on this until lockdown ends but they will have made the decision.

I suspect most of them will be b, c or d.

Which means that whenever lockdown ends you will have the guts of 5000 properties simultaneously hitting the either the sale or rental market.

If that comes to pass until make the post COVID-19 supply and demand landscape will be very different to that of pre COVID-19.

Donald Trump · 16-04-2020 10:58am

schmittel wrote: »

Which means that whenever lockdown ends you will have the guts of 5000 properties simultaneously hitting the either the sale or rental market.

Whatever about the quantities, these properties will also additionally tend to be in prime locations. Which would likely suck demand away from the slightly less desirable locations (further out from city/town etc.)

Cyrus · 16-04-2020 11:00am

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

There is no chance of inflation

there is every chance

Hubertj · 16-04-2020 11:02am

schmittel wrote: »

What makes you so certain supply will remain the same as it was?

Airbnb is the elephant in the room here.

If the majority of Airbnb operators can survive with empty properties until the tourism numbers come back then I think any property price falls will be negligible. I think thats unlikely though.

There are the guts of 9500 Airbnbs in Dublin, and half of them - 4663 - are entire homes/apartments - i.e available for long term rental market - http://insideairbnb.com/dublin/

That means that right now in Dublin there are approximately 5000 empty properties that the owner is deciding to what to do next:

a) wait out the crisis and hope the airbnb market bounces back, leave property vacant in meantime - probably only those with no mortgage will do this
b) try and get tenant in for 6 months max and then revert to airbnb - probably most attractive option if you can get a tenant you are certain will leave in the 6 months, otherwise risky
c) seek a long term tenant
d) sell the property

Now obviously the owners cannot act on this until lockdown ends but they will have made the decision.

I suspect most of them will be b, c or d.

Which means that whenever lockdown ends you will have the guts of 5000 properties simultaneously hitting the either the sale or rental market.

If that comes to pass until make the post COVID-19 supply and demand landscape will be very different to that of pre COVID-19.

thanks for sharing, never seen this level of detail before.... if AirBnB is so lucrative would owners not try to wait this out so b) or c) be most likely options? Realistically i think it will be heading for summer 2022 before we see tourism hitting 2019 levels again.

fliball123 · 16-04-2020 11:02am

willbur wrote: »

Just an observation , it is likely that both the Irish and European / world economies will take a very long time to recover from this C 19 , remember house prices where based on the lack of supply this will have change as a result of AirBb coming either for long term rent or being put up for sale , also anyone who had mortgage approval and hasn't already drawn down will be put in a position where the Banks will review it or the person themselves might refuse to take it out as there future capacity to future earnings have been greatly reduced , as a result I can see a series adjustment in the price of houses downwards

I dont think there was 10s of 1000s of air bnb properties in the country there were some and it will go a small way to combating the chronic under supply once again day on day less properties available on myhome.

Bass Reeves · 16-04-2020 11:08am

mcbert wrote: »

some are expecting 30+% in months...

It's unlikely not impossible but unlikely. However if prices drop will houses sell in any great quantity. I remember in 2003 we had a house price drop. The drop was in the region of 10-20%. But houses were not selling. I had our house up for sale at the time and refused those bids, in mid 2004 I was getting my asking price which was 15% above 2003 offers but my circumstances had changed and I did not sell.

If we have a crash it's unlikely that we will see a huge sell off like in the early noughties

fliball123 · 16-04-2020 11:11am

Reversal wrote: »

Rock solid evidence of huge demand there so...

The latest DAFT report pointed to supply matching demand just fine in Dublin. Leading to asking prices dropping by ~5% in Dublin in the previous 12 months. Thats pre COVID. If there wasn't the demand there pre COVID to hold prices up, there won't be after.

The under supply in housing is grossly misrepresented in Ireland. Need for social and affordable housing is lumped in to the demand figure for 35k units a year.

35K a year is the rate of family formation. Does anyone genuinely think that even half that figure are entering to market to buy every year, absolutely not. Reaching ~20K completions a year stabalised the market and led to falls in most areas in the last year.

Now demand will be lower again. Prices will continue to fall.

