Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

Mwengwe · 15-04-2020 05:06PM

Ivy Big Looter wrote: »

Cases surely need to be dropping by tomorrow. I thought the peak was meant to be last week?! How can more people be getting this if we all stuck indoors!?

Because we haven't. It's easy to spend time online and think everyone is on the same page but there's a lot of irresponsible people out there.

lbj666 · 15-04-2020 05:06PM

is_that_so wrote: »

They are near the end of that backlog. He did say that the positivity rate is quite constant.

We will get a proper of reflection of new cases per day one the backlog is cleared, but we can't be waiting for a week or so to see a trend.
They really need a graph for confirmed cases vs date swabbed/or refered to really get any information on trends of tests so far.

I presume the non German tests are from a backlog too?

ACitizenErased · 15-04-2020 05:07PM

is_that_so wrote: »

They will be considering making the definition broader over the next week once they feel they have the testing system ready to go.

They just said that's going to happen next week because the backlog is cleared after tomorrow. You genuinely cannot judge how we are doing based on daily cases when such a massive backlog existed.

Duke of Url · 15-04-2020 05:07PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

But our death rate is climbing up too.

Apparently you are supposed to look at the bright side.

Mwengwe · 15-04-2020 05:07PM

Deleted User wrote: »

When is the next day,we are likely to see no.deaths or new cases??

We arent out of this,until then

Day of a universal vaccine

timmy_mallet · 15-04-2020 05:08PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

But our death rate is climbing up too.

Which means what?

fritzelly · 15-04-2020 05:08PM

rm212 wrote: »

I remember a lot of posters recently saying, “oh the number of new cases is not increasing, that’s good, the higher deaths is expected because we had an increase in cases last week”. Now the narrative is, “oh the deaths are staying steady and possibly decreasing slightly, more cases are just because more testing!” Which one is it?

I swear, anything to fit the narrative that we’re over it and ready to lift restrictions...

Many say the new cases don't matter
But every 100 cases is 20 in hospital, 5 on ventilators and 2 deaths

rm212 · 15-04-2020 05:08PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

You realise that part of the backlog is part of the Irish total? We didn't send the entire backlog to Germany.

Among the backlog, there statistically shouldn’t be a huge difference in the % of positive cases from day to day, if the Irish lab is handling 20-30% per day. Those backlog samples range across a long time period and should be averaging out in terms of positives per day. So if our overall number of Irish lab confirmed cases is increasing, it is much more likely that the 70%-80% of fresh tests are making up the majority of that increase.

timmy_mallet · 15-04-2020 05:08PM

Mwengwe wrote: »

Day of a universal vaccine

Which is never.

antodeco · 15-04-2020 05:09PM

The one thing I will say, is that our numbers do seem to be accurate. Of all those cases that came back from Germany, you would assume none of them were hospitalised, as Id assume if they were bad, they have been tested in the hospitals here quite quickly. So in my opinion. having 400+ cases come back from Germany today means that 400+ people were not hopsitalised from these.

Id rather have 10000 cases a day and no hospitalisations/deaths. That way it will burn through the population quickly.

lbj666 · 15-04-2020 05:09PM

Mwengwe wrote: »

Because we haven't. It's easy to spend time online and think everyone is on the same page but there's a lot of irresponsible people out there.

The reproduction rate has dropped from 3 to 1 though. We haven't seen that reflected in no. of cases yet because the backlog has totally muddied the waters .

smelly sock · 15-04-2020 05:09PM

spookwoman wrote: »

Lets hope it's that and not down to the muppets who can't stay at home

People need to go out. Get over it.

Quantum Erasure · 15-04-2020 05:09PM

Mwengwe wrote: »

Because we haven't. It's easy to spend time online and think everyone is on the same page but there's a lot of irresponsible people out there.

or essential workers, or people doing a weekly shop... the 'lockdown' was always only meant to slow the spread, flatten the curve, it was never meant to stop it fully.

is_that_so · 15-04-2020 05:10PM

lbj666 wrote: »

We will get a proper of reflection of new cases per day one the backlog is cleared, but we can't be waiting for a week or so to see a trend.
They really need a graph for confirmed cases vs date swabbed/or refered to really get any information on trends of tests so far.

I presume the non German tests are from a backlog too?

Mostly ongoing on the Irish ones I think. Backlog aside, we are now more or less up to date on testing I believe.

branie2 · 15-04-2020 05:10PM

KiKi III wrote: »

What are you basing that on?

the number of deaths

s1ippy · 15-04-2020 05:10PM

Iamabeliever wrote: »

Does anyone have any knowledge of how hospitals are coping ? - there is obviously a larger influx of covid patient but what about non covid patients requiring treatment.

