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Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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Comments

  • #2822
    Martina1991
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,548 ✭✭✭Martina1991


    autumnbelle wrote:
    Testing has a huge amount to do with it they are having residents die before results are back. At the very beginning staff also hadn’t ppe
    Testing doesn't stop the spread of the virus.

    People stop the spread of the virus.

    Hand washing, isolation, distancing, PPE, infection control. These are the tools that stop people getting infected in nursing homes, not testing.


  • #2823
    expectationlost
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,475 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    we need more housing standards inspections so health workers (and everyone else) aren't living 2 adults to a room.


  • #2824
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Deleted User wrote: »
    You're being naive at best, ignorant at worst.
    The CMO literally just said the growth rate is still decreasing. Are you not watching the press conferences?


  • #2825
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    A fair ramp up.there


    Jesus,there nearly no let up

    No its not, the german cases are that old that they aren't new per say. People will have either recovered or been admitted to hosptial


  • #2826
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,192 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    RugbyLad11 wrote: »
    No one wears a mask when they go shopping so I don't understand why people are expecting the numbers to drop

    Tbf i picked up shopping for my folks in local town during the week....roughly 3 out of 4 were wearing masks


    That particular town,people would normally do best to.go againest any advice from government/obstruct gaurds as a pasttime....im suprised (and disappointed) that rest of country is not wearing masks :(


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  • #2827
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Apologies if these were posted already...

    1.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/iceland-finds-that-half-its-citizens-with-coronavirus-have-shown-no-symptoms-2020-04-10
    Iceland’s isolated location and sparse population mean that some vital information about the novel coronavirus is coming out of the island nation — especially considering that it’s already tested 10% of its population, which is more than any other country, according to USA Today.

    And the scariest finding: At any given time, about half of its citizens who have the coronavirus — and don’t know it — are not showing any symptoms. That’s double the CDC’s recent estimate that as many as one in four people with COVID-19 may be asymptomatic.
    2.
    https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/g03bip/coronavirus_31_dead_elderly_covered_in_feces_at/
    Quebec Premier François Legault said Saturday that he believed there might have been “gross negligence” by management of a private long-term care facility in Montreal that has seen at least 31 deaths since March 13.

    The facility, Résidence Herron in Dorval near Montreal’s Trudeau airport, is considered to be a luxury retirement home, with room for about 150 residents. It charges thousands of dollars per month for housing and care for each resident.

    Legault made the comments in the wake of revelations about troubling conditions inside the seniors home that came to light more than a week after local public officials descended on the building and discovered what was going on with the disease spreading among patients and staff.

    “Obviously, there’s an investigation, so I should be cautious, but I don’t feel like it,” he told reporters at a news conference in Quebec City. “You know it doesn’t make sense when you arrive at a facility and the majority of the staff are gone. So I think it looks a lot like gross negligence.”
    That news article and the reddit comments section is a worrying read, might even be distressing for some.


  • #2828
    tiegan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 613 ✭✭✭tiegan


    missed the presser, is there anywhere I can view it "after the fact" please?


  • #2829
    Ace2007
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,029 ✭✭✭✭Ace2007


    timmy_mallet wrote: »
    Well if they weld the doors of nursing homes shut, like China, it would half the death rate.

    And how do staff get in and our or delivers, or trades men?

    If the weld the door of everyone's house in Ireland, the numbers be lowers as well - but you wouldn't suggest that would you?


  • #2830
    kevin12345
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭kevin12345


    Rvsmmnps wrote: »
    Can people just not stress over the new cases. It's an absolutely pointless number. The end of this is much much sooner than you think.

    Please listen to the briefing Simon Harris gave earlier, if you haven't already. As much as I wish you were right, this is far from over. The focus needs to be on the number of deaths and the number in ICU.


