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Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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Comments

  • #2852
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    It is still growing yes. That's how mathematical growth rate works. Numbers increase but growth rate drops. The 500 odd new cases today (we can virtually ignore including the German numbers in new cases) is very little change from last week's numbers, indicating that while the numbers still increase, the growth rate is decreasing.

    In order for the curve to be flattening it needs to not be growing. Very simple. We are not there yet.


  • #2853
    Sober Crappy Chemis
    Closed Accounts Posts: 461 ✭✭Sober Crappy Chemis


    Rvsmmnps wrote: »
    They release figures that are old, to pipe up the hysteria knowing many don't look far into any details

    You think the government want to encourage hysteria? What the fcuk are you smoking?


  • #2854
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    In order for the curve to be flattening it needs to not be growing. Very simple. We are not there yet.
    It's not growing exponentially. Our new cases have not gone madly over 600 in the past few days, suggesting linear growth. Means the R0 number is decreasing slowly but surely.


  • #2855
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Gynoid wrote: »
    It is not good though, is it. Well, just in my opinion. I hope these figures start going down soon. It may not be growth but persistent growth would be unthinkable at this stage . I cannot feel congratulatory that we do not have some kind of wild exponential growth when that would be impossible given our demographics. We are such a low density population. We have serious restrictions - supposedly. For a fair while now. And yet we have this persistence of numbers that are not great. About 40% extra on normal death numbers in a day any other year. I don't know what it is like in towns and cities, out here in the boonies it is silent, no cars, if you meet someone walking on the road we are backing up into gateways to give wider berth, the village shops are sombre places with people nervously keeping back from each other. Either this virus is bloody acrobatic or people are not staying at home somewhere.

    It is hard to figure where the new cases are coming from at such a high rate (even if we have broadly flattened it's still a lot of cases). Another poster asked a question last night which makes same point.
    Wildlife Actor wrote: »
    Can someone help me with timelines here? So if Tony Holohan tells us we have 500 "new cases" this evening, when are they likely to have been infected?

    Let's say I get sneezed on and infected on day 1. Presumably it could be 10 to 14 days before I develop symptoms. I wait a day or two, hoping against hope. Then I go to the Doc who says, OK you're a proper person to send for a test. Then I wait X days for a test, get tested, and then I wait Y days for the result. Then I'm a "new case".

    Isn't it possible (even leaving aside the delayed German tests) that a lot of "new cases" are actually people who were infected up to 4 weeks ago? Possibly longer?

    Sorry if this has been asked and answered multiple times before.


  • #2856
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    UrbanFret wrote: »
    Is there a possibility that some of the tests sent to Germany were retested here if their conditions worsened?

    It’s probable as a proportion of those waiting on results would have required hospitalisation. I hope they have linked the testing so we don’t have double counting.


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  • #2857
    Fr_Dougal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    It is still growing yes. That's how mathematical growth rate works. Numbers increase but growth rate drops. The 500 odd new cases today (we can virtually ignore including the German numbers in new cases) is very little change from last week's numbers, indicating that while the numbers still increase, the growth rate is decreasing.

    No, we shouldn’t ignore the newly diagnosed cases from Germany.

    Sure we could send all tests off to Germany and claim that there are no positive results if that’s the case.


  • #2858
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    I still dont see how there could be over 500 cases still occurring now given the restrictions and that they have been in place for so long, would the vast majority of these new cases come from hospital and nursing home settings?


  • #2859
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    No, we shouldn’t ignore the newly diagnosed cases from Germany.

    Sure we could send all tests off to Germany and claim that there are no positive results if that’s the case.
    They're not new. The CMO has explained this so many times, I don't get what you don't understand. They're from weeks back. They should NOT be included in the new case growth calculation. New cases are cases which have been tested in the last few days, not tested WEEKS ago. You can't say "oh, we've 500 new cases. but they were tested a month ago." We add 500 to the total and use the recent days number as the new.


  • #2860
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    Reporters asking about lifting restrictions. They need to stop with that. We are reaching the peak not the time for that


  • #2861
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,818 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    It is hard to figure where the new cases are coming from at such a high rate

    In and around hospitals/nursing homes? Must be somewhere else making big contributions though...


