Property Market 2020

JP100

JimmyVik wrote: »

So how many people have you got?

I'll tell you what. You tell me all the one's who can't and I'll tell you the ones you haven't listed are the ones who can. That's a fair deal for ya.

Looking forward to hearing from you as per your convenience.

JimmyVik

JP100 wrote: »

Did you even bother to properly read the article?! The volume of rentals are up in the capital because of a glut of new properties coming on to the market a la Airbnb.

Is it Airbnb or is it people who have left and gone home to their own countries. Is it students who have gone home and moved out. Is it people who were all set to move in and then pulled out at the last minute.


Or do we just assume the cause is what we want it to be?


Im on the fence. I dont know what the cause is. But im not surprised at all.
Im still having a problem making a deal though.

JimmyVik

JP100 wrote: »

I'll tell you what. You tell me all the one's who can't and I'll tell you the ones you haven't listed are the ones who can. That's a fair deal for ya.

Looking forward to hearing from you as per your convenience.

You are totally defensive in this thread. Thats ok though. Everyone else seems sensible enough to know that not all of the people you think can work from home can. And not just for work type reasons too i might add. But carry on.

JP100

Idbatterim wrote: »

yeah it probably is, the government have caused this crisis for some people or bonanza for others. Dont be blaming airbnb for it, they are a company trying to make money, like your employer I am sure...

DCC are fighting relentlessly about johnny ronan wanting a few floors on top of squat building in the docklands, look at the state of the area. so before flocking to point the finger of blame at airbnb , like RTE and those in power want you to do, maybe take a look at the real culprits!

Again very defensive of you. Simply posted an article that confirms what most already suspected in relation to the volume of new properties coming on to the rental market. Then threw out the question whether a new government would take any particular stance on Airbnb in light of recent developments. A fair question to pose in a property discussion forum. A question and topic that will in any case be discussed indepthly on here and irrespective of what you or I think on the matter.

JP100

JimmyVik wrote: »

You are totally defensive in this thread. Thats ok though. Everyone else seems sensible enough to know that not all of the people you think can work from home can. And not just for work type reasons too i might add. But carry on.

I take it then that you sent the list in the post. Ta very much.

Now, back on topic please, it's a property discussion thread and nobody wants to read your obsessions about me.

JimmyVik

JP100 wrote: »

Again very defensive of you. Simply posted an article that confirms what most already suspected in relation to the volume of new properties coming on to the rental market. Then threw out the question whether a new government would take any particular stance on Airbnb in light of recent developments. A fair question to pose in a property discussion forum. A question and topic that will in any case be discussed indepthly on here and irrespective of what you or I think on the matter.

I think you were asked why you think it was just AirBnb, by a few people, no?
Also a fair question to you.

Anyway sorry for getting into it with you.
My answer is I dont know and im quite sure im not the only one. But I do not think AirBnb is the sole cause of extra properties vacant on Daft.


I think it most likely that there are no customers for them at this time.

JP100

JimmyVik wrote: »

Is it Airbnb or is it people who have left and gone home to their own countries. Is it students who have gone home and moved out. Is it people who were all set to move in and then pulled out at the last minute.


Or do we just assume the cause is what we want it to be?


Im on the fence. I dont know what the cause is. But im not surprised at all.
Im still having a problem making a deal though.

JimmyVik wrote: »

I think you were asked why you think it was just AirBnb, by a few people, no?
Also a fair question to you.

Anyway sorry for getting into it with you.
My answer is I dont know and im quite sure im not the only one. But I do not think AirBnb is the sole cause of extra properties vacant on Daft.


I think it most likely that there are no customers for them at this time.

The fact that you are still asking some of these questions above shows you either didn't or cannot properly read or the article.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Is there anyway to verify that an underbidder exists and the EA isn't lying?

JimmyVik

JP100 wrote: »

The fact that you are still asking some of these questions above shows you either didn't or cannot properly read or the article.

Can you please calm down there.
Enough. I give up. Its like an assault from you. Are you like this in real life?
Chill out. Argument over. We dont have to carry it on.

JimmyVik

Adelyn Late Sportsmanship wrote: »

Is there anyway to verify that an underbidder exists and the EA isn't lying?

