Property Market 2020

Bass Reeves

120 billions in savings may seem a lot of savings. However across 3 million adults it equivalent to 40k/ person. Again that may seem a huge amount of money but a lot of older people who never funded a pension would have saved for there retirement. Most older couples would be have 30k between them and a long of older single people who lived frugally and never had a family could have above the average.

As well this would include money people are putting away for children going to college and you have younger people saving for mortgages etc. 3 million adults would be on the low side for our population size I say we have near that above 25 years of age. As well even children would have savings. Parents teaching them the habit of saving or Grandparents giving them a few euro or gifts at birth, communion and confirmation. An average of 2k/ child would give 2.5 billion.

Putting it all together it a huge sum, splitting it up between people would change the picture.

JimmyVik

Deleted User wrote: »

Every crisis the PS get turned on. The last crisis the nurses took a hammering too from the public and independent news and media.

Its always like a bear pit. Every Irish person is more than willing to hand the pain and suffering to someone else when times get hard. Look around, first thing in a crisis is always what other fuccer is going to pay for this who isnt me. Let me attack them.

Squeezed middle are going to take a hammering and already are. But if this was spread out equally all the way from top to bottom then you wouldnt have all this fighting.

Public vs private sector. Same thing. Lets get the other fuccer to pay so I dont have to is the way it goes in Ireland.

You would think public sector workers do nothing the way some of my private sector friends go on about them when my public sector friends are not around.
I can say though as a private sector worker with plenty of friends both public and private, that the public sector workers I know work far harder than the complaining private sector ones I know.

Idbatterim

JimmyVik wrote: »

Its always like a bear pit. Every Irish person is more than willing to hand the pain and suffering to someone else when times get hard. Look around, first thing in a crisis is always what other fuccer is going to pay for this who isnt me. Let me attack them.

there is a inbalance here between the PS and PS, thats not even up for debate. But you know what? all the public servants work though, they dont get their free houses and christmas bonus etc, medical card, the whole shebang! So when adjustments need to be made, I know where I would be making them! this is going off topic though!

any way, in these dark times, at least those two churchtown properties gave me a good laugh!

Brianmwalker

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I don't think this is true. Pubs and restaurants in Dublin (not including tourist areas) were reasonably full every night of the week prior to this. Galway was similar. The vast majority of the clientele is middle class workers. Coffee Shops never don't have a queue and deliveroo/just eat numbers are off the scale, even despite a backlash on fast food. I'd say well over half of middle class workers have a gym membership.

While I think it's logical for property prices to fall, i'm cautious that it could be a slow process. Any person I know who was looking to buy in the short to medium term, is now WFH and having savings grow. Very easy for a couple earning a combined 100k to save 25k in this 6 month period. While jobs may not be certain into the future, I think there'll be plenty come the end of this year willing to take the chance with a decent deposit saved. Tech type jobs won't seem immediate risky to banks either. But obviously the market must correct itself in time, just might take a bit

A couple with 6k income a month certainly can not VERY EASILY save over 4k a month.

The_Conductor

fliball123 wrote: »

Thats not true the bulk are not HSE employees there is a good % but there are more PS staff in non HSE rolls then there are working there, IE garda, teachers, civil servants etc.

Health Sector 120,450
Education Sector 97,100
Civil Service 32,800
Local Authorities 29,600
Justice Sector 13,340
NCSA 13,200
Defence Sector 10,230

Total 316,720 WTE (at end of January 2020)

Anyhow- I'm wandering miles off the remit of this thread.............

fliball123

The_Conductor wrote: »

Health Sector 120,450
Education Sector 97,100
Civil Service 32,800
Local Authorities 29,600
Justice Sector 13,340
NCSA 13,200
Defence Sector 10,230

Total 316,720 WTE (at end of January 2020)

Anyhow- I'm wandering miles off the remit of this thread.............