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  • #2862
    timmy_mallet
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭timmy_mallet


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    It is hard to figure where the new cases are coming from at such a high rate (even if we have broadly flattened it's still a lot of cases). Another poster asked a question last night which makes same point.

    New cases are coming from healthatcahre setting and Tesco. End of.


  • #2863
    Ace2007
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,029 ✭✭✭✭Ace2007


    Quantum Erasure wrote: »
    I'd agree with the first part of the post though...
    people are getting too hung up on, for eg. yesterdays low number of deaths, or any little 'jump' in case numbers

    I think the briefing should be done weekly - day to day numbers don't tell anything really. It's just worry people and the headline numbers don't really tell us anything.

    Gynoid wrote: »
    It is not good though, is it. Well, just in my opinion. I hope these figures start going down soon. It may not be growth but persistent growth would be unthinkable at this stage . I cannot feel congratulatory that we do not have some kind of wild exponential growth when that would be impossible given our demographics. We are such a low density population. We have serious restrictions - supposedly. For a fair while now. And yet we have this persistence of numbers that are not great. About 40% extra on normal death numbers in a day any other year. I don't know what it is like in towns and cities, out here in the boonies it is silent, no cars, if you meet someone walking on the road we are backing up into gateways to give wider berth, the village shops are sombre places with people nervously keeping back from each other. Either this virus is bloody acrobatic or people are not staying at home somewhere.

    There were hundreds of Garda on the roads at the weekend - if people were obeying the rules, the Garda wouldn't be required - the reality is people are becoming complacent. This idea of a lock down for 2/3 weeks is giving people the itch to think we are getting out of this soon, you have people thinking that restrictions will be lifted in May - saw an post about a gym in my area hoping to be open in May - this is the type of people in society - like gym of all places will not be opening in May - but there are people out there that do believe this.


  • #2864
    Martina1991
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,548 ✭✭✭Martina1991


    Rvsmmnps wrote:
    The CDC test kit that ostensibly identifies SARS-COV-2 originally used 3 genetic makers (N1, N2, N3). The N3 marker was removed and the N1 primers are not homologous to targets. Now CDC says results don’t have to be confirmed
    jackboy wrote:
    What does this mean?
    This depends on the platform used in each laboratory but ill try and give the gist to the best of my knowledge.

    The presence of 3 covid genes are looked for in testing.

    Some labs were reporting a positive result only when all 3 were present.
    Some were reporting a positive result when 2 out of the 3 were present.
    This was the recommended way of reporting results according to the manufacture.

    Now the manufactures are advising labs to report a test as being positive if even 1 gene is present. As these assays are very new they're being tweaked to be more sensitive and specific.

    This means anyone that previously reported as negative may now be reclassified as being positive if they had the presence of 1 gene.

    Its a "better safe than sorry" adjustment to reporting.

    The independent are reporting that less than 100 people were effected.


  • #2865
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    If non wearing of masks at supermarkets was a significant contributor half the supermarkets in the country would be closed due to staff illness/ staff isolating. But I have not heard of one supermarket that have had to do this. Vast majority of transmission now is happening in people’s houses and in healthcare settings

    This. This! Reports of supermarket staff getting sick are rare enough and they are there all day every day. Some have posted on here to say very little impact on numbers working/vs out sick. I think you'd be reasonably unlucky to catch it just walking through the supermarket, mask or no mask.


  • #2866
    timmy_mallet
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭timmy_mallet


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    In and around hospitals/nursing homes? Must be somewhere else making big contributions though...

    Supermarkets.


  • #2867
    RobertKK
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,771 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Deleted User wrote: »
    I don’t have any narrative. I am comparing to the countries of Western Europe, most like ourselves, open economies, mobile workforce, population of frequent travellers.

    But not countries who are doing better, and Norway and Finland for example are in the freedom of movement of people, open economies, dependent on the freedom of movement etc.
    We must aim to be average to worse and be thankful we aren't the very worse even if we are in the top 10 worse performing countries when one does the average death per population


  • #2868
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    bekker wrote: »
    Cumulative deaths to 13th April.