  • #2831
    Coyote
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭Coyote


    Number updated to match today's reportI have included the total numbers reported today
    resent cases
    12-4-2020 4.8%
    13-4-2020 5.46%

    No Change in number
    509428.PNG

    Slow Change
    509429.PNG

    Big Drop in numbers
    509430.PNG

    again with all of this I'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
    if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late



    interesting visualization of covid19
    http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/


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  • #2832
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,192 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Martina1991 wrote: »
    Testing doesn't stop the spread of the virus.

    People stop the spread of the virus.

    Hand washing, isolation, distancing, PPE, infection control. These are the tools that stop people getting infected in nursing homes, not testing.

    This needs stickied


  • #2833
    UrbanFret
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,051 ✭✭✭UrbanFret


    Is there a possibility that some of the tests sent to Germany were retested here if their conditions worsened?


  • #2834
    timmy_mallet
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭timmy_mallet


    Ace2007 wrote: »
    And how do staff get in and our or delivers, or trades men?

    If the weld the door of everyone's house in Ireland, the numbers be lowers as well - but you wouldn't suggest that would you?

    Complete agree, weld all doors shut and we get it to 0.


  • #2835
    sdanseo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,276 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    JP Liz V1 wrote: »
    There's no curve flattening with our current numbers even with lockdown restrictions

    There absolutely is. I posted the below on the 16th March. We have exceeded even the best case scenario.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112856386&postcount=3467
    Ran a few numbers through excel. I wont bore you by posting the inner workings

    30% daily increase if sustained even for 3 weeks means 202,000 cases by 10th April.
    Slight reduction to a doubling every 3 days means 87,000 cases on the same date.
    If we can get that down to doubling every 5 days (which by the way is still faster than the original Chinese forecast of every 6) there's less than 10,000 cases on the 10th of April

    FLATTEN THE CURVE.


  • #2836
    skallywag
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,035 ✭✭✭skallywag


    kevin12345 wrote: »
    Please listen to the briefing Simon Harris gave earlier, if you haven't already. As much as I wish you were right, this is far from over. The focus needs to be on the number of deaths and the number in ICU.

    Excellent post.

    Deaths per day is the key number, as is ICU occupancy.

    New cases is pretty meaningless.


  • #2837
    blackcard
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,317 ✭✭✭blackcard


    Hard to know where exactly we are with testing. The German results are not useful in determining current trends. I think that the number of test results undertaken by the Irish laboratories has increased which will give us increased numbers of positive cases. It looks like the amount of testing is going to increase a lot over the next 2 weeks which will give us increased numbers of positive tests again. Probably be late next week before we know if we are past the peak


  • #2838
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    What was the number of new cases today when excluding the german results? Case numbers getting really damn high here..Ireland passed out South Korea today


  • #2839
    donfers
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,006 ✭✭✭donfers


    It reminds me a bit of the poppy fascists. One dare not criticise our glorious leaders they say. Well, we are doing poorly overall and this has been managed poorly. Per capita deaths and cases we are top 10 which is disgraceful considering we are an island nation, don’t have a dense population and most live in houses. We just seem to be making it up as we go along, see what other countries do, a bit of a, a bit of b and a bit of c, look earnest during press conferences, prepare west wing style speeches that say nothing but sound great. Spin will not beat the virus. Lack of forward-thinking, lack of initiative, lack of innovation, lack of preparation, inadequate testing, no travel restrictions until almost every other European country did it, no contact tracing app (they’ll say it’s not necessary but truth is they don’t know how to develop and manage it properly), no use of recent technology like AI and machine learning ( they don’t want the tech heads who can do this stuff in their cosy circle), inadequate PPE for our frontline staff (despite having months on China to prepare), elderly left to die in residential care with no proper resources, inaccurate modelling. Just a total shambles but they look earnest and tell us to wash our hands, not good enough I am afraid, not by a long shot and the fact that Trump and Johnson are utter buffoons does not excuse our guys. Always reactive, always slow, always indecisive, always excuses (testing and Ppe equipment always seem to be 7-10 days and in 7-10 days time it is still 7-10 days away) and through it all people are dying unnecessarily


  • #2840
    bekker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 912 ✭✭✭bekker


    Cumulative deaths to 13th April.

