Property Market 2020

Cyrus

JP100 wrote: »

"All public sector employers will have to have 20% of staff working remotely or from home by 2021. Incentives will be provided to private sector employers to do likewise under the FF/FG policy plan" @rtenews

— Mícheál Lehane (@MichealLehane) April 15, 2020

While no doubt some dinosaur bosses and management will no doubt still try to find ways to rail against the concept of working from home, I think the shift towards wfh is now inexorable. I think that a lot of 3rd level colleges will also go down the route of remote learning where at all feasible sooner rather than later. Take the example of Hibernia College, their courses are predominantly ran online with quite regular workshops then scheduled to make up for any deficit in the need for person to person interaction. It's a very low cost business model set up perfectly to maximise their profits. A no brainer really from a business point of view.

The genie is out of the bottle now in terms of remote working, teaching and learning and what would have been commonplace in Ireland in 20 or 30 years time anyways will now become commonplace in Ireland within the next 5 to 10 years. The effect that such changes will have on the property market will be quite telling.

its far more likely that self driving cars will have the change on the property market you expect to see than any mass movement to work from home.

humans are a social species, working from home suits a minority only.

JP100

Cyrus wrote: »

its far more likely that self driving cars will have the change on the property market you expect to see than any mass movement to work from home.

humans are a social species, working from home suits a minority only.

That's real head in the sand stuff. It's not an either or approach, you can work from home and still have the human interaction. Lots of companies do it already whereby staff work outside of the office 1 or 2 days per week. Expect to see more and more companies incorporate the latter and more and more employees expecting it and demanding it.

Business fine margins also won't care about human interaction. This pandemic is proving for a significant number of businesses that wfh is feasible while maintaining productivity. Money talks, bulksh1t walks, that's what ultimately dictates businesses' fine margins.

Dylan94

Prices continued to rise in the year to February with Dublin prices staying largely the same. Tgis would be the last pre covid report if I'm not wrong.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/property-prices-up-1-but-marginal-decline-in-dublin-1.4231446

Cyrus

JP100 wrote: »

That's real head in the sand stuff. It's not an either or approach, you can work from home and still have the human interaction. Lots of companies do it already whereby staff work outside of the office 1 or 2 days per week. Expect to see more and more companies incorporate the latter and more and more employees expecting it and demanding it.

Business fine margins also won't care about human interaction. This pandemic is proving for a significant number of businesses that wfh is feasible while maintaining productivity. Money talks, bulksh1t walks, that's what ultimately dictates business fine margins.

i'm really not sure what point you are making. WFH 1 or 2 days a week won't really change where people want to live and doesnt reinforce your argument. I have no issue with people WFH 1 or 2 days a week. Full time 5 days a week isn't workable for the majority though, nor is it healthy for them either.

Maintaining productivity over a 4-8 week period is one thing, you would want to see that over a 12 month period.

8-10

Cyrus wrote: »

its far more likely that self driving cars will have the change on the property market you expect to see than any mass movement to work from home.

humans are a social species, working from home suits a minority only.

20% is a minority though

You can drastically increase the number of people who work from home is the point. Still might be a minority of people.

There's also likely to be staggering of workforce rather than 100% of your time in the office or WFH. My place is proposing no more than 50% of the workers on site at any one time leaving a lot of flexibility for managing WFH. We'll likely still have a very small amount in the office 100%, a very small amount WFH 100%, with everyone else being a mixture based on needs.

I've been looking to buy myself in North Wicklow but with this move think I might only have to go to the office twice a week at most I'm starting to look further south in Wicklow and even North Wexford as it would be easily manageable but getting much more for my money

Won't apply to everyone but I reckon we'll see a sizeable enough shift in behaviour with work patterns

JP100

Cyrus wrote: »

i'm really not sure what point you are making. WFH 1 or 2 days a week won't really change where people want to live and doesnt reinforce your argument. I have no issue with people WFH 1 or 2 days a week. Full time 5 days a week isn't workable for the majority though, nor is it healthy for them either.

Maintaining productivity over a 4-8 week period is one thing, you would want to see that over a 12 month period.

It exactly incorporates my point, if a significant number of staff are WFH, it straight away negates the need for larger office spaces than otherwise would be needed. As I also said before businesses' fine margins won't care much for the human interaction side of things. That is the simple reality.

The move towards remote working, teaching and learning is inexorable. To our grandchildren someday, the idea that we drove 3 hour commutes to and back from work every day, that we travelled abroad regularly for conferences in the UK and elsewhere that could just have easily and productively been done online, etc. Such a world will seem so alien to them.

