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Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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Comments

  • #2822
    kevin12345
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭kevin12345


    Rvsmmnps wrote: »
    Can people just not stress over the new cases. It's an absolutely pointless number. The end of this is much much sooner than you think.

    Please listen to the briefing Simon Harris gave earlier, if you haven't already. As much as I wish you were right, this is far from over. The focus needs to be on the number of deaths and the number in ICU.


  • #2823
    Coyote
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭Coyote


    Number updated to match today's reportI have included the total numbers reported today
    resent cases
    12-4-2020 4.8%
    13-4-2020 5.46%

    No Change in number
    509428.PNG

    Slow Change
    509429.PNG

    Big Drop in numbers
    509430.PNG

    again with all of this I'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
    if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late



    interesting visualization of covid19
    http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/


  • #2824
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,246 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Martina1991 wrote: »
    Testing doesn't stop the spread of the virus.

    People stop the spread of the virus.

    Hand washing, isolation, distancing, PPE, infection control. These are the tools that stop people getting infected in nursing homes, not testing.

    This needs stickied


  • #2825
    UrbanFret
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,078 ✭✭✭UrbanFret


    Is there a possibility that some of the tests sent to Germany were retested here if their conditions worsened?


  • #2826
    timmy_mallet
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭timmy_mallet


    Ace2007 wrote: »
    And how do staff get in and our or delivers, or trades men?

    If the weld the door of everyone's house in Ireland, the numbers be lowers as well - but you wouldn't suggest that would you?

    Complete agree, weld all doors shut and we get it to 0.


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  • #2827
    sdanseo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,293 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    JP Liz V1 wrote: »
    There's no curve flattening with our current numbers even with lockdown restrictions

    There absolutely is. I posted the below on the 16th March. We have exceeded even the best case scenario.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112856386&postcount=3467
    Ran a few numbers through excel. I wont bore you by posting the inner workings

    30% daily increase if sustained even for 3 weeks means 202,000 cases by 10th April.
    Slight reduction to a doubling every 3 days means 87,000 cases on the same date.
    If we can get that down to doubling every 5 days (which by the way is still faster than the original Chinese forecast of every 6) there's less than 10,000 cases on the 10th of April

    FLATTEN THE CURVE.


  • #2828
    skallywag
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,088 ✭✭✭skallywag


    kevin12345 wrote: »
    Please listen to the briefing Simon Harris gave earlier, if you haven't already. As much as I wish you were right, this is far from over. The focus needs to be on the number of deaths and the number in ICU.

    Excellent post.

    Deaths per day is the key number, as is ICU occupancy.

    New cases is pretty meaningless.


  • #2829
    blackcard
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,569 ✭✭✭blackcard


    Hard to know where exactly we are with testing. The German results are not useful in determining current trends. I think that the number of test results undertaken by the Irish laboratories has increased which will give us increased numbers of positive cases. It looks like the amount of testing is going to increase a lot over the next 2 weeks which will give us increased numbers of positive tests again. Probably be late next week before we know if we are past the peak


  • #2830
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    What was the number of new cases today when excluding the german results? Case numbers getting really damn high here..Ireland passed out South Korea today


  • #2831
    donfers
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,006 ✭✭✭donfers


    It reminds me a bit of the poppy fascists. One dare not criticise our glorious leaders they say. Well, we are doing poorly overall and this has been managed poorly. Per capita deaths and cases we are top 10 which is disgraceful considering we are an island nation, don’t have a dense population and most live in houses. We just seem to be making it up as we go along, see what other countries do, a bit of a, a bit of b and a bit of c, look earnest during press conferences, prepare west wing style speeches that say nothing but sound great. Spin will not beat the virus. Lack of forward-thinking, lack of initiative, lack of innovation, lack of preparation, inadequate testing, no travel restrictions until almost every other European country did it, no contact tracing app (they’ll say it’s not necessary but truth is they don’t know how to develop and manage it properly), no use of recent technology like AI and machine learning ( they don’t want the tech heads who can do this stuff in their cosy circle), inadequate PPE for our frontline staff (despite having months on China to prepare), elderly left to die in residential care with no proper resources, inaccurate modelling. Just a total shambles but they look earnest and tell us to wash our hands, not good enough I am afraid, not by a long shot and the fact that Trump and Johnson are utter buffoons does not excuse our guys. Always reactive, always slow, always indecisive, always excuses (testing and Ppe equipment always seem to be 7-10 days and in 7-10 days time it is still 7-10 days away) and through it all people are dying unnecessarily


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  • #2832
    bekker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 912 ✭✭✭bekker


    Cumulative deaths to 13th April.