You could always lower your bid to what the under bidder is supposedly bidding and see if they stick with you.


Always pay what you are willing to pay and if it goes over then just leave the process. Then it wont matter if there is an underbidder or not. If there isnt then they will go with you.

PommieBast

JimmyVik wrote: »

Wonder what percentage of the working population can actually work from home long term.

A significant portion of most office-based jobs could be WFH although 100% WFH is another matter.


Trouble is for WFH to work for anything other than the very short-term someone really has to have some sort of home-office setup (absolute minimum of dedicated desk), and I am pretty certain such people are a clear minority. 100% WFH on the dining table trashes both productivity and work-life balance..

Dwarf.Shortage

JimmyVik wrote: »

You could always lower your bid to what the under bidder is supposedly bidding and see if they stick with you.


Always pay what you are willing to pay and if it goes over then just leave the process. Then it wont matter if there is an underbidder or not. If there isnt then they will go with you.

Unless the "underbidder" goes again and you're pressured into going higher on a false pretence, obviously would be a fairly nefarious practice for an estate agent and potentially ruinous if caught.

Then again this happened, so who knows.

https://www.herald.ie/news/top-lawyer-to-face-charge-of-stealing-400-from-clients-bank-card-at-atm-39122977.html

JP100

JimmyVik wrote: »

Can you please calm down there.
Enough. I give up. Its like an assault from you. Are you like this in real life?
Chill out. Argument over. We dont have to carry it on.

I asked you before to stay on topic please. Nobody wants to read your constant obsessions about me on here. End off.

Reps4jesus

nerrad01 wrote: »

which bank was this with out of interest?

with KBC

JP100

PommieBast wrote: »

Trouble is for WFH to work for anything other than the very short-term someone really has to have some sort of home-office setup (absolute minimum of dedicated desk), and I am pretty certain such people are a clear minority. 100% WFH on the dining table trashes both productivity and work-life balance..

You make it sound like working from home is akin to going to the moon. It's not particularly hard to set up a proper desk to work at home. Also, the present situation is not a true barometer of WFH. In the midst of a pandemic, full households every day, people highly stressed, little in the way of the usual escapist outlets, children at home all day, everyday, etc etc. When all of this does eventually pass, people would be working from home in much more amenable situations and for the folk who do manage to do it smoothly now, the option of WFH will take on an even greater appeal.

JimmyVik

JP100 wrote: »

I asked you before to stay on topic please. Nobody wants to read your constant obsessions about me on here. End off.

Assetbacked

JP100 wrote: »

You make it sound like working from home is akin to going to the moon. It's not particularly hard to set up a proper desk to work at home. Also, the present situation is not a true barometer of WFH. In the midst of a pandemic, full households every day, people highly stressed, little in the way of the usual escapist outlets, children at home all day, everyday, etc etc. When all of this does eventually pass, people would be working from home in much more amenable situations and for the folk who do manage to do it smoothly now, the option of WFH will take on an even greater appeal.

This is exactly the point with WFH now. It is not a fair barometer given households are full of people and there is no easy way to separate work from home life given we are all housebound for 23 hours per day on average.

In my own case, my company recently cobbled together the systems and hardware to enable us work from home but it did not exist before then. It has made me realise that I would do a commute maybe three times per week if I could WFH the other two days, which would enable us to live outside of Dublin. It is something which we are now considering for our home purchase (1-2 year plan) where we were not before, especially seeing how nice of a place can be got with plenty of space and tranquility for relatively lower cost to Dublin prices.

L1011

JP100 wrote: »

I asked you before to stay on topic please. Nobody wants to read your constant obsessions about me on here. End off.

If you have issues with a post, report them rather than trying to moderate them yourself

JP100

Assetbacked wrote: »

This is exactly the point with WFH now. It is not a fair barometer given households are full of people and there is no easy way to separate work from home life given we are all housebound for 23 hours per day on average.

In my own case, my company recently cobbled together the systems and hardware to enable us work from home but it did not exist before then. It has made me realise that I would do a commute maybe three times per week if I could WFH the other two days, which would enable us to live outside of Dublin. It is something which we are now considering for our home purchase (1-2 year plan) where we were not before, especially seeing how nice of a place can be got with plenty of space and tranquility for relatively lower cost to Dublin prices.

