Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

growleaves · 15-04-2020 05:50PM

But that number will only be achieved because of the unprecedented lockdown. What would the figure be without a lockdown?

The countries which refused to lock down are not being wiped out.

What point are you even trying to make?

The point that comparing this pandemic with the deadliest pandemics in history is unwarranted, or at least premature in the extreme.

joe40 · 15-04-2020 05:50PM

Mr.S wrote: »

Why are we still looking at cases in isolation though. Do we still follow Spains trend when we look at ICU admissions and deaths?

Exactly, surely the death rate is a better measure of how we're doing, and so far we're much better than the UK per capital. Not sure about comparison with other countries.

Seamai · 15-04-2020 05:50PM

RobertKK wrote: »

Traveller funerals are now an issue, 150 people at one funeral.

Quite a few travelled over from London WTF! but then the normal rules don't apply to Travellers, do they? Will anyone get their knuckles rapt over this? I very much doubt it.

jobeenfitz · 15-04-2020 05:51PM

shocksy wrote: »

It doesn't matter if they had an underlying condition ffs. They still lost their lives. I don't know why people are hung up on underlying conditions. It's like some of you's are happy to write off anyone with an underlying condition.

I think you wrote this without thinking? I'm sure the poster wasn't happy to write anyone off. He made a statement that there may be underline conditions.

I think some of these Pseudo-shocked posts are people wanting to look great, in a mother Theresa kinda way and to get likes.

Its just an opinion, I could be wrong?

These type of posts p1ss me off.

Iamabeliever · 15-04-2020 05:53PM

rm212 wrote: »

Scary how closely we’re following Spain’s trend...

Is that deaths?

JP Liz V1 · 15-04-2020 05:53PM

paddythere wrote: »

Fair play to ze German for helping us out. They really have their **** together regarding this whole thing. It will probably be them who develop the vaccine too. A lot to be learned from them about how to run a country properly

What's the numbers in Germany like now?

10000maniacs · 15-04-2020 05:53PM

rm212 wrote: »

Scary how closely we’re following Spain’s trend...

Now who still thinks it was a great idea to spend a week in Cheltenham? The were a lot of yay sayers on this forum a month ago. Makes me sick to think about what those fools have done to this country.

Mwengwe · 15-04-2020 05:54PM

jobeenfitz wrote: »

I think you wrote this without thinking? I'm sure the poster wasn't happy to write anyone off. He made a statement that there may be underline conditions.

I think some of these Pseudo-shocked posts are people wanting to look great, in a mother Theresa kinda way and to get likes.

Its just an opinion, I could be wrong?

These type of posts p1ss me off.

I think that's unfair, I have a similar reaction to those 'underlying condition' posts - I can understand why people do it, but I also don't think people realise how it comes across. I try to bite my tongue most of the time. It's not a virtue-signalling thing, it genuinely does seem very disrespectful to the deceased to me to be seeking out photos to ascertain whether they were obese or not. Maybe it's just me? Can you not see that?

Another thing - people have said that it comforts them somewhat to know there was an underlying condition. Yet in the next breath they'll be saying 'well maybe they had an underlying condition they didn't know about!' At which point, where's the comfort? Any of us could have an underlying condition we don't know about!

rm212 · 15-04-2020 05:54PM

Iamabeliever wrote: »

Is that deaths?

Well, it will certainly result in them if our cases continue to climb like that

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 15-04-2020 05:55PM

growleaves wrote: »

The huge worldwide reaction to this pandemic stemmed from taking the models of Dr. Fauci and Dr. Ferguson (of Imperial College London) as normative.

So if Dr. Fauci is now revising his figures downwards - what does that tell us?

Is he minimising the concerns that he himself raised ?

I get that people don't want to gamble lives away but its seriously time to wise up. The medical experts who predicted that this would be a deadly catastrophe of once-in-a-century significance have already walked back those predictions and revised their models downwards. All that's left of those initial predictions are the emotional investment that people have in them.

And what do you think experts and leaders do, when they realise that something could have the potential to kill millions of people?

They react with appropriate measures to decrease it's impact... which is exactly what the world has tried to do. (to varying degrees of success in different countries)

You are suggesting that they were wrong in their predictions, simply because we are not currently experiencing those originally predicted numbers... did you think those predictions were best case scenario? They are usually worst case scenario - without appropriate preventative measures in place.

These experts need to get people to listen to them, and heed the advice and warnings. So obviously they are going to highlight the worst case scenarios, just in case leaders don't take it seriously!

growleaves · 15-04-2020 05:55PM

The problem with your analysis is when you remove counter measures such as the mitigation policies.

It's had an enormous impact on restricting and delaying spread and Fauci stresses at every opportunity.

Bear in mind that the initial predictions both from the Fauci-Birx team and Imperial College London models included social distancing in their models. There was to be millions of deaths *with* mitigation policies.

We're going to able to make comparisons with states that didn't lock down when the dust settles.

Gooey Looey · 15-04-2020 05:56PM

RobertKK wrote: »

Traveller funerals are now an issue, 150 people at one funeral.

I'd feel sorry for the poor virus if it picked one of them as host

nacho libre · 15-04-2020 05:56PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

Apparently you are supposed to look at the bright side.

Well a bright side to me is that ICU are not being overwhelmed, and doctor and nurses are not having to play God by deciding who lives or dies. Of course that;s cold comfort to many familes tonight- just as it has been over the last month, but the stark reality is many more families are being spared that grief because we did not adopt the same approach as other countries like the UK. I'm not denying that we made mistakes by allowing people go to Cheltenham, keeping pubs open, and not closing Knock airport sooner, but thank goodness we axed the st patricks days parade. What a cluster**** we would have on our hands now if we did not.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts · 15-04-2020 05:57PM

Ace2007 wrote: »

that 4 under the age of 34 now?