From the press conference, people just aren't going in. From this article, many likely dying at home.
https://www.thejournal.ie/covid-19-deaths-5073495-Apr2020/

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 15-04-2020 05:10PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

Apparently you are supposed to look at the bright side.

Yes, always...

Sure they're only old people dying anyway, right?

Look on the brightside, at least it's not that 34 year old around the corner from you... oh wait

marno21 · 15-04-2020 05:11PM

Tony H said there that there has been an increase in testing. That's some of the reason behind the increased cases.

Those who are concerned about the death rate increasing, please take the time to research the lag between infection, onset of symptoms and death. It has been repeated many times on this thread.

15-04-2020 05:12PM

lbj666 wrote: »

The reproduction rate has dropped from 3 to 1 though. We haven't seen that reflected in no. of cases yet because the backlog has totally muddied the waters .

If its taking 7 to 10 days to show sythoms....we should in theory,now have nearly only cases spread in houses??

Why is it still going up?

skallywag · 15-04-2020 05:13PM

branie2 wrote: »

the number of deaths

Over what, a few days?!

You need much more data before you can reach such a conclusion.

ACitizenErased · 15-04-2020 05:13PM

Deleted User wrote: »

If its taking 7 to 10 days to show sythoms....we should in theory,now have nearly only cases spread in houses??

Why is it still going up?

Because there is a backlog.... how many times has this been said

ACitizenErased · 15-04-2020 05:13PM

skallywag wrote: »

Over what, a few days?!

You need much more data before you can reach such a conclusion.

Our ICU numbers are dropping for the second day in a row. I think we're on the opposite side of the curve.

lbj666 · 15-04-2020 05:13PM

fritzelly wrote: »

Many say the new cases don't matter
But every 100 cases is 20 in hospital, 5 on ventilators and 2 deaths

It's not that they don't matter, many here are making a flawed assessment of the trend of new cases which are scewed by the backlog,

15-04-2020 05:14PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Because there is a backlog.... how many times has this been said

We have 657 cases,from.here....thought all.backlog was away to germany??

Were those 657 infected from since start of lockdown or not?

skallywag · 15-04-2020 05:14PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Our ICU numbers are dropping for the second day in a row. I think we're on the opposite side of the curve.

It is far to early to say that. If the trend continues in one to two weeks, then certainly.

You cannot look at a statistics with one or two days worth of numbers.

ACitizenErased · 15-04-2020 05:15PM

Deleted User wrote: »

We have 657 cases,from.here....thought all.backlog was away to germany??

Were those 657 from since start of lockdown or not?

60-70% of the backlog went to Germany, the rest was dealt with here.

is_that_so · 15-04-2020 05:15PM

rm212 wrote: »

I remember a lot of posters recently saying, “oh the number of new cases is not increasing, that’s good, the higher deaths is expected because we had an increase in cases last week”. Now the narrative is, “oh the deaths are staying steady and possibly decreasing slightly, more cases are just because more testing!” Which one is it?

I swear, anything to fit the narrative that we’re over it and ready to lift restrictions...

Numbers into hospital, numbers in ICU and deaths are what really matter. Higher new cases is less of a cause of alarm now as it just means more testing. In time that should plateau and begins to drop.

coastwatch · 15-04-2020 05:16PM

Deleted User wrote: »

If its taking 7 to 10 days to show sythoms....we should in theory,now have nearly only cases spread in houses??

Why is it still going up?

Spread in nursing homes and long term residential settings.
The CMO said they have seen a big fall off in GP referrals for testing, so much lower community spread.

is_that_so · 15-04-2020 05:17PM

skallywag wrote: »

It is far to early to say that. If the trend continues in one to two weeks, then certainly.

You cannot look at a statistics with one or two days worth of numbers.

It has risen but has been steady for a while and has never got to a point which would put the system under pressure.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 15-04-2020 05:17PM

marno21 wrote: »

Tony H said there that there has been an increase in testing. That's some of the reason behind the increased cases.

Those who are concerned about the death rate increasing, please take the time to research the lag between infection, onset of symptoms and death. It has been repeated many times on this thread.

Increases in cases will produce an increase in deaths... statistically speaking.

Whether they came from an Irish lab or a German lab, or there is a backlog... or the tests are 2 weeks old... statistically none of that is really important. More cases will produce more deaths. And that is exactly what we're witnessing.

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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