So i was right 120k in HSE and a lot more not working in non HSE roles

Browney7

fliball123 wrote: »

Not turning on them just saying the squeezed middle cant take this burden alone everyone even the sacred cows will have to pay as well

Who do you want treating you when you're sick? Who do you want teaching your kids? Who do you want implementing public policy and legislation and collecting tax? Do you want the best accountants and legal professionals working in private sector avoiding tax or working within public sector to collect it? We struggle to keep doctors in this country. Young teachers all off to the middle East to actually get some cash together - hard to keep young teachers in Dublin and surrounding counties.
People who choose these jobs at age 21 choose it for the lifestyle it can afford them - dramatically changing the rules of the game midway through will of course be resisted by the unions. Might make private sector jobs pay a bit less too if a major employer in the country starts to cut pay wholesale?

The deal with joining the public sector is you'll never be rich but you should have enough for a reasonable standard of living. The salary model is an incremental scale - that's the deal on sign up.

Yes they do pay for pensions via PRSI no different to private sector and the rolls Royce pensions alluded to were reformed to career average earnings in the last crash. There is a pension related deduction as well as spouses and children's and other pension deductions.
Added to that, there is no specific employer contribution to a fund to safeguard their benefit so their pensions that they are paying for are nothing more than a promise that the government of the day at the time of your retirement will pay you (which in 30 years will not happen).

If this anti PS nonsense comes back in the Corona fallout I hope it is fired in a rocket to the sun but highly unlikely.

If they can capitalise on any property price declines then more power to them - many have been frozen out the past number of years so if they can better their lot than good for them.

fliball123

Brianmwalker wrote: »

A couple with 6k income a month certainly can not VERY EASILY save over 4k a month.

Is this before the pandemic or after it?

Bass Reeves

Brianmwalker wrote: »

A couple with 6k income a month certainly can not VERY EASILY save over 4k a month.

If you read the post he said as present as.in during the pandemic. And yes they could if still working. With nothing to spend money on and maybe working from where they live it is possible. It hard to spend 50 euro at present

fliball123

Browney7 wrote: »

Who do you want treating you when you're sick? Who do you want teaching your kids? Who do you want implementing public policy and legislation and collecting tax? Do you want the best accountants and legal professionals working in private sector avoiding tax or working within public sector to collect it? We struggle to keep doctors in this country. Young teachers all off to the middle East to actually get some cash together - hard to keep young teachers in Dublin and surrounding counties.
People who choose these jobs at age 21 choose it for the lifestyle it can afford them - dramatically changing the rules of the game midway through will of course be resisted by the unions. Might make private sector jobs pay a bit less too if a major employer in the country starts to cut pay wholesale?

The deal with joining the public sector is you'll never be rich but you should have enough for a reasonable standard of living. The salary model is an incremental scale - that's the deal on sign up.

Yes they do pay for pensions via PRSI no different to private sector and the rolls Royce pensions alluded to were reformed to career average earnings in the last crash. There is a pension related deduction as well as spouses and children's and other pension deductions.
Added to that, there is no specific employer contribution to a fund to safeguard their benefit so their pensions that they are paying for are nothing more than a promise that the government of the day at the time of your retirement will pay you (which in 30 years will not happen).

If this anti PS nonsense comes back in the Corona fallout I hope it is fired in a rocket to the sun but highly unlikely.

If they can capitalise on any property price declines then more power to them - many have been frozen out the past number of years so if they can better their lot than good for them.

I want to be able to pay for my own pension and not pay for 300,000 other people who I dont know. I am simply saying we cant just tax the phuck out of the squeezed middle which was done from 2008 to date. The spend side needs to be looked at. I have no bother paying ps employees who do a good job and I have stated so in the past but there is a lot of waste , clock watchers and of course unions who slow down and disrupt the service from being utilisted to its full potential.

As for your diatribe at the start I do pay a lot of tax to have good teachers, nurses and garda , etc working. What I don't want is to be on the lamb for their pensions I think they should pay that fully themselves. I also don't want to pay people who are simply not doing the work or who have made mistakes that have been very costly.