I thought this old killed the elderly what's happening?

That was never, ever said. You can be immunocompromised at any age. It was elderly and/or immunocompromised people most at risk, always.

Kermit.de.frog · 15-04-2020 05:57PM

France reports 1,438 new deaths from coronavirus (total 17,167) and 4,560 new cases.

Snow Garden · 15-04-2020 05:58PM

Seamai wrote: »

Quite a few travelled over from London WTF! but then the normal rules don't apply to Travellers, do they? Will anyone get their knuckles rapt over this? I very much doubt it.

With your use of the word 'rapt' its very hard to say...

johnfás · 15-04-2020 05:59PM

rm212 wrote: »

Scary how closely we’re following Spain’s trend...

Our death rate is 4.5 times less than Spain at 83.65 per million compared to 390.7 per million.

It is a function of increased testing that you have more cases.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts · 15-04-2020 05:59PM

shocksy wrote: »

It doesn't matter if they had an underlying condition ffs. They still lost their lives. I don't know why people are hung up on underlying conditions. It's like some of you's are happy to write off anyone with an underlying condition.

Because there's always comments along the lines of "I thought it was only the elderly" when it was always emphasised that people with underlying conditions of ANY age were high risk. For as long as people aren't getting that, it will be mentioned. I have an underlying condition and I'm not remotely offended by this being pointed out.

uncleoswald · 15-04-2020 06:00PM

growleaves wrote: »

The countries which refused to lock down are not being wiped out.

There are so many factors at play, population density, pre-existing pandemic infrastructure, level of tourism/travel in the weeks presiding the pandemic, it's extremely difficult to make like for like comparisons. What we can see though from places like Italy, Spain, New York is that if the virus becomes widespread the death toll is alarming. And Sweden's death toll is climbing rapidly.

growleaves wrote: »

The point that comparing this pandemic with the deadliest pandemics in history is unwarranted, or at least premature in the extreme.

And any comparison with the normal flu, particularly when comparing death counts but not taking the mitigating effect of the lockdowns into account, are stupid in the extreme

Iamabeliever · 15-04-2020 06:00PM

rm212 wrote: »

Well, it will certainly result in them if our cases continue to climb like that

Not true. Cases result from testing. Spain unfortunately havent done near enough relative Ireland

bekker · 15-04-2020 06:01PM

Still includes one death that was rescinded by HSE but not allocated to an area.

rm212 · 15-04-2020 06:01PM

johnfás wrote: »

Our death rate is 4.5 times less than Spain at 83.65 per million compared to 390.7 per million.

It is a function of increased testing that you have more cases.

Did I mention anything about death rate or how we are doing in deaths compared to Spain? No, I said it was scary how closely our trend graph of cases is following Spain’s; nothing more, nothing less. But while we are at it, it is a function of increased cases that you have more deaths, just so you know.

rm212 · 15-04-2020 06:02PM

Iamabeliever wrote: »

Not true. Cases result from testing. Spain unfortunately havent done near enough relative Ireland

Are you telling me that deaths don’t result from cases? And if our cases continue to increase, we won’t have more deaths? Because all I said was that increased cases will result in more deaths.

tobefrank321 · 15-04-2020 06:03PM

Well my fears about the Travelling Community continuing to go back and forth to the UK and London in particular were well founded. Rules don't apply to some.

Danzy · 15-04-2020 06:03PM

Seamai wrote: »

Quite a few travelled over from London WTF! but then the normal rules don't apply to Travellers, do they? Will anyone get their knuckles rapt over this? I very much doubt it.

It's career suicide to call them to order.

Paddy Joe McDonagh is ethnically different now to my neighbour Paddy Joe McDonagh.

moceri · 15-04-2020 06:03PM

Seamai wrote: »

Quite a few travelled over from London WTF! but then the normal rules don't apply to Travellers, do they? Will anyone get their knuckles rapt over this? I very much doubt it.

or as Martin Collins would have us all believe, it is just an assertion of cultural identity...i.e. the rules don't apply to us.

UrbanFret · 15-04-2020 06:04PM

10000maniacs wrote: »

Now who still thinks it was a great idea to spend a week in Cheltenham? The were a lot of yay sayers on this forum a month ago. Makes me sick to think about what those fools have done to this country.

So it's been confirmed that these cases are related to travelling to Cheltenham. Link please.

keynes · 15-04-2020 06:05PM

Tony EH wrote: »

Unfortunately, he can't just be ignored when his actions are making things worse and not better. If he was some tin pot clown in some insignificant backwater, it would be fine to so. But, alas, he's not.

Correct: Holohan should have advised against Cheltenham, flights from Milan etc much earlier. Leaving aside the blunders with nursing homes, everything he has done has been reactive

Jim_Hodge · 15-04-2020 06:06PM

rm212 wrote: »

Did I mention anything about death rate or how we are doing in deaths compared to Spain? No, I said it was scary how closely our trend graph of cases is following Spain’s; nothing more, nothing less. But while we are at it, it is a function of increased cases that you have more deaths, just so you know.

The trend with this virus will be more or less the same in many countries. What matters is that a country can keep the level of infection within manageable levels for their health service to cope. More cases does not necessarily lead to a pro rata increase in deaths, if the health service can maintain treatment levels.

Talisman · 15-04-2020 06:08PM

growleaves wrote: »

So if Dr. Fauci is now revising his figures downwards - what does that tell us?

Preventative measures save lives.

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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