Good points well made and I doubt you will not be the only person thinking along the lines of WFH as a variable in the context of a house purchase. In relation to your company having to cobble things together at the last minute, it reminds me of another company that I know of who had to do something similiar. One of the senior partners in this company had in recent years been railing against the concept of WFH; not adequately set up for it, didn't have the proper resources for it, employees lacking desktop screens at home, etc, etc. The talk amongst those employees in that particular company now is those excuses no longer apply because when everything shut down they had no choice but to set up for remote working. With those said same employees now as busy and productive as ever.

If you also think back to when this whole crisis kicked off a number of the bigger and more forward thinking companies (Google, Indeed, LinkedIn) were ahead of the goverment and set up and established their employees working from home. Such companies will again take the lead in all of this and other companies will follow suit. A situation in the future whereby the option of WFH on a full or part time basis will be seen as very appealing for a myriad of reasons to a significant cohort of the working population.

JP100

L1011 wrote: »

If you have issues with a post, report them rather than trying to moderate them yourself

That's exactly what I'll do if it continues to reoccur.

Reversal

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2020/0417/1132149-rent-sale-property-ireland/

"Orla Hegarty, from the School of Architecture in UCD, saids there is less money and less confidence in the market so inevitably prices will drop.

"Bear in mind that the crisis was much more than an affordability crisis than a supply crisis. Prices are coming down is a good thing, it's just happened faster and harder than anticipated." "

AND

"Meanwhile, lecturer in Housing at DIT and Property Expert Lorcan Sirr said many people will be rethinking their plans to move and to sell in light of future unemployment vulnerability.

He also said banks will be more cautious about who they give mortgages to.

"Banks will also start to tighten up on mortgage lending for the same reasons they don't know which of their applicants will have a job in six months' time.

"Every cloud has as silver lining for some people there will be opportunities in the market, if you are a cash buyer in the market then that is always an opportunity for purchasers in the market." "

Yet, here on boards, John and Mary who recently bought a new build off plans at 90% LTV cannot fathom how prices can fall, because "people still need somewhere to live"

awec

Reversal wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2020/0417/1132149-rent-sale-property-ireland/

"Orla Hegarty, from the School of Architecture in UCD, saids there is less money and less confidence in the market so inevitably prices will drop.

"Bear in mind that the crisis was much more than an affordability crisis than a supply crisis. Prices are coming down is a good thing, it's just happened faster and harder than anticipated." "

AND

"Meanwhile, lecturer in Housing at DIT and Property Expert Lorcan Sirr said many people will be rethinking their plans to move and to sell in light of future unemployment vulnerability.

He also said banks will be more cautious about who they give mortgages to.

"Banks will also start to tighten up on mortgage lending for the same reasons they don't know which of their applicants will have a job in six months' time.

"Every cloud has as silver lining for some people there will be opportunities in the market, if you are a cash buyer in the market then that is always an opportunity for purchasers in the market." "

Yet, here on boards, John and Mary who recently bought a new build off plans at 90% LTV cannot fathom how prices can fall, because "people still need somewhere to live"

I think you’re having an argument with yourself at this stage. Who thinks prices can’t fall?

Banks being more stringent with lending, cash buyers the winner, sounds a lot like what many on here have been saying.

fliball123

awec wrote: »

I think you’re having an argument with yourself at this stage. Who thinks prices can’t fall?

Banks being more stringent with lending, cash buyers the winner, sounds a lot like what many on here have been saying.

The argument is how much they will fall by and how quickly will they go back up and how much property will be available to buy at the price people want

awec

I also noticed that Reversal omitted this part of the article:

Mr Lyons also said there has been a huge fall off in the number of properties being put up for sale.

"If you look at the week starting 5 April there was an 80% fall in the number of listings in 2020 compared 2019.

An 80% fall in listings. Also sounds like what a lot have been saying! No mass-panic firesale yet anyway, those waiting for their half price house might have to wait a while longer.