Ask yourself about the ps/unions scandals over the years and this list is off the top of my head

Xray scandal
Garda commissioner /smear campaign scandal
Garda breathaliser scandal
Garda pulse / penalty point scandal
Cervical check scandal
Banking Crisis scandal - where were the public sector watchdogs?
Siptu slush fund scandal
Hep C blood scandal
Ultra sound / mammogram scandal
Lees Cross Scandal
Kevin Cardiff losing 3 billion and getting a promotion scandal
Bertie Ahearn too many scandals
charlie haughty too many scadals
Sinn Fein paper toner scandal
Politicians not there to vote yet a vote recorded for them scandal
Politician expenses scandals.
That's not mentioning the vast amounts of nepotism that is rampant in the public sector.

Now ask yourself how many people lost their jobs due to the above?? Answer very very few the majority are either still working away or where pensioned off with a nice golden handshake so nothing to see here.

So I don't mind paying for hard working decent people but the list above is a subset of what I and the rest of the country have been paying for. Is it wrong to ask for bang for you buck ?

Hulk Hands

Brianmwalker wrote: »

A couple with 6k income a month certainly can not VERY EASILY save over 4k a month.

Quick calc from a figure of 6k combined income, 1500 combined rent (nationally rather than Dub City Centre) and 600 combined spending. I'm spending about 75 quid a week currently and that's with frequent takeaways and alcohol. Maybe 25k is the upper limit but general point about it being easy build a decent lump stands

Villa05

Idbatterim wrote:

in terms of taxation, nobody does idiotic taxation like this country, basically cream a huge amount of income tax and have an outrageous marginal rate, that stops enterpetise, people taking on extra hours or even results in them leaving the country. My opinion, introduce a proper council tax, every adult in the country pays, no exceptions! Wouldnt go near water charges again, no point unleashing ww3 if they only intend on it raising a pittance, which is what the prevous intention was...

Idbatterim wrote:

Very good ronan lyons article below

Idbatterim wrote:

Ronan Lyons: 'State is foregoing billions in revenue with low property tax' The more new homes are built, the less likely it is that the value of existing homes will soar, writes Ronan Lyons

Very strong argument and I think Ronan implies, without saying it, is that the property owner pays the tax rather than everyone including the renter as implied in your post

The purpose of the property tax was two fold when proposed by the IMF

1 Generate income for the state that remained stable through boom bust cycles and took pressure off labour taxes

2 act as a drag on runaway House price inflation. This would then lead to a reduced negative hit from boom bust cycles

For point 2 to be effective the property buyer needs to pay the tax and pass the cost on to the renter. This ensures that the buyer needs to plan for boom bust cycles where demand for there property may be low and adjust their purchase price accordingly

A renter should not suffer because a business paid too much for their assets

Risk is borne by business not customers of the business

fliball123

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Quick calc from a figure of 6k combined income, 1500 combined rent (nationally rather than Dub City Centre) and 600 combined spending. I'm spending about 75 quid a week currently and that's with frequent takeaways and alcohol. Maybe 25k is the upper limit but general point about it being easy build a decent lump stands

So 6k out of this how much to you spend on the following

Income tax
PRSI
USC
Property tax
ESB/Gas
broadband/mobile phone
Car tax/insurance/fuel/public transport
medical/dental/pharmacy bills
life insurance
home insurance
mortgage/rent
Property fees
Food
Clothing
Toll bridge

The above for me would be all necessary spending and I wouldn't have a lot left out of 6k

Hulk Hands

I suggest you go back and read the posts, you've misunderstood somewhere along the line.

lalababa

Idbatterim wrote: »

there is a inbalance here between the PS and PS, thats not even up for debate. But you know what? all the public servants work though, they dont get their free houses and christmas bonus etc, medical card, the whole shebang! So when adjustments need to be made, I know where I would be making them! this is going off topic though!

any way, in these dark times, at least those two churchtown properties gave me a good laugh!