    509431.png

    Weld Dubliners in their homes is the answer


  • #2869
    Lesnar Defender
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37 ✭Lesnar Defender


    Per worldometer, the only European countries that will have more cases than us today are; UK, Italy, Spain, Russia & France


  • #2870
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    https://twitter.com/datavizireland/status/1249750295388790787?s=20


  • #2871
    easypazz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,346 ✭✭✭easypazz


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    No, we shouldn’t ignore the newly diagnosed cases from Germany.

    Sure we could send all tests off to Germany and claim that there are no positive results if that’s the case.

    Thats silly.

    The german results are added to the total positives since the start.


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  • #2872
    timmy_mallet
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭timmy_mallet


    Ace2007 wrote: »
    I think the briefing should be done weekly - day to day numbers don't tell anything really. It's just worry people and the headline numbers don't really tell us anything.




    There were hundreds of Garda on the roads at the weekend - if people were obeying the rules, the Garda wouldn't be required - the reality is people are becoming complacent. This idea of a lock down for 2/3 weeks is giving people the itch to think we are getting out of this soon, you have people thinking that restrictions will be lifted in May - saw an post about a gym in my area hoping to be open in May - this is the type of people in society - like gym of all places will not be opening in May - but there are people out there that do believe this.


    Large percentage of the population are accepting that life needs to return and have accepted the death rate that will follow.


  • #2873
    davemckenna25
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,253 ✭✭✭davemckenna25


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    In and around hospitals/nursing homes? Must be somewhere else making big contributions though...

    People not doing what they should, parties, visiting friends, etc...


  • #2874
    TheDoctor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,977 ✭✭✭TheDoctor


    We'll only be able to see proper case growth when we finally clear the backlog and the results coming through are only from tests in the previous 2/3 days.

    Currently getting results back from anything up to a month ago in our daily figures which gives a false picture of the current environment.


  • #2875
    Fr_Dougal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    They're not new. The CMO has explained this so many times, I don't get what you don't understand. They're from weeks back. They should NOT be included in the new case growth calculation.

    They’re newly diagnosed, what part of that don’t you understand? They SHOULD be included, not all of us are in favour of Chemical Ali type reporting of numbers.


  • #2876
    Peanut Butter Jelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭Peanut Butter Jelly


    I know it may not count for much, but in the last 10 days, we have had growth rates (excluding cases from Germany) under 10%. Considering we were close to 30% at Paddy's week, its a decent drop and shows the spread is slowing down, but we still have serious work to do


  • #2877
    timmy_mallet
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭timmy_mallet


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/datavizireland/status/1249750295388790787?s=20


    If people are recovering after avg 10 days, lets say, what's the rolling 10 day growth chart like?


  • #2878
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,305 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Lesnar Defender wrote: »
    Per worldometer, the only European countries that will have more cases than us today are; UK, Italy, Spain, Russia & France

    Which suggests we are doing a very good job with the testing


  • #2879
    timmy_mallet
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭timmy_mallet


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Weld Dubliners in their homes is the answer

    You want Dubliners to live, fair play.


  • #2880
    RugbyLad11
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 547 ✭✭✭RugbyLad11


    Deleted User wrote: »
    If non wearing of masks at supermarkets was a significant contributor half the supermarkets in the country would be closed due to staff illness/ staff isolating. But I have not heard of one supermarket that have had to do this. Vast majority of transmission now is happening in people’s houses and in healthcare settings

    But where are people getting the virus in the first place? it can't magically transport to your home. Everything else is closed so they must be catching it in the supermarket.


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  • #2881
    polesheep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,950 ✭✭✭polesheep


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Yes that was in either July or August 1993 in a Dublin hospital. My friend was awaiting to be called for a lung transplant in England. They were not drunk, but were sharing a bottle of wine with their lunch. There were superb staff in the hospital, I saw incredible work done there and my friend got his successful transplant.

    Anyway, this has nothing to do with Covid-19, and I’m sure public hospitals have much better supervision now.

    And I would hope that you have better supervision now.


This discussion has been closed.
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