And this bit:

"The last time we had an economic rash and prices plummeted we saw vulture funds snap up housing at discounted rates and then sell them, essentially profiteering on the back of an economic crisis. We have to make sure that the same degree of profiteering doesn't happen at the expense of Irish people again."

Cash rich vulture funds who don't need to go near Irish banks snap up housing at the expense of ordinary buyers. Goodness, this is all starting to sound very familiar...

fliball123

awec wrote: »

I also noticed that Reversal omitted this part of the article:



An 80% fall in listings. Also sounds like what a lot have been saying! No mass-panic firesale yet anyway, those waiting for their half price house might have to wait a while longer.

And this bit:



Cash rich vulture funds who don't need to go near Irish banks snap up housing at the expense of ordinary buyers. Goodness, this is all starting to sound very familiar...

I have been ridiculed by those on the prices are going to fall by 30% brigade for stating that the supply side will dwindle due to people not having to sell at a reduced rate and can hold on for years. I have also being saying the availability of property on myhome has been coming down day by day for the last 3/4 weeks but everyone is still marching on the demand side. Demand is down so prices will plummet and forgetting that the supply side is drying up as well you might get a bargain over the next 12 months but probably not on a property you want or in an area you want

Browney7

awec wrote: »

I also noticed that Reversal omitted this part of the article:



An 80% fall in listings. Also sounds like what a lot have been saying! No mass-panic firesale yet anyway, those waiting for their half price house might have to wait a while longer.

And this bit:



Cash rich vulture funds who don't need to go near Irish banks snap up housing at the expense of ordinary buyers. Goodness, this is all starting to sound very familiar...

A large part of listings dropping is likely more linked to an attitude of "what's the point in listing it right now, no one is going to be able to buy for months" rather than a "prices dropping, going to keep it for years now" mentality.

There will be sellers for a variety of reasons including executor sales, investors happy to sell at the price they can achieve in the market and people who holding for a few more years makes no sense as it will dilute available CGT reliefs (PPR reliefs and 2013-15 7 year CGT relief) and don't wish to rent it in the meantime.

Hubertj

fliball123 wrote: »

I have been ridiculed by those on the prices are going to fall by 30% brigade for stating that the supply side will dwindle due to people not having to sell at a reduced rate and can hold on for years. I have also being saying the availability of property on myhome has been coming down day by day for the last 3/4 weeks but everyone is still marching on the demand side. Demand is down so prices will plummet and forgetting that the supply side is drying up as well you might get a bargain over the next 12 months but probably not on a property you want or in an area you want

I'm predicting a 185% drop in prices. The 30% brigade don't have a clue.

Cyrus

JP100 wrote: »

With those said same employees now as busy and productive as ever.

If you also think back to when this whole crisis kicked off a number of the bigger and more forward thinking companies (Google, Indeed, LinkedIn) were ahead of the goverment and set up and established their employees working from home. Such companies will again take the lead in all of this and other companies will follow suit. A situation in the future whereby the option of WFH on a full or part time basis will be seen as very appealing for a myriad of reasons to a significant cohort of the working population.

how do you know they are as productive as ever? i know for a fact that several people in my team arent as productive as ever and their managers are strugging to cover their workload as well as their own.

We have been set up to work from home for a few years and i do it on occasion when it suits me, but despite i prefer to be in the office, and my team do too (in majority). So its not just infastructure.

It may suit you, but that doesnt mean it suits everyone. I have also seen email complaints from our commercial people who feel now that they are WFH they are expected to be available 24/7. And i have had a lot more call at 7.30/8pm than i would normally.

fliball123

Hubertj wrote: »

I'm predicting a 185% drop in prices. The 30% brigade don't have a clue.

Well best of luck with your prediction. It will be hard getting a figure for the next 6 months as I can see very few property changing hands

JP100

Once you factor in that a certain degree of posting is going to be peppered by posters with skin in the game so to speak, this is quite an informative thread. There's been a lot of postings on existing builds in this thread but little in the way in musings on self builds. Anyone any thoughts on self builds and how this might play out over the next year or so? Will builders be more amenable in terms of what they charge per square ft etc? I'll assume they'll also be a pent up lag of new builds that first will need to be cleared?