They could cut the UA a bit I think. Is it 195pw? Cut it to maybe 155, and maybe more as time goes on. They could cut UB a tiny bit maybe to 180.
With the Rent allowance I think you wouldn't be paying over 20 euro a week?? So 155-20=135.
The covid payment of 350 .....is probably needed. E.g. Dublin city rent of 200/250pw leaves only 150/100 to get by on. I don't think you get RA when on a covid payment?? All that said I think we are inevitably headed towards an universal payment. Have a look at all the income supports available on the SW site nowerdays.
R.E. to private v public jobs ....if there were two identical jobs in the paper with identical salaries, one public and one private, there would be a hundred to a thousand times the applications for the public job.

Zamboni

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Quick calc from a figure of 6k combined income, 1500 combined rent (nationally rather than Dub City Centre) and 600 combined spending. I'm spending about 75 quid a week currently and that's with frequent takeaways and alcohol. Maybe 25k is the upper limit but general point about it being easy build a decent lump stands

Wealth consists not in having great possessions, but in having few wants
Epictetus

Dwarf.Shortage

fliball123 wrote: »

So 6k out of this how much to you spend on the following

Income tax
PRSI
USC
Property tax
ESB/Gas
broadband/mobile phone
Car tax/insurance/fuel/public transport
medical/dental/pharmacy bills
life insurance
home insurance
mortgage/rent
Property fees
Food
Clothing
Toll bridge

The above for me would be all necessary spending and I wouldn't have a lot left out of 6k

The 6k p/m for someone earning 100k is net of the bolded categories

Bass Reeves

fliball123 wrote: »

So 6k out of this how much to you spend on the following

Income tax
PRSI
USC
Property tax
ESB/Gas
broadband/mobile phone
Car tax/insurance/fuel/public transport
medical/dental/pharmacy bills
life insurance
home insurance
mortgage/rent
Property fees
Food
Clothing
Toll bridge

The above for me would be all necessary spending and I wouldn't have a lot left out of 6k

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

The 6k p/m for someone earning 100k is net of the bolded categories

As well young couple's saving for a house would have none of the rest highlighted either. As well medical bills would be miniscule in most cases and on earning 0f 100k/couple if in private sector it's likely they have health insurance any paid by employer. At present during the pandeminic they could be working from home. Spending is very limited at present

kevinc565

why do they build such ugly houses?

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/brookside-blackrock-stillorgan-grove-blackrock-county-dublin/4413170

then they blight the area for 100 years until they are knocked.

kevinc565

tastyt wrote: »

This is because we have the usual nonsense from guards and nurses about earning 45k after 15 years or some other lies.

They have a tough job but people are sick of them giving their wages without all their allowances which are all guaranteed and plenty of scope for overtime. Their basic salary probably accounts for 2/3 of the salary for public servants on 24 shift.

Why can’t they just be honest about their take home pay and have an open conversation about it? Because it’s a lot more than they claim it is that’s why.

Good opportunity for them to buy in the next few months though and I would never begrudge them a good standard of living , tough jobs, but well paid .

Agreed, teachers start on 40k yet their union reps go on TV stating that they start below 30k and you can't afford a house with that etc. Fact is teachers have the best graduate salaries in Ireland

Hubertj

kevinc565 wrote: »

why do they build such ugly houses?

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/brookside-blackrock-stillorgan-grove-blackrock-county-dublin/4413170

then they blight the area for 100 years until they are knocked.

unbelievable..... ugliest house i have seen in a long time...... basically no garden in a house they want €625k + for. Lovely area and a good house would be worth that price range but that thing...

kevinc565

Hubertj wrote: »

unbelievable..... ugliest house i have seen in a long time...... basically no garden in a house they want €625k + for. Lovely area and a good house would be worth that price range but that thing...

when it's ugly they show the sitting room as the front page on myhome -> they know it's ugly. It's very unfortunate for such a nice area. anyone that can afford these won't like the look at the house.