Browney7

Dylan94 wrote: »

Prices continued to rise in the year to February with Dublin prices staying largely the same. Tgis would be the last pre covid report if I'm not wrong.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/property-prices-up-1-but-marginal-decline-in-dublin-1.4231446

Or the index has fallen to 107.5 from its high point of 108.8 in September. They've debased the index to be 100 at 2015 as opposed to 2005 in this release.

The index level in Feb 2018 was 102
The index level in Feb 2019 was 106.4

Growth over the past two years has not been huge by any stretch of the imagination.

Dublin is flat compared to Feb 19.

It is a pre Covid report with sales entered into PPR and revenue stamp duty filings by end Feb. So realistically it's mostly sales negotiated and struck between November and February.

JP100

8-10 wrote: »

20% is a minority though

You can drastically increase the number of people who work from home is the point. Still might be a minority of people.

There's also likely to be staggering of workforce rather than 100% of your time in the office or WFH. My place is proposing no more than 50% of the workers on site at any one time leaving a lot of flexibility for managing WFH. We'll likely still have a very small amount in the office 100%, a very small amount WFH 100%, with everyone else being a mixture based on needs.

I've been looking to buy myself in North Wicklow but with this move think I might only have to go to the office twice a week at most I'm starting to look further south in Wicklow and even North Wexford as it would be easily manageable but getting much more for my money

Won't apply to everyone but I reckon we'll see a sizeable enough shift in behaviour with work patterns

That's exactly the point. The net effect longer term of businesses' staggering when employees are onsite will obviously effect the number and size of office spaces required in the future. As you also said, it will be a mix and match approach. Some 100% WFH, some 100% in office and some in between but the key thing is work patterns will inevitably change.WFH thus having a number of knock on consequenc both directly and indirectly.

PommieBast

JP100 wrote: »

It exactly incorporates my point, if a significant number of staff are WFH, it straight away negates the need for larger office spaces than otherwise would be needed.

That assumes they are combining WFH with hot-desking and an explicit policy of not having enough desks for everyone to come in. I would not want to work for such a company.

Cyrus

JP100 wrote: »

It exactly incorporates my point, if a significant number of staff are WFH, it straight away negates the need for larger office spaces than otherwise would be needed. As I also said before businesses' fine margins won't care much for the human interaction side of things. That is the simple reality.

The move towards remote working, teaching and learning is inexorable. To our grandchildren someday, the idea that we drove 3 hour commutes to and back from work every day, that we travelled abroad regularly for conferences in the UK and elsewhere that could just have easily and productively been done online, etc. Such a world will seem so alien to them.

to our grandchildren the fact we drove ourselves anywhere will seem alien, because they wont drive their own cars, im not convinced my own kids will.

but i still don't see a mass move to people working from home, i could be wrong. Even if you are correct People will still desire to live in an urban setting for access to amenties, so all of those will need to spread also.

PommieBast

PommieBast wrote: »

That assumes they are combining WFH with hot-desking and an explicit policy of not having enough desks for everyone to come in. I would not want to work for such a company.

You can have docking stations for laptops, keyboards that can be wiped down and desks cleaned at the start and end of the day.

For everyone not wanting to work for such a company you'll have plenty that will appreciate the flexibility.

JP100

PommieBast wrote: »

That assumes they are combining WFH with hot-desking and an explicit policy of not having enough desks for everyone to come in. I would not want to work for such a company.

That will be ultimately for each company to decide and if enough companies go down that route and follow such a model, you may have no choice.

JP100

Augeo wrote: »

You can have docking stations for laptops, keyboards that can be wiped down and desks cleaned at the start and end of the day.

For everyone not wanting to work for such a company you'll have plenty that will appreciate the flexibility.

I think a lot would indeed appreciate the flexibility and I can see alot of this in the future been laid out in the job interview process itself and at the very start of people's careers, so won't really be an issue in the longer term. Company policy on WFH and onsite operations etc been laid out or known before the actual job interview process.

skooterblue2

stinger31 wrote: »

Is this the start of it all falling apart?

Shussssh ! will you the plebs think this is just a speed bump and we will all be back to happy happy trading after the 2nd of May.

JP100

Cyrus wrote: »

to our grandchildren the fact we drove ourselves anywhere will seem alien, because they wont drive their own cars, im not convinced my own kids will.

but i still don't see a mass move to people working from home, i could be wrong. Even if you are correct People will still desire to live in an urban setting for access to amenties, so all of those will need to spread also.

People will always desire urban settings for a myriad of reasons but this pandemic has very much fast forwarded the process of WFH and the change in patterns of work.

PommieBast

JP100 wrote: »

That will be ultimately for each company to decide and if enough companies go down that route and follow such a model, you may have no choice.

Given the nature of my work (custom-built hardware) having to hot-desk would equate to at least half a day's worth of lost productivity a week just to setup & pack stuff away.