    509431.png


  • #2833
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,917 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    wakka12 wrote: »
    What was the number of new cases today when excluding the german results? Case numbers getting really damn high here..Ireland passed out South Korea today
    527.


  • #2834
    Quantum Erasure
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,442 ✭✭✭✭Quantum Erasure


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Can people just not stress over the new cases. It's an absolutely pointless number. The end of this is much much sooner than you think.
    You're being naive at best, ignorant at worst.

    I'd agree with the first part of the post though...
    people are getting too hung up on, for eg. yesterdays low number of deaths, or any little 'jump' in case numbers


  • #2835
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    You need to watch the press conference. The CMO reiterated the growth rate is down significantly. The German cases occurred many weeks ago.


    It is still growing. The most positive thing you can say is it is not accelerating.


    509432.png


  • #2836
    Gynoid
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭Gynoid


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Tony said we need to remember the large increase today does not indicate growth. Percentage growth is still decreasing significantly. Really good graphs.

    It is not good though, is it. Well, just in my opinion. I hope these figures start going down soon. It may not be growth but persistent growth would be unthinkable at this stage . I cannot feel congratulatory that we do not have some kind of wild exponential growth when that would be impossible given our demographics. We are such a low density population. We have serious restrictions - supposedly. For a fair while now. And yet we have this persistence of numbers that are not great. About 40% extra on normal death numbers in a day any other year. I don't know what it is like in towns and cities, out here in the boonies it is silent, no cars, if you meet someone walking on the road we are backing up into gateways to give wider berth, the village shops are sombre places with people nervously keeping back from each other. Either this virus is bloody acrobatic or people are not staying at home somewhere.


  • #2837
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    wakka12 wrote: »
    What was the number of new cases today when excluding the german results? Case numbers getting really damn high here..Ireland passed out South Korea today

    527 new cases.


  • #2838
    Fr_Dougal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    Coyote wrote: »
    Number updated to match today's reportI have included the total numbers reported today
    resent cases
    12-4-2020 4.8%
    13-4-2020 5.46%

    No Change in number
    509428.PNG

    Slow Change
    509429.PNG

    Big Drop in numbers
    509430.PNG

    again with all of this I'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
    if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late



    interesting visualization of covid19
    http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

    Can you include number of deaths on your graphs? It would be helpful as cases aren’t the best indicator.

    Thanks.


  • #2839
    Rvsmmnps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 151 ✭✭Rvsmmnps


    They release figures that are old, to pipe up the hysteria knowing many don't look far into any details


  • #2840
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,150 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman


    wakka12 wrote: »
    What was the number of new cases today when excluding the german results? Case numbers getting really damn high here..Ireland passed out South Korea today

    527 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported by Irish laboratories
    465 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported by a laboratory in Germany


  • #2841
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,917 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    It is still growing. The most positive thing you can say is it is not accelerating.


    509432.png
    It is still growing yes. That's how mathematical growth rate works. Numbers increase but growth rate drops. The 500 odd new cases today (we can virtually ignore including the German numbers in new cases) is very little change from last week's numbers, indicating that while the numbers still increase, the growth rate is decreasing.


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  • #2842
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 13,344 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    It is still growing. The most positive thing you can say is it is not accelerating.

    The most positive thing one can say is it is decelerating.