As will supply there will be a tonne of sellers pulling their property till the market opens and of course we know that the building sites are shut down and the other question is why would builders build when making little or no profit. The supply side is going to be reduced by a lot more than the demand side.

fliball123 · 16-04-2020 11:12am

Bass Reeves wrote: »

it will be very hard to judge the Irish property market. however we will see a price reduction in the short term. How long and hard it will be will depend on confidence after lockdown. Lots of smaller business's will take 2-3 years to recover. Self employed will be down a minimum of 6-8 weeks earnings this year and maybe more depending on spend after lockdown

The economists expect Ireland's economy to shrink by nearly 10% this year and recover by 7% next year. They expect that next year we will have about 7.5% unemployed after the fall out. However certain sectors will suffer the most mainly tourism, catering and farming. This will definately effect house prices and Construction but for how long.

It is quite possible any new government ( and FF and FG have indicated it) if construction slows they may embark on an ambitious house building programme for social and affordable housing. If that happens house prices may stabilise at the new low but house building costs will still be a factor.

How can they there will be no money for this we are paying out billions to keep the lights on housing will not be looked at as there will be more important issues to be sorted first.

fliball123 · 16-04-2020 11:14am

Browney7 wrote: »

Likely the "interest over time" query took a spike as follows:

"Mortgages" - people enquiring about new mortgages, will i still have to pay my mortgage, mortgage freezes etc.

"House prices" - will Covid 19 result in a fall in house prices, what will happen to house prices, etc etc

No doubt some who have kept jobs will be in a more advantageous position when it blows over but there will be plenty who aren't and getting paid for services rendered is going to be tough for self employed and contractors.

Personally expect a 10 to 15% fall over the next 18 months on the basis that prices were flat lining pre Covid let alone banks having a willingness to throw credit around after this situation dissipates whilst they swallow losses in the wider economy.

You have to factor in a lot of people stopped buying last year due to brexit and I believe there was a small rise in the first 2 months this year before Corona hit.

Donald Trump · 16-04-2020 11:17am

fliball123 wrote: »

As will supply there will be a tonne of sellers pulling their property till the market opens and of course we know that the building sites are shut down and the other question is why would builders build when making little or no profit. The supply side is going to be reduced by a lot more than the demand side.

Ah yes. We all remember how back in 2008 how buiilders stopping building managed to prop the market up

hometruths · 16-04-2020 11:17am

Hubertj wrote: »

thanks for sharing, never seen this level of detail before.... if AirBnB is so lucrative would owners not try to wait this out so b) or c) be most likely options? Realistically i think it will be heading for summer 2022 before we see tourism hitting 2019 levels again.

Airbnb is very lucrative but only if the demand is there, and if you don't think the tourism demand will be back until 2022 then it would follow airbnb will not be so lucrative until then?

I think ideally owners would like to be in a position to wait it out, but in reality they will not be able to. Most will have mortgage or rental payments on the properties they need to service in the meantime.

I guess there will be some that will take the mortgage payment holiday for as long as it lasts and try and wait it out but my gut is most will try and quit while they are ahead.

Another factor here that I have not seen mentioned much is the CGT exemption. If a lot of these properties qualify for this 7 year relief then the owners are much more likely to try and sell up now.

fliball123 · 16-04-2020 11:20am

Donald Trump wrote: »

Ah yes. We all remember how back in 2008 how buiilders stopping building managed to prop the market up

There was a chronic oversupply in 2008 we all remember the ghost estate effect. Even if we hit worst depression out there the country needs more houses to be built. Why would they build when it is not profitable ?? Would you go to work getting up at the crack of dawn spend money on petrol, lunch , etc , work your ass off for no wage?

fliball123 · 16-04-2020 11:21am

schmittel wrote: »

Airbnb is very lucrative but only if the demand is there, and if you don't think the tourism demand will be back until 2022 then it would follow airbnb will not be so lucrative until then?

I think ideally owners would like to be in a position to wait it out, but in reality they will not be able to. Most will have mortgage or rental payments on the properties they need to service in the meantime.

I guess there will be some that will take the mortgage payment holiday for as long as it lasts and try and wait it out but my gut is most will try and quit while they are ahead.

Another factor here that I have not seen mentioned much is the CGT exemption. If a lot of these properties qualify for this 7 year relief then the owners are much more likely to try and sell up now.

I dont see why AirBnB owners wouldnt put their property up for a years rent and then choose which way to go in a years time.