    509431.png


  • #2841
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    wakka12 wrote: »
    What was the number of new cases today when excluding the german results? Case numbers getting really damn high here..Ireland passed out South Korea today
    527.


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  • #2842
    Quantum Erasure
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,612 ✭✭✭Quantum Erasure


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Can people just not stress over the new cases. It's an absolutely pointless number. The end of this is much much sooner than you think.
    You're being naive at best, ignorant at worst.

    I'd agree with the first part of the post though...
    people are getting too hung up on, for eg. yesterdays low number of deaths, or any little 'jump' in case numbers


  • #2843
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    You need to watch the press conference. The CMO reiterated the growth rate is down significantly. The German cases occurred many weeks ago.


    It is still growing. The most positive thing you can say is it is not accelerating.


    509432.png


  • #2844
    Gynoid
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭Gynoid


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Tony said we need to remember the large increase today does not indicate growth. Percentage growth is still decreasing significantly. Really good graphs.

    It is not good though, is it. Well, just in my opinion. I hope these figures start going down soon. It may not be growth but persistent growth would be unthinkable at this stage . I cannot feel congratulatory that we do not have some kind of wild exponential growth when that would be impossible given our demographics. We are such a low density population. We have serious restrictions - supposedly. For a fair while now. And yet we have this persistence of numbers that are not great. About 40% extra on normal death numbers in a day any other year. I don't know what it is like in towns and cities, out here in the boonies it is silent, no cars, if you meet someone walking on the road we are backing up into gateways to give wider berth, the village shops are sombre places with people nervously keeping back from each other. Either this virus is bloody acrobatic or people are not staying at home somewhere.


  • #2845
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    wakka12 wrote: »
    What was the number of new cases today when excluding the german results? Case numbers getting really damn high here..Ireland passed out South Korea today

    527 new cases.


  • #2846
    Fr_Dougal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    Coyote wrote: »
    Number updated to match today's reportI have included the total numbers reported today
    resent cases
    12-4-2020 4.8%
    13-4-2020 5.46%

    No Change in number
    509428.PNG

    Slow Change
    509429.PNG

    Big Drop in numbers
    509430.PNG

    again with all of this I'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
    if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late



    interesting visualization of covid19
    http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

    Can you include number of deaths on your graphs? It would be helpful as cases aren’t the best indicator.

    Thanks.


  • #2847
    Rvsmmnps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 151 ✭✭Rvsmmnps


    They release figures that are old, to pipe up the hysteria knowing many don't look far into any details


  • #2848
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,059 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman


    wakka12 wrote: »
    What was the number of new cases today when excluding the german results? Case numbers getting really damn high here..Ireland passed out South Korea today

    527 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported by Irish laboratories
    465 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported by a laboratory in Germany


  • #2849
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    It is still growing. The most positive thing you can say is it is not accelerating.


    509432.png
    It is still growing yes. That's how mathematical growth rate works. Numbers increase but growth rate drops. The 500 odd new cases today (we can virtually ignore including the German numbers in new cases) is very little change from last week's numbers, indicating that while the numbers still increase, the growth rate is decreasing.


  • #2850
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    It is still growing. The most positive thing you can say is it is not accelerating.

    The most positive thing one can say is it is decelerating.


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  • #2851
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Tbf i picked up shopping for my folks in local town during the week....roughly 3 out of 4 were wearing masks


    That particular town,people would normally do best to.go againest any advice from government/obstruct gaurds as a pasttime....im suprised (and disappointed) that rest of country is not wearing masks :(

    If non wearing of masks at supermarkets was a significant contributor half the supermarkets in the country would be closed due to staff illness/ staff isolating. But I have not heard of one supermarket that have had to do this. Vast majority of transmission now is happening in people’s houses and in healthcare settings


This discussion has been closed.
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