  • #2843
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Tbf i picked up shopping for my folks in local town during the week....roughly 3 out of 4 were wearing masks


    That particular town,people would normally do best to.go againest any advice from government/obstruct gaurds as a pasttime....im suprised (and disappointed) that rest of country is not wearing masks :(

    If non wearing of masks at supermarkets was a significant contributor half the supermarkets in the country would be closed due to staff illness/ staff isolating. But I have not heard of one supermarket that have had to do this. Vast majority of transmission now is happening in people’s houses and in healthcare settings


  • #2844
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    It is still growing yes. That's how mathematical growth rate works. Numbers increase but growth rate drops. The 500 odd new cases today (we can virtually ignore including the German numbers in new cases) is very little change from last week's numbers, indicating that while the numbers still increase, the growth rate is decreasing.

    In order for the curve to be flattening it needs to not be growing. Very simple. We are not there yet.


  • #2845
    Sober Crappy Chemis
    Closed Accounts Posts: 461 ✭✭Sober Crappy Chemis


    Rvsmmnps wrote: »
    They release figures that are old, to pipe up the hysteria knowing many don't look far into any details

    You think the government want to encourage hysteria? What the fcuk are you smoking?


  • #2846
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,917 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    In order for the curve to be flattening it needs to not be growing. Very simple. We are not there yet.
    It's not growing exponentially. Our new cases have not gone madly over 600 in the past few days, suggesting linear growth. Means the R0 number is decreasing slowly but surely.


  • #2847
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Gynoid wrote: »
    It is not good though, is it. Well, just in my opinion. I hope these figures start going down soon. It may not be growth but persistent growth would be unthinkable at this stage . I cannot feel congratulatory that we do not have some kind of wild exponential growth when that would be impossible given our demographics. We are such a low density population. We have serious restrictions - supposedly. For a fair while now. And yet we have this persistence of numbers that are not great. About 40% extra on normal death numbers in a day any other year. I don't know what it is like in towns and cities, out here in the boonies it is silent, no cars, if you meet someone walking on the road we are backing up into gateways to give wider berth, the village shops are sombre places with people nervously keeping back from each other. Either this virus is bloody acrobatic or people are not staying at home somewhere.

    It is hard to figure where the new cases are coming from at such a high rate (even if we have broadly flattened it's still a lot of cases). Another poster asked a question last night which makes same point.
    Wildlife Actor wrote: »
    Can someone help me with timelines here? So if Tony Holohan tells us we have 500 "new cases" this evening, when are they likely to have been infected?

    Let's say I get sneezed on and infected on day 1. Presumably it could be 10 to 14 days before I develop symptoms. I wait a day or two, hoping against hope. Then I go to the Doc who says, OK you're a proper person to send for a test. Then I wait X days for a test, get tested, and then I wait Y days for the result. Then I'm a "new case".

    Isn't it possible (even leaving aside the delayed German tests) that a lot of "new cases" are actually people who were infected up to 4 weeks ago? Possibly longer?

    Sorry if this has been asked and answered multiple times before.


  • #2848
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    UrbanFret wrote: »
    Is there a possibility that some of the tests sent to Germany were retested here if their conditions worsened?

    It’s probable as a proportion of those waiting on results would have required hospitalisation. I hope they have linked the testing so we don’t have double counting.


  • #2849
    Fr_Dougal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    It is still growing yes. That's how mathematical growth rate works. Numbers increase but growth rate drops. The 500 odd new cases today (we can virtually ignore including the German numbers in new cases) is very little change from last week's numbers, indicating that while the numbers still increase, the growth rate is decreasing.

    No, we shouldn’t ignore the newly diagnosed cases from Germany.

    Sure we could send all tests off to Germany and claim that there are no positive results if that’s the case.


  • #2850
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    I still dont see how there could be over 500 cases still occurring now given the restrictions and that they have been in place for so long, would the vast majority of these new cases come from hospital and nursing home settings?


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  • #2851
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,917 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    No, we shouldn’t ignore the newly diagnosed cases from Germany.

    Sure we could send all tests off to Germany and claim that there are no positive results if that’s the case.
    They're not new. The CMO has explained this so many times, I don't get what you don't understand. They're from weeks back. They should NOT be included in the new case growth calculation. New cases are cases which have been tested in the last few days, not tested WEEKS ago. You can't say "oh, we've 500 new cases. but they were tested a month ago." We add 500 to the total and use the recent days number as the new.


This discussion has been closed.
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