Antares35 · 16-04-2020 11:23am

OH and I were planning to be first time buyers say early next year (before all this hit). It is hard to tell where we stand now. We have both kept our jobs and for the foreseeable, they are secure. So we can keep on track with savings etc. As it was, we planned to borrow maybe twice our combined wage, so we were below the generally allowed multiples anyway. I am worried now though if the banks are tightening up lending this could put us in a bad position, which would basically negate any "benefit" we might have seen in a drop in market values.

hometruths · 16-04-2020 11:24am

fliball123 wrote: »

I dont see why AirBnB owners wouldnt put their property up for a years rent and then choose which way to go in a years time.

Because under current laws once it is been rented for a year the landlord will be unable to take it off rental market and convert back to airbnb if they so wish.

hometruths · 16-04-2020 11:26am

Hubertj wrote: »

thanks for sharing, never seen this level of detail before.... if AirBnB is so lucrative would owners not try to wait this out so b) or c) be most likely options? Realistically i think it will be heading for summer 2022 before we see tourism hitting 2019 levels again.

apologies, think i misunderstood your post - yes b and c might be most likely options but still means a flood of properties onto rental market.

Hence rents will fall.

If rents fall purchase prices will follow.

Bass Reeves · 16-04-2020 11:26am

fliball123 wrote: »

How can they there will be no money for this we are paying out billions to keep the lights on housing will not be looked at as there will be more important issues to be sorted first.

If you look at my post I said that economists expect our economy to recover next year. However if Construction is lagging I could seems government being willing to consider building a certain amount of housing stock. Where will the money come from First there is the NAMA dividend about 4 billion plus. Assuming that public lands are used and factoring in the return in tax to government 30k houses could cost as little as 3 billion net of tax and savings on social welfare not to even consider the benefits across the economy such as chicken roll and latte sales

You could not do this in a boom as with the noughties it fuels the boom and you pay over the top. As well if the economic activity returns this could give the incoming Government a chance to divest itself of its bank share holdings if there prices recover. This would raise 5 billion + if prices recovered. There sale was prevented over the last 4 years by the confidence and supply arrangements. Finally there is the apple tax that should come on stream in the next 3-4 years.

fliball123 · 16-04-2020 11:29am

schmittel wrote: »

Because under current laws once it is been rented for a year the landlord will be unable to take it off rental market and convert back to airbnb if they so wish.

I was under the impression they might have to wait a month or so if they rent it out for under 6 months and its 28 days. So if I was an Air Bnb head I would rent it out for 5 months and 27 days at a time. There is always ways around the powers that be.

fliball123 · 16-04-2020 11:32am

Bass Reeves wrote: »

If you look at my post I said that economists expect our economy to recover next year. However if Construction is lagging I could seems government being willing to consider building a certain amount of housing stock. Where will the money come from First there is the NAMA dividend about 4 billion plus. Assuming that public lands are used and factoring in the return in tax to government 30k houses could cost as little as 3 billion net of tax and savings on social welfare not to even consider the benefits across the economy such as chicken roll and latte sales

You could not do this in a boom as with the noughties it fuels the boom and you pay over the top. As well if the economic activity returns this could give the incoming Government a chance to divest itself of its bank share holdings if there prices recover. This would raise 5 billion + if prices recovered. There sale was prevented over the last 4 years by the confidence and supply arrangements. Finally there is the apple tax that should come on stream in the next 3-4 years.

4 billion we will be borrowing how many billion?? 30+ on top of the 200billion we are in debt. There is no way the gov will be building houses any time soon. By the time this government gets the economy back on track it will be nearly time to leave. There seems to be a lot of ifs , a lot are predicting the next great depression so cant see 4 billion being spent on housing. The Apple tax is not ours yet it cant be banked on.

PommieBast · 16-04-2020 11:34am

schmittel wrote: »

Airbnb is the elephant in the room here.

Will Dublic CC continue to turn a blind eye, or will planning permission enforcement pull their finger out and do their job?

Donald Trump · 16-04-2020 11:37am

fliball123 wrote: »

There was a chronic oversupply in 2008 we all remember the ghost estate effect. Even if we hit worst depression out there the country needs more houses to be built. Why would they build when it is not profitable ?? Would you go to work getting up at the crack of dawn spend money on petrol, lunch , etc , work your ass off for no wage?

Building a unit will likely still be profitable even if the overall project is not. Sunk costs should be disregarded.

Property Market 2020

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