Then again I have no personal objection to being paid to waste time

JP100

PommieBast wrote: »

Given the nature of my work (custom-built hardware) having to hot-desk would equate to at least half a day's worth of lost productivity a week just to setup & pack stuff away.


Then again I have no personal objection to being paid to waste time

ðŸ‘

JimmyVik

PommieBast wrote: »

Given the nature of my work (custom-built hardware) having to hot-desk would equate to at least half a day's worth of lost productivity a week just to setup & pack stuff away.


Then again I have no personal objection to being paid to waste time

Most people who can work from home thinks everyone can work from home


Its just human bias. Everyone thinks the same rules apply to whole populations as themselves.


Wonder what percentage of the working population can actually work from home long term.

A post I read earlier where they were saying there will be a government subsidy, maybe a tax break on the salary of a person that works from home over 50% of the time. Now that would get companies thinking.

JP100

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2020/0417/1132149-rent-sale-property-ireland/

It will be interesting to see any new governments stance on the Airbnb sector.

JP100

JimmyVik wrote: »

Most people who can work from home thinks everyone can work from home


Its just human bias. Everyone thinks the same rules apply to whole populations as themselves.


Wonder what percentage of the working population can actually work from home long term.

A post I read earlier where they were saying there will be a government subsidy, maybe a tax break on the salary of a person that works from home over 50% of the time. Now that would get companies thinking.

A better question to ask is what professions can realistically work from home on a long term basis and the answer is quite a lot of them.

JimmyVik

JP100 wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2020/0417/1132149-rent-sale-property-ireland/

It will be interesting to see any new governments stance on the Airbnb sector.

Sure there is nobody to rent. But there are people leaving. Why wouldnt rentals build up.



Im the only person in the whole country that I know of who is actively trying to move at the moment. And its not as easy as I thought it would be. Try contacting and getting info out of a few of those vacancies.

JimmyVik

JP100 wrote: »

A better question to ask is what professions can realistically work from home on a long term basis and the answer is quite a lot of them.

So how many people have you got?

Idbatterim

JP100 wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2020/0417/1132149-rent-sale-property-ireland/

It will be interesting to see any new governments stance on the Airbnb sector.

given that its the government, entirely responsible for the crisis and blocking development and appalling planning, you actually buy the Airbnb scapegoat bull**** they try to feed you?

JP100

JimmyVik wrote: »

Sure there is nobody to rent. But there are people leaving. Why wouldnt rentals build up.



Im the only person in the whole country that I know of who is actively trying to move at the moment. And its not as easy as I thought it would be. Try contacting and getting info out of a few of those vacancies.

Did you even bother to properly read the article?! The volume of rentals are up in the capital because of a glut of new properties coming on to the market a la Airbnb.

nerrad01

Reps4jesus wrote: »

Got my mortgage approval yesterday with an exemption and no fuss at all. im in a relatively covid-proof job and have a big enough deposit saved but would have expected a bit more stress regarding the exemption in the current climate

which bank was this with out of interest?

JP100

Idbatterim wrote: »

given that its the government, entirely responsible for the crisis and blocking development and appalling planning, you actually buy the Airbnb scapegoat bull**** they try to feed you?

An extremely defensive post and the quoted article seems to have touched a nerve with you. I'm also neither a buyer or seller, ta very much.

Hubertj

JP100 wrote: »

Did you even bother to properly read the article?! Rentals are up in the capital because of a glut of new properties coming on to the market a la Airbnb.

it would be interesting to read if they broke it down to show how many are only offering shorter term leases.

Mic 1972

Has anyone contacted any Estate Agencies to inquire about properties on sale at the moment?
I contacted a few and nobody got back to me in more than a week

The_Conductor

JP100 wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2020/0417/1132149-rent-sale-property-ireland/

It will be interesting to see any new governments stance on the Airbnb sector.

The other thing that wasn't really explored in all of this- is the explosion in available rentals in certain areas- precisely mirrors the complete shutdown in the sale market in the same areas.

The narrative also mentions that the units for rent would not appeal to young workers who had returned home or students- and then follows up with a picture showing a number of apartments in Dublin 6.........

It would seem to me that they are shoehorning a narrative to meet an agenda.

Idbatterim

JP100 wrote: »

A very defensive post altogether. I'm neither a buyer or seller, ta very much.

yeah it probably is, the government have caused this crisis for some people or bonanza for others. Dont be blaming airbnb for it, they are a company trying to make money, like your employer I am sure...

DCC are fighting relentlessly about johnny ronan wanting a few floors on top of squat building in the docklands, look at the state of the area. so before flocking to point the finger of blame at airbnb , like RTE and those in power want you to do, maybe take a look at the real culprits!