All the 3 story houses these days are crap. You cant occupy the master bedroom on the top floor and leave young kids on the first floor. Ridiculous. So more waste of space housing that nobody wants.

What idiot UCD architects are designing these?

Dylan94

kevinc565 wrote: »

Agreed, teachers start on 40k yet their union reps go on TV stating that they start below 30k and you can't afford a house with that etc. Fact is teachers have the best graduate salaries in Ireland

Post primary teachers start on just under €37,000 and are not entitled to any allowances that older teachers and those in other public sector jobs such as teachers and guards are entitled to. And that's only once you get a full time job which usually takes years after you graduate with a BA and a Masters degree. So 6 years in University.

The argument that unions are making now is that they there should just be one pay scale and not based on weather you started before or after 2012. They are not looking for a pay rise for everyone, just the lower paid teachers.

https://www.asti.ie/pay-and-conditions/#P2

fliball123

Dylan94 wrote: »

Post primary teachers start on just under €37,000 and are not entitled to any allowances that older teachers and those in other public sector jobs such as teachers and guards are entitled to. And that's only once you get a full time job which usually takes years after you graduate with a BA and a Masters degree. So 6 years in University.

The argument that unions are making now is that they there should just be one pay scale and not based on weather you started before or after 2012. They are not looking for a pay rise for everyone, just the lower paid teachers.

https://www.asti.ie/pay-and-conditions/#P2

Well thats what happened when the unions abandoned new entrants, instead of bring new up we should be bringing the older staff back

kevinc565

The_Conductor wrote: »

550k?
Fecking hell.
Its a reasonable 1970s council house- but with a bad aspect (the back garden is easterly facing ffs).
Property features: Electric Fire in Living Room........
Like what?

If you actually click through- it does look nice- but 550k? Its not even 100m2- and the family selling have obviously outgrown it- how long before someone else would outgrow it?

Utterly ridiculous price.

the ex-council in Patrician Villas Stillorgan were also looking for 450k. So basically for the worst houses in Dublin you pay 450k.

Anything better than worst will cost you more.

kevinc565

Dylan94 wrote: »

Post primary teachers start on just under €37,000 and are not entitled to any allowances that older teachers and those in other public sector jobs such as teachers and guards are entitled to. And that's only once you get a full time job which usually takes years after you graduate with a BA and a Masters degree. So 6 years in University.

The argument that unions are making now is that they there should just be one pay scale and not based on weather you started before or after 2012. They are not looking for a pay rise for everyone, just the lower paid teachers.

https://www.asti.ie/pay-and-conditions/#P2

New entrants start on point 4 of the scale. So they start on €41k

Dylan94

kevinc565 wrote: »

New entrants start on point 4 of the scale. So they start on €41k

Not true. They used to start on point 3, in recognition of the years of unpaid work that must be done to get qualified. But that stopped in 2012.

JamesMason

The_Conductor wrote: »

550k?
Fecking hell.
Its a reasonable 1970s council house- but with a bad aspect (the back garden is easterly facing ffs).
Property features: Electric Fire in Living Room........
Like what?

If you actually click through- it does look nice- but 550k? Its not even 100m2- and the family selling have obviously outgrown it- how long before someone else would outgrow it?

Utterly ridiculous price.

This has to be a joke. They cannot be serious.

PommieBast

kevinc565 wrote: »

why do they build such ugly houses?

Some of those photos looked like they were actually 3D renderings.


Flat roof is a no-no. They are cheap to build but are often maintenance headaches.

Cyrus

Hubertj wrote: »

unbelievable..... ugliest house i have seen in a long time...... basically no garden in a house they want €625k + for. Lovely area and a good house would be worth that price range but that thing...

you'll find the 625k was for apartments the houses will all be 900plus